Severe Thunderstorm Warning 5, NWS Jackson, MS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
157 PM CST TUE JAN 8 2008

.DISCUSSION...
DID AN UPDATE TO THE FORECAST FOR INCLUSION OF TORNADO WATCH #9 FOR
NORTHWEST QUADRANT OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH 9 PM. PRESSURE
GRADIENTS AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT ALSO NECESSITATED ISSUANCE
OF A WIND ADVISORY (SUSTAINED 30 MPH, GUSTS TO 40 MPH) FOR THE UPPER
MS DELTA UNTIL 6 PM. LAKE WIND ADVISORY ADJUSTED TO FIT AREAS
ROUGHLY ALONG (OR JUST NORTHWEST) OF THE NATCHEZ TRACE THROUGH 6 PM.

CONVECTION NOW STARTING TO ENTER INTO NORTHWEST SECTIONS OF THE CWA
ALONG COLD FRONT WITH MOST VIGOROUS STORMS NOW SKIRTING SE AR
COUNTIES AND FAR NORTHWEST MS COUNTIES. EXPECT BEST FORCING AND
SHEAR TO KEEP HIGHEST RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER (INCLUDING POSSIBLE
TORNADOES) TO NORTHWEST ZONES. MOST OF THE (SHALLOW) CONVECTION OUT
AHEAD OF THE FRONT IN THE CWA HAS BEEN KEPT IN CHECK BY LARGE
THERMAL CAP AROUND 7 TO 10 KFT. HOWEVER...ONE CELL HAS BROKEN CAP
AND IS ENTERING CATAHOULA PARISH AND WILL BE MONITORED. THERE IS
POTENTIAL MORE OF THESE PREFRONTAL CELLS COULD BREAK THE CAP AS
UPPER LEVEL ENERGY INPUT GRADUALLY INCREASES. /BB/

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...BEEN WATCHING SOME NASTY STORMS ACROSS
ARKANSAS THIS MORNING IN ASSOCIATION WITH A COLD FRONT HEADED OUR
WAY. THESE STORMS HAVE BEEN SHOWING TORNADIC CIRCULATIONS IN AN
ENVIRONMENT WHERE COMBINATIONS OF SHEAR...LIFT AND INSTABILITY ARE
MAXIMIZED. EXPECT THIS ZONE TO DANGEROUS SHEAR...LIFT AND
INSTABILITY TO CLIP THE NORTHWEST CORNER OF THE CWA LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT MOVES CLOSER. THUS...SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL BE
MAXIMIZED FROM AROUND 1 PM THROUGH 5 PM ACROSS DELTA SECTIONS OF
SE AR...FAR NW MS AND NORTHEAST LA. LOW PRESSURE FORMING ALONG THE
FRONT WILL PULL NORTH AWAY FROM THE REGION LATE TODAY WITH THE BULK
OF UPPER LEVEL ENERGY PASSING BY TO THE NORTH. THAT EVOLUTION WILL
RESULT IN A DIMINISHING SEVERE WEATHER RISK AS STORMS PROGRESS SOUTH
AND EAST THIS EVENING INTO THE BULK OF THE ARKLAMISS. HOWEVER...LOW
LEVEL JUICE (DEWPOINTS 60 TO 65 DEGREES) WILL BE ENOUGH TO ENSURE AT
LEAST SOME STORMS WILL CONTINUE ALTHOUGH THE MAIN RISKS WILL
TRANSLATE INTO DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. ATMOSPHERIC SUPPORT FOR STRONG
CONVECTION WILL SLACKEN FURTHER AS THE FRONT AND ASSOCIATED PRECIP
MOVE INTO THE SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OF THE AREA MID TO LATE EVENING.

FORECAST HAS BEEN UPDATED TO REFINE THUNDERSTORM RISKS,
PRECIPITATION TIMING, TEMPERATURES, AND DEWPOINTS TODAY AND TONIGHT.
WILL ALSO REFINE THE HWO. /BB/

&&

.AVIATION...MVFR FLIGHT CATS DUE TO CEILINGS WILL BE AROUND THE
REGION THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE DAY WITH ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS
FALLING THROUGH MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT.GUSTY SOUTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO OCCUR AT ALL SITES TODAY
AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. SHRA COVERAGE WILL
INCREASE FROM THE WEST THROUGH THE DAY THIS MORNING WITH
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE INCREASING FROM THE WEST DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING HOURS. VFR CONDITIONS WILL SPREAD EAST IN
THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT TONIGHT. /50/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       49  63  54  68 /  73  21  57  67
MERIDIAN      51  63  55  72 /  85  21  68  83
VICKSBURG     48  62  49  67 /  43  18  46  53
HATTIESBURG   52  66  58  74 /  66  27  45  57
NATCHEZ       48  63  53  69 /  49  18  47  58
GREENVILLE    44  59  48  67 /  31  13  32  39
GREENWOOD     44  60  50  65 /  46  14  42  50

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR MSZ028>033-
     037>039-043>050-053.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR MSZ018-019-
     025>027-034>036-040>042.

LA...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR LAZ007>009-
     015-016-023>025.

AR...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR ARZ074-075.

&&

50

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1127 AM CST TUE JAN 8 2008

ARZ074-075-LAZ007>009-015-016-023>026-MSZ018-019-025>066-072>074-
091730-
ASHLEY-CHICOT-MOREHOUSE-WEST CARROLL-EAST CARROLL-RICHLAND-
MADISON-FRANKLIN-CATAHOULA-TENSAS-CONCORDIA-BOLIVAR-SUNFLOWER-
LEFLORE-GRENADA-CARROLL-MONTGOMERY-WEBSTER-CLAY-LOWNDES-CHOCTAW-
OKTIBBEHA-WASHINGTON-HUMPHREYS-HOLMES-ATTALA-WINSTON-NOXUBEE-
ISSAQUENA-SHARKEY-YAZOO-LEAKE-NESHOBA-KEMPER-WARREN-HINDS-RANKIN-
SCOTT-NEWTON-LAUDERDALE-CLAIBORNE-COPIAH-SIMPSON-SMITH-JASPER-
CLARKE-JEFFERSON-ADAMS-LINCOLN-LAWRENCE-JEFFERSON DAVIS-COVINGTON-
JONES-MARION-LAMAR-FORREST-
1127 AM CST TUE JAN 8 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...
NORTHEAST LOUISIANA...AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY

A STRONG AREA OF LOW PRESSURE PASSING TO OUR NORTH WILL SEND AN
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT TOWARD THE ARKLAMISS TODAY. MOISTURE...WINDS AND
INSTABILITY WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM...MAKING
CONDITIONS FAVORABLE FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT. AS THE COLD FRONT ENTERS
THE DELTA REGION LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA
TONIGHT...A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG AND
NORTH OF THE NATCHEZ TRACE CORRIDOR. DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL
WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREATS BUT TORNADOES CANNOT BE RULED OUT. THE
RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND ASSOCIATED TORNADOES WILL BE
HIGHEST FOR AREAS OF EXTREME SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS...NORTHEAST LOUISIANA
AND NORTHWEST MISSISSIPPI NORTHWEST OF A GRENADA MISSISSIPPI TO
WINNSBORO LOUISIANA LINE.

IN ADDITION...GUSTY SOUTH WINDS WILL EXIST ACROSS THE ARKLAMISS FOR A
GOOD PORTION OF THE DAY TUESDAY. WINDS WILL BE HIGHEST OVER WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE AREA WHERE A LAKE WIND ADVISORY WILL BE IN EFFECT
FROM MID MORNING THROUGH MID AFTERNOON.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY

ANOTHER STRONG STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE ARKLAMISS REGION
THURSDAY. THIS WILL SEND A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA AND PROVIDE
ANOTHER GOOD CHANCE OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS. THINGS ARE BEGINNING
TO LINE UP FOR THURSDAY TO POSSIBLY BE MORE ACTIVE THAN TODAY.
STRONG FORCING AND SHEAR ARE EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN. IN ADDITION TO
THAT...THIS SYSTEM LOOKS TO HAVE BETTER INSTABILITY AND SHOULD POSE
A GREATER RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER. AT THIS TIME STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS LOOK POSSIBLE OVER THE ENTIRE OUTLOOK AREA...BUT AREAS
ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF THE NATCHEZ TRACE LOOK TO HAVE A GREATER
CHANCE OF SEEING SEVERE STORMS.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS...MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING
FOR AREAS OF THE ARKLAMISS NORTHWEST OF THE NATCHEZ TRACE CORRIDOR.
ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED AGAIN THURSDAY...BUT OTHERWISE ACTIVATION
IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY.

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE AT
WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/JAN. THIS INCLUDES THE GRAPHICAL HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK.

50

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
104 PM CST TUE JAN 8 2008

ARZ074-075-082005-
ASHLEY AR-CHICOT AR-
104 PM CST TUE JAN 8 2008

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND
WAS LOCATED OVER UNION COUNTY...33 MILES WEST OF WEST CROSSETT AT
104 PM CST...MOVING EAST AT 60 MPH.

THIS STORM SHOULD MOVE INTO WESTERN ASHLEY COUNTY BY 130 PM CST.
SHOULD IT MAINTAIN ITS TRACK AND INTENSITY...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
WARNING WOULD BE NEEDED.

PEOPLE IN ASHLEY AND CHICOT COUNTIES...INCLUDING THE CITIES OF
CROSSETT...DERMOTT...HAMBURG...NORTH CROSSETT AND WEST CROSSETT...
SHOULD MONITOR THIS STORM CLOSELY.

AEG

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
211 PM CST TUE JAN 8 2008

MSZ018-082040-
BOLIVAR MS-
211 PM CST TUE JAN 8 2008

A LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS MOVING ACROSS EASTERN
ARKANSAS AND IS APPROACHING BOLIVAR COUNTY. PERSONS IN BOLIVAR
COUNTY...INCLUDING THE CITIES OF CLEVELAND...ROSEDALE AND SHELBY...
SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THESE STORMS AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION
SHOULD A WARNING BE ISSUED. A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL
9 PM.

EEC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
236 PM CST TUE JAN 08 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0220 PM     HAIL             5 NE DERMOTT            33.58N 91.38W
01/08/2008  E1.75 INCH       DESHA              AR   EMERGENCY MNGR

            GOLF BALL TO QUARTER SIZED HAIL WAS REPORTED NEAR THE HWY
            65 AND HWY 165 SPLIT.

&&

JFAIRLY

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
308 PM CST TUE JAN 8 2008

MSZ018-034-082140-
BOLIVAR MS-WASHINGTON MS-
308 PM CST TUE JAN 8 2008

A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DIME SIZE HAIL
AND 50 MPH WINDS ARE MOVING ACROSS BOLIVAR AND NORTHERN WASHINGTON
COUNTIES. THESE STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST AND AFFECT THE
CITIES OF CLEVELAND...SHAW AND LELAND UNTIL 4 PM CST. PEOPLE IN
BOLIVAR AND WASHINGTON COUNTIES SHOULD MONITOR THESE STORM CLOSELY.

EEC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
311 PM CST TUE JAN 08 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0155 PM     HAIL             FOUNTAIN HILL           33.36N 91.85W
01/08/2008  E1.00 INCH       ASHLEY             AR   EMERGENCY MNGR

            QUARTER SIZE HAIL WAS REPORTED.

0245 PM     HAIL             5 N LAKE VILLAGE        33.40N 91.28W
01/08/2008  E0.25 INCH       CHICOT             AR   EMERGENCY MNGR

            PEA SIZED HAIL WAS REPORTED ON HWY 65.

&&

JFAIRLY