Severe Thunderstorm Warning 454, NWS Jackson, MS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1138 AM CDT FRI JUN 20 2008

.DISCUSSION...CENTROID OF SMALL MCS MOVING INTO WESTERN ZONES NOW
WITH VIGOROUS PROPAGATION OF CELLS DIRECTED MAINLY SOUTH INTO MODEST
LOW LEVEL JET AXIS. EXPECT AREAS OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED STORMS
ASSOCIATED WITH COMPLEX TO CONTINUE TO DRIFT SOUTHEAST TOWARD
CENTRAL MS INTO THE AFTERNOON. LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH COMPLEX WILL
LIKELY TRIGGER ADDITIONAL (ALTHOUGH MORE SCATTERED) THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF IT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WITH THIS
IN MIND I ROSE POPS AGAIN ACROSS MAINLY PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST LA AND
CENTRAL MS SOUTHWEST OF A GLH...TO NEWTON...TO LAUREL LINE. /BB/

PREVIOUS UPDATE (955 AM CDT)...FORECAST UPDATED TO SLIGHTLY INCREASE
POPS THIS MORNING...ESPECIALLY NW/WCNTRL ZONES...AS A THUNDERSTORM
COMPLEX DROPS ESEWD TOWARD THE AREA. WILL ALSO ADJUST HWO SLIGHTLY
TO REMOVE AFTERNOON WORDING TO REFLECT ISOLATED CONVECTION THIS
MORNING. THE AIR MASS REMAINS MOIST AND UNSTABLE...ESPECIALLY OVER
WRN AND SRN ZONES. A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS CENTRAL
ZONES WILL HELP FOCUS CONVECTION DURING THE DAY. /03/

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...458 AM CDT FRI JUN 20 2008 TODAY THROUGH
SATURDAY. STILL LOOKS LIKE RAIN FOR THE AREA TODAY THROUGH
TOMORROW...SO NEED FOR ANY BIG CHANGES TO THE FORECAST. MAINTAINED
LIKELY POPS FOR THE WESTERN ZONES TODAY AND TONIGHT. GUIDANCE VALUES
WERE A LITTLE LESS...BUT THE LOCAL MODEL ALSO SHOWS CONVECTION
BREAKING OUT AROUND 18Z AND COVERING MOST OF THE WESTERN ZONES.
STILL LOOKS LIKE THERE WILL BE SEVERAL ROUNDS OF WEATHER...WITH
SEVERAL DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH THE AREA. COULD NOT REALLY FIND
A COLD FRONT...SEEMS TO BE MORE OF A TROUGH AXIS SWEEPING ACROSS THE
CWA AND BECOMING THE FOCUS FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.
EITHER WAY WILL LEAVE SEVERE WORDING IN FOR TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT.
ALSO WENT SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN GUIDANCE ON POPS FOR TONIGHT AND
EARLY SATURDAY. RAIN SHOULD TAPER OFF FROM THE NORTHWEST...SO ONLY
LEFT LINGERING STUFF AROUND THE SOUTH SATURDAY NIGHT. STUCK WITH
GUIDANCE TEMPS WHICH WERE SLIGHTLY WARMER FOR TODAY. LOOKING FOR
MUCH OF THE RAIN TO BE DELAYED INTO THE AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH HIGH
CLOUDS WILL BE AROUND...FIGURE AREA WILL HAVE TIME TO WARM TO NEAR
90 BEFORE RAIN COOLS THINGS DOWN. KEPT MOST LOCATIONS NEAR 90.

THE MASSIVE STORM OVER CENTRAL TEXAS CONTINUES TO TRACK SOUTH. FOR
NOW THE MODEL AND KEEPING IT OUT OF THE CWA. THE SYSTEM SHOULD
CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTH. HOWEVER...THERE WAS A SHORT WAVE TO THE
NORTHWEST SUPPORTING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AROUND THE OZARKS. AS
THE TROUGH AXIS MOVES EAST...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BREAK OUT
ACROSS THE CWA...LIKELY IN COMBINATION WITH THE INCREASING MOISTURE
AND INSTABILITY. MODELS SUGGEST ML CAPE VALUES WILL APPROACH 2000J
AND PW VALUES WILL BE NEAR 1.75 IN. KEPT CHANCE POPS THIS
MORNING...BUT LOOKS LIKE THE BEST COVERAGE WILL BE IN THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. WITH THE SYSTEMS SEEMING TO MOVE A LITTLE SLOW...HIGHER
POPS WERE GOOD FOR THE WESTERN ZONES THROUGH THE EVENING. THE
ACTIVITY WILL SHIFT EAST OVERNIGHT. THE NAM/GFS SHOW DRY AIR MOVING
INTO THE AREA LATE SATURDAY...SO BACKED OFF ON THE RAIN THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. OVERALL...THE CURRENT FORECAST WAS GOOD. WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF A FEW TWEAKS TO THE POPS...NO REAL CHANGES WERE MADE.

LONGER TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...MEDIUM RANGE MODELS AND
ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO TRANSITION THE UPPER PATTERN FROM AN UPPER
TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS TO A MORE EARLY SUMMER LIKE PATTERN
WITH A FLAT UPPER RIDGE OVER THE REGION BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

FOR SUNDAY THE UPPER TROUGH WILL SEND A FRONT INTO THE REGION FOR
SUNDAY...WHICH WILL PUSH INTO THE SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE ARKLAMISS
BY MONDAY MORNING. PRECIPITABLE WATER ON SUNDAY WILL BE AROUND 1.5
INCHES. LIFT FROM THE FRONT AND DAYTIME HEATING AND INSTABILITY WILL
HELP SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE SOUTH HALF. THE
RAINS SHOULD END BY SUNDAY NIGHT...THEN WE WILL TRANSITION TO A
MORE DRY PATTERN AS WE GO INTO THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK. IT SHOULD
BE DRY ON MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AS THE PATTERN CHANGES TO A FLAT UPPER
RIDGE. AREA MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOWS NO REAL LOW LEVEL FLOW FROM THE
GULF AS WELL AS SOME CAPPING. THE OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL RETURN
TO THE NORTH AS A WARM FRONT ON WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AS WE START
TO GET SOME LOW LEVEL RETURN FLOW FROM THE GULF.  GFS INDICATES THAT
SEVERAL DISTURBANCES WILL COME DOWN IN NORTHWEST FLOW TO THE WEST OF
THE REGION FOR WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...WHICH WILL KEEP MOST OF THE
RAIN TO THE WEST OF THE ARKLAMISS.  THE EUROPEAN MODEL WAS A LITTLE
WEAKER WITH THE RETURN FLOW FOR NEXT WEEK. IT BROUGHT RETURN FLOW TO
THE SOUTHERN SECTIONS ONLY. THIS PATTERN WILL BE MAINLY TYPICAL
DIURNAL CONVECTION AS WE RETURN TO A TYPICAL EARLY SUMMER
PATTERN.

AS FAR AS TEMPS ARE CONCERN KEPT CLOSE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST AND USED
SOME MEX GUIDANCE FOR DAILY HIGHS AND MOS GUIDANCE FOR DAILY LOWS.
GENERALLY HIGHS WILL BE FROM THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S.  LOWS FROM
THE MIDDLE 60S TO LOWER 70S./17/

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING.
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS MORNING...MAINLY NORTH
OF I-20. CONVECTION WILL INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON FOR LOCAL IFR/MVFR
CIGS/VSBYS IN HEAVIER STORMS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       88  69  88  67 /  70  57  55  28
MERIDIAN      91  69  86  66 /  35  59  60  33
VICKSBURG     84  71  88  67 /  83  57  45  16
HATTIESBURG   94  70  88  69 /  35  60  60  32
NATCHEZ       89  69  87  68 /  72  61  61  25
GREENVILLE    83  68  87  66 /  62  57  41  13
GREENWOOD     85  68  86  66 /  48  57  48  18

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

50

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1123 AM CDT FRI JUN 20 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0823 AM     TSTM WND DMG     CANTON                  32.61N 90.03W
06/20/2008                   MADISON            MS   EMERGENCY MNGR

            NUMBER OF TREES DOWN...INCLUDING SEVERAL LARGE SNAPPED
            TREES. POWERLINES DOWN WITH ABOUT 1000 PEOPLE WITHOUT
            POWER. SHED BLOWN OVER. MICROBURST WITH WINDS LIKELY IN
            THE 60 TO 70 MPH RANGE. REPORTS FROM MADISON COUNTY EMA
            AND LOCAL MEDIA.

&&

AEG

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1258 PM CDT FRI JUN 20 2008

LAZ023>026-MSZ053-059-060-201900-
TENSAS LA-CATAHOULA LA-CONCORDIA LA-FRANKLIN LA-JEFFERSON MS-
CLAIBORNE MS-ADAMS MS-
1258 PM CDT FRI JUN 20 2008

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS MOVING ACROSS EAST CENTRAL LOUISIANA AND
INTO SOUTHWEST MISSISSIPPI THIS AFTERNOON...

A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PEA TO DIME SIZE
HAIL AND 40 TO 50 MPH WINDS WAS LOCATED FROM NEAR NEWLIGHT TO NEAR
CLAYTON AT 1258 PM CDT...MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH.

VERY HEAVY RAIN ALONG WITH FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING ARE
ALSO LIKELY WITH THESE STORMS.

PEOPLE IN CATAHOULA...CONCORDIA...AND TENSAS PARISHES...AND
ADAMS...JEFFERSON AND FRANKLIN COUNTIES...SHOULD MONITOR THESE STORMS
CLOSELY.

AEG

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