Severe Thunderstorm Warning 413, NWS Jackson, MS

000 
WWUS54 KJAN 102253
SVSJAN

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
553 PM CDT TUE JUN 10 2008

MSC127-102315-
/O.CON.KJAN.SV.W.0413.000000T0000Z-080610T2315Z/
SIMPSON MS-
553 PM CDT TUE JUN 10 2008

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 615 PM CDT
FOR SOUTH CENTRAL SIMPSON COUNTY...

AT 553 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS WERE TRACKING
A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING NICKEL SIZE HAIL...AND
DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.  THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR
PINOLA. THIS STORM WAS NEARLY STATIONARY.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
  SHIVERS BY 605 PM CDT...

HIGH WINDS CAN BRING DOWN TREES AND LARGE LIMBS RESULTING IN SERIOUS
INJURY OR PROPERTY DAMAGE. EXERCISE EXTREME CAUTION WHEN OUTDOORS
DURING SUCH STRONG WINDS...AND BE ESPECIALLY AWARE OF OLDER TREES.

LAT...LON 3189 9005 3191 8986 3186 8984 3185 8985
      3185 8984 3178 8982 3177 9003 3178 9004
TIME...MOT...LOC 2253Z 319DEG 2KT 3183 8995

$$

EEC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
255 PM CDT TUE JUN 10 2008

.SHORT TERM...ANALYSIS THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS THE FRONT ENTERING THE
NORTHWEST PORTION OF THE CWFA. RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS A FEW ISOLATED
SHOWERS HAVE BEGUN TO DEVELOP AND DRIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE CWFA...WITH MORE WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY TO
THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA.  THIS ACTIVITY IS SLOWLY
INCREASING IN COVERAGE OVER THE EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE
CWFA AND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO DO SO THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING. THE THING THAT IS HAMPERING ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON IS THAT
WITH CLOUD COVER OVER MUCH OF THE AREA TODAY HAS PREVENTED
TEMPERATURES FROM RISING TOO MUCH TODAY.  THE MORNING KJAN SOUNDING
TODAY IS NOT QUITE AS IMPRESSIVE AS YESTERDAY EITHER. SO IT LOOKS
LIKE THE MAIN AREA WHERE ACTIVITY WILL DEVELOP WILL BE AREAS MAINLY
SOUTHEAST OF THE NATCHEZ TRACE WHERE THE BEST HEATING WILL BE
LOCATED. SOME OF THE STORMS OVER THE EXTREME SOUTHEAST THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING MAY HAVE A SMALL POSSIBILITY TO BECOME
STRONG...MAINLY SOUTHEAST OF A LAUREL TO BROOKHAVEN LINE. THE MAIN
CONCERNS WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS WILL BE GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL
HAIL. MOST OF THE ACTIVITY SHOULD BE DIURNALLY DRIVEN...SO THE AREA
SHOULD QUIET DOWN ONCE HEATING SUBSIDES AND LEAVE FOR ONLY A FEW
VERY ISOLATED SHOWERS FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.

THE BOUNDARY WILL WASH OUT AND HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST
WILL PROVIDE SOUTHERLY WINDS OVER THE FORECAST AREA FOR WEDNESDAY.
THIS WILL AGAIN ALLOW FOR DECENT MOISTURE OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS
OF THE ARKLAMISS REGION ON WEDNESDAY.  THIS WILL AGAIN COMBINE WITH
DAYTIME HEATING TO GIVE WAY TO MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS.  IT AGAIN APPEARS THAT THERE WILL BE ENOUGH
INSTABILITY AND LAPSE RATES TO GIVE THE CHANCE FOR A FEW OF THE
STORMS TO BECOME STRONG ON WEDNESDAY. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD DIE OFF
AFTER HEATING SUBSIDES WEDNESDAY EVENING TO LEAVE FOR A QUIET AND
DRY OVERNIGHT PERIOD WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

HAVE REMAINED RATHER CLOSE TO GUI FOR TEMPERATURES FOR THE SHORT
TERM. OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL AGAIN BE IN THE LOWER 70S FOR THE
NEXT COUPLE OF NIGHTS WITH HIGHS REACHING THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S
FOR WEDNESDAY. /14/

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY...HOT HUMID CONDITIONS
WILL PERSIST THROUGH NEXT WEEK.  MEANWHILE...SEVERAL AREAS OF
DISTURBED WEATHER ARE EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE REGION ALLOWING RAIN
CHANCES TO EXIST EACH DAY THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.  THE GFS WAS
HINTING AT PERHAPS A SLIGHT AIRMASS CHANGE EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A WEAK
COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE REGION...BUT THE 12Z GFS HAS BACKED
OFF OF THAT SOLUTION FOR NOW AS ITS NOW ADVERTISING THE FRONT
HANGING UP NORTH OF THE AREA.  ALL IN ALL...I SEE NO REASON TO ALTER
THE LONG TERM FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON.  THEREFORE THE PREVIOUS LONG
TERM FORECAST DISCUSSION FOLLOWS. /19/

THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY...THE MODELS SUGGEST THERE WILL BE AN
AIRMASS CHANGE AT THE END OF THE PERIOD. WITH SUMMER NEARLY HERE AND
HIGH PRESSURE PLANTED OVER THE SOUTHEAST...NOT SURE A COLD FRONT
WILL MAKE IT THROUGH. THE GFS SHOWED DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER AND MID
50S...OPTED NOT TO GO WITH THE DRY AIR AT THIS TIME. GUIDANCE TEMPS
CAME IN COOLER SATURDAY...BUT WITH RAIN MOST OF THE DAY..MID 80S WAS
GOOD. OVERALL GUIDANCE WAS GOOD...STUCK PRETTY CLOSE.

THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BE BACK OVER THE AREA THURSDAY. THE 850 RIDGE
WILL BE CENTERED EAST OF THE REGION ALLOWING MID LEVEL MOISTURE TO
RETURN TO THE FORECAST AREA. A FEW WEAK DISTURBANCES MAY LIFT INTO
THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH...MAINLY INCREASING THE MOISTURE ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON. BY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION.

THE BOUNDARY WILL REACH THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA SATURDAY
MORNING AND WILL SLOWLY SINK SOUTH. THE GFS SUGGESTS THE BOUNDARY
WILL CLEAR THE CWA BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE BEST MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 20. STRONG
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT LOOKS BEST SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. THERE APPEARS
TO BE PLENTY OF SB AND ML CAPE AVAILABLE...IN ADDITION TO PW VALUES
AROUND 2 INCHES. WOULD LIKE TO SEE ANOTHER RUN OF MODELS BEFORE
MENTIONING ANY STRONG OR SEVERE WORDING IN THE HWO SATURDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN SUNDAY AFTERNOON...PUSHING THE BOUNDARY TO
THE COAST. THE MODELS BRING IN COOLER AND MUCH DRIER AIR MONDAY AND
TUESDAY. NOT SURE THE BOUNDARY WILL ACTUALLY CLEAR THE CWA. THIS
TIME OF YEAR...MANY FRONTS WASH OUT OVER THE CWA OR STALL TO THE
NORTHWEST. FOR NOW STUCK WITH GUIDANCE POPS FOR THE MOST PART. THE
GFS CAME IN WITH MUCH LOWER POPS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY... BUT WENT
WITH AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING. EXPECTING
DIURNAL ACTIVITY EACH DAY. MADE A FEW TWEAKS TO THE POPS AND TEMPS.
OVERALL NO REAL CHANGES TO THE FORECAST. /7/

&&

.AVIATION...VFR FLIGHT CATEGORIES WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE NEXT 24
HOURS.  SCT CLOUDS OF AROUND 4K FT WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.  THERE WILL ALSO BE THE POSSIBILITY FOR SOME SITES MAINLY
SOUTHEAST OF THE NATCHEZ TRACE CORRIDOR TO SEE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  THIS COULD
BRING BRIEF EFFECTS TO VSBYS AND CEILINGS FOR THESE SITES. ACTIVITY
SHOULD BEGIN TO QUIET DOWN AFTER SUNSET AS MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL
BE MAINLY DRIVEN BY DAYTIME HEATING. THIS SHOULD LEAVE FOR A QUIET
OVERNIGHT PERIOD. A FEW SITES MAY SEE PERIODS OF MVFR PATCHY FOG WITH
VSBYS AROUND 5SM...BUT OVERALL NO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED. ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE FOR MAINLY
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
/14/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       69  89  72  91 /  20  32  13  10
MERIDIAN      68  88  68  91 /  27  42  17  11
VICKSBURG     70  90  73  93 /  11  22   9   8
HATTIESBURG   69  89  70  91 /  30  48  18  21
NATCHEZ       71  88  73  90 /  19  37  12  16
GREENVILLE    71  91  73  93 /   7  13   8   9
GREENWOOD     70  90  73  92 /  12  16  11  10

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

14/17

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
236 PM CDT TUE JUN 10 2008

ARZ074-075-LAZ007>009-015-016-023>026-MSZ018-019-025>066-072>074-
111915-
ASHLEY-CHICOT-MOREHOUSE-WEST CARROLL-EAST CARROLL-RICHLAND-
MADISON LA-FRANKLIN LA-CATAHOULA-TENSAS-CONCORDIA-BOLIVAR-
SUNFLOWER-LEFLORE-GRENADA-CARROLL-MONTGOMERY-WEBSTER-CLAY-LOWNDES-
CHOCTAW-OKTIBBEHA-WASHINGTON-HUMPHREYS-HOLMES-ATTALA-WINSTON-
NOXUBEE-ISSAQUENA-SHARKEY-YAZOO-MADISON MS-LEAKE-NESHOBA-KEMPER-
WARREN-HINDS-RANKIN-SCOTT-NEWTON-LAUDERDALE-CLAIBORNE-COPIAH-
SIMPSON-SMITH-JASPER-CLARKE-JEFFERSON-ADAMS-FRANKLIN MS-LINCOLN-
LAWRENCE-JEFFERSON DAVIS-COVINGTON-JONES-MARION-LAMAR-FORREST-
236 PM CDT TUE JUN 10 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...
NORTHEAST LOUISIANA...AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY

A FEW ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER EXTREME
SOUTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF MISSISSIPPI THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...PRIMARILY FOR LOCATIONS ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF A LAUREL TO
BROOKHAVEN LINE. GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THE STRONGEST STORMS. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD BEGIN TO QUIET DOWN THIS
EVENING AS HEATING SUBSIDES.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY

ISOLATED STRONG STORMS WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHERN SECTIONS
OF THE ARKLAMISS REGION ON WEDNESDAY.  THE AIRMASS WILL REMAIN MOIST
AND UNSTABLE AND DAYTIME HEATING WILL PRODUCE SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS THAT WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS.

ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE OUTLOOK AREA SATURDAY AS A WEAK BOUNDARY TRIES TO SLOWLY
SINK SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS SHOULD NOT BE NEEDED THROUGH MONDAY.

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE AT
WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/JAN. THIS INCLUDES THE GRAPHICAL HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK.

14/19

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
357 PM CDT TUE JUN 10 2008

MSZ072-073-102125-
LAMAR MS-MARION MS-
357 PM CDT TUE JUN 10 2008

A STRONG THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PEA TO DIME SIZE HAIL AND
40 TO 50 MPH WINDS WAS LOCATED 3 MILES SOUTHEAST OF IMPROVE AT 357 PM
CDT...MOVING EAST AT 3 MPH.

DANGEROUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS ALSO POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

THIS STORM IS INTENSIFYING AND COULD BECOME SEVERE.

HIGH WINDS CAN BRING DOWN TREES AND LARGE LIMBS RESULTING IN SERIOUS
INJURY OR PROPERTY DAMAGE. EXERCISE EXTREME CAUTION WHEN OUTDOORS
DURING SUCH STRONG WINDS...AND BE ESPECIALLY AWARE OF OLDER TREES.

PEOPLE IN LAMAR AND MARION COUNTIES SHOULD MONITOR THIS STORM
CLOSELY.

CME

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
528 PM CDT TUE JUN 10 2008

MSZ054-055-062-063-102300-
LINCOLN MS-LAWRENCE MS-SIMPSON MS-COPIAH MS-
528 PM CDT TUE JUN 10 2008

A STRONG THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PEA TO DIME SIZE HAIL AND
40 TO 50 MPH WINDS WAS LOCATED 5 MILES EAST OF ROCKPORT AT 528 PM
CDT. THE STORM WAS NEARLY STATIONARY.

HIGH WINDS CAN BRING DOWN TREES AND LARGE LIMBS RESULTING IN SERIOUS
INJURY OR PROPERTY DAMAGE. EXERCISE EXTREME CAUTION WHEN OUTDOORS
DURING SUCH STRONG WINDS...AND BE ESPECIALLY AWARE OF OLDER TREES.

PEOPLE IN COPIAH...LAWRENCE...LINCOLN AND SIMPSON COUNTIES...
INCLUDING THE CITY OF PINOLA...SHOULD MONITOR THIS STORM CLOSELY.

EEC