Severe Thunderstorm Warning 376, NWS Jackson, MS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
409 PM CDT SAT MAY 24 2008

.DISCUSSION...SHORT TERM(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT) REMNANTS OF
THE UPSTREAM MCS REFORMING SEWD INTO THE NORTHERN THIRD OF MS THIS
AFTERNOON COMING DOWN THE E SIDE OF MID-UPPER RIDGE AXIS OVER
ARKLATX. EARLIER RUNS OF NCEP ARW/WRF 4KM BROUGHT THE COMPLEX SEWD
ALONG A BACKDOOR FRONTAL BOUNDARY THROUGH NERN THIRD OF MS AND THE
12Z NAM12 WAS SIMILAR BUT A LITTLE TOO FAST. KEPT RAISED POPS TO
LIKELY CATEGORY FOR NERN MS UNTIL 00Z THEN CHANCE POPS OVER ERN MS
DURING THE 00-03Z TIME FRAME. AIRMASS ANALYSIS INDICATES STRONG
INSTABILITY ACROSS THE AREA SBCAPES 4000+J/KG...MLCAPES 3000-3500
J/KG AND 7-500MB LAPSE RATES OF NEAR 6.5-7C/KM. HAVE INCLUDED GUSTY
WINDS FOR NERN MS WITH THE STORMS THROUGH THIS EVENING.

LATER TONIGHT...THE SURGE OF SLIGHTLY DRIER LOW LEVEL AIR PROGRESSES
SWD THROUGH THE CWFA WITH 850MB HIGH CENTER SETTING UP ACROSS CENTRAL
MS BY SUNDAY MORNING. THIS DRYING SHOULD FORCE THE AFTERNOON
CONVECTION ON SUNDAY FARTHER S TO INTERACT WITH THE SEA BREEZE EDGING
NWD FROM THE COAST. WILL KEEP POPS ON THE ISOLATED SIDE FOR SUNDAY
UNTIL SMALL SCALE FEATURES ARE BETTER RESOLVED. EVEN LESS ACTION
EXPECTED TO LINGER INTO SUNDAY EVENING WITH A MORE TYPICAL DIURNAL
SUMMER CYCLE BECOMING THE RULE.

LOWER MAX TEMPS THAN EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AS THE ELUSIVE 90F BEING
STUBBORN THIS YEAR. READINGS ONLY BOTTOM TONIGHT AND SUNDAY NIGHT FROM
ABOUT 68-73F WHILE HIGHS SUNDAY 88-93F. THE HOURLY CURVES WILL BE
FLATTENED OUT A BIT RESULT WITH IN/OUT STRATUS CLOUD LAYERS EARLY IN
THE MORNING HOURS./40/

LONG TERM(MEMORIAL DAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...FOR THE 12Z RUN MEDIUM RANGE
AND ENSEMBLES ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THE UPPER PATTERN FOR THE
PERIOD. UPPER RIDGE OVER THE REGION WILL MODIFY SOME AS CANADIAN
SHORT WAVE DEVELOPS AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN US...PUTTING THE
THE REGION IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THIS WILL SEND A WEAK FRONT
THROUGH THE REGION AT MIDWEEK WITH A PRETTY GOOD CHANCE OF RAIN. BY
FRIDAY THE UPPER TROUGH WILL KICK OUT AS THE UPPER RIDGE DEVELOPS
FROM THE WEST. A SHORT WAVE WILL PUSH OUT OF SOUTHWEST CANADA...WHICH
WILL HELP AN UPPER TROUGH TO DEVELOP OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE
CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON SATURDAY. THIS WILL WEAKEN SOME THE
UPPER RIDGE OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. AS FAR AS POPS ARE
CONCERN STICKING WITH CURRENT FORECAST POPS...WITH THE BEST POPS FOR
AROUND THE TIME FOR FRONTAL PASSAGE AT MIDWEEK. ALSO KEPT CLOSE TO
CURRENT FORECAST TEMPS FOR MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. TEMPS FOR TUESDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY LOOKED TO BE ON TRACK. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE
LOWER 80S TO LOWER 90S. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 60S TO LOWER
70S./17/

PREVIOUS LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...MEDIUM RANGE MODELS
ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH THE LONG TERM STARTING OUT WARMER THAN
NORMAL AND HUMID FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT PASSAGE BY MID WEEK THEN A
SLOW RETURN TO WARMER THAN NORMAL AND HUMID BY NEXT WEEKEND. THE
UPPER LEVEL HIGH WILL WEAKEN AND SHIFT WEST MONDAY WHILE THE SURFACE
SLIDES SOUTH WHILE RIDGING WEST ACROSS OUR CWFA THROUGH TUESDAY. THE
SLIGHTLY COOLER AND DRIER AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WEDGING DOWN THE EAST COAST WILL INITIALLY REMAIN EAST OF
OUR CWFA MONDAY...BUT FILTER INTO OUR SOUTHEAST TUESDAY. SURFACE DEW
POINTS IN THE LOWER 70S AND PWS IN EXCESS OF AN INCH AND A HALF
MONDAY WILL FUEL SCATTERED DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS BUT THEN BECOME LIMITED TO ISOLATED CONVECTION ONLY IN
THE NORTH TUESDAY. THERE WAS LITTLE SPREAD IN GUIDANCE TEMPS AND
POPS THROUGH TUESDAY. AN UPPER TROUGH WILL DEEPEN OVER THE EASTERN
CONUS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WHILE THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING REBUILDS
OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS. THIS WILL PLACE OUR REGION UNDER NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT AND HELP A WEAK COLD FRONT DROP THROUGH OUR AREA
WEDNESDAY. THE GREATEST CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD RAIN THROUGH THE LONG
TERM IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY WITH THE FRONT. THE 1030MB HIGH NORTH OF
THE COLD FRONT WILL WEAKEN AS IT SHIFTS EAST... BUT BE STRONG ENOUGH
TO PUSH THE COLD FRONT SOUTH OF OUR CWFA THURSDAY MORNING. DRY AIR
IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WILL PROVIDE DRY WEATHER LATE THURSDAY
MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY. VERY WEAK RETURN FLOW IS EXPECTED FRIDAY
AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY. BOTH GFS AND ECMWF SHOW ANOTHER NORTHERN
STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH HELPING SEND ANOTHER COLD FRONT INTO THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY SATURDAY. THIS FRONT MAY HELP INCREASE RAIN CHANCES
AGAIN FOR SUNDAY. MEX TEMPS AND POPS WERE STUCK CLOSE TO FOR THE
LATER HALF OF THE PERIOD. /22/

&&

.AVIATION...BROKEN CLOUD LAYER 3-4K FEET SHOULD THIN OUT AND LIFT BY
02Z HOWEVER LEAVING VFR/MVFR PREVAILING FOR CENTRAL AND SRN PORTIONS
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. LOOK FOR SHRA/TSRA TO INCREASE THROUGH 02Z
MAINLY NE OF A CLEVELAND-GREENWOOD-MERIDIAN LINE BEFORE SUNSET AS
CONVECTION BUILDS SEWD. LOCAL IFR LIKELY WITH THESE STORMS BUT MOST
SHOULD EXIT CWFA BY 03Z TONIGHT LEAVING MVFR FOG VISIBILITIES/PATCHY
CEILINGS 08-13Z. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD AGAIN RULE BY 15Z SUNDAY./40/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       70  93  71  88 /  13   9   9  37
MERIDIAN      67  92  69  87 /  29   9  10  38
VICKSBURG     70  94  72  91 /  13   9   8  34
HATTIESBURG   71  93  72  88 /  29  14  10  26
NATCHEZ       71  94  72  90 /  13   9   9  26
GREENVILLE    71  94  73  92 /  13   9   8  31
GREENWOOD     70  93  73  88 /  13   9   8  34

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
244 PM CDT SAT MAY 24 2008

ARZ074-075-LAZ007>009-015-016-023>026-MSZ018-019-025>066-072>074-
251945-
ASHLEY-CHICOT-MOREHOUSE-WEST CARROLL-EAST CARROLL-RICHLAND-
MADISON LA-FRANKLIN LA-CATAHOULA-TENSAS-CONCORDIA-BOLIVAR-
SUNFLOWER-LEFLORE-GRENADA-CARROLL-MONTGOMERY-WEBSTER-CLAY-LOWNDES-
CHOCTAW-OKTIBBEHA-WASHINGTON-HUMPHREYS-HOLMES-ATTALA-WINSTON-
NOXUBEE-ISSAQUENA-SHARKEY-YAZOO-MADISON MS-LEAKE-NESHOBA-KEMPER-
WARREN-HINDS-RANKIN-SCOTT-NEWTON-LAUDERDALE-CLAIBORNE-COPIAH-
SIMPSON-SMITH-JASPER-CLARKE-JEFFERSON-ADAMS-FRANKLIN MS-LINCOLN-
LAWRENCE-JEFFERSON DAVIS-COVINGTON-JONES-MARION-LAMAR-FORREST-
244 PM CDT SAT MAY 24 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...
NORTHEAST LOUISIANA...AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT AND SUNDAY

ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY THIS
EVENING...MAINLY ACROSS THE HIGHWAY 82 CORRIDOR EAST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER BEFORE 9 PM. THE PRIMARY RISK FROM THE MOST INTENSE
STORMS WILL BE FREQUENT LIGHTNING STRIKES...WIND GUSTS OF 50 MPH AND
POSSIBLY SMALL HAIL ALONG WITH BRIEF VERY HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

THE COMBINATION OF DAYTIME HEAT AND HIGHER MOISTURE LEVELS WILL FUEL
AN UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE LEADING TO THE STRONGER STORMS WHICH SHOULD
ALL DIMINISH LATER IN THE EVENING.

OVERALL...THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE FEWER AND LESS INTENSE ON SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY.

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE AT
WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/JAN. THIS INCLUDES THE GRAPHICAL HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK.

40

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
724 PM CDT SAT MAY 24 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0715 PM     TSTM WND DMG     MACON                   33.11N 88.56W
05/24/2008                   NOXUBEE            MS   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            TREES DOWN ON POWER LINES AND SIGNS DOWN AT A STORE.

&&

JFAIRLY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
733 PM CDT SAT MAY 24 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0652 PM     TSTM WND DMG     BROOKSVILLE             33.23N 88.58W
05/24/2008                   NOXUBEE            MS   FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

            POWERLINES WERE BLOWN DOWN ON THE WEST SIDE OF
            BROOKSVILLE.

&&

EC

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
803 PM CDT SAT MAY 24 2008

MSZ050-051-056-057-250205-
SMITH MS-JASPER MS-NEWTON MS-SCOTT MS-
803 PM CDT SAT MAY 24 2008

A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PEA TO DIME SIZE
HAIL AND 40 TO 50 MPH WINDS WAS LOCATED FROM 4 MILES EAST OF HOMEWOOD
TO 4 MILES NORTHEAST OF TURNERVILLE AT 803 PM CDT...MOVING SOUTH AT
14 MPH.

VERY HEAVY RAIN ALONG WITH CONTINUOUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING ARE
ALSO POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS.

PEOPLE IN JASPER...NEWTON...SCOTT AND SMITH COUNTIES...INCLUDING THE
CITIES OF FOREST AND STRINGER...SHOULD MONITOR THESE STORMS CLOSELY.

BYB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
805 PM CDT SAT MAY 24 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0710 PM     HAIL             3 N MACON               33.16N 88.56W
05/24/2008  E0.75 INCH       NOXUBEE            MS   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            PENNY SIZE HAIL WAS REPORTED BY NOXUBEE 911.

&&

EC

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