Severe Thunderstorm Warning 370, NWS Jackson, MS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
409 PM CDT SAT MAY 24 2008

.DISCUSSION...SHORT TERM(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT) REMNANTS OF
THE UPSTREAM MCS REFORMING SEWD INTO THE NORTHERN THIRD OF MS THIS
AFTERNOON COMING DOWN THE E SIDE OF MID-UPPER RIDGE AXIS OVER
ARKLATX. EARLIER RUNS OF NCEP ARW/WRF 4KM BROUGHT THE COMPLEX SEWD
ALONG A BACKDOOR FRONTAL BOUNDARY THROUGH NERN THIRD OF MS AND THE
12Z NAM12 WAS SIMILAR BUT A LITTLE TOO FAST. KEPT RAISED POPS TO
LIKELY CATEGORY FOR NERN MS UNTIL 00Z THEN CHANCE POPS OVER ERN MS
DURING THE 00-03Z TIME FRAME. AIRMASS ANALYSIS INDICATES STRONG
INSTABILITY ACROSS THE AREA SBCAPES 4000+J/KG...MLCAPES 3000-3500
J/KG AND 7-500MB LAPSE RATES OF NEAR 6.5-7C/KM. HAVE INCLUDED GUSTY
WINDS FOR NERN MS WITH THE STORMS THROUGH THIS EVENING.

LATER TONIGHT...THE SURGE OF SLIGHTLY DRIER LOW LEVEL AIR PROGRESSES
SWD THROUGH THE CWFA WITH 850MB HIGH CENTER SETTING UP ACROSS CENTRAL
MS BY SUNDAY MORNING. THIS DRYING SHOULD FORCE THE AFTERNOON
CONVECTION ON SUNDAY FARTHER S TO INTERACT WITH THE SEA BREEZE EDGING
NWD FROM THE COAST. WILL KEEP POPS ON THE ISOLATED SIDE FOR SUNDAY
UNTIL SMALL SCALE FEATURES ARE BETTER RESOLVED. EVEN LESS ACTION
EXPECTED TO LINGER INTO SUNDAY EVENING WITH A MORE TYPICAL DIURNAL
SUMMER CYCLE BECOMING THE RULE.

LOWER MAX TEMPS THAN EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AS THE ELUSIVE 90F BEING
STUBBORN THIS YEAR. READINGS ONLY BOTTOM TONIGHT AND SUNDAY NIGHT FROM
ABOUT 68-73F WHILE HIGHS SUNDAY 88-93F. THE HOURLY CURVES WILL BE
FLATTENED OUT A BIT RESULT WITH IN/OUT STRATUS CLOUD LAYERS EARLY IN
THE MORNING HOURS./40/

LONG TERM(MEMORIAL DAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...FOR THE 12Z RUN MEDIUM RANGE
AND ENSEMBLES ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THE UPPER PATTERN FOR THE
PERIOD. UPPER RIDGE OVER THE REGION WILL MODIFY SOME AS CANADIAN
SHORT WAVE DEVELOPS AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN US...PUTTING THE
THE REGION IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THIS WILL SEND A WEAK FRONT
THROUGH THE REGION AT MIDWEEK WITH A PRETTY GOOD CHANCE OF RAIN. BY
FRIDAY THE UPPER TROUGH WILL KICK OUT AS THE UPPER RIDGE DEVELOPS
FROM THE WEST. A SHORT WAVE WILL PUSH OUT OF SOUTHWEST CANADA...WHICH
WILL HELP AN UPPER TROUGH TO DEVELOP OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE
CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON SATURDAY. THIS WILL WEAKEN SOME THE
UPPER RIDGE OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. AS FAR AS POPS ARE
CONCERN STICKING WITH CURRENT FORECAST POPS...WITH THE BEST POPS FOR
AROUND THE TIME FOR FRONTAL PASSAGE AT MIDWEEK. ALSO KEPT CLOSE TO
CURRENT FORECAST TEMPS FOR MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. TEMPS FOR TUESDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY LOOKED TO BE ON TRACK. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE
LOWER 80S TO LOWER 90S. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 60S TO LOWER
70S./17/

PREVIOUS LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...MEDIUM RANGE MODELS
ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH THE LONG TERM STARTING OUT WARMER THAN
NORMAL AND HUMID FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT PASSAGE BY MID WEEK THEN A
SLOW RETURN TO WARMER THAN NORMAL AND HUMID BY NEXT WEEKEND. THE
UPPER LEVEL HIGH WILL WEAKEN AND SHIFT WEST MONDAY WHILE THE SURFACE
SLIDES SOUTH WHILE RIDGING WEST ACROSS OUR CWFA THROUGH TUESDAY. THE
SLIGHTLY COOLER AND DRIER AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WEDGING DOWN THE EAST COAST WILL INITIALLY REMAIN EAST OF
OUR CWFA MONDAY...BUT FILTER INTO OUR SOUTHEAST TUESDAY. SURFACE DEW
POINTS IN THE LOWER 70S AND PWS IN EXCESS OF AN INCH AND A HALF
MONDAY WILL FUEL SCATTERED DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS BUT THEN BECOME LIMITED TO ISOLATED CONVECTION ONLY IN
THE NORTH TUESDAY. THERE WAS LITTLE SPREAD IN GUIDANCE TEMPS AND
POPS THROUGH TUESDAY. AN UPPER TROUGH WILL DEEPEN OVER THE EASTERN
CONUS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WHILE THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING REBUILDS
OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS. THIS WILL PLACE OUR REGION UNDER NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT AND HELP A WEAK COLD FRONT DROP THROUGH OUR AREA
WEDNESDAY. THE GREATEST CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD RAIN THROUGH THE LONG
TERM IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY WITH THE FRONT. THE 1030MB HIGH NORTH OF
THE COLD FRONT WILL WEAKEN AS IT SHIFTS EAST... BUT BE STRONG ENOUGH
TO PUSH THE COLD FRONT SOUTH OF OUR CWFA THURSDAY MORNING. DRY AIR
IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WILL PROVIDE DRY WEATHER LATE THURSDAY
MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY. VERY WEAK RETURN FLOW IS EXPECTED FRIDAY
AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY. BOTH GFS AND ECMWF SHOW ANOTHER NORTHERN
STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH HELPING SEND ANOTHER COLD FRONT INTO THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY SATURDAY. THIS FRONT MAY HELP INCREASE RAIN CHANCES
AGAIN FOR SUNDAY. MEX TEMPS AND POPS WERE STUCK CLOSE TO FOR THE
LATER HALF OF THE PERIOD. /22/

&&

.AVIATION...BROKEN CLOUD LAYER 3-4K FEET SHOULD THIN OUT AND LIFT BY
02Z HOWEVER LEAVING VFR/MVFR PREVAILING FOR CENTRAL AND SRN PORTIONS
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. LOOK FOR SHRA/TSRA TO INCREASE THROUGH 02Z
MAINLY NE OF A CLEVELAND-GREENWOOD-MERIDIAN LINE BEFORE SUNSET AS
CONVECTION BUILDS SEWD. LOCAL IFR LIKELY WITH THESE STORMS BUT MOST
SHOULD EXIT CWFA BY 03Z TONIGHT LEAVING MVFR FOG VISIBILITIES/PATCHY
CEILINGS 08-13Z. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD AGAIN RULE BY 15Z SUNDAY./40/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       70  93  71  88 /  13   9   9  37
MERIDIAN      67  92  69  87 /  29   9  10  38
VICKSBURG     70  94  72  91 /  13   9   8  34
HATTIESBURG   71  93  72  88 /  29  14  10  26
NATCHEZ       71  94  72  90 /  13   9   9  26
GREENVILLE    71  94  73  92 /  13   9   8  31
GREENWOOD     70  93  73  88 /  13   9   8  34

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
215 PM CDT SAT MAY 24 2008

MSZ018-019-025-242000-
BOLIVAR MS-SUNFLOWER MS-LEFLORE MS-
215 PM CDT SAT MAY 24 2008

...STRONG THUNDERSTORM MOVING SOUTHEAST TOWARD PARCHMAN/ROME AREAS...

A STRONG THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING VERY HEAVY RAIN WAS
LOCATED 4 MILES NORTHWEST OF ROME AT 215 PM CDT...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT
15 MPH. THIS STORM COULD AFFECT THE PARCHMAN AREA AS WELL BY 235 PM
WITH DANGEROUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...PEA SIZE HAIL...GUSTY
WINDS TO 40 MPH AND BRIEF HEAVY RAINS UP TO ONE HALF INCH.

HIGH WINDS CAN BRING DOWN TREES AND LARGE LIMBS RESULTING IN SERIOUS
INJURY OR PROPERTY DAMAGE. EXERCISE EXTREME CAUTION WHEN OUTDOORS
DURING SUCH STRONG WINDS...AND BE ESPECIALLY AWARE OF OLDER TREES.

PEOPLE IN BOLIVAR...LEFLORE AND SUNFLOWER COUNTIES...INCLUDING THE
CITIES OF DREW...PARCHMAN AND RULEVILLE...SHOULD MONITOR THIS STORM
CLOSELY.

40

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
422 PM CDT SAT MAY 24 2008

ARZ075-MSZ018-019-025>027-034>036-242220-
CHICOT AR-BOLIVAR MS-SUNFLOWER MS-GRENADA MS-LEFLORE MS-CARROLL MS-
WASHINGTON MS-HOLMES MS-HUMPHREYS MS-
422 PM CDT SAT MAY 24 2008

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS MOVING THROUGH PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST
MISSISSIPPI AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS...

A STRONG THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PEA TO DIME SIZE HAIL AND
40 TO 50 MPH WINDS WAS LOCATED 3 MILES SOUTHWEST OF ITTA BENA AT 422
PM CDT...MOVING SOUTH AT 11 MPH.

OTHER STRONG THUNDERSTORMS AT 420 PM WERE DEVELOPING ACROSS OTHER
AREAS OF
BOLIVAR...SUNFLOWER...LEFLORE...CARROLL...GRENADA...HUMPHREYS AND
HOLMES COUNTIES. THESE STORMS WERE DRIFTING SOUTH OR SOUTHEAST
AROUND 10 MPH.

VERY HEAVY RAIN ALONG WITH CONTINUOUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING ARE
ALSO POSSIBLE WITH ANY OF THESE STORMS. AN ISOLATED SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM THROUGH 600 PM IS POSSIBLE.

PEOPLE IN BOLIVAR...CARROLL...CHICOT...GRENADA...HOLMES...
HUMPHREYS...LEFLORE...SUNFLOWER AND WASHINGTON COUNTIES...INCLUDING
THE CITIES OF AVON...CLEVELAND...GREENVILLE...GREENWOOD...
INDIANOLA...ITTA BENA...LELAND...MOORHEAD...ROSEDALE...RULEVILLE AND
SHAW...SHOULD MONITOR THIS STORM CLOSELY.

BYB

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