Severe Thunderstorm Warning 221, NWS Jackson, MS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1125 AM CDT FRI APR 11 2008

.DISCUSSION...THE CAP HAS ERODED OVER THE REGION AND SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED. WITH HEALTHY MID LEVEL FLOW AND
SURFACE DEWPOINTS UP TO 70 DEGREES WE WILL SEE A CONTINUED POTENTIAL
FOR SEVERE STORMS FOR AREAS AHEAD OF THE FRONT. A SMALLER CHANCE FOR
TORNADO DEVELOPMENT REMAINS BUT THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER RISK
TODAY WILL BE DAMAGING WIND AND HAIL.  MODELS SHOW THE WIND FIELDS
VEERING AT LOWER LEVELS DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON...WHICH WILL
HAMPER TORNADO DEVELOPMENT...BUT EXPANSIVE DRY LAYERS AT MID AND
UPPER LEVELS WILL CONTRIBUTE SIGNIFICANTLY TO THE POSSIBILITY OF
DAMAGING WIND IN SEVERE STORMS TODAY.

GENERALLY INCREASED AFTERNOON HIGHS FROM THE NATCHEZ TRACE EWD...
ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS OVER SERN MS. SATELLITE PIX SHOW THE MOST
CAPPED REGION OVER SERN ZONES ALTHOUGH THE CAP WILL WEAKEN WITH TIME
THERE AND ALLOW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE.
IN THE MEANTIME AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL WARM A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
THOSE PREVIOUSLY FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION...MVFR TO VFR FLIGHT CATEGORIES WITH CEILINGS GENERALLY
BETWEEN 2K-4K FEET WILL PREVAIL FOR MOST OF THE REGION THROUGH THE
DAY AS A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.  THIS WILL
BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO AREAS MAINLY AROUND THE NATCHEZ
TRACE CORRIDOR AND SOUTHEAST OF THIS AREA...MAINLY AFFECTING ALL
SITES EXCEPT KGLH. THIS ACTIVITY COULD BRING PERIODS OF IFR FLIGHT
CATEGORIES DUE TO VSBY RESTRICTIONS FROM RAIN. CEILINGS AND
CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST TODAY.  KGLH
SHOULD BE PREVAILING WITH VFR FLIGHT CATEGORIES BY AROUND THE TIME
THE 18Z PACKAGE IS ISSUED.  CONDITIONS WILL RETURN TO VFR FOR KHBG
AND KMEI CLOSER TO THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AS THE FRONT WILL
BE MOVING OUT OF THESE AREAS LAST. /14/

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

03/14

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
915 AM CDT FRI APR 11 2008

ARZ074-075-LAZ007>009-015-016-023>026-MSZ018-019-025>066-072>074-
121000-
ASHLEY-CHICOT-MOREHOUSE-WEST CARROLL-EAST CARROLL-RICHLAND-
MADISON LA-FRANKLIN LA-CATAHOULA-TENSAS-CONCORDIA-BOLIVAR-
SUNFLOWER-LEFLORE-GRENADA-CARROLL-MONTGOMERY-WEBSTER-CLAY-LOWNDES-
CHOCTAW-OKTIBBEHA-WASHINGTON-HUMPHREYS-HOLMES-ATTALA-WINSTON-
NOXUBEE-ISSAQUENA-SHARKEY-YAZOO-MADISON MS-LEAKE-NESHOBA-KEMPER-
WARREN-HINDS-RANKIN-SCOTT-NEWTON-LAUDERDALE-CLAIBORNE-COPIAH-
SIMPSON-SMITH-JASPER-CLARKE-JEFFERSON-ADAMS-FRANKLIN MS-LINCOLN-
LAWRENCE-JEFFERSON DAVIS-COVINGTON-JONES-MARION-LAMAR-FORREST-
915 AM CDT FRI APR 11 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...
NORTHEAST LOUISIANA...AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM
LATE MORNING THROUGH EARLY EVENING...MAINLY EAST OF A LINE FROM
HARRISONBURG LOUISIANA...TO GRENADA. THE GREATEST RISK OF SEVERE
WEATHER TODAY WILL BE IN AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF THE NATCHEZ TRACE
PARKWAY CORRIDOR. DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY
RISK WITH ANY SEVERE STORMS. THE MOST INTENSE STORMS COULD PRODUCE
WINDS IN EXCESS OF 70 MPH AND HAIL TO THE SIZE OF GOLFBALLS.

A COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE AREA TODAY. BY LATE
MORNING...THE FRONT WILL BE ALONG A LINE FROM HARRISONBURG TO
GRENADA BY 11 AM...AND BY 6 PM SHOULD BE ALONG THE INTERSTATE 59
CORRIDOR. AHEAD OF THE LINE...DAYTIME HEATING WILL RESULT IN A VERY
WARM...MOIST AND UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE. THE COMBINATION OF THE
APPROACHING FRONT AND STRONG INSTABILITY WILL RESULT IN THE
DEVELOPMENT OF VIGOROUS THUNDERSTORMS...SOME OF WHICH COULD
PRODUCE WIND DAMAGE AND HAIL. VERY DRY AIR ALOFT IN THE ATMOSPHERE
WILL ENHANCE THIS RISK...RESULTING IN THE POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST A
FEW INCIDENTS OF SIGNIFICANT WIND AND HAIL.

WINDS IN LOWER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE WEAKENING THROUGH
THE DAY...RESULTING IN A DIMINISHING RISK OF TORNADOES. HOWEVER...
THERE WILL STILL BE AT LEAST A LOW TORNADO RISK THROUGH THE
DAY...AND IT WILL LIKELY BE MAXIMIZED BETWEEN ABOUT 11 AM AND 3 PM.

THE RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL END WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD
FRONT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER WILL BE LOW.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS...MAY BE NEEDED TODAY OVER THE SOUTHEAST TWO-THIRDS
OF THE OUTLOOK AREA. OTHERWISE...ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED SATURDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY.

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE AT
WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/JAN. THIS INCLUDES THE GRAPHICAL HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1056 AM CDT FRI APR 11 2008

MSZ027>029-111640-
WEBSTER MS-CARROLL MS-MONTGOMERY MS-
1056 AM CDT FRI APR 11 2008

A STRONG THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PEA TO DIME SIZE HAIL AND
40 TO 50 MPH WINDS WAS LOCATED 7 MILES EAST OF COILA AT 1056 AM
CDT...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 55 MPH. THIS STORM WILL AFFECT MUCH OF
MONTGOMERY AND WESTERN WEBSTER COUNTIES.

PEOPLE IN CARROLL...MONTGOMERY AND WEBSTER COUNTIES...INCLUDING THE
CITIES OF BLACK HAWK AND WINONA...SHOULD MONITOR THIS STORM CLOSELY.

EEC

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1114 AM CDT FRI APR 11 2008

MSZ036-111645-
HOLMES MS-
1114 AM CDT FRI APR 11 2008

A STRONG THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PEA TO DIME SIZE HAIL AND
40 TO 50 MPH WINDS WAS LOCATED 4 MILES NORTH OF THORNTON AT 1114 AM
CDT...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH. THIS STORM WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
NORTHEAST ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTHERN HOLMES COUNTY...AFFECTING THE
TCHULA AREA.

PEOPLE IN HOLMES COUNTY...INCLUDING THE CITY OF TCHULA...SHOULD
MONITOR THIS STORM CLOSELY.

EEC