Severe Thunderstorm Warning 185, NWS Jackson, MS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1008 PM CDT MON MAR 31 2008

.DISCUSSION...WILL DO A QUICK UPDATE TO REMOVE THE LKY. SHOWERS WERE
SLOWLY DISSIPATING ACROSS THE NORTH...WITH LITTLE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS
THE SOUTH. MADE SOME SMALL ADJUSTMENTS TO THE POPS TO HOLD OFF ACROSS
THE SOUTH AND EAST UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT. ADJUSTED HOURLY VALUES TO
FOR SLOWER COOLING TREND AND LOWERED WINDS SLIGHTLY ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST. LOOKS LIKE WIND SPEEDS WILL REMAIN IN THE 10-20 MPH RANGE
THROUGH THE NIGHT. STILL LOOKING FOR THE LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS TO MOVE INTO THE NORTHWEST ZONES AROUND MIDNIGHT. LAPS SHOWS A
LITTLE INSTABILITY...MAYBE 500J ALONG AND WEST OF THE RIVER.
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THERE MAYBE SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY...LAPSE RATES
WERE OK...BUT THERE WAS VERY LITTLE SHEAR. ANYWAY...WILL NOT MAKE ANY
OTHER ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST. THE TEMPS WERE GOOD. MAY ADD
MENTION OF STRONG STORMS FOR THE NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT...ALTHOUGH
CONDITIONS LOOK MARGINAL. THE LINE OF STORMS STILL LOOK STRONG AND
MODELS SHOW THE LINE HOLDING TOGETHER AS IT MOVES INTO THE CWA.

&&

.AVIATION...
WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED FOR MOST OF THE AREA. THERE MAY BE AN
OCCASIONAL GUST TO 20KTS...BUT FOR THE MOST PART SUSTAINED WILL
REMAIN AROUND 10-15KT THROUGH THE NIGHT. FORECAST WILL BE DIFFICULT
FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD. THE TIMING OF THE LINE OF STORMS WAS STILL
UNCERTAIN. FOR NOW WILL CONTINUE TO BRING STORMS INTO GLH AROUND
6-10Z...GWO 8-11...JAN11-15...GTR12-16...MEI/HBG 17-20. THE STORMS
WILL CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING...BUT SOME
SHOWER WILL LIKELY LINGER AROUND HBG THRU 00Z. WILL GO WITH VFR
CONDITIONS AT GLH/GWO AND MVFR CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE BY 00Z.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       63  73  56  73 /  72  80  47  18
MERIDIAN      61  73  57  74 /  49  83  66  26
VICKSBURG     64  73  55  72 /  84  80  34  15
HATTIESBURG   63  75  61  77 /  33  80  57  33
NATCHEZ       64  74  57  74 /  76  80  38  16
GREENVILLE    61  68  51  66 /  92  67  15  14
GREENWOOD     61  69  51  69 /  89  72  22  14

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

7

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
835 PM CDT MON MAR 31 2008

ARZ074-075-LAZ007>009-015-016-023>026-MSZ018-019-025>066-072>074-
020145-
ASHLEY-CHICOT-MOREHOUSE-WEST CARROLL-EAST CARROLL-RICHLAND-
MADISON LA-FRANKLIN LA-CATAHOULA-TENSAS-CONCORDIA-BOLIVAR-
SUNFLOWER-LEFLORE-GRENADA-CARROLL-MONTGOMERY-WEBSTER-CLAY-LOWNDES-
CHOCTAW-OKTIBBEHA-WASHINGTON-HUMPHREYS-HOLMES-ATTALA-WINSTON-
NOXUBEE-ISSAQUENA-SHARKEY-YAZOO-MADISON MS-LEAKE-NESHOBA-KEMPER-
WARREN-HINDS-RANKIN-SCOTT-NEWTON-LAUDERDALE-CLAIBORNE-COPIAH-
SIMPSON-SMITH-JASPER-CLARKE-JEFFERSON-ADAMS-FRANKLIN MS-LINCOLN-
LAWRENCE-JEFFERSON DAVIS-COVINGTON-JONES-MARION-LAMAR-FORREST-
835 PM CDT MON MAR 31 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...
NORTHEAST LOUISIANA...AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT AND TUESDAY
ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR THE NORTHWEST
PORTIONS OF THE OUTLOOK AREA OVERNIGHT. WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH AND PEA
TO DIME SIZED HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERNS.

BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON...ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE POSSIBLE ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 20. DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE
THE PRIMARY RISK...HOWEVER LARGE HAIL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE.

A COLD FRONT WILL DROP INTO THE ARKLAMISS REGION LATE TONIGHT AND SLOWLY
MOVE SOUTH AND EAST ACROSS THE OUTLOOK THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THE
COLD FRONT WILL REACH THE CENTRAL SECTIONS OF THE AREA DURING PRIME
DAYTIME HEATING TUESDAY. NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA. ADEQUATE MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY ALONG
WITH THE LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT MAY LEAD TO A FEW STRONG
TO SEVERE STORMS ACROSS THE SOUTH IN THE AFTERNOON. THE SYSTEM WILL
CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES SOUTH THROUGH THE EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY.

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE AT
WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/JAN. THIS INCLUDES THE GRAPHICAL HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1211 AM CDT TUE APR 1 2008

MSZ018-019-010610-
BOLIVAR MS-SUNFLOWER MS-
1211 AM CDT TUE APR 1 2008

A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PEA TO DIME SIZE
HAIL AND 40 TO 50 MPH WINDS WAS LOCATED IN THE GUNNISON TO ROSEDALE
AREA AT 1211 AM CDT...AND MOVING EAST AT 50 MPH. THESE STORMS WILL
MOVE ACROSS MUCH OF BOLIVAR AND NORTHERN SUNFLOWER COUNTIES THROUGH
1 AM CDT.

PEOPLE IN BOLIVAR AND SUNFLOWER COUNTIES...INCLUDING THE CITIES OF
CLEVELAND...DREW...PARCHMAN...ROSEDALE...RULEVILLE...SHAW AND
SHELBY...SHOULD MONITOR THIS STORM CLOSELY.

EEC