Severe Thunderstorm Warning 184, NWS Jackson, MS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
332 PM CDT SUN MAR 30 2008

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...THE LEADING EDGE OF A
LARGE AREA OF RAIN WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WAS STILL MAKING ITS
WAY INTO OUR WESTERN TIER COUNTIES AND PARISHES. THIS SLOW PUSH
EASTWARD WAS IN PART DUE TO RIDGING SURFACE AND ALOFT OVER THE
EASTERN PORTIONS OF OUR CWFA. RATHER STRONG SURFACE HIGH WEDGING
DOWN THE EASTERN SEABOARD AND RIDGING ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES
HAS BROUGHT IN SOME DRIER AIR. SURFACE DEW POINTS AT MERIDIAN AND
HATTIESBURG WERE RUNNING IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S AND VERY LITTLE CU
DEVELOPMENT WAS BEING WITNESSED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY OVER SOUTHERN
MISSISSIPPI. DESPITE THE RATHER EXTENSIVE CIRRUS SHIELD OVER THE
AREA TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED TO 80 DEGREES OVER MUCH OF MISSISSIPPI
AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WERE DEVELOPING OVER THE DELTA WHERE MID
60 DEW POINTS STILL RESIDE. DRIER AIR FROM THE EAST FILTERING INTO
CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI HAS LIMITED CONVECTIVE DEVELOP SO FAR. THE LARGE
AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER WESTERN LOUISIANA IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
MOVING EAST NORTHEAST TONIGHT WHILE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS STOUT OVER
OUR SOUTHEAST. THE BULK OF THE RAIN TONIGHT WILL FALL NORTHWEST OF
THE NATCHEZ TRACE BUT THE EASTWARD EXTENT OF THE RAIN IS A LITTLE
HARD TO DETERMINE SO WL NOT CUT GUIDANCE MUCH. THE WEDGE DOWN THE
EASTERN SEABOARD WILL WEAKEN INTO TUESDAY AS THE CENTER OF HIGH
PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC. WHILE HIGH PRESSURE WEAKENS
TO OUR EAST...LOW PRESSURE WILL STRENGTHEN TO OUR WEST MONDAY. A
SHORTWAVE NOTED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY OVER NEVADA THIS AFTERNOON WILL
TRACK EAST AND STRENGTHEN THE SURFACE LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.
THIS LOW WILL MOVE OFF TO THE NORTHEAST AND BRING A TRAILING COLD
FRONT INTO OUR CWA TUESDAY. MODELS ARE A LITTLE LIGHTER WITH THE
WINDS MONDAY BETWEEN THIS STRENGTHENING LOW AND WEAKENING HIGH BUT
LAKE WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA IS STILL EXPECTED FROM LATE MORNING
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON IN THE DELTA. RAIN CHANCES MONDAY WILL BE
LIMITED TO THE NORTH EARLY THEN SHIFT TO THE WEST BY LATE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE GFS APPEARS A
LITTLE TO AGGRESSIVE IN GENERATING QPF IN OUR EAST BEFORE DAYBREAK
MONDAY NIGHT BUT WL NOT CUT POPS THERE THIS PACKAGE. GUIDANCE
TEMPERATURES WERE CLOSE AND GENERALLY ACCEPTED. /22/

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...NO CHANGES TO THE CURRENT LONG
TERM FORECAST WILL BE MADE THIS AFTERNOON.  MODELS ARE IN PRETTY
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH TUESDAYS COLD FRONT AS IT PUSHES INTO THE
FORECAST AREA.  HOWEVER...THEY CONTINUE TO REMAIN AT ODDS WITH THEIR
TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF FRIDAYS SYSTEM.  STILL...IN TERMS OF
TUESDAYS COLD FRONT...ALTHOUGH SEVERE PARAMETERS ARENT ALL THAT
IMPRESSIVE...WITH A GOOD BIT OF INSTABILITY IN PLACE OVER THE
AREA...COUPLED WITH DAYTIME HEATING...SOME DECENT LAPSE RATES...AND
THE FORCING ALONG THE FRONT...I WOULDNT RULE OUT A FEW STRONG
STORMS WITH AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM POSSIBLE.  IT LOOKS LIKE HAIL
WILL BE THE PRIMARY CONCERN AND MORE SUSCEPTIBLE OVER AREAS ALONG
AND EAST OF THE NATCHEZ TRACE PARKWAY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING HOURS.  AS A RESULT...ILL INTRODUCE THIS WORDING INTO THE
HWO THIS AFTERNOON.

AS FOR FRIDAYS SYSTEM...WHILE THE GFS HAS SLOWED DOWN A BIT IT
CONTINUES TO BE THE FASTER MODEL BY A GOOD 6-10 HOURS OVER THE
EUROPEAN...AND PAINTS ITS BETTER RAIN CHANCES ON FRIDAY.  THE
EUROPEAN HOWEVER IS ADVERTISING A SLIGHTLY DEEPER AND BETTER
ORGANIZED SYSTEM...BUT IS ADVERTISING ITS BEST RAIN CHANCES LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.  AGAIN...GIVEN THAT THIS IS STILL A GOOD
FIVE DAYS OUT AND MORE CHANGES...WHETHER FOR BETTER OR WORSE IN
TERMS OF AGREEMENT AND INTENSITY...ARE LIKELY...ILL NOT DEVIATE
FROM THE CURRENT EXTENDED FORECAST.

WITH THAT SAID...THE PREVIOUS FORECAST DISCUSSION FOLLOWS. /19/

TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...AN UPPER WAVE MOVES INTO THE AREA AND A
COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THE AIR MASS DESTABILIZES AHEAD
OF THE FRONT. AN 850 MB THETAE RIDGE MOVES INTO THE AREA AND A
HEALTHY CAPE FIELD DEVELOPS. THE BOUNDARY WEAKENS AS IT MOVES INTO
THE ARKLAMISS AS THE STRONGER NRN SURFACE LOW LIFTS ACROSS THE
MIDWESTERN STATES AND THE WEAKER SRN LOW DROPS INTO TX. THIS WILL
SERVE TO HAMPER SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT BUT ISOLATED SEVERE
STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IN THE VICINITY OF THE BOUNDARY
WHICH WILL DROP INTO SERN ZONES LATE TUESDAY. COLD AIR ADVECTION
DEVELOPS FROM THE NORTH BY TUESDAY EVENING IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT.
THE PRIMARY EFFECT WILL BE THE ADVECTION OF DRIER AIR WHILE NOT MUCH
CHANGE EXPECTED IN THE TEMPERATURE FIELDS BEHIND THIS SYSTEM.

LOW LEVEL SLY FLOW REDEVELOPS RAPIDLY WEDNESDAY FROM THE WEST. A
WEAK WARM FRONT LIFTS NWD BUT WASHES OUT AND THE AIR MASS REMAINS
RELATIVELY DRY. THE NEXT COLD FRONT PIVOTS INTO NWRN MS THURSDAY
NIGHT. ONCE AGAIN THE AIR MASS IS DESTABILIZED AND AN AREA OF HIGHER
SHEAR AND HELICITY PIVOTS ACROSS NRN ZONES AS WELL AS AN AREA OF
INCREASED CAPE AND 850 MB THETAE. THE AIR MASS REMAINS UNSTABLE
DURING THE DAY FRIDAY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT THAT MOVES THROUGH
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY EVENING.

WILL FINALLY SEE DECENT LOW LEVEL RIDGING SET UP BEHIND FRIDAYS
FRONT FOR LOW LEVEL NLY FLOW AND A COOLER..DRIER AIR MASS PUSHING IN
FOR THE WEEKEND. /07/

&&

.AVIATION...RIDGING IS HANGING TOUGH IN THE EAST AND ONLY SOME THIN
CIRRUS WAS NOTED IN THE SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON. A LARGE AREA OF
RAIN WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS OVER LOUISIANA HAS HAD A HARD TIME
MOVING EAST INTO OUR AREA. THE RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH CLOUDS
BELOW 2000FT ARE EXPECTED TO SHIFT EAST NORTHEAST ACROSS OUR AREA
TONIGHT. MOST OF THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR NORTHWEST OF THE
NATCHEZ TRACE. SOUTHEAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN UP TONIGHT AND
WILL HAMPER FOG DEVELOPMENT BUT A LAYER OF STRATUS WILL LIKELY
DEVELOP TOWARD MORNING ESPECIALLY IN AREAS THAT RECEIVE RAIN...
RESULTING IN IFR CEILING RESTRICTIONS TOWARD MORNING. CEILINGS WILL
RISE AND DISSIPATE DURING MONDAY MORNING AFTER SUNRISE. /22/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       59  80  62  74 /  50  13  65  57
MERIDIAN      57  77  61  74 /  28  14  53  69
VICKSBURG     60  82  64  76 /  48  13  71  47
HATTIESBURG   59  79  62  76 /  20   7  38  61
NATCHEZ       60  81  65  77 /  27  11  63  45
GREENVILLE    59  78  63  73 /  77  25  82  47
GREENWOOD     58  77  63  71 /  84  25  77  51

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM/AVIATION: 22
LONG TERM: 19/07

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
345 PM CDT SUN MAR 30 2008

ARZ074-075-LAZ007>009-015-016-023>026-MSZ018-019-025>066-072>074-
312045-
ASHLEY-CHICOT-MOREHOUSE-WEST CARROLL-EAST CARROLL-RICHLAND-
MADISON LA-FRANKLIN LA-CATAHOULA-TENSAS-CONCORDIA-BOLIVAR-
SUNFLOWER-LEFLORE-GRENADA-CARROLL-MONTGOMERY-WEBSTER-CLAY-LOWNDES-
CHOCTAW-OKTIBBEHA-WASHINGTON-HUMPHREYS-HOLMES-ATTALA-WINSTON-
NOXUBEE-ISSAQUENA-SHARKEY-YAZOO-MADISON MS-LEAKE-NESHOBA-KEMPER-
WARREN-HINDS-RANKIN-SCOTT-NEWTON-LAUDERDALE-CLAIBORNE-COPIAH-
SIMPSON-SMITH-JASPER-CLARKE-JEFFERSON-ADAMS-FRANKLIN MS-LINCOLN-
LAWRENCE-JEFFERSON DAVIS-COVINGTON-JONES-MARION-LAMAR-FORREST-
345 PM CDT SUN MAR 30 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...
NORTHEAST LOUISIANA...AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT AND MONDAY

A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY
WINDS TO 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING GENERALLY ALONG AND
NORTHWEST OF THE NATCHEZ TRACE. FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND BRIEF HEAVY
DOWNPOURS WILL ALSO ACCOMPANY THE STRONG THUNDERSTORMS. A LARGE AREA
OF RAIN WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING OVER LOUISIANA THIS
AFTERNOON WILL MOVE EAST NORTHEAST ACROSS THE OUTLOOK AREA TONIGHT. A
FEW OF THE THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE STRONG.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY

WITH A GOOD BIT OF INSTABILITY IN PLACE OVER THE AREA TUESDAY...COUPLED
WITH DAYTIME HEATING...DECENT LAPSE RATES...AND A COLD FRONT MOVING
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA...A FEW STRONG...TO POTENTIALLY SEVERE
STORMS...WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF THE OUTLOOK AREA. HAIL WILL
BE THE PRIMARY CONCERN WITH THESE STORMS...AND CURRENTLY LOOK TO BE
MORE SUSCEPTIBLE OVER AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF THE NATCHEZ TRACE
PARKWAY TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY.

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE AT
WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/JAN. THIS INCLUDES THE GRAPHICAL HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK.

22