Severe Thunderstorm Warning 16, NWS Jackson, MS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
644 PM CST TUE JAN 8 2008

.DISCUSSION...ONCE AGAIN...IM ISSUING YET ANOTHER UPDATE TO ALL
PRODUCTS AS A RESULT OF NEWLY ISSUED TORNADO WATCH 11 IN EFFECT
UNTIL 07Z WEDNESDAY FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL...EAST...SOUTH
CENTRAL...AND SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI.  THIS WATCH WILL REPLACE
TORNADO WATCH 10.  THIS UPDATE WILL ALSO BE TO REMOVE SOME COUNTIES
FROM THE PREVIOUS WATCH.

UPDATED PRODUCTS WILL BE OUT SHORTLY. /19/

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...SHORT TERM...ANOMALOUS WARMTH AND LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY HAS GIVEN THE ATMOSPHERE ENOUGH
INSTABILITY TO FUEL SOME POTENT STORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON ALONG AND
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING FRONT. UPPER LEVEL FORCING AND SURFACE
PRESSURE LEVELS ARE BORDERLINE FOR SEEING WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER
IN THE ARKLAMISS...BUT LEVELS OF INSTABILITY ARE APPARENTLY TIPPING
THE SCALES IN FAVOR FOR THE PRODUCTION OF POTENT STORMS. MOST OF THE
SEVERE WEATHER SHOULD BE CONFINED TO THE VICINITY OF THE FRONTAL
ZONE NORTH OF I-20 THIS EVENING (WHERE ATMOSPHERIC SHEAR AND FORCING
IS BEST). HOWEVER...LONE SUPERCELL NOW HEADING TOWARD THE SOUTH SIDE
OF THE METRO FORMED WELL OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT IN AN AREA THOUGHT
TO BE THERMALLY CAPPED TO DEEP CONVECTION. EXPECTING A GOOD BIT OF
THE ACTIVITY TO CALM DOWN WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS THE SETTING
SUN ALLOWS INSTABILITY TO LESSEN AND SHEAR WANES WITH SURFACE LOW
PULLING WELL TO THE NORTH. STILL WILL BE ENOUGH JUICE AND FORCING TO
CONTINUE SHOWERS AND WEAKER STORMS WITH THE FRONT THROUGH EARLY
MORNING AS THE BOUNDARY PROGRESSES WEST TO EAST. HEAVIEST DOWNPOURS
SHOULD OCCUR OVER NORTHERN ZONES WITH ALMOST ALL AREAS RECEIVING
AMOUNTS UNDER ONE INCH. COOLER AIR COMING IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT
WILL BE FELT BY MORNING...BUT TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM 40 TO 50
FROM NORTH TO THE SOUTH WILL NOT FEEL THAT BAD FOR EARLY JANUARY.

LAKE WIND ADVISORY AND WIND ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE ALLOWED TO
EXPIRED AT 6 PM SINCE PRESSURE GRADIENTS SHOULD DROP OFF
DRAMATICALLY BY THAT TIME. /BB/

.LONG TERM...DECENT POCKET OF MOISTURE REMAINS IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE TONIGHT...JUST SHY OF 700 MB OVER SERN ZONES. WEAK
VERTICAL MOTION IS NOTED WITH WEAK WAVES IN UPPER FLOW AND LIFTED
INDICES SUGGEST THAT A SLIGHTLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 20. THIS WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO MAINTAIN AT
LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER MOST SRN ZONES THROUGH
TOMORROW. THE FRONT STALLS JUST OFFSHORE FOR MOST OF THE DAY
WEDNESDAY BUT BEGINS TO EDGE INLAND LATE...LIFTING ACROSS MUCH OF
THE FORECAST AREA BY SUNRISE THURSDAY. THE RETURNING WARM FRONT WILL
SERVE AS THE LEADING EDGE OF LOWER 60S BACK INTO THE
REGION...LEAVING ABUNDANT MOISTURE IN PLACE WHEN THE NEXT FRONTAL
SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THURSDAY.

THE AIR MASS DESTABILIZES FROM THE SOUTHEAST WED NIGHT WITH SURFACE
DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 60S FOR MOST AREAS S OF INTERSTATE 20 AND
LAPSE RATES NEARING 6 DEGS. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND STRONGER STORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE TOWARD DAYBREAK
THURSDAY. THE AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE TO DESTABILIZE DURING THE DAY
AND THE LOW LEVEL JET WILL INTENSIFY AS IT SHIFTS EWD ACROSS THE
REGION. UPPER SUPPORT WILL BE MORE THAN SUFFICIENT WITH A 120+KT 250
MB JET EXTENDING ACROSS NWRN MS BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. WITH HEALTHY
SHEAR DEVELOPING (0-1KM HELICITY VALUES RANGE FROM 150-200) AND
SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY SETTING UP...THE STAGE WILL BE SET FOR
ANOTHER ROUND OF POTENTIALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR MUCH OF THE
AREA THURSDAY. CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF
A LINE FROM VICKSBURG TO COLUMBUS WILL SEE THE BEST CHANCE OF SEVERE
WEATHER.

THE FRONT LIFTS TO THE EAST THURSDAY NIGHT AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN FRIDAY. MODELS DIVERGE ON THE SOLUTIONS FOR THE WEEKEND. THE GFS
IS PULLING BACK ON POPS FOR THE WEEKEND...KEEPING THE LOW WELL
OFFSHORE NOW. THE EURO SHIFTS A FLAT SURFACE TROUGH NEAR THE REGION
AND MAINTAINS RAIN CHANCES FOR LATE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. WILL LEAVE
SMALLER RAIN CHANCES IN FORECAST FOR NOW CONSIDERING MODEL
UNCERTAINTY.

GENERALLY FOLLOWED PREVIOUS FORECAST THINKING ON EXTENDED PORTIONS.
PREVIOUS EXTENDED DISCUSSION IS ATTACHED:
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE IN FRIDAY BEHIND THE STORM SYSTEM. THIS WILL
KEEP THE AREA DRY FOR FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES
NEAR CLIMATOLOGY.  BY SATURDAY WE SEE ANOTHER SHORTWAVE APPROACH THE
AREA.  A SURFACE LOW SHOULD DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHWESTERN GULF AND
MOVE EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF.  THIS SHOULD BRING SHOWERS TO
THE AREA FOR SATURDAY AND INTO SUNDAY.  HAVE REMAINED RATHER CLOSE
TO GUI POPS FOR THIS TIME PERIOD. FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE WORK WEEK
WE SHOULD SEE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILD IN OVER THE REGION AND
THIS IS IN SOMEWHAT AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE ECMWF AND GFS.  HAVE WENT
AHEAD AND LOWERED POPS A BIT TO TAKE OUT MENTION OF ANY SHOWERS FOR
THIS TIME PERIOD UNTIL TUESDAY WHEN THE HIGH SHOULD BEGIN TO SHIFT
TO THE EAST.  TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE EXTENDED SHOULD REMAIN NEAR
CLIMATOLOGY WITH A DRIER AND COOLER AIRMASS MOVING INTO THE REGION
BEHIND THE SYSTEM THURSDAY.  HIGHS LOOK TO BE IN THE 40S AND 50S
WITH LOWS AROUND FREEZING...GIVE OR TAKE A FEW DEGREES...FOR THE
WEEKEND THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. /14/

&&

.AVIATION...
STORMY WEATHER PRECEDING A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE THIS EVENING WILL BE
THE MAIN STORY FOR THE ARKLAMISS REGION TONIGHT. EXPECT SOME STORMS
TO BE SEVERE WITH GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF I-20.
WINDS WILL SHIFT AROUND TO NORTHERLY BEHIND THE FRONT...BUT SHOULD
NOT BE TOO GUSTY. EXPECT BRIEF IFR (AND NOT QUITE AS BRIEF MVFR)
CONDITIONS TO ACCOMPANY THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...ALTHOUGH CONDITIONS
SHOULD BE MOSTLY VFR BY EARLY TOMORROW WITH CLOUD DECKS ABOVE 5 KFT.
/BB/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       49  61  55  69 /  73  16  42  68
MERIDIAN      51  61  56  71 /  85  21  67  75
VICKSBURG     48  61  53  68 /  43  14  27  58
HATTIESBURG   52  63  58  72 /  66  24  45  70
NATCHEZ       48  60  53  70 /  49  21  23  68
GREENVILLE    44  58  51  63 /  31   6  22  43
GREENWOOD     44  60  52  64 /  46   9  33  52

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

19

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
339 PM CST TUE JAN 8 2008

ARZ074-075-LAZ007>009-015-016-023>026-MSZ018-019-025>066-072>074-
092145-
ASHLEY-CHICOT-MOREHOUSE-WEST CARROLL-EAST CARROLL-RICHLAND-
MADISON-FRANKLIN-CATAHOULA-TENSAS-CONCORDIA-BOLIVAR-SUNFLOWER-
LEFLORE-GRENADA-CARROLL-MONTGOMERY-WEBSTER-CLAY-LOWNDES-CHOCTAW-
OKTIBBEHA-WASHINGTON-HUMPHREYS-HOLMES-ATTALA-WINSTON-NOXUBEE-
ISSAQUENA-SHARKEY-YAZOO-LEAKE-NESHOBA-KEMPER-WARREN-HINDS-RANKIN-
SCOTT-NEWTON-LAUDERDALE-CLAIBORNE-COPIAH-SIMPSON-SMITH-JASPER-
CLARKE-JEFFERSON-ADAMS-LINCOLN-LAWRENCE-JEFFERSON DAVIS-COVINGTON-
JONES-MARION-LAMAR-FORREST-
339 PM CST TUE JAN 8 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...
NORTHEAST LOUISIANA...AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY

A POTENT UPPER AIR DISTURBANCE AND COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE
REGION WILL SWEEP SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE ARKLAMISS THIS
EVENING. ACTIVITY SHOULD EXIT SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI LATE TONIGHT.

LEVELS OF INSTABILITY AND SHEAR ARE SUCH THAT ANY STORM COULD BE
CAPABLE OF SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS TO AT LEAST 45 MPH.
HOWEVER...SEVERE STORMS WILL GENERALLY BE CONFINED TO LOCATIONS ALONG
AND NORTHEAST OF THE NATCHEZ TRACE THROUGH 7 OR 8 PM...AND THEN
MAINLY TO LOCATIONS IN NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI DURING THE MID EVENING
HOURS. THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT SHOULD BE DIMINISHING QUICKLY
THEREAFTER. EXPECT THE MAIN RISK WITH SEVERE STORMS TO COME FROM
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS...ALTHOUGH TORNADOES CANNOT BE RULED
OUT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY

THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY. A WAVE OF
GULF MOISTURE WILL LIFT INLAND AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...SETTING THE STAGE FOR MORE POSSIBLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
DURING THE DAY THURSDAY. A FEW STRONGER STORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE JUST
BEFORE DAY BREAK THURSDAY BUT THE PRIME TIME FOR POSSIBLE SEVERE
WEATHER WILL BE DURING THE DAY THURSDAY WHEN THE COLD FRONT SWEEPS
THROUGH. AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM COLUMBUS TO VICKSBURG
WILL SEE THE BEST CHANCE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL BE THE MOST PREVALENT SEVERE STORM RISK BUT
TORNADOES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE.

FOR THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...THE PROBABILITY FOR
WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS...MAY BE NEEDED TONIGHT AND THURSDAY.

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE AT
WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/JAN. THIS INCLUDES THE GRAPHICAL HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK.

50/03

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
647 PM CST TUE JAN 08 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0520 PM     TSTM WND DMG     BELLEFONTAINE           33.65N 89.31W
01/08/2008                   WEBSTER            MS   EMERGENCY MNGR

            SEVERAL TREES WERE BLOWN DOWN AROUND THE BELLEFONTAINE
            AREA.

0530 PM     TSTM WND DMG     WALTHALL                33.61N 89.28W
01/08/2008                   WEBSTER            MS   EMERGENCY MNGR

            2 TREES WERE BLOWN DOWN. POWER LINES BLOWN DOWN ON SHAW
            ROAD.

&&

JFAIRLY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
648 PM CST TUE JAN 08 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0642 PM     HAIL             COLUMBUS AFB            33.63N 88.45W
01/08/2008  E1.00 INCH       LOWNDES            MS   OTHER FEDERAL

&&

CME

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
651 PM CST TUE JAN 08 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0557 PM     HAIL             PHEBA                   33.58N 88.95W
01/08/2008  E0.75 INCH       CLAY               MS   PUBLIC

&&

SWILKINS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
659 PM CST TUE JAN 08 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0620 PM     TSTM WND DMG     3 W WEST LINCOLN        31.49N 90.62W
01/08/2008                   LINCOLN            MS   EMERGENCY MNGR

            A TREE FELL CAUSING DAMAGE TO A CAR AND HOUSE.

&&

SWILKINS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
709 PM CST TUE JAN 08 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0705 PM     TSTM WND DMG     CALEDONIA               33.68N 88.33W
01/08/2008                   LOWNDES            MS   EMERGENCY MNGR

            2 TREES DOWN NEAR CALEDONIA AND 1 TREE DOWN NEAR HIGHWAY
            50 EAST OF COLUMBUS

&&

SWILKINS