Severe Thunderstorm Warning 126, NWS Jackson, MS

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HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
358 PM CST MON FEB 25 2008

ARZ074-075-LAZ007>009-015-016-023>026-MSZ018-019-025>066-072>074-
262200-
ASHLEY-CHICOT-MOREHOUSE-WEST CARROLL-EAST CARROLL-RICHLAND-
MADISON-FRANKLIN-CATAHOULA-TENSAS-CONCORDIA-BOLIVAR-SUNFLOWER-
LEFLORE-GRENADA-CARROLL-MONTGOMERY-WEBSTER-CLAY-LOWNDES-CHOCTAW-
OKTIBBEHA-WASHINGTON-HUMPHREYS-HOLMES-ATTALA-WINSTON-NOXUBEE-
ISSAQUENA-SHARKEY-YAZOO-LEAKE-NESHOBA-KEMPER-WARREN-HINDS-RANKIN-
SCOTT-NEWTON-LAUDERDALE-CLAIBORNE-COPIAH-SIMPSON-SMITH-JASPER-
CLARKE-JEFFERSON-ADAMS-LINCOLN-LAWRENCE-JEFFERSON DAVIS-COVINGTON-
JONES-MARION-LAMAR-FORREST-
358 PM CST MON FEB 25 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...
NORTHEAST LOUISIANA...AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT AND TUESDAY

THERE IS A RISK FOR ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR TONIGHT ACROSS
THE ENTIRE OUTLOOK AREA WITH THE FOCUS MAINLY ON THE NORTHWEST HALF
BETWEEN 9 PM AND 3 AM. THE GREATEST RISK FOR LARGE HAIL UP TO GOLF
BALLS...DAMAGING WINDS UP TO 70 MPH AND A FEW TORNADOES IS DEFINED
BY THE AREA ALONG AND NORTHWEST OF THE NATCHEZ TRACE PARKWAY. THE
STORMS SHOULD TEND TO BECOME LESS NUMEROUS AS THEY MOVE FARTHER EAST
EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.

THE SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS A VERY STRONG UPPER DISTURBANCE
MOVES OUT OF THE PLAINS PUSHING A STRONG SURFACE COLD FRONT INTO THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THE FRONT SHOULD TRIGGER A BROKEN LINE OF
THUNDERSTORMS BUT THE AIR MASS AHEAD OF THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO
REMAIN CAPPED BY A WARM LAYER OF AIR ALOFT UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT. IF
STORMS DEVELOP JUST AHEAD OF THE LINE...SUPERCELLS ARE LIKELY IN THE
VERY STRONG SHEAR ENVIRONMENT. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS APPEAR TO
BE THE MAIN RISK ALTHOUGH TORNADOES CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

THE LINE OF STORMS WILL TRAVEL FROM THE NORTHWEST DELTA TO THE NATCHEZ
TRACE CORRIDOR BETWEEN 9 PM AND 2 AM AND THE LINE WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST
OF THE NATCHEZ TRACE BETWEEN 2 AM AND 5 AM. THE LINE IS EXPECTED TO
WEAKEN AND IT MOVES SOUTHEAST OF THE NATCHEZ TRACE AFTER MIDNIGHT
INTO A SOMEWHAT MORE STABLE AIR MASS. THE STORMS SHOULD COMPLETELY
EXIT SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI BEFORE 8 AM TUESDAY.

AS THE COLDER AIR RUSHES IN TUESDAY...NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE
AND BECOME GUSTY TO BETWEEN 20 AND 30 MPH. A LAKE WIND ADVISORY WILL
BE IN EFFECT FOR MOST LOCATIONS TUESDAY BEFORE THE WINDS DIE DOWN
TUESDAY EVENING FROM THE NORTH AT 10 TO 20 MPH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS...MAY BE NEEDED FOR SEVERAL HOURS LATE TONIGHT.
OTHERWISE...ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH SUNDAY.

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE AT
WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/JAN. THIS INCLUDES THE GRAPHICAL HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK.

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