Alert archive / Mississippi / River Flood Warnings in 2008

River Flood Warning 73, NWS Jackson, MS

December 14, 2008Leake County, Mississippi

NWS Jackson, MS issued this river flood warning at Dec 14, 2008, 3:56 PM CST for Leake County, Mississippi. It was in force for 42 hr.

The area

The counties it named.

The facts

Issued
Dec 14, 2008, 3:56 PM CST (21:56 UTC)
Expired
Dec 16, 2008, 9:40 AM CST
In force
42 hr
Issued by
NWS Jackson, MS
Flood severity
Minor

County Leake County, MS

The radar

The Jackson/Brandon,MS radar (KDGX), 68 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 21:53 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The river

Written for the forecast point Pearl River near Lena (GDHM6).

Action stage
23 ft
Minor stage
24 ft
Moderate stage
29 ft
Major stage
31 ft

This gauge today: stage, forecast and historic crests

Stage from the USGS instantaneous record for site 02483500, one reading an hour, from a day before the product to a day after it ended. Flood stages are today's.

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

000 
WGUS44 KJAN 142156
FLWJAN
BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON, MS
356 PM CST SUN DEC 14 2008


...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN JACKSON HAS ISSUED A FLOOD WARNING
   FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVERS IN MISSISSIPPI... 
   

  PEARL RIVER NEAR LENA AFFECTING LEAKE COUNTY
  

SAFETY MESSAGE...DO NOT DRIVE OR WALK THROUGH AREAS WHERE WATER 
COVERS ROADWAYS THE WATER MAY BE DEEPER THAN IT APPEARS. PLEASE USE 
EXTREME CAUTION IF VENTURING NEAR RIVERBANKS. MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND 
IMMEDIATELY SHOULD RISING WATER THREATEN YOUR SAFETY. REMEMBER...TURN
AROUND, DONT DROWN

THE FOLLOWING FORECASTS ARE BASED ON RAINFALL THAT HAS OCCURRED, 
COMBINED WITH RAINFALL THAT IS FORECAST TO OCCUR OVER THE NEXT 12 
HOURS.

ADDITIONAL INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE AT (USE LOWER CASE LETTERS) 
HTTP://AHPS.SRH.NOAA.GOV/AHPS2/INDEX.PHP?WFO=JAN

THE NEXT REGULARLY SCHEDULED UPDATE IS EXPECTED BETWEEN 8 AND 10 AM.

MSC079-151243-
/O.NEW.KJAN.FL.W.0073.081214T2156Z-081215T1243Z/
/GDHM6.1.ER.081214T1909Z.081214T2115Z.081214T2143Z.NO/
356 PM CST SUN DEC 14 2008

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN JACKSON HAS ISSUED A FLOOD WARNING
* FOR THE PEARL RIVER NEAR LENA UNTIL MONDAY MORNING.
* AT 3:30 PM SUNDAY THE STAGE WAS 24.0 FEET. 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 24.0 FEET. 
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE TO FALL TO BELOW FLOOD STAGE BY 
  LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
* IMPACT...AT 24.0 FEET...MINOR FLOODING OF AGRICULTURAL AND PASTURE 
  LAND IS OCCURRING ALONG THE RIVER.

&&


              FLOOD    OBSERVED        FORECAST 6AM       CREST
LOCATION       STG   STG DAY  TIME   MON   TUE   WED CREST DAY  TIME

UPPER PEARL RIVER
LENA            24  24.0 SUN 03 PM  23.4  23.7  22.8    CRESTING        

$$
5 follow-up statements
000 
WGUS44 KJAN 142226
FLWJAN
BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
FLOOD WARNING...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON, MS
426 PM CST SUN DEC 14 2008

...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS ISSUED A FLOOD WARNING
   FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVERS IN MISSISSIPPI...

  PEARL RIVER NEAR LENA AFFECTING LEAKE COUNTY

SAFETY MESSAGE...DO NOT DRIVE OR WALK THROUGH AREAS WHERE WATER 
COVERS ROADWAYS THE WATER MAY BE DEEPER THAN IT APPEARS. PLEASE USE 
EXTREME CAUTION IF VENTURING NEAR RIVERBANKS. MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND 
IMMEDIATELY SHOULD RISING WATER THREATEN YOUR SAFETY. REMEMBER...TURN
AROUND, DONT DROWN

THE FOLLOWING FORECASTS ARE BASED ON RAINFALL THAT HAS OCCURRED, 
COMBINED WITH RAINFALL THAT IS FORECAST TO OCCUR OVER THE NEXT 12 
HOURS.

ADDITIONAL INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE AT (USE LOWER CASE LETTERS) 
HTTP://AHPS.SRH.NOAA.GOV/AHPS2/INDEX.PHP?WFO=JAN

THE NEXT REGULARLY SCHEDULED UPDATE IS EXPECTED BETWEEN 8 AND 10 AM.

MSC079-151243-
/O.CON.KJAN.FL.W.0073.000000T0000Z-081215T1243Z/
/GDHM6.1.ER.081214T1909Z.081214T2115Z.081214T2143Z.NO/
426 PM CST SUN DEC 14 2008

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN JACKSON HAS ISSUED A FLOOD WARNING
* FOR THE PEARL RIVER NEAR LENA UNTIL MONDAY MORNING.
* AT 3:30 PM SUNDAY THE STAGE WAS 24.0 FEET. 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 24.0 FEET. 
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE TO FALL TO BELOW FLOOD STAGE BY 
  LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
* IMPACT...AT 24.0 FEET...MINOR FLOODING OF AGRICULTURAL AND PASTURE 
  LAND IS OCCURRING ALONG THE RIVER.

&&
 
              FLOOD    OBSERVED        FORECAST 6AM       CREST
LOCATION       STG   STG DAY  TIME   MON   TUE   WED CREST DAY  TIME

UPPER PEARL RIVER
LENA            24  24.0 SUN 03 PM  23.7  22.8  22.0    CRESTING        

$$
000 
WGUS84 KJAN 150141
FLSJAN
FLOOD STATEMENT 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON, MS
741 PM CST SUN DEC 14 2008


...THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVERS IN 
   MISSISSIPPI...

 
  PEARL RIVER ABOVE PHILADELPHIA AFFECTING NESHOBA COUNTY 
  PEARL RIVER NEAR LENA AFFECTING LEAKE COUNTY 
  TUSCOLAMETA CREEK AT WALNUT GROVE AFFECTING LEAKE COUNTY 
  PEARL RIVER AT EDINBURG AFFECTING LEAKE COUNTY 
  PEARL RIVER NEAR CARTHAGE AFFECTING LEAKE COUNTY 
  YOCKANOOKANY RIVER NEAR OFAHOMA AFFECTING LEAKE COUNTY 
  PEARL RIVER AT JACKSON AFFECTING HINDS AND RANKIN COUNTIES 


SAFETY MESSAGE...DO NOT DRIVE OR WALK THROUGH AREAS WHERE WATER 
COVERS ROADWAYS THE WATER MAY BE DEEPER THAN IT APPEARS. PLEASE USE 
EXTREME CAUTION IF VENTURING NEAR RIVERBANKS. MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND 
IMMEDIATELY SHOULD RISING WATER THREATEN YOUR SAFETY. REMEMBER...TURN
AROUND, DONT DROWN

THE FOLLOWING FORECASTS ARE BASED ON RAINFALL THAT HAS OCCURRED, 
COMBINED WITH RAINFALL THAT IS FORECAST TO OCCUR OVER THE NEXT 12 
HOURS.

THE NEXT REGULARLY SCHEDULED UPDATE IS EXPECTED BETWEEN 8 AND 10 AM.

MSC099-160741-
/O.EXT.KJAN.FL.W.0054.000000T0000Z-081218T1300Z/
/PLAM6.2.ER.081212T0010Z.081213T2045Z.081217T2200Z.NO/
741 PM CST SUN DEC 14 2008

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE PEARL RIVER ABOVE PHILADELPHIA
* UNTIL THURSDAY MORNING...OR UNTIL THE WARNING IS CANCELLED.
* AT 6:45 PM SUNDAY THE STAGE WAS 15.1 FEET. 
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 13.0 FEET. 
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE TO FALL TO BELOW FLOOD STAGE BY 
  WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
* IMPACT...AT 15.0 FEET...MOST OF THE CAMPING AREAS IN BURNSIDE LAKE 
  WATER PARK ARE COVERED BY FLOOD WATER.

&&


              FLOOD    OBSERVED        FORECAST 6AM       CREST
LOCATION       STG   STG DAY  TIME   MON   TUE   WED CREST DAY  TIME

UPPER PEARL RIVER
PHILADELPHIA    13  15.1 SUN 07 PM  14.8  14.2  13.4    FALLING        

$$

MSC079-160741-
/O.CON.KJAN.FL.W.0060.000000T0000Z-081219T0900Z/
/ENBM6.1.ER.081213T0415Z.081216T0000Z.081218T1800Z.NO/
741 PM CST SUN DEC 14 2008

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE PEARL RIVER AT EDINBURG
* UNTIL LATE THURSDAY NIGHT...OR UNTIL THE WARNING IS CANCELLED.
* AT 6:45 PM SUNDAY THE STAGE WAS 23.3 FEET. 
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 20.0 FEET. 
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE RISING TO NEAR 24.0 FEET BY 
  TOMORROW EVENING. THE RIVER WILL FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE EARLY 
  THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
* IMPACT...AT 24.0 FEET...SOME DIRT ROADS NEAR THE RIVER ARE FLOODED.

&&


              FLOOD    OBSERVED        FORECAST 6AM       CREST
LOCATION       STG   STG DAY  TIME   MON   TUE   WED CREST DAY  TIME

UPPER PEARL RIVER
EDINBURG        20  23.3 SUN 07 PM  23.8  23.7  22.8  24.0 MON 06 PM

$$

MSC079-160741-
/O.CON.KJAN.FL.W.0061.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/CARM6.1.ER.081212T2220Z.081216T1800Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
741 PM CST SUN DEC 14 2008

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE PEARL RIVER NEAR CARTHAGE
* UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE...OR UNTIL THE WARNING IS CANCELLED.
* AT 6:45 PM SUNDAY THE STAGE WAS 20.9 FEET. 
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 17.0 FEET. 
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE RISING TO NEAR 22.0 FEET BY 
  TUESDAY EVENING.
* IMPACT...AT 20.0 FEET...WIDESPREAD FLOODING OF LOWLANDS UPSTREAM AND
  DOWNSTREAM OF THE HIGHWAY 35 BRIDGE IS OCCURRING.

&&


              FLOOD    OBSERVED        FORECAST 6AM       CREST
LOCATION       STG   STG DAY  TIME   MON   TUE   WED CREST DAY  TIME

UPPER PEARL RIVER
CARTHAGE        17  20.9 SUN 07 PM  21.3  21.9  21.8  22.0 TUE 06 PM

$$

MSC079-160000-
/O.EXT.KJAN.FL.W.0073.000000T0000Z-081216T0000Z/
/GDHM6.1.ER.081214T1909Z.081215T0015Z.081215T0900Z.NO/
741 PM CST SUN DEC 14 2008

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE PEARL RIVER NEAR LENA
* UNTIL MONDAY EVENING...OR UNTIL THE WARNING IS CANCELLED.
* AT 6:30 PM SUNDAY THE STAGE WAS 24.1 FEET. 
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 24.0 FEET. 
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE TO FALL TO BELOW FLOOD STAGE BY 
  EARLY TOMORROW.
* IMPACT...AT 24.0 FEET...MINOR FLOODING OF AGRICULTURAL AND PASTURE 
  LAND IS OCCURRING ALONG THE RIVER.

&&


              FLOOD    OBSERVED        FORECAST 6AM       CREST
LOCATION       STG   STG DAY  TIME   MON   TUE   WED CREST DAY  TIME

UPPER PEARL RIVER
LENA            24  24.1 SUN 06 PM  23.9  23.5  23.2    FALLING        

$$

MSC079-160130-
/O.EXT.KJAN.FL.W.0057.000000T0000Z-081216T0130Z/
/WTGM6.1.ER.081211T0946Z.081213T0115Z.081215T1030Z.NO/
741 PM CST SUN DEC 14 2008

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE TUSCOLAMETA CREEK AT WALNUT GROVE
* UNTIL MONDAY EVENING...OR UNTIL THE WARNING IS CANCELLED.
* AT 7:00 PM SUNDAY THE STAGE WAS 26.0 FEET. 
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 25.0 FEET. 
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE TO FALL TO BELOW FLOOD STAGE BY 
  EARLY TOMORROW.
* IMPACT...AT 25.0 FEET...AGRICULTURAL LAND AND LOW AREAS ALONG AND 
  NEAR THE RIVER BEGIN TO FLOOD.

&&


              FLOOD    OBSERVED        FORECAST 6AM       CREST
LOCATION       STG   STG DAY  TIME   MON   TUE   WED CREST DAY  TIME

TUSCOLAMETA CREEK
WALNUT GROVE    25  26.0 SUN 07 PM  24.8  22.4  21.2    FALLING        

$$

MSC079-160740-
/O.CON.KJAN.FL.W.0063.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/OFAM6.2.ER.081212T1436Z.081216T1200Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
741 PM CST SUN DEC 14 2008

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE YOCKANOOKANY RIVER NEAR OFAHOMA
* UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE...OR UNTIL THE WARNING IS CANCELLED.
* AT 6:45 PM SUNDAY THE STAGE WAS 22.3 FEET. 
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MODERATE FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 19.0 FEET. 
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE RISING TO NEAR 23.0 FEET BY 
  EARLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
* IMPACT...AT 23.0 FEET...WIDESPREAD LOWLAND FLOODING IS OCCURRING FOR
  SEVERAL MILES EAST AND WEST OF THE RIVER. SEVERAL COUNTY ROADS
  ARE UNDERWATER SOUTH OF THE GAGE SITE NEAR THE PEARL RIVER.

&&


              FLOOD    OBSERVED        FORECAST 6AM       CREST
LOCATION       STG   STG DAY  TIME   MON   TUE   WED CREST DAY  TIME

YOCKANOOKANY RIVER
OFAHOMA         19  22.3 SUN 07 PM  22.6  23.0  22.7  23.0 TUE 12 PM

$$

MSC049-121-160740-
/O.CON.KJAN.FL.W.0064.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/JACM6.1.ER.081212T0800Z.081215T0600Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
741 PM CST SUN DEC 14 2008

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE PEARL RIVER AT JACKSON
* UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE...OR UNTIL THE WARNING IS CANCELLED.
* AT 6:45 PM SUNDAY THE STAGE WAS 30.4 FEET. 
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 28.0 FEET. 
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE RISING TO NEAR 30.5 FEET BY 
  MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.  
* IMPACT...AT 31.0 FEET...WATER BEGINS TO IMPACT ADDITIONAL HOMES 
  AND BUSINESSES IN THE BYRAM AREA.

&&


              FLOOD    OBSERVED        FORECAST 6AM       CREST
LOCATION       STG   STG DAY  TIME   MON   TUE   WED CREST DAY  TIME

MIDDLE PEARL RIVER
JACKSON         28  30.4 SUN 07 PM  30.5  30.2  30.1    NEAR CREST        

$$
000 
WGUS84 KJAN 151632
FLSJAN
FLOOD STATEMENT 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON, MS
1031 AM CST MON DEC 15 2008


...THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVERS IN 
MISSISSIPPI...

 
  PEARL RIVER ABOVE PHILADELPHIA AFFECTING NESHOBA COUNTY 
  PEARL RIVER AT EDINBURG AFFECTING LEAKE COUNTY 
  PEARL RIVER NEAR CARTHAGE AFFECTING LEAKE COUNTY 
  PEARL RIVER NEAR LENA AFFECTING LEAKE COUNTY 
  YOCKANOOKANY RIVER NEAR OFAHOMA AFFECTING LEAKE COUNTY 
  PEARL RIVER AT JACKSON AFFECTING HINDS AND RANKIN COUNTIES 


...HIGHER JACKSON FORECAST ON THE PEARL RIVER...

THE RIVER FLOW INFLOW FORECAST HAS BEEN RAISED AND THUS
DISCHARGES HAVE BEEN INCREASED FROM ROSS BARNETT TO
COMPENSATE FOR THIS INCREASE. THE JACKSON GAGE IS 
EXPECTED TO CREST BETWEEN 32 TO NEAR 33 FEET ON TUESDAY.
SOME RAINFALL IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THUS
FAR THE RAIN LOOKS TO BE LIGHT...HOWEVER...THOSE ALONG THE
RIVER NEED TO KEEP A WATCHFUL EYE ON WEATHER AND RIVER
CONDITIONS.

SAFETY MESSAGE... DO NOT DRIVE OR WALK THROUGH AREAS WHERE WATER 
COVERS ROADWAYS THE WATER MAY BE DEEPER THAN IT APPEARS. PLEASE USE 
EXTREME CAUTION IF VENTURING NEAR RIVERBANKS. MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND 
IMMEDIATELY SHOULD RISING WATER THREATEN YOUR SAFETY. REMEMBER...TURN
AROUND, DONT DROWN

THE FOLLOWING FORECASTS ARE BASED ON RAINFALL THAT HAS OCCURRED, 
COMBINED WITH RAINFALL THAT IS FORECAST TO OCCUR OVER THE NEXT 12 
HOURS.

ADDITIONAL INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE AT (USE LOWER CASE LETTERS) 
HTTP://AHPS.SRH.NOAA.GOV/AHPS2/INDEX.PHP?WFO=JAN

THE NEXT REGULARLY SCHEDULED UPDATE IS EXPECTED TONIGHT BETWEEN 8 AND
10 PM.

MSC099-162231-
/O.EXT.KJAN.FL.W.0054.000000T0000Z-081218T0100Z/
/PLAM6.2.ER.081212T0010Z.081213T2045Z.081217T1000Z.NO/
1031 AM CST MON DEC 15 2008

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE PEARL RIVER ABOVE PHILADELPHIA
* UNTIL WEDNESDAY EVENING...OR UNTIL THE WARNING IS CANCELLED.
* AT  9:45 AM MONDAY THE STAGE WAS 14.4 FEET. 
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 13.0 FEET. 
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE TO FALL TO BELOW FLOOD STAGE BY 
  WEDNESDAY MORNING.

&&
 
              FLOOD    OBSERVED        FORECAST 6AM       CREST
LOCATION       STG   STG DAY  TIME   TUE   WED   THU CREST DAY  TIME

UPPER PEARL RIVER
PHILADELPHIA    13  14.4 MON 10 AM  13.9  12.9  11.4  FALLING       

$$

MSC079-162230-
/O.EXT.KJAN.FL.W.0060.000000T0000Z-081219T0025Z/
/ENBM6.1.ER.081213T0415Z.081215T1800Z.081218T0925Z.NO/
1031 AM CST MON DEC 15 2008

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE PEARL RIVER AT EDINBURG
* UNTIL THURSDAY EVENING...OR UNTIL THE WARNING IS CANCELLED.
* AT  9:45 AM MONDAY THE STAGE WAS 23.6 FEET. 
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 20.0 FEET. 
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE RISING TO NEAR 23.8 FEET BY THIS
  EVENING. 
* IMPACT...AT 23.8 FEET...SOME DIRT ROADS NEAR THE RIVER ARE BEGINNING
  TO FLOOD.

&&
 
              FLOOD    OBSERVED        FORECAST 6AM       CREST
LOCATION       STG   STG DAY  TIME   TUE   WED   THU CREST DAY  TIME

UPPER PEARL RIVER
EDINBURG        20  23.6 MON 10 AM  23.7  22.7  19.4  23.8 MON 06 PM

$$

MSC079-162230-
/O.EXT.KJAN.FL.W.0061.000000T0000Z-081220T0036Z/
/CARM6.1.ER.081212T2220Z.081217T0600Z.081219T0936Z.NO/
1031 AM CST MON DEC 15 2008

...FLOOD WARNING EXTENDED UNTIL FRIDAY EVENING...

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE PEARL RIVER NEAR CARTHAGE
* UNTIL FRIDAY EVENING...OR UNTIL THE WARNING IS CANCELLED.
* AT  9:45 AM MONDAY THE STAGE WAS 21.3 FEET. 
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 17.0 FEET. 
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE RISING TO NEAR 22.0 FEET BY 
  EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. 
* IMPACT...WIDESPREAD FLOODING OF LOWLANDS UPSTREAM AND
  DOWNSTREAM OF HIGHWAY 35 BRIDGE IS OCCURRING.

&&
 
              FLOOD    OBSERVED        FORECAST 6AM       CREST
LOCATION       STG   STG DAY  TIME   TUE   WED   THU CREST DAY  TIME

UPPER PEARL RIVER
CARTHAGE        17  21.3 MON 10 AM  21.5  21.9  20.3  22.0 WED 12 AM

$$

MSC079-161200-
/O.EXT.KJAN.FL.W.0073.000000T0000Z-081216T1200Z/
/GDHM6.1.ER.081214T1909Z.081215T1315Z.081215T2100Z.NO/
1031 AM CST MON DEC 15 2008

...FLOOD WARNING EXTENDED UNTIL TUESDAY MORNING...

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE PEARL RIVER NEAR LENA
* UNTIL TUESDAY MORNING...OR UNTIL THE WARNING IS CANCELLED.
* AT  9:30 AM MONDAY THE STAGE WAS 24.2 FEET. 
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 24.0 FEET. 
* FORECAST...THE RIVER IS CRESTING AND SHOULD FALL TO BELOW FLOOD STAGE BY 
  LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
* IMPACT...MINOR FLOODING OF AGRICULTURAL AND PASTURE 
  LAND IS OCCURRIN ALONG THE RIVER.

&&
 
              FLOOD    OBSERVED        FORECAST 6AM       CREST
LOCATION       STG   STG DAY  TIME   TUE   WED   THU CREST DAY  TIME

UPPER PEARL RIVER
LENA            24  24.2 MON 09 AM  23.5  23.2  22.6 CRESTING       

$$

MSC079-162230-
/O.EXT.KJAN.FL.W.0063.000000T0000Z-081220T0945Z/
/OFAM6.2.ER.081212T1436Z.081216T1800Z.081219T1845Z.NO/
1031 AM CST MON DEC 15 2008

...FLOOD WARNING EXTENDED UNTIL LATE FRIDAY NIGHT...

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE YOCKANOOKANY RIVER NEAR OFAHOMA
* UNTIL LATE FRIDAY NIGHT...OR UNTIL THE WARNING IS CANCELLED.
* AT  9:45 AM MONDAY THE STAGE WAS 22.6 FEET. 
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MODERATE FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 19.0 FEET. 
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE RISING TO NEAR 23.0 FEET BY 
  EARLY TOMORROW AFTERNOON. 
* IMPACT...AT 23.0 FEET...WIDESPREAD LOWLAND FLOODING IS OCCURRING FOR
  SEVERAL MILES EAST AND WEST OF THE RIVER. ALSO SEVERAL COUNTY ROADS
  ARE UNDERWATER SOUTH OF THE GAGE SITE NEAR THE PEARL RIVER.

&&
 
              FLOOD    OBSERVED        FORECAST 6AM       CREST
LOCATION       STG   STG DAY  TIME   TUE   WED   THU CREST DAY  TIME

YOCKANOOKANY RIVER
OFAHOMA         19  22.6 MON 10 AM  22.9  22.6  21.6  23.0 TUE 12 PM

$$

MSC049-121-162230-
/O.CON.KJAN.FL.W.0064.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/JACM6.1.ER.081212T0800Z.081217T0000Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
1031 AM CST MON DEC 15 2008

....CREST FORECAST HAS BEEN RAISED...

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE PEARL RIVER AT JACKSON
* UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE...OR UNTIL THE WARNING IS CANCELLED.
* AT  9:45 AM MONDAY THE STAGE WAS 30.5 FEET. 
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 28.0 FEET. 
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE RISING TO BETWEEN 32 TO
  NEAR 33 FEET BY TOMORROW EVENING.
* IMPACT...AT 32.5 FEET...ROSEMARY ROAD MAY NEED TO BE CLOSED. 
  WATER IS BEGINNG TO COVER SIDNEY STREET. THERE IS SOME WATER ON WEST 
  STREET. THE PLAYING FIELD OFF WESTBROOK ROAD IS ALMOST UNDERWATER. 
  WATER IS APPROACHING NICHOLS AND JULIENNE STREETS IN THE HIGHTOWER AREA.
* IMPACT...AT 32.0 FEET...WATER BEGINS TO AFFECT BUSINESSES ON SOUTH 
  PRESIDENT AND SOUTH FARISH STREETS. SIDNEY STREET IS FLOODED.
* FLOOD HISTORY...THIS CREST COMPARES TO A PREVIOUS CREST OF 32.1 FEET
  ON FEB 12 2004.

&&
 
              FLOOD    OBSERVED        FORECAST 6AM       CREST
LOCATION       STG   STG DAY  TIME   TUE   WED   THU CREST DAY  TIME

MIDDLE PEARL RIVER
JACKSON         28  30.5 MON 10 AM  32.3  32.4  32.2  32.5 TUE 06 PM

$$
000 
WGUS84 KJAN 160239
FLSJAN
FLOOD STATEMENT 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON, MS
839 PM CST MON DEC 15 2008

...THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVERS IN 
   MISSISSIPPI...
 
  PEARL RIVER ABOVE PHILADELPHIA AFFECTING NESHOBA COUNTY 
  PEARL RIVER AT EDINBURG AFFECTING LEAKE COUNTY 
  PEARL RIVER NEAR CARTHAGE AFFECTING LEAKE COUNTY 
  PEARL RIVER NEAR LENA AFFECTING LEAKE COUNTY 
  PEARL RIVER AT JACKSON AFFECTING HINDS AND RANKIN COUNTIES 
  PEARL RIVER NEAR COLUMBIA AFFECTING MARION COUNTY 
  PEARL RIVER NEAR ROCKPORT AFFECTING COPIAH AND SIMPSON COUNTIES 
  PEARL RIVER NEAR MONTICELLO AFFECTING LAWRENCE COUNTY 

SAFETY MESSAGE... DO NOT DRIVE OR WALK THROUGH AREAS WHERE WATER 
COVERS ROADWAYS THE WATER MAY BE DEEPER THAN IT APPEARS. PLEASE USE 
EXTREME CAUTION IF VENTURING NEAR RIVERBANKS. MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND 
IMMEDIATELY SHOULD RISING WATER THREATEN YOUR SAFETY. REMEMBER...TURN
AROUND, DONT DROWN

THE FOLLOWING FORECASTS ARE BASED ON RAINFALL THAT HAS OCCURRED, 
COMBINED WITH RAINFALL THAT IS FORECAST TO OCCUR OVER THE NEXT 12 
HOURS.

THE NEXT REGULARLY SCHEDULED UPDATE IS EXPECTED BETWEEN 8 AND 10 AM.

MSC099-170839-
/O.EXT.KJAN.FL.W.0054.000000T0000Z-081217T2300Z/
/PLAM6.2.ER.081212T0010Z.081213T2045Z.081217T0800Z.NO/
839 PM CST MON DEC 15 2008

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE PEARL RIVER ABOVE PHILADELPHIA
* UNTIL EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING...OR UNTIL THE WARNING IS CANCELLED.
* AT  7:45 PM MONDAY THE STAGE WAS 14.1 FEET. 
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 13 FEET. 
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE TO FALL TO BELOW FLOOD STAGE BY 
  EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
* IMPACT...AT 14 FEET...WATER BEGINS TO COVER SOME OF THE LAKE 
  BURNSIDE WATER PARK CAMP AREAS.

&&


              FLOOD    OBSERVED        FORECAST 6AM       CREST
LOCATION       STG   STG DAY  TIME   TUE   WED   THU CREST DAY  TIME

UPPER PEARL RIVER
PHILADELPHIA    13  14.1 MON 08 PM  13.7  12.8  11.0      FALLING     

$$

MSC079-170839-
/O.EXT.KJAN.FL.W.0060.000000T0000Z-081218T2242Z/
/ENBM6.1.ER.081213T0415Z.081215T2015Z.081218T0742Z.NO/
839 PM CST MON DEC 15 2008

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE PEARL RIVER AT EDINBURG
* UNTIL EARLY THURSDAY MORNING...OR UNTIL THE WARNING IS CANCELLED.
* AT  7:45 PM MONDAY THE STAGE WAS 23.6 FEET. 
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 20 FEET. 
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE TO FALL TO BELOW FLOOD STAGE BY 
  EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.
* IMPACT...AT 24 FEET...SOME DIRT ROADS NEAR THE RIVER ARE FLOODED.

&&


              FLOOD    OBSERVED        FORECAST 6AM       CREST
LOCATION       STG   STG DAY  TIME   TUE   WED   THU CREST DAY  TIME

UPPER PEARL RIVER
EDINBURG        20  23.6 MON 08 PM  23.5  22.5  19.0     FALLING       

$$

MSC079-170838-
/O.EXT.KJAN.FL.W.0061.000000T0000Z-081220T1220Z/
/CARM6.1.ER.081212T2220Z.081217T0600Z.081219T2120Z.NO/
839 PM CST MON DEC 15 2008

...FLOOD WARNING EXTENDED UNTIL SATURDAY MORNING...

  THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE PEARL RIVER NEAR CARTHAGE
* UNTIL FRIDAY AFTERNOON...OR UNTIL THE WARNING IS CANCELLED.
* AT  7:45 PM MONDAY THE STAGE WAS 21.2 FEET. 
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 17 FEET. 
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE RISING TO NEAR 22 FEET BY 
  EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE RIVER WILL FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE 
  FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
* IMPACT...AT 20 FEET...WIDESPREAD FLOODING OF LOWLANDS UPSTREAM AND
  DOWNSTREAM OF HIGHWAY 35 BRIDGE IS OCCURRING.

&&


              FLOOD    OBSERVED        FORECAST 6AM       CREST
LOCATION       STG   STG DAY  TIME   TUE   WED   THU CREST DAY  TIME

UPPER PEARL RIVER
CARTHAGE        17  21.2 MON 08 PM  21.5  21.9  20.7  22.0 WED 12 AM

$$

MSC079-162100-
/O.EXT.KJAN.FL.W.0073.000000T0000Z-081216T2100Z/
/GDHM6.1.ER.081214T1909Z.081215T1315Z.081216T0600Z.NO/
839 PM CST MON DEC 15 2008

...FLOOD WARNING EXTENDED UNTIL TUESDAY AFTERNOON...

  THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE PEARL RIVER NEAR LENA
* UNTIL EARLY TUESDAY MORNING...OR UNTIL THE WARNING IS CANCELLED.
* AT  7:30 PM MONDAY THE STAGE WAS 24.1 FEET. 
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 24 FEET. 
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE TO FALL TO BELOW FLOOD STAGE BY 
  MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.
* IMPACT...AT 24 FEET...MINOR FLOODING OF AGRICULTURAL AND PASTURE 
  LAND IS OCCURRIN ALONG THE RIVER.

&&


              FLOOD    OBSERVED        FORECAST 6AM       CREST
LOCATION       STG   STG DAY  TIME   TUE   WED   THU CREST DAY  TIME

UPPER PEARL RIVER
LENA            24  24.1 MON 07 PM  23.9  23.3  22.1     FALLING  

$$

MSC049-121-170838-
/O.EXT.KJAN.FL.W.0064.000000T0000Z-081220T2200Z/
/JACM6.1.ER.081212T0800Z.081217T0000Z.081220T0700Z.NO/
839 PM CST MON DEC 15 2008

  THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE PEARL RIVER AT JACKSON
* UNTIL EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...OR UNTIL THE WARNING IS CANCELLED.
* AT  6:45 PM MONDAY THE STAGE WAS 31 FEET. 
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 28 FEET. 
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE RISING TO NEAR 32.5 FEET BY 
  TOMORROW EVENING. THE RIVER WILL FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE EARLY 
  SATURDAY MORNING.
* IMPACT...AT 33 FEET...ROSEMARY ROAD IS CLOSED. SIDNEY STREET IS 
  IMPASSABLE. THERE IS WATER ON WEST STREET. THE PLAYING FIELD OFF 
  WESTBROOK ROAD IS UNDERWATER. THERE IS WATER ON NICHOLS AND 
  JULIENNE STREETS IN THE HIGHTOWER AREA HOWEVER, BOTH ARE PASSABLE.
  WATER IS APPROACHING PACKS AUTO DETAIL SHOP ON SOUTH WEST STREET.

&&


              FLOOD    OBSERVED        FORECAST 6AM       CREST
LOCATION       STG   STG DAY  TIME   TUE   WED   THU CREST DAY  TIME

MIDDLE PEARL RIVER
JACKSON         28  31.0 MON 07 PM  32.1  32.3  31.5  32.5 TUE 06 PM

$$

MSC029-127-170838-
/O.CON.KJAN.FL.W.0065.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/ROCM6.1.ER.000000T0000Z.081218T1200Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
839 PM CST MON DEC 15 2008

  THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE PEARL RIVER NEAR ROCKPORT
* UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE...OR UNTIL THE WARNING IS CANCELLED.
* AT  6:00 AM MONDAY THE STAGE WAS 27.5 FEET. 
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 25 FEET. 
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE RISING TO NEAR 30 FEET BY 
  THURSDAY MORNING.
* IMPACT...AT 30 FEET...WATER BEGINS TO BACK UP INTO HIGHER 
  AGRICULTURAL AND PASTURE LANDS, MAINLY ON THE SIMPSON COUNTY SIDE 
  OF THE RIVER.

&&


              FLOOD    OBSERVED        FORECAST 6AM       CREST
LOCATION       STG   STG DAY  TIME   TUE   WED   THU CREST DAY  TIME

MIDDLE PEARL RIVER
ROCKPORT        25  27.5 MON 06 AM  28.5  29.3  30.0  30.0 THU 06 AM

$$

MSC077-170838-
/O.CON.KJAN.FL.W.0066.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/MTCM6.2.ER.081212T1817Z.081219T0600Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
839 PM CST MON DEC 15 2008

  THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE PEARL RIVER NEAR MONTICELLO
* UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE...OR UNTIL THE WARNING IS CANCELLED.
* AT  7:15 PM MONDAY THE STAGE WAS 23.6 FEET. 
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MODERATE FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 22 FEET. 
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE RISING TO NEAR 25.5 FEET BY 
  EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.
* IMPACT...AT 26 FEET...7 MILES NORTH OF MONTICELLO, WATER COVERS 
  OLD HIGHWAY 27 NEAR ST. JAMES MISSIONARY BAPTIST CHURCH.

&&


              FLOOD    OBSERVED        FORECAST 6AM       CREST
LOCATION       STG   STG DAY  TIME   TUE   WED   THU CREST DAY  TIME

MIDDLE PEARL RIVER
MONTICELLO      22  23.6 MON 07 PM  23.9  24.5  25.1  25.5 FRI 12 AM

$$

MSC091-170838-
/O.EXT.KJAN.FL.W.0074.081219T0900Z-000000T0000Z/
/CLMM6.1.ER.081219T0900Z.081220T1200Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
839 PM CST MON DEC 15 2008

  THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE PEARL RIVER NEAR COLUMBIA
* FROM EARLY FRIDAY MORNING UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE...OR UNTIL THE 
  WARNING IS CANCELLED.
* AT  7:15 PM MONDAY THE STAGE WAS 15.9 FEET. 
* MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 17 FEET. 
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL RISE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE BY FRIDAY MORNING 
  AND WILL CONTINUE TO RISE TO NEAR 17.5 FEET BY SATURDAY MORNING.
* IMPACT...AT 18 FEET...LOW AREAS ALONG THE RIVER ARE INUNDATED.

&&


              FLOOD    OBSERVED        FORECAST 6AM       CREST
LOCATION       STG   STG DAY  TIME   TUE   WED   THU CREST DAY  TIME

LOWER PEARL RIVER
COLUMBIA        17  15.9 MON 07 PM  16.0  16.3  16.6  17.5 SAT 06 AM

$$
000 
WGUS84 KJAN 161540
FLSJAN
FLOOD STATEMENT 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON, MS
940 AM CST TUE DEC 16 2008


...THE FLOOD WARNING IS CANCELLED FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVERS 
IN MISSISSIPPI...
 
  PEARL RIVER NEAR LENA AFFECTING LEAKE COUNTY

SAFETY MESSAGE... DO NOT DRIVE OR WALK THROUGH AREAS WHERE WATER 
COVERS ROADWAYS THE WATER MAY BE DEEPER THAN IT APPEARS. PLEASE USE 
EXTREME CAUTION IF VENTURING NEAR RIVERBANKS. MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND 
IMMEDIATELY SHOULD RISING WATER THREATEN YOUR SAFETY. REMEMBER...TURN
AROUND, DONT DROWN

THE FOLLOWING FORECASTS ARE BASED ON RAINFALL THAT HAS OCCURRED, 
COMBINED WITH RAINFALL THAT IS FORECAST TO OCCUR OVER THE NEXT 12 
HOURS.

ADDITIONAL INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE AT (USE LOWER CASE LETTERS) 
HTTP://AHPS.SRH.NOAA.GOV/AHPS2/INDEX.PHP?WFO=JAN

THE NEXT REGULARLY SCHEDULED UPDATE IS EXPECTED TONIGHT BETWEEN 8 AND
10 PM.

MSC079-161610-
/O.CAN.KJAN.FL.W.0073.000000T0000Z-081216T2100Z/
/GDHM6.1.ER.081214T1909Z.081215T1315Z.081216T0705Z.NO/
940 AM CST TUE DEC 16 2008

THE FLOOD WARNING IS CANCELLED FOR THE PEARL RIVER NEAR LENA.
* AT  9:30 AM TUESDAY THE STAGE WAS 23.7 FEET. 
* THE RIVER FELL BELOW FLOOD STAGE AT  1:05 AM TUESDAY.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 24.0 FEET. 
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE FALLING AND WILL FALL TO 20.4
  FEET BY FRIDAY MORNING.

&&
 
              FLOOD    OBSERVED        FORECAST 6AM       CREST
LOCATION       STG   STG DAY  TIME   WED   THU   FRI CREST DAY  TIME

UPPER PEARL RIVER
LENA            24  23.7 TUE 09 AM  23.2  22.3  20.4 BELOW FLOOD STAGE        

$$

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this river flood warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Jackson, MS wrote its last area forecast discussion before this river flood warning went out at Dec 14, 3:45 PM CST, 11 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Dec 14, 3:45 PM CST, 11 minutes before
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
345 PM CST SUN DEC 14 2008

.SHORT TERM...MAIN FORECAST CONCERN OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL BE
THE IMPACTS OF A SURGE OF ARCTIC OF AIR HEADED TOWARD THE REGION.
THE COLD FRONT MARKING THE LEADING EDGE OF THE AIRMASS IS NOW
PUSHING INTO NORTHERN TEXAS...SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND CENTRAL
MISSOURI AND TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN DROPPING 20 TO 25 DEGREES IN THE
SPAN OF ONE HOUR BACK IN THAT DIRECTION. TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA OF
LEVEL OF COLD AIR WE ARE TALKING ABOUT...TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS RIGHT NOW IN MANY PORTIONS OF KANSAS.

THE TROUBLESOME PART OF THE FORECAST IS THAT THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW
FORECAST OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS IS NOT AT ALL CONDUCIVE FOR THIS
COLD FRONT TO COME SCREAMING SOUTHEAST INTO OUR REGION. BUT VERY
DENSE AND COLD AIRMASSES SUCH AS THIS HAVE A WAY OF PROGRESSING
SOUTH IN THE FACE OF UNFAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL WINDS. USUALLY THE
TREND IS FOR MODELS TO UNDERESTIMATE HOW FOR SOUTH THE COLD AIR WILL
GET (AND HOW POTENT IT WILL BE WHEN IT GETS THERE).

THE HIGHER RESOLUTION OFFERED BY THE NAM MODEL HAS THE BEST CHANCE
OF CAPTURING STRUCTURE AND NATURE OF SHALLOW COLD AIR AND HAVE
RELIED ON ITS TEMPERATURE FORECAST SOMEWHAT FOR TOMORROW THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT (DESPITE THE GFS BEING A BETTER OVERALL MODEL).
THINKING IS THAT WEAK LIFT FROM THE COMBO OF GULF MOISTURE RETURN
AND WEAK UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WILL GENERATE HIT AND MISS (GENERALLY
LIGHT) SHOWERS OVER THE AREA TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT OR
WEDNESDAY. MORE CONCENTRATED SHOWERS (AND PERHAPS A FEW ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS) SHOULD BE FOCUSED NEAR THE MENTIONED FRONTAL BOUNDARY
OVER THIS TIME FRAME WITH PRECIP HARDEST TO COME BY IN SOUTHEAST MS.
LATEST MAV GUIDANCE LOOKS TOO AGGRESSIVE WITH POPS OVER THIS PERIOD
DUE TO WEAK FORCING WE ARE DEALING WITH...SO I CUT BACK POPS 10 TO
15 POINTS IN MANY SPOTS.

REAL ISSUES COME IN WHEN TRYING TO FORECAST TEMPERATURES (AND ALSO
ANY WINDOW OF WINTRY PRECIP POTENTIAL). AS STATED...THE GFS IS NOT
GOING TO CAPTURE THE SHALLOW COLD AIR WELL...AND EVEN LEANING ON THE
COLDER NAM MODEL GUIDANCE PROBABLY STILL DOES NOT MAKE THE FORECAST
COLD ENOUGH (AT LEAST OVER MY NORTHWEST ZONES). THE UPPER LEVEL
PATTERN WILL SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S AND LOWS AROUND
60 BY TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...BUT THE PRESENCE OF ANY LINGERING
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL KEEP IT MUCH COOLER. SO...FOR NOW...I HAVE
GONE SOMEWHAT COOLER/COLDER THAN THE MAV GUIDANCE IN AT LEAST THE
NORTHWEST HALF OF ZONES MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL LIKELY
NEED TO BE TWEAKED (PROBABLY COLDER) FOR A PERIOD OR TWO IN THE
COMING SHIFTS...BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO GO FOR THE
GUSTO AT THIS JUNCTURE.

OH YEA...TOMORROW EVENING/TOMORROW NIGHT/EARLY
TUESDAY...TEMPERATURES COULD GET COLD ENOUGH TO BRING A WINDOW OF
FREEZING RAIN POTENTIAL INTO NORTHWEST DELTA ZONES. ATMOSPHERIC TEMP
PROFILES WILL BE TOO WARM FOR ANYTHING OTHER THAN FREEZING RAIN IF
THE SURFACE GETS DOWN TO 32 DEGREES OR BELOW. SOME OFFICES TO MY
NORTH HAVE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES/WATCHES POSTED FOR LATE
TOMORROW AND IT IS POSSIBLE SOME OF THESE ADVISORIES MAY HAVE TO BE
EXTENDED FURTHER SOUTH IF COLD AIR DOES NOT MODIFY ENOUGH AS IT
HEADS THIS WAY. A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY HERE AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
WAS KEPT CLEAR OF FREEZING RAIN FOR NOW...ALTHOUGH THE HWO HINTS AT
THE SLIGHT POSSIBILITIES. BEST TO MONITOR ANY FORECAST DEVELOPMENTS
CLOSELY IF YOU LIVE IN NORTHWEST MS OR EXTREME SE AR.
FORTUNATELY...GENERALLY LIGHT PRECIP AMOUNTS EXPECTED SHOULD KEEP
ANY MAJOR ICING FROM OCCURRING IN THESE AREAS IF TEMPS SHOULD HAPPEN
TO GET DOWN TO CRITICAL LEVELS. /BB/

.LONG TERM...MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THE WHOLE REGION WILL WARM
UP TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE LATTER PORTION OF THE WORK WEEK WITH
A FEW SHOWER CHANCES REMAINING. ANY LINGERING IMPACT OF THE ARCTIC
FRONT WILL BE GONE BY THEN.

MODELS ALSO CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER SERIOUS
ARCTIC PLUNGE HEADED IN THIS DIRECTION FOR SOMETIME NEXT WEEKEND.
ASSOCIATED PRECIP CHANCES ARE QUESTIONABLE...BUT TRENDS WILL BE
WATCHED. PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR THESE TIME PERIODS WAS VERY CLOSE TO
GUIDANCE...AND I MADE NO ADJUSTMENTS. /BB/

&&

.AVIATION...MOST SITES STILL HAVE CEILINGS 7-8KFT AND VFR CONDITIONS
PREVAILING BUT JACKSON WAS REPORTING A FEW AT 3000FT AND MERIDIAN WAS
REPORTING A CEILING AT 2100FT. CEILINGS WILL LOWER BELOW 3000FT THIS
EVENING FROM THE WEST AND THE SOUTHEAST AND CONTINUE TO DROP TO NEAR
1000FT BY 10Z. IFR/LIFR VISIBILITIES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE
ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTHEAST BETWEEN 09 AND 13Z MON. GUSTY SOUTHEAST
WINDS WERE BEING REPORTED ACROSS THE AREA WITH HIGHEST WINDS IN THE
WEST. THE GUSTY CHARACTER OF THE WINDS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING.
SOME LIGHT RAIN WAS SHOWN ON RADAR IN THE NORTHWEST AND MOVING
TOWARD HBG AND MEI FROM THE SOUTH IN THE EAST. GREATER RAIN CHANCES
ARE EXPECTED MONDAY AS A COLD FRONT DROPS INTO THE AREA. /22/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       56  65  48  61 /  17  48  65  39
MERIDIAN      55  68  52  68 /  32  36  46  43
VICKSBURG     57  63  48  57 /  28  56  75  37
HATTIESBURG   56  72  59  71 /  19  19  32  37
NATCHEZ       59  68  52  63 /  17  43  68  33
GREENVILLE    52  55  37  47 /  53  76  88  47
GREENWOOD     56  58  41  52 /  48  72  83  57

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR MSZ018-019-
     025>045-047>051-053>056-059>063.

LA...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR LAZ007>009-
     015-016-023>026.

AR...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR ARZ074-075.

&&

50/22
Hazardous weather outlook, Dec 14, 2:37 PM CST, 1 hour 19 minutes before
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
237 PM CST SUN DEC 14 2008

ARZ074-075-MSZ018-019-025-034-152045-
ASHLEY-CHICOT-BOLIVAR-SUNFLOWER-LEFLORE-WASHINGTON-
237 PM CST SUN DEC 14 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST MISSISSIPPI...
AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT AND MONDAY

THE WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN CANCELLED...HOWEVER A LAKE WIND ADVISORY
IS IN NOW EFFECT FOR SOUTH WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS
UNTIL 6 PM THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL SUBSIDE TO BELOW 15 MPH THIS
EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY

THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN EARLY TUESDAY MORNING
OVER PORTIONS OF THE DELTA. VERY COLD AIR WILL BE FILTERING INTO THE
AREA FROM THE NORTH WHILE LIGHT RAIN MAY STILL BE FALLING. ELEVATED
SURFACES SUCH AS BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES WILL HAVE THE GREATEST CHANCE
OF SEEING ANY FREEZING RAIN. CONFIDENCE IS LOW OF THIS EVENT
OCCURRING AND RESIDENTS SHOULD REMAIN ALERT TO FURTHER UPDATES.
OTHERWISE...THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW
TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY.

LAZ007>009-015-016-023>026-MSZ026>033-035>045-047>051-053>056-
059>063-152045-
MOREHOUSE-WEST CARROLL-EAST CARROLL-RICHLAND-MADISON LA-
FRANKLIN LA-CATAHOULA-TENSAS-CONCORDIA-GRENADA-CARROLL-MONTGOMERY-
WEBSTER-CLAY-LOWNDES-CHOCTAW-OKTIBBEHA-HUMPHREYS-HOLMES-ATTALA-
WINSTON-NOXUBEE-ISSAQUENA-SHARKEY-YAZOO-MADISON MS-LEAKE-NESHOBA-
WARREN-HINDS-RANKIN-SCOTT-NEWTON-CLAIBORNE-COPIAH-SIMPSON-SMITH-
JEFFERSON-ADAMS-FRANKLIN MS-LINCOLN-LAWRENCE-
237 PM CST SUN DEC 14 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WEST CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...
AND NORTHEAST LOUISIANA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT AND MONDAY

A LAKE WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR SOUTH WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH WITH
HIGHER GUSTS TODAY. WINDS WILL SUBSIDE TO BELOW 15 MPH THIS EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY.

MSZ046-052-057-058-064>066-072>074-152045-
KEMPER-LAUDERDALE-JASPER-CLARKE-JEFFERSON DAVIS-COVINGTON-JONES-
MARION-LAMAR-FORREST-
237 PM CST SUN DEC 14 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...
NORTHEAST LOUISIANA...AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT AND MONDAY

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY.

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE AT
WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/JAN. THIS INCLUDES THE GRAPHICAL HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK.

22

Nearby

River Flood Warnings in Mississippi, 2008Every river flood warning in 2008

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive; the gauge from the NWS water service and the USGS.