River Flood Warning 51, NWS Jackson, MS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
300 PM CDT TUE SEP 9 2008

.DISCUSSION...

NEAR TERM: NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES ARE NEEDED TO THE FORECAST GRIDS
THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT CURRENTLY DRAPED ACROSS
NRN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. VERY MOIST AIR (2.12 PRECIPITABLE
WATER ON 12Z JAN RAOB) IS AVAILABLE ALONG WITH MIXED LAYER CAPES >
1500 J/KG WITH LITTLE CONVECTIVE INHIBITION. STRONG INSOLATION HAS
INCREASED DIFFERENTIAL HEATING NEAR FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND THIS IS
LEADING TO SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS/TSTMS AS WE GO THROUGH
THE AFTN. 0-6KM SHEAR OF 15-20KTS WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF MULTICELL
CLUSTERS...GIVEN STRENGTH OF INSTABILITY WILL MAINTAIN STRONG
WORDING IN THE HWO.

TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL STALL
AND BECOME MORE DIFFUSE WITH TIME AND EXPECT RAIN CHANCES TO BE
SMALLER. SUMMER-LIKE HEAT WILL CONTINUE FOR WED AFTN AND ENOUGH
MOISTURE/INSTABILITY WILL BE IN PLACE FOR DIURNAL CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT.

FOR THURSDAY AND BEYOND...IKE IS STILL THE BIG CONCERN AS IT IS
FORECAST TO TRACK ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN GULF BEFORE MAKING
LANDFALL AND RECURVING NORTH TO NE IN THE WESTERLIES. IT APPEARS
LANDFALL WILL BE SOMEWHERE ON THE TEXAS COAST...BUT WHAT IKE DOES
AFTER LANDFALL WILL HAVE THE BIGGEST IMPACT ON OUR WEATHER. BASED ON
CURRENT HPC FORECAST AT DAYS 6/7...WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA
COULD EXPECT A RISK FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AND A FEW TORNADOES. SOME
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS IKE COULD TURN A LITTLE MORE SHARPLY TO THE
NORTHEAST AFFECT MORE OF THE AREA SO ALL RESIDENTS IN THE ARKLAMISS
SHOULD KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON IKE FORECAST UPDATES. IN ANY CASE...
EXPECT AN INCREASE IN DEEP MOISTURE THURSDAY/FRIDAY AS MOIST
SOUTHEAST FLOW NORTH OF IKE INCREASES OVER THE FORECAST AREA. THIS
WILL LEAD TO AN INCREASE IN DIURNAL CONVECTIVE CHANCES FOR THOSE
DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BRING OCCASIONAL MVFR
CONDITIONS TO GWO/GLH/GTR AND JAN THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A
SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT DRIFTS SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA. IFR CONDITIONS
WITH 1 TO 2 HUNDRED FOOT CEILINGS WILL BE POSSIBLE VERY EARLY
TOMORROW MORNING IN STRATUS AND FOG OVER MOST SITES./15/

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.

&&

EC/15

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