River Flood Warning 30, NWS Jackson, MS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
425 AM CDT THU MAY 15 2008

TODAY AND TONIGHT...RIGHT OUT OF THE GATE THIS
MORNING...TORNADO WATCH 325 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 AM FOR A GOOD
PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA.  CONVECTION IS ONGOING THIS MORNING
ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA AS A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES MAKE THEIR RUN ON THE FORECAST AREA ALONG A COLD FRONT
THAT IS SLOWLY DROPPING SOUTHEAST ACROSS SOUTHWEST TENNESSEE...
INTO CENTRAL ARKANSAS...AND INTO NORTHEAST TEXAS.  THIS LOOKS LIKE
ITLL BE THE CALL OF THE DAY ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA UNTIL
THE FRONT PUSHES SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA LATE TONIGHT.

AS THESE DISTURBANCES MOVE ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE COLD FRONT IN A
VERY WARM AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS...CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH TODAY THAT
MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL SEE A GOOD BIT OF RAINFALL AT SOME
POINT IN TIME THROUGHOUT THE DAY...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
FLOODING TO OCCUR.  AS A RESULT...IVE INCREASE POPS ACROSS THE
ENTIRE AREA TODAY...AND WILL OBVIOUSLY KEEP THE CURRENT FLASH FLOOD
WATCH FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA GOING.

WITH THAT SAID THOUGH...THE ONLY REAL FLY IN THE OINTMENT PER SAY IS
THE POTENTIAL OF A BROAD AREA OF CONVECTION FIRING FAR ENOUGH TO THE
SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA TO WHERE WE COULD ESSENTIALLY GET CUT
OFF.  STILL...MY THINKING IS THAT EVEN IF THAT OCCURS ITLL BE MORE
OF A HAMPER IN TERMS OF SEVERE STORM POTENTIAL OVER THE AREA...AND
NOT IN TERMS OF HURTING THE SPREAD OF SOAKING RAINS ACROSS THE
ARKLAMISS REGION.

THAT BRINGS ME TO THE NEXT TOPIC OF DISCUSSION...SEVERE STORM
POTENTIAL.  THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS WILL EXIST ACROSS THE
ENTIRE FORECAST AREA TODAY...BUT WILL TAPER OFF BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT AS IT DROPS SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.  ESSENTIALLY...WITH THE ABUNDANCE OF MOISTURE POOLED OVER
THE REGION COUPLED WITH DAYTIME HEATING...INCREASING INSTABILITY...
FORCING ALONG THE FRONT...AND ALTHOUGH DEEP LAYER WIND SHEAR
DECREASES SLIGHTLY...ITLL STILL BE SUFFICIENT ENOUGH TO KEEP A RISK
OF SEVERE STORMS OVER THE AREA TODAY AND INTO THIS EVENING...
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTH WHERE THE BETTER INSTABILITY LOOKS TO
EXIST LATER TODAY.  IT LOOKS LIKE ALL MODES OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL
BE POSSIBLE THROUGHOUT THE DAY TODAY.

AS WE MOVE INTO THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS TONIGHT...THE COLD
FRONT WILL CONTINUE PUSHING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE CWA.  RAINFALL
SHOULD BE ENDING BEHIND THE FRONT IN THE PROCESS...WITH MOST IF NOT
ALL OF THE ACTIVITY CONFINED TO LOCATIONS MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 20 THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS...AND THEN PROGRESSING
FURTHER SOUTH THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.  THE SEVERE POTENTIAL
WILL ALSO CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING...BUT AS WE BEGIN TO LOSE
HEATING...THIS POTENTIAL IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE. /19/

FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY...FRIDAY APPEARS TO BE ANOTHER
CLOUDY...WET...AND COOL DAY. EVEN THOUGH THE FRONT WILL LIKELY HAVE
PUSHED SOUTH INTO SRN MS/LA WE WILL STILL BE EMBEDDED IN SW FLOW.
ANOTHER PIECE OF ENERGY IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE GULF COAST
STATES AND LOOKS TO BREAK OUT ADDITIONAL SHRA AND POSSIBLY ISLTD
TSRA....MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA. MOST OF THE RAIN
SHOULD BE OUT OF THE AREA BY LATE AFTN BUT SOME LINGERING SHRA COULD
REMAIN OVER THE EXTREME SE INTO THE EARLY EVN HRS.

.LONG TERM...MEDIUM RANGE MDLS SEEM TO BE IN DECENT AGREEMENT
OVERALL THROUGH MON AND THEN SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES OCCUR. THE AREA
WILL GO UNDER NW FLOW THIS WEEKEND AND PERSIST INTO MON WITH A WEAK
FRONT LATE SUN. IT IS AT THIS POINT WHERE THE MDLS START TO GO IN
OPPOSITE DIRECTIONS. THE ECMWF START TO LOSE THE DOMINATE ERN CONUS
TROUGH TUE AND THEN QUICKLY TRANSITIONS INTO A DEEP CLOSED LOW OVER
THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE BY WED NIGHT. THE GFS HOLDS ONTO A ERN CONUS
TROUGH WITH A LARGE RIDGE OVER THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. WITH SUCH
LARGE DISCREPANCIES CONFIDENCE IN THE FCST IS NOT VERY HIGH BUT WITH
THE WAY THE GFS HAS OUTPERFORMED THE ECMWF FOR ABOUT THE LAST MONTH
I WILL STICK CLOSELY TO THE GFS SOLN.

SAT SHOULD BE THE QUIETEST DAY OF THE FCST BUT LIGHT RAIN LOOKS TO
RE-ENTER THE FCST ON SUN. DRIER AIR WILL HAVE ALREADY FILTERED IN
AND WITH NW FLOW BOTH IN THE MID LEVELS AND AT THE SFC THINGS WILL
REMAIN QUIET ON SAT. BY SUN RETURN FLOW NEVER REALLY SETS BACK UP
BUT SOME MOISTURE WILL TRY TO BUILD AHEAD OF A WEAK FRONT THAT WILL
APPROACH THE ARKLAMISS SUN AFTN. THIS WILL BE DRIVEN SOUTH BY A
DISTURBANCE IN THE NW FLOW AND COULD HELP TO DEVELOP LIGHT SHRA
AND POSSIBLY AN ISLTD TSRA LATE SUN AFTN AND OVERNIGHT.

MON NW FLOW WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA BUT INSTEAD OF DRIVING THE
FRONT ALL THE WAY THROUGH THE CWA IT ACTUALLY LOSES ITS IDENTITY
AND RETURN FLOW FINALLY STARTS TO SET BACK UP. THE MID LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL HAVE PUSHED THROUGH ENDING JUST ABOUT ALL RAIN
CHANCES EARLY MON MORNING. TUE WILL LIKELY REMAIN QUIET BUT WITH NW
FLOW PROBABLY SENDING A WEAK IMPULSE INTO THE AREA AND THE ENERGY
OVER THE BAHA REGION STARTING TO PHASE BACK IN LIGHT SHRA COULD
DEVELOP ESPECIALLY AS THE MOISTURE INCREASES.

BETTER RAIN CHANCES LOOK TO RETURN EARLY WED AS ANOTHER FRONT
APPROACHES THE AREA. WITH NW FLOW CONTINUING IT WILL TRY TO DRIVE
ANOTHER COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA THIS FRONT LOOKS TO BE A LITTLE
STRONGER THAN THE ONE LATE SUN. ALSO THERE SHOULD BE MORE MOISTURE
TO WORK WITH AND SLIGHTLY BETTER INSTABILITY AND WITH THAT TSRA WILL
BE POSSIBLE. IT IS STILL A GOOD WAYS OUT THERE BUT THERE COULD BE A
FEW STRONG AND POSSIBLY AND ISLTD SEVERE OR TWO BUT I WILL HOLD OFF
ON MENTIONING ANYTHING IN THE HWO AT THIS TIME.

AS FOR CHANGES TO GUI I HAVE STUCK CLOSE TO THE MEX VALUES AND HAVE
MADE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES ANYWHERE IN THE FCST. /CAB/

&&

.AVIATION...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE SPREADING ACROSS AREAS MAINLY
ALONG AND NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE 20 CORRIDOR THIS MORNING. EXPECT
ANY STORMS TO HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS... FREQUENT
LIGHTNING...AND GUSTY WINDS. AWAY FROM THIS ACTIVITY... CONDITIONS
WILL BE LARGE IFR TO MVFR THROUGH A COMBO OF LOW CLOUDS AND CEILINGS.
EXPECT AREAS OF RAIN AND EMBEDDED STORMS TO BE RATHER WIDESPREAD
ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY
TODAY. CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT SLOWLY SINKS SOUTH THROUGH THE
ARKLAMISS REGION. /19/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       81  63  72  53 / 100  50  45  11
MERIDIAN      81  62  73  54 / 100  52  46  13
VICKSBURG     81  62  72  51 / 100  53  38   9
HATTIESBURG   83  67  75  57 / 100  66  71  13
NATCHEZ       81  63  70  53 / 100  54  50   9
GREENVILLE    79  59  74  51 / 100  33  16   7
GREENWOOD     79  59  74  51 / 100  31  21   7

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL NOON CDT TODAY FOR MSZ018-019-025>066-
     072>074.

LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL NOON CDT TODAY FOR LAZ007>009-015-016-
     023>026.

AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL NOON CDT TODAY FOR ARZ074-075.

&&

19/CAB

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
505 AM CDT THU MAY 15 2008

ARZ074-075-LAZ007>009-015-016-023>026-MSZ018-019-025>066-072>074-
161015-
ASHLEY-CHICOT-MOREHOUSE-WEST CARROLL-EAST CARROLL-RICHLAND-
MADISON LA-FRANKLIN LA-CATAHOULA-TENSAS-CONCORDIA-BOLIVAR-
SUNFLOWER-LEFLORE-GRENADA-CARROLL-MONTGOMERY-WEBSTER-CLAY-LOWNDES-
CHOCTAW-OKTIBBEHA-WASHINGTON-HUMPHREYS-HOLMES-ATTALA-WINSTON-
NOXUBEE-ISSAQUENA-SHARKEY-YAZOO-MADISON MS-LEAKE-NESHOBA-KEMPER-
WARREN-HINDS-RANKIN-SCOTT-NEWTON-LAUDERDALE-CLAIBORNE-COPIAH-
SIMPSON-SMITH-JASPER-CLARKE-JEFFERSON-ADAMS-FRANKLIN MS-LINCOLN-
LAWRENCE-JEFFERSON DAVIS-COVINGTON-JONES-MARION-LAMAR-FORREST-
505 AM CDT THU MAY 15 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...
NORTHEAST LOUISIANA...AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS
MUCH OF THE OUTLOOK AREA TODAY. AS A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES MOVE ALONG AND AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL DROP INTO
THE OUTLOOK AREA LATER TODAY WHERE AN ALREADY WARM...MOIST...AND
UNSTABLE AIRMASS EXITS. THIS COMBINED WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND
ADEQUATE WIND SHEAR WILL ALLOW THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS TO
DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION. HAIL...STRONG DAMAGING WINDS...AND A FEW
TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY SEVERE STORMS.

WHILE THE SEVERE RISK WILL END ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
AREA LATER THIS AFTERNOON...IT WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY EVENING
HOURS OVER LOCATIONS MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE 20
CORRIDOR. HOWEVER...AS DAYTIME HEATING IS LOST...AND SEVERE ACTIVITY
REMAINING IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN.

IN ADDITION...PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER MUCH OF
THE AREA TODAY. THE MAIN AREA OF CONCERN WILL BE ALONG AND NORTH OF
THE I-20 CORRIDOR THURSDAY MORNING. HOWEVER PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL
ARE ALSO POSSIBLE OVER AREAS SOUTH OF I-20 THIS AFTERNOON. FLOODING
OF STREETS...AND IN LOW LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS WILL BE
POSSIBLE DURING THIS TIME. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS FROM 2 TO 5
INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY

THE PROBABILITY OF WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS...MAY BE NEEDED THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS EVENING.

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE AT
WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/JAN. THIS INCLUDES THE GRAPHICAL HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK.

19

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
827 AM CDT THU MAY 15 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0815 AM     FLASH FLOOD      RIDGELAND               32.42N 90.13W
05/15/2008                   MADISON            MS   NWS EMPLOYEE

            ON THE SOUTHBOUND SIDE OF HIGHLAND COLONY NEAR LIVINGSTON
            RD...ONE LANE IS IMPASSIBLE AND CLOSED DUE TO NEARLY A
            FOOT OF WATER OVER IT. THE SECOND LANE IS PASSIBLE BUT IS
            COVERED BY WATER.

&&

WESTER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
941 AM CDT THU MAY 15 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0941 AM     FLASH FLOOD      EDEN                    32.99N 90.32W
05/15/2008                   YAZOO              MS   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            WATER FLOWING ACROSS US HWY 49. BARRIERS BEING PUT UP.

&&

AEG

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1022 AM CDT THU MAY 15 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0957 AM     TSTM WND DMG     5 SW PURVIS             31.09N 89.47W
05/15/2008                   LAMAR              MS   EMERGENCY MNGR

            NUMEROUS TREES DOWN BLOCKING ROADS BETWEEN PURVIS AND
            LUMBERTON. POSSIBLE TORNADO.

1001 AM     TSTM WND DMG     1 E PURVIS              31.14N 89.39W
05/15/2008                   LAMAR              MS   EMERGENCY MNGR

            ROOF DAMAGE TO PURVIS MULTIPURPOSE CENTER. TREES DOWN AT
            INTERSECTION OF HWY 589 AND US HWY 11. POSSIBLE TORNADO.

&&

AEG

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1024 AM CDT THU MAY 15 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1023 AM     TORNADO          CAMP SHELBY             31.18N 89.25W
05/15/2008                   FORREST            MS   EMERGENCY MNGR

            TWO EMA SPOTTERS CONFIRM TORNADO ON THE GROUND AT THE
            SOUTH GATE OF CAMP SHELBY.

&&

AEG

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1025 AM CDT THU MAY 15 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1017 AM     FLASH FLOOD      MORTON                  32.36N 89.66W
05/15/2008                   SCOTT              MS   EMERGENCY MNGR

            SEVERAL ROADS FLOODED IN FOREST AND MORTON. BUSINESS
            TAKING ON WATER AT INTERSECTION OF HWY 35 AND 80.

&&

HAMRICK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1054 AM CDT THU MAY 15 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1023 AM     TORNADO          CAMP SHELBY             31.18N 89.25W
05/15/2008                   FORREST            MS   EMERGENCY MNGR

            UPDATED REPORT. TWO EMA SPOTTERS REPORTED TORNADO ON THE
            GROUND AT THE SOUTH GATE OF CAMP SHELBY. NUMEROUS TREES
            REPORTED DOWNED IN THE AREA...ONE FELL ACROSS A MOBILE
            HOME.

&&

AEG