Flash Flood Warning 81, NWS Jackson, MS

000 
WGUS74 KJAN 212104
FFSJAN

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
404 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2008

MSC079-099-101-123-212300-
/O.CON.KJAN.FF.W.0081.000000T0000Z-080821T2300Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
NEWTON MS-SCOTT MS-LEAKE MS-NESHOBA MS-
404 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2008

...A FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 600 PM CDT FOR
NESHOBA...LEAKE...SCOTT AND NEWTON COUNTIES...

AT 403 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGIST CONTINUED TO 
INDICATE A CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING FLASH FLOODING OVER 
THE WARNED AREA.

LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO DOWDVILLE...
NESHOBA...DIXON...MADDEN...EDINBURG...PHILADELPHIA AND PEARL RIVER

ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN THE 
WARNED AREA IN A VERY SHORT AMOUNT OF TIME.

EXCESSIVE RUNOFF FROM HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CAUSE FLOODING OF SMALL 
CREEKS...STREAMS AND COUNTRY ROADS.

LAT...LON 3284 8948 3283 8908 3238 8907 3239 8950

$$

BANNAN

000 
WGUS74 KJAN 212140
FFSJAN

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
440 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2008

MSC079-099-101-123-212150-
/O.CAN.KJAN.FF.W.0081.000000T0000Z-080821T2300Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
NEWTON MS-SCOTT MS-LEAKE MS-NESHOBA MS-
440 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2008

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED FOR NESHOBA...LEAKE...
SCOTT AND NEWTON COUNTIES...

THE STORMS THAT PROMPTED THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING HAS WEAKENED 
CONSIDERABLY AND NO LONGER POSE A FLASH FLOOD THREAT.

LAT...LON 3284 8948 3283 8908 3238 8907 3239 8950

$$

BANNAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
246 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2008

.SHORT TERM...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS THE UPPER LOW
LIFTING NORTH INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION. TROPICAL STORM
FAY IS ALSO SPINNING OVER THE NORTHEAST COAST OF FL.  RADAR IMAGERY
SHOWS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER PORTIONS OF THE
ARKLAMISS REGION.  THIS IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING
HOURS.  ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO DIE DOWN AFTER SUNSET. WITH THE
UPPER LOW DRIFTING TO THE NORTH...THE AREA WILL BE LOSING ANY
FORCING MECHANISM.  SO AS HEATING DIES DOWN ACTIVITY SHOULD BEGIN TO
DIE DOWN AS WELL.  THIS WILL LEAVE FOR A QUIET NIGHT WITH LESS CLOUD
COVER OVER THE AREA THAN WE HAVE SEEN IN PREVIOUS NIGHTS.  THE UPPER
TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTH FOR FRIDAY AND INTO SATURDAY.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR DECREASING RAIN CHANCES OVER THE CWFA FOR THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.  THERE WILL STILL BE PLENTY OF MOISTURE
LINGERING OVER THE AREA...WHICH WILL STILL ALLOW FOR SOME SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP...MAINLY OVER THE NORTHWESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE CWFA IN THE AFTERNOONS AND EVENINGS. OVERALL THROUGH
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS DO NOT ANTICIPATE MUCH OF A RISK FOR
STRONG/SEVERE STORMS.  CAN NOT RULE OUT THE POSSIBILITY OF ONE OR
TWO STORMS TO BECOME STRONG EACH AFTERNOON...BUT THE RISK SHOULD NOT
BE HIGH ENOUGH TO MENTION IN THE AFTERNOON HWO.  WITH SUCH A MOIST
AIRMASS IN PLACE OVER THE REGION THERE WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE
POSSIBILITY FOR HEAVY RAINFALL WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT
DEVELOP.

HIGH TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY SHOULD BE A LITTLE WARMER THAN WE HAVE
SEEN EARLIER THIS WEEK.  WITH THE UPPER LOW LIFTING NORTH A
BIT...THERE WILL BE LESS CLOUD COVER TO KEEP TEMPERATURES DOWN. THIS
WILL ESPECIALLY BE TRUE OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWFA.
TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY SHOULD BE ABLE TO REACH THE LOWER 90S OVER
MOST OF THE AREA.  LOW TEMPERATURES SHOULD TYPICALLY BE IN THE LOWER
70S OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF NIGHTS. FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE CWFA SHOULD BEGIN TO SEE INCREASED CLOUD COVER
AND POSSIBLY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING INTO THE REGION AS THE
OUTSKIRTS OF FAY REACHES THIS AREA.  THIS SHOULD LIMIT TEMPERATURES
FROM RISING TOO MUCH THOSE AFTERNOONS...ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY.
OVERALL HAVE REMAINED WITH GUI THROUGH THE NEXT FEW DAYS FOR
TEMPERATURES.

THE BIG STORY FOR THE FORECAST WILL BE WHAT HAPPENS WITH TROPICAL
STORM FAY.  THE LATEST FORECAST TRACK FROM THE HURRICANE CENTER
BRINGS FAY SKIRTING ACROSS THE FL PANHANDLE COAST AND INTO
SOUTHEASTERN MISSISSIPPI AS A DEPRESSION.  OBVIOUSLY IF THIS TRACK
IS SHIFTED AT ALL OVER THE GULF THINGS COULD BE A LITTLE DIFFERENT
REGARDING THE STRENGTH.  BUT REGARDLESS...FAY COULD PRESENT A HEAVY
RAIN POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES FOR THE LATE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK TIME FRAME. /14/

.LONG TERM...BY SUNDAY MORNING THERE IS CONSIDERABLE DIFFERENCE IN
THE MODELS WITH THE POSITION AND STRENGTH OF THE CENTER OF FAY. BOTH
GFS AND ECMWF BEGIN TO PIVOT THE REMNANTS OF FAY BACK TO THE EAST
NORTHEAST FROM SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI ON MONDAY. THE ECMWF IS FASTER
AND FARTHER NORTH OVER ALABAMA TUESDAY THAN THE GFS BUT...EITHER
SCENARIO WOULD RESULT IN DRIER AIR BACK OVER OUR CWFA FROM THE WEST
BY WEDNESDAY. THE MAIN CONCERN WITH FAY THIS MORNING FOR OUR AREA IS
THE POTENTIAL RAINFALL OVER OUR SOUTHEAST. CONSIDERING THE MOIST
SOILS ALREADY OVER THE AREA FLASH FLOOD WATCHES MAY BE NEEDED IN THE
SOUTH BY THIS WEEKEND. /22/

&&

.AVIATION...SOME SCATTERED TO BROKEN MID TO HIGH CEILINGS WAS
OBSERVED ACROSS THE REGION. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL
THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
AGAIN BE POSSIBLE FOR MUCH OF THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE
EARLY EVENING HOURS...ESPECIALLY AT SITES LOCATED ALONG AND WEST OF
INTERSTATE 55...KJAN...KGLH...AND KGWO. CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES
WILL BRIEFLY BE REDUCED TO MVFR/IFR FLIGHT CATEGORIES AT SITES WHERE
CONVECTION IS OBSERVED. SOME PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE AT MOST
LOCATIONS ON FRIDAY MORNING...WHICH COULD BRIEFLY LEAD TO MVFR
VISIBILITIES AT MOST SITES...EXCEPT AT HBG WHERE SOME IFR CEILINGS
AND VISIBILITIES IS EXPECTED AFTER 09Z. ANY FOG THAT DEVELOPS IN THE
MORNING...SHOULD DISSIPATE BY 14Z...WHICH WILL BRING VFR CONDITIONS
AREA WIDE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       70  91  71  88 /  23  34  30  56
MERIDIAN      70  90  70  86 /  21  18  34  62
VICKSBURG     71  91  71  89 /  23  44  24  51
HATTIESBURG   71  93  72  88 /  22  27  25  49
NATCHEZ       71  90  70  88 /  24  41  22  52
GREENVILLE    70  90  70  89 /  31  51  34  50
GREENWOOD     70  90  70  89 /  31  44  40  50

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

14/17/22

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
140 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2008

ARZ074-075-LAZ007>009-015-016-023>026-MSZ018-019-025>049-053-054-
059>062-221830-
ASHLEY-CHICOT-MOREHOUSE-WEST CARROLL-EAST CARROLL-RICHLAND-
MADISON LA-FRANKLIN LA-CATAHOULA-TENSAS-CONCORDIA-BOLIVAR-
SUNFLOWER-LEFLORE-GRENADA-CARROLL-MONTGOMERY-WEBSTER-CLAY-LOWNDES-
CHOCTAW-OKTIBBEHA-WASHINGTON-HUMPHREYS-HOLMES-ATTALA-WINSTON-
NOXUBEE-ISSAQUENA-SHARKEY-YAZOO-MADISON MS-LEAKE-NESHOBA-KEMPER-
WARREN-HINDS-RANKIN-CLAIBORNE-COPIAH-JEFFERSON-ADAMS-FRANKLIN MS-
LINCOLN-
140 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...
NORTHEAST LOUISIANA...AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT AND FRIDAY

PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...NORTHEAST LOUISIANA...AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST
ARKANSAS FOR THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. THE COMBINATION
OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVING NORTHEAST OUT OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
AND INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY...AND A VERY MOIST AIRMASS
IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION...WILL ALLOW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP ACROSS THE OUTLOOK AREA. SOME OF THE ACTIVITY THAT DEVELOPS
THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL THAT
COULD LEAD TO THE PONDING OF WATER ON AREA ROADS...AS WELL AS IN LOW
LYING AREAS AND IN AREAS WHERE DRAINAGE IS POOR.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY.

MSZ050>052-055>058-063>066-072>074-221830-
SCOTT-NEWTON-LAUDERDALE-SIMPSON-SMITH-JASPER-CLARKE-LAWRENCE-
JEFFERSON DAVIS-COVINGTON-JONES-MARION-LAMAR-FORREST-
140 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...
NORTHEAST LOUISIANA...AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT AND FRIDAY

PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF EAST
AND SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI FOR THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. THE
COMBINATION OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVING NORTHEAST OUT OF THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS AND INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY...AND A
VERY MOIST AIRMASS IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION...WILL ALLOW SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE OUTLOOK AREA. SOME OF THE
ACTIVITY THAT DEVELOPS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
HEAVY RAINFALL THAT COULD LEAD TO THE PONDING OF WATER ON AREA
ROADS...AS WELL AS IN LOW LYING AREAS AND IN AREAS WHERE DRAINAGE IS
POOR.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY

PERIODS OF VERY HEAVY RAINFALL LEADING TO THE PONDING OF WATER ON
ROADS...LOW LYING AREAS AND AREAS OF POOR DRAINAGE WILL BE POSSIBLE
OVER SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI SUNDAY. THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL STORM
FAY IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING. THIS MAY LEAD TO SEVERAL PERIODS OF VERY HEAVY RAINFALL FOR
LONG DURATIONS OVER THE SAME AREAS SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. LIGHTER
RAINFALL IS EXPECTED MONDAY AND NO ADDITIONAL HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS
EXPECTED MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY.

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE AT
WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/JAN. THIS INCLUDES THE GRAPHICAL HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK.

17

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
133 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2008

MSZ032-033-211920-
OKTIBBEHA MS-CHOCTAW MS-
133 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2008

A STRONG THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING 40 TO 50 MPH WINDS WAS
LOCATED 6 MILES SOUTHEAST OF REFORM...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 12 MPH.
THE STORM WILL REMAIN OVER RURAL CHOCTAW AND OKTIBBEHA COUNTIES.

VERY HEAVY RAIN ALONG WITH CONTINUOUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING ARE
LIKELY WITH THIS STORM.

HIGH WINDS CAN BRING DOWN TREES AND LARGE LIMBS RESULTING IN SERIOUS
INJURY OR PROPERTY DAMAGE. EXERCISE EXTREME CAUTION WHEN OUTDOORS
DURING SUCH STRONG WINDS...AND BE ESPECIALLY AWARE OF OLDER TREES.

PEOPLE IN NORTHEASTERN CHOCTAW AND WESTERN OKTIBBEHA COUNTIES SHOULD
MONITOR THIS STORM CLOSELY.

7

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
330 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2008

MSZ044-045-212115-
LEAKE MS-NESHOBA MS-
330 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2008

...STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR THE NESHOBA AND LEAKE COUNTY BORDER...

A STRONG THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING 40 MPH WINDS WAS LOCATED
3 MILES NORTH OF DIXON AT 330 PM CDT AND WAS PRETTY MUCH STATIONARY.

VERY HEAVY RAIN ALONG WITH FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING ARE
ALSO POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM. RAINFALL AMOUNTS COULD QUICKLY ADD UP
TO OVER AN INCH.

PEOPLE IN CENTRAL NESHOBA AND EASTERN LEAKE COUNTIES SHOULD MONITOR
THIS STORM CLOSELY.

BANNAN

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
344 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2008

MSZ050-051-212130-
NEWTON MS-SCOTT MS-
344 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2008

A CLUSTER OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING 40 TO 50 MPH
WINDS WAS LOCATED OVER NORTHERN NEWTON COUNTY AT 344 PM CDT...AND
WAS NEARLY STATIONARY.

THESE STORMS WILL SLOWLY BUILD WEST INTO SCOTT COUNTY AS WELL.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS UP TO 40 TO
50 MPH...AS WELL AS VERY HEAVY RAIN ALONG AND CONTINUOUS CLOUD TO
GROUND LIGHTNING. THUNDERSTORMS COULD DROP A QUICK ONE TO TWO INCHES
IN A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME...WHICH MAY LEAD TO PROBLEMS WITH PONDING
WATER.

PEOPLE IN EASTERN SCOTT AND NEWTON COUNTIES SHOULD MONITOR THIS STORM
CLOSELY.

CAW