Flash Flood Warning 69, NWS Jackson, MS

000 
WGUS74 KJAN 111111
FFSJAN

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
611 AM CDT MON AUG 11 2008

LAC041-083-111121-
/O.EXP.KJAN.FF.W.0069.000000T0000Z-080811T1115Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
RICHLAND LA-FRANKLIN LA-
611 AM CDT MON AUG 11 2008

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 615 AM CDT FOR FRANKLIN AND
RICHLAND PARISHES...

RAIN HAS DECREASED IN INTENSITY OVER THE PREVIOUSLY WARNED AREA AND 
THE WARNING HAS BEEN ALLOWED TO EXPIRE.

LAT...LON 3239 9200 3249 9193 3224 9150 3222 9154
      3221 9149 3200 9149 3192 9151 3188 9157
      3197 9159 3197 9164 3191 9170 3188 9177
      3202 9190 3208 9192 3213 9187 3217 9191
      3217 9197 3220 9201 3227 9200 3228 9203

$$

EEC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
350 AM CDT MON AUG 11 2008

.DISCUSSION...

...VERY HEAVY RAINFALL AND POSSIBLE FLOODING OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS...

TODAY AND TONIGHT..STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO EXTEND FROM
NORTHEAST TEXAS ACROSS LOUISIANA INTO SOUTHWEST MISSISSIPPI. SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING AND MOVING SOUTHEAST ALONG
THE FRONT ACROSS NORTHEAST LOUISIANA INTO THE SOUTHWEST PORTIONS OF
THE AREA. THE MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE FOCUS OF
THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE TO BE OVER THE SOUTHWEST AND
CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY. PRECIPITABLE WATER
WILL REMAIN ABOVE 2.3 INCHES THROUGH THE DAY OVER THE AREA AND THIS
COMBINED WITH A SERIES OF SHORT WAVE TROUGHS TRAVERSING THE BOUNDARY
WILL CONTINUE TO KICK OFF STORMS.

THE LOCATION OF THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO DICTATE THROUGH THE DAY
THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL...BUT CURRENTLY THE GFS KEEPS IT OVER THE
SOUTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA INTO TONIGHT...BEFORE SHIFTING IT
FURTHER TO THE NORTH INTO CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI. THE EURO IS A LITTLE
FURTHER NORTH WITH THE HEAVIEST PRECIP. WILL ADJUST THE AREA OF THE
FLASH FLOOD WATCH TO FOCUS ON AREAS OF NORTHEAST LOUISIANA...CENTRAL
AND SOUTHWEST MISSISSIPPI TODAY.

THE MODELS WEAKEN THE CONVECTION TONIGHT AS THE STRONGEST SHORT WAVE
SHIFTS TO THE EAST OF THE AREA...BUT AS THE MAIN H500 TROUGH BEGINS
TO SWING THROUGH THE AREA...THE GFS DEEPENS A SURFACE LOW OVER
NORTHERN LOUISIANA AND THIS WILL PULL THE BOUNDARY FURTHER NORTH
OVER CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI. EXPECT CONVECTION TO ONCE AGAIN INCREASE
DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS OVER OUR LOUISIANA PARISHES AND PUSH
EAST INTO CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST MISSISSIPPI.

STUCK CLOSE TO GUIDANCE THROUGH THE PERIOD...BUT DID BUMP POPS UP A
BIT TODAY SOUTH OF I-20. STUCK WITH TEMP GUIDANCE THROUGH THE
PERIOD. /15/

AN IMPRESSIVE LATE SUMMER HEAVY RAINFALL SCENARIO IS STILL ON TAP
FOR TUES INTO TUESDAY NIGHT AS A MOISTURE-RICH AIRMASS (PRECIP WATER
VALUES  2.30 INCHES, 850MB THETAE >340K) CONTINUES TO POOL ALONG
THE PERSISTENT FRONTAL BOUNDARY. UNUSUALLY STRONG JET STREAM
DYNAMICS FOR MID AUGUST ARE FORECAST WITH THE GFS PORTRAYING THE
ENTRANCE REGION OF 80KT JET STREAK ACCOMPANYING THE PREVIOUSLY
MENTIONED SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSAGE OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY. LAPSE
RATES/INSTABILITY WILL BE LIMITED GIVEN LIMITED INSOLATION IN THE
TROPICAL-LIKE ENVIRONMENT...BUT A NEARLY SATURATED DEEP WARM CLOUD
LAYER SHOULD MAKE FOR VERY EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCTION AND THE
POTENTIAL FOR EXTREME RAINFALL RATES GIVEN ANY SYNOPTIC SCALE
FORCING. TIMING WISE...MOST MODELS ARE SIMILAR WITH TIMING OF
HEAVIEST RAINFALL DURING THE DAY TUESDAY EXTENDING INTO TUESDAY
EVENING. BASED ON RECENT EXPERIENCE...EXPECT THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL
TO OCCUR ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 20 CORRIDOR...SLIGHTLY SOUTH
OF MODEL CONSENSUS. CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH SINCE STRENGTH OF WARM
ADVECTION WITH THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH COULD BUCKLE THE
FRONT FARTHER NORTH AND BRING HEAVIER RAIN NORTH OF I-20. BUT IN ANY
CASE...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERAL INCHES OF ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL...STILL EXPECT A FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL BE NECESSARY FOR AT
LEAST PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY. WOULD PREFER TO LET
TODAYS SCENARIO PLAY OUT BEFORE MAKING A DECISION ON PLACEMENT OF A
WATCH FOR TOMORROW. IN TERMS OF SEVERE WEATHER TUESDAY...LIMITED
INSOLATION AND INSTABILITY WILL MITIGATE SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL...
BUT VERY LOW LCL HEIGHTS AND 20-30KTS OF LOW LEVEL FLOW ALONG THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY COULD RAISE THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW SEVERE
STORMS...AND AGAIN THIS SHOULD BE ESPECIALLY TRUE SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 20.

CYCLONIC NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE FROM MID WEEK INTO NEXT
WEEKEND WITH THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACH EXPECTED
BY NEXT SATURDAY. VERY MOIST AIR WILL STILL BE LURKING AROUND THE
FORECAST AREA...AND FORCING WITH THE NEXT TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO BE
UNUSUALLY STRONG ONCE AGAIN...SO ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE
POSSIBLE. /EC/

&&

.AVIATION...IFR CONDITIONS ASSOCIATED WITH LOW CIGS WILL PREVAIL AT
GLH/GWO AND THIS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY ALONG WITH
INTERMITTENT SHOWERS AND STORMS. JAN/MEI/HBG WILL SEE MVFR
OCCASIONAL IFR IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE DAY AS UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCES MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY FOR GTR AS MOST OF THE ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN
SOUTH AND WEST.

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR MSZ034-035-040>043-
     047>049-053>055-059>064.

LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR LAZ007>009-015-016-
     023>026.

AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR ARZ074-075.

&&

15/EC

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
332 PM CDT SUN AUG 10 2008

ARZ074-075-LAZ007>009-015-016-MSZ018-019-025>027-034>036-040>043-
047>049-112045-
ASHLEY-CHICOT-MOREHOUSE-WEST CARROLL-EAST CARROLL-RICHLAND-
MADISON LA-BOLIVAR-SUNFLOWER-LEFLORE-GRENADA-CARROLL-WASHINGTON-
HUMPHREYS-HOLMES-ISSAQUENA-SHARKEY-YAZOO-MADISON MS-WARREN-HINDS-
RANKIN-
332 PM CDT SUN AUG 10 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL
MISSISSIPPI... NORTHEAST LOUISIANA...AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT AND MONDAY

PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL WILL OCCUR TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY. A
FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR TONIGHT AND MONDAY FOR RAINFALL
TOTALS FROM 1 TO 3 INCHES. HIGHER AMOUNTS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN
STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS. THE BEST WINDOW FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AND
ASSOCIATED FLOODING WILL OCCUR BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND BEFORE NOON MONDAY.

DEEP MOISTURE THAT HAS SETTLED OVER THE AREA WILL BE ENHANCE RAINFALL
AMOUNTS AS ANOTHER WEATHER DISTURBANCE DROPS INTO THE AREA TONIGHT.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE INCREASED DUE TO THE EFFECTS OF A SLOW
MOVING FRONT THAT HAS NEARLY STALLED OVER THE ARKLAMISS. THE FRONT
WILL HELP FOCUS THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AND INCREASE THE CHANCE THAT
STORMS WILL TRACK REPEATEDLY OVER A GIVEN AREA.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY

ANOTHER SHOT OF HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.
DEEP MOISTURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA. THE FRONT WILL ALSO REMAIN
PARKED ACROSS THE REGION AS THE NEXT IN A SERIES OF WEATHER
DISTURBANCES TRACKS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. ANOTHER FLASH FLOOD WATCH
MAY BE NEEDED FOR MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY BUT THE POSITIONING OF
THE FRONT WILL DETERMINE THE LOCATION.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS...MAY BE NEEDED THROUGH TUESDAY.

MSZ028>033-037>039-044>046-050>052-056>058-065-066-072>074-112045-
MONTGOMERY-WEBSTER-CLAY-LOWNDES-CHOCTAW-OKTIBBEHA-ATTALA-WINSTON-
NOXUBEE-LEAKE-NESHOBA-KEMPER-SCOTT-NEWTON-LAUDERDALE-SMITH-JASPER-
CLARKE-COVINGTON-JONES-MARION-LAMAR-FORREST-
332 PM CDT SUN AUG 10 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST MISSISSIPPI.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT AND MONDAY

PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI
TONIGHT AND MONDAY AND OVER SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI MONDAY. A WEATHER
DISTURBANCE WILL DROP INTO NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI TONIGHT. THE
REMNANTS OF THE SYSTEM WILL TRACK INTO SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI MONDAY.
PONDING WATER WILL BE POSSIBLE ON ROADWAYS AND IN LOW LYING AREAS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY

ANOTHER SHOT OF HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.
DEEP MOISTURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA. A FRONT WILL REMAIN PARKED
ACROSS THE REGION AS THE NEXT IN A SERIES OF WEATHER DISTURBANCES
TRACKS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MAY BE NEEDED FOR
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY BUT THE POSITIONING OF THE FRONT WILL
DETERMINE THE LOCATION.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS...MAY BE NEEDED THROUGH TUESDAY.

LAZ023>026-MSZ053>055-059>064-112045-
FRANKLIN LA-CATAHOULA-TENSAS-CONCORDIA-CLAIBORNE-COPIAH-SIMPSON-
JEFFERSON-ADAMS-FRANKLIN MS-LINCOLN-LAWRENCE-JEFFERSON DAVIS-
332 PM CDT SUN AUG 10 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHWEST MISSISSIPPI AND EAST
CENTRAL LOUISIANA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT AND MONDAY

PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL WILL OCCUR TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY. A
FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR TONIGHT AND MONDAY FOR RAINFALL
TOTALS FROM 1 TO 3 INCHES. HIGHER AMOUNTS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN
STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS. THE BEST WINDOW FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AND
ASSOCIATED FLOODING WILL OCCUR BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND BEFORE NOON
MONDAY.

ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. THEY WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY WIND TO 50 MILES
AN HOUR AND SMALL HAIL. MOST THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL END BY 10 PM.

DEEP MOISTURE THAT HAS SETTLED OVER THE AREA WILL BE ENHANCE RAINFALL
AMOUNTS AS ANOTHER WEATHER DISTURBANCE DROPS INTO THE AREA TONIGHT.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE INCREASED DUE TO THE EFFECTS OF A SLOW
MOVING FRONT THAT HAS NEARLY STALLED OVER THE ARKLAMISS. THE FRONT
WILL HELP FOCUS THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AND INCREASE THE CHANCE THAT
STORMS WILL TRACK REPEATEDLY OVER A GIVEN AREA. THE AIR MASS HAS
BECOME UNSTABLE ENOUGH FOR ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING BUT SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT LIKELY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY

ANOTHER SHOT OF HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.
DEEP MOISTURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA. A FRONT WILL REMAIN PARKED
ACROSS THE REGION AS THE NEXT IN A SERIES OF WEATHER DISTURBANCES
TRACKS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MAY BE NEEDED FOR
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY BUT THE POSITIONING OF THE FRONT WILL
DETERMINE THE LOCATION.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS...MAY BE NEEDED THROUGH TUESDAY.

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE AT
WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/JAN. THIS INCLUDES THE GRAPHICAL HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK.

03