Flash Flood Warning 38, NWS Jackson, MS

000 
WGUS74 KJAN 230017
FFSJAN

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
714 PM CDT THU MAY 22 2008

MSC049-089-163-230130-
/O.CON.KJAN.FF.W.0038.000000T0000Z-080523T0130Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
HINDS MS-MADISON MS-YAZOO MS-
714 PM CDT THU MAY 22 2008

...A FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 830 PM CDT FOR
YAZOO...MADISON AND HINDS COUNTIES...

AT 711 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS CONTINUED
TO INDICATE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAIN OVER NORTHERN HINDS AND 
SOUTHWEST MADISON COUNTIES. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL MAY CAUSE MORE FLASH 
FLOODING.

LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO MYRLEVILLE...
POCAHONTAS AND FLORA.

ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF AROUND ONE INCH ARE POSSIBLE IN THE 
WARNED AREA.

LAT...LON 3234 9041 3267 9046 3274 9023 3273 9022
      3223 9019
TIME...MOT...LOC 0014Z 180DEG 0KT 3239 9035

$$

EEC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
304 PM CDT THU MAY 22 2008

.SHORT TERM...MAIN CONCERN IS THE CONVECTION ONGOING AS I TYPE. AN
UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO TRAVERSE ACROSS THE AREA AND THIS WILL
CONTINUE TO PROVIDE THE SUPPORT FOR SHRA AND TSRA. A FEW OF THESE
WILL STILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BE STRONG TO SEVERE THROUGH THE
EARLY EVENING HOURS. LAPSE RATES AND AMPLE INSTABILITY WILL STILL BE
SUFFICIENT THROUGH THE EARL EVENING AND HELP A FEW STORMS TO BECOME
SEVERE EARLY THIS EVENING. AS WE LOSE THE HEATING OF THE DAY THE
INTENSITY OF THESE STORMS WILL WANE AND THEN MOST IF NOT ALL
CONVECTION SHOULD BE DONE BY 4Z. IN ADDITION TO THE STRONG/SEVERE
POTENTIAL...HEAVY RAIN COULD BE AN ISSUE AS WELL. AMPLE MOISTURE IS
MOVING IN FROM THE SOUTH AND WITH CONVECTION EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
AND MOVE SLOWLY TO THE NORTH SOME AREAS ACROSS THE SOUTH COULD SEE A
GOOD BIT OF RAIN IN SHORT WHILE.

TOMORROW HAD BEEN LOOKING A LITTLE WET BUT LATEST RUN OF THE GFS HAS
TRENDED QUITE A BIT DOWN ON THE POPS. THE BIGGEST CHANGE I NOTICE IS
THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE THE GFS IS SUGGESTING. PREVIOUS RUNS WERE
BRINGING PWS TO NEAR 2 AND NOW THE GFS HAS 1.3-1.6 OVER MOST OF THE
AREA WITH THE SOUTHERN ZONES APPROACHING 1.75. WITH THE AREA
ACTUALLY UNDER A BUILDING RIDGE THE MOISTURE WAS ABOUT THE ONLY
THING IN THE POSITIVE FOR CONVECTION TO BREAK OUT. NOW WITH THE
LOWER PWS IT CONTAINS MOST OF THE CONVECTION COULD REMAIN CONFINED
TO THE HWY 84 CORRIDOR. THE GFS ALSO HAD BEEN HOLDING ON TO A LITTLE
LEFT OVER LIFT FROM OUR DISTURBANCE TODAY BUT NOW THAT IS NOT THE
CASE. GUI VALUES HAVE COME DOWN IN RESPONSE TO THIS AND WITH THE NAM
PRETTY MUCH AGREEING WITH THIS SCENARIO I WILL JUST STICK CLOSE TO
THE MAV VALUES AND KEEP CONVECTION CONTAINED ACROSS THE SRN 3RD.

HEADING INTO TOMORROW NIGHT ANY CONVECTION THAT IS OUT THERE WILL
QUICKLY COME TO AN END AFTER SUNSET. THE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO
BUILD THROUGH THE NIGHT AND THIS SHOULD HELP KEEP THINGS QUIET INTO
THE WEEKEND.

AS FOR TEMPS...LOOK FOR THINGS TO BE ON THE WARM SIDE WITH VERY
HUMID CONDITIONS IN PLACE. HEAT COULD BECOME A LITTLE PROBLEM ACROSS
THE WEST AS HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MAYBE THE MID 90S AND DEWPOINTS
NEAR 70 LEADING TO HEAT INDEX VALUES APPROACHING 100 DEGREES. LOWS
WILL ALSO HAVE A HARD TIME DROPPING MUCH BELOW 70 TONIGHT AND THEY
MAY STAY IN THE LOWER 70S OVER SOME AREAS SATURDAY MORNING. WITH
HEAT INDEX VALUES NEAR 100 AND LOWS ONLY EXPECTED TO GET DOWN TO
NEAR 70...THIS COULD CAUSE SOME MINOR STRESS ON PEOPLE AND OUTDOOR
PETS AS IT WILL BE A LITTLE DIFFICULT TO COOL DOWN OVERNIGHT. AS FOR
GUI I HAVE MADE NO ADJUSTMENTS TO GUI VALUES. /CAB/

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY...SOME RAIN CHANCES LOOK
TO PERSIST EACH DAY ACROSS AT LEAST A PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA
THROUGH MUCH OF THE LONG TERM. THE BETTER RAIN CHANCES LOOK TO BE
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY AS A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO SHIFT
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THE PRESENCE OF THIS FRONT MOVING INTO AND
ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY HAS CAUSED ME TO INCREASE POPS DURING THIS
TIME...AS ITLL ENCOUNTER THE WARM MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS
RESIDING OVER THE AREA THEN. THE BETTER POPS WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTH
WHERE THE BETTER MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL EXIST.

WE COULD SEE AN ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORM DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS SATURDAY...ESPECIALLY IN THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST.  ALTHOUGH
HEIGHTS LOOK TO BE RISING DURING THIS TIME...AS THE BOUNDARY DROPS
INTO THE AREA AND ENCOUNTERS THIS MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS...ONCE
DAYTIME HEATING IS FACTORED IN AS HIGHS ARE FORECASTED IN THE LOW TO
MID 90S...WE COULD SEE SOME STORMS BEGIN TO TRY AND DEVELOP OVER THE
REGION.  SINCE THERE IS SOME SLIGHT INCONSISTENCIES IN THE MODELS AS
TO WHEN EXACTLY THIS BACK DOOR FRONT WILL ACTUALLY MOVE INTO THE
AREA...ILL HOLD OFF ON MENTIONING THIS POSSIBILITY IN THE HWO.

BEHIND THE FRONT...LOOK FOR SOME DRIER AIR TO MOVE INTO THE REGION
FROM THE NORTHEAST BRINGING AN END TO THE RAIN CHANCES.  SOME
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE OVER MAINLY THE
WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY...AS
THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO HANG UP NEAR THAT AREA.

AFTER SATURDAY...NO CHANGES WILL BE MADE TO THE LONG TERM PORTION OF
THE FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON.  THE PREVIOUS LONG TERM FORECAST
DISCUSSION FOLLOWS BEGINNING WITH MONDAY. /19/

MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO FLATTEN ON
MONDAY...BUT THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO STRENGTHEN OVER THE
AREA TUESDAY AND ESPECIALLY ON WEDNESDAY. THE GFS/EURO INDICATE THAT
PWATS WILL FALL BELOW AN INCH OVER MOST OF THE AREA ON TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. DIURNAL ISOLATED STORMS WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE
AREA TUESDAY...BUT EXPECT WEDNESDAY TO MAINLY BE A DRY DAY. THE GFS
INDICATES THAT ANOTHER BACKDOOR COLD FRONT MAY TRY TO PUSH INTO THE
AREA BY THURSDAY.

STUCK PRETTY CLOSE TO GUIDANCE WITH TEMPS AND POPS THROUGH THE
PERIOD AS THERE REALLY ARENT ANY TARGETS FOR IMPROVEMENT OVER
GUIDANCE IN THE EXTENDED. /15/

&&

.AVIATION...MAIN CONCERN IS THE CONVECTION. SHRA AND TSRA WILL BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA BUT THE MOST LIKELY SITES BEING
AFFECTED LOOK TO BE HBG/JAN/GLH. THERE COULD EVEN BE A FEW SEVERE
STORMS WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS POSSIBLE. ALL CONVECTION
SHOULD COME TO AN END AROUND 4Z AND THE REST OF THE NIGHT SHOULD BE
RELATIVELY QUIET.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       68  93  72  92 /  13  11   5  16
MERIDIAN      67  91  68  93 /  14  20   5  15
VICKSBURG     69  94  71  93 /  15  11   5  17
HATTIESBURG   68  91  72  93 /  34  32  16  25
NATCHEZ       68  91  71  92 /  30  16  10  25
GREENVILLE    70  92  70  94 /  15  11   4  13
GREENWOOD     69  93  71  93 /  14  11   4  12

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM/AVIATION: CAB
LONG TERM: 19

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
240 PM CDT THU MAY 22 2008

ARZ074-075-LAZ007>009-015-016-023>026-MSZ018-019-025>066-072>074-
231945-
ASHLEY-CHICOT-MOREHOUSE-WEST CARROLL-EAST CARROLL-RICHLAND-
MADISON LA-FRANKLIN LA-CATAHOULA-TENSAS-CONCORDIA-BOLIVAR-
SUNFLOWER-LEFLORE-GRENADA-CARROLL-MONTGOMERY-WEBSTER-CLAY-LOWNDES-
CHOCTAW-OKTIBBEHA-WASHINGTON-HUMPHREYS-HOLMES-ATTALA-WINSTON-
NOXUBEE-ISSAQUENA-SHARKEY-YAZOO-MADISON MS-LEAKE-NESHOBA-KEMPER-
WARREN-HINDS-RANKIN-SCOTT-NEWTON-LAUDERDALE-CLAIBORNE-COPIAH-
SIMPSON-SMITH-JASPER-CLARKE-JEFFERSON-ADAMS-FRANKLIN MS-LINCOLN-
LAWRENCE-JEFFERSON DAVIS-COVINGTON-JONES-MARION-LAMAR-FORREST-
240 PM CDT THU MAY 22 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...
NORTHEAST LOUISIANA...AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT AND FRIDAY

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS THE AREA
THIS AFTERNOON...SOME OF WHICH MAY BECOME STRONG AND SEVERE. AREAS
SOUTH AND WEST OF A LAUREL TO JACKSON TO LAKE VILLAGE LINE LOOK TO
HAVE THE GREATEST RISK OF SEEING ANY STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS. QUARTER
SIZED HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND LIGHTING WILL BE THE MAIN RISKS. MOST
ACTIVITY LOOKS TO OCCUR BETWEEN 2 AND 8 PM. AFTER 8 PM...ALL ACTIVITY
IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS...MAY BE NEEDED FOR A FEW HOURS THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO
THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. OTHERWISE...ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED
THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY.

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE AT
WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/JAN. THIS INCLUDES THE GRAPHICAL HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK.

CAB

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
519 PM CDT THU MAY 22 2008

MSZ047>049-222320-
HINDS MS-RANKIN MS-WARREN MS-
519 PM CDT THU MAY 22 2008

A STRONG THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PEA TO DIME SIZE HAIL AND
40 TO 50 MPH WINDS WAS LOCATED 4 MILES SOUTH OF CLINTON AT 519 PM
CDT...MOVING NORTH AT 26 MPH.

VERY HEAVY RAIN ALONG WITH CONTINUOUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING ARE
ALSO POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

PEOPLE IN HINDS...RANKIN AND WARREN COUNTIES...INCLUDING THE CITIES
OF CLINTON AND JACKSON...SHOULD MONITOR THIS STORM CLOSELY.

BANNAN

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
523 PM CDT THU MAY 22 2008

ARZ074-LAZ007-015-222315-
ASHLEY AR-MOREHOUSE LA-RICHLAND LA-
523 PM CDT THU MAY 22 2008

STRONG THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH AND
TORRENTIAL RAINFALL WERE LOCATED FROM NEAR OAK RIDGE TO NEAR WILMOT
AT 523 PM...AND MOVING NORTH AT 20 MPH. TWO TO FOUR INCHES OF
RAINFALL CAN BE EXPECTED FROM THESE STORMS ACROSS CENTRAL MOREHOUSE
PARISH INTO ASHLEY COUNTY. IN ADDITION...FREQUENT LIGHTNING STRIKES
AND PEA SIZE HAIL ARE LIKELY.

PEOPLE IN ASHLEY...MOREHOUSE AND RICHLAND PARISHES...INCLUDING THE
CITIES OF BASTROP...CROSSETT...HAMBURG...NORTH CROSSETT AND WILMOT...
SHOULD MONITOR THIS STORM CLOSELY.

EEC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
538 PM CDT THU MAY 22 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0535 PM     FLASH FLOOD      DOWNTOWN JACKSON        32.30N 90.19W
05/22/2008                   HINDS              MS   EMERGENCY MNGR

            REPORTED FLASH FLOODING AROUND DOWNTOWN...AND METRO CITY
            MALL.

&&

MRM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
545 PM CDT THU MAY 22 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0500 PM     LIGHTNING        GLUCKSTADT              32.52N 90.10W
05/22/2008                   MADISON            MS   EMERGENCY MNGR

            LIGHTNING STRUCK A HOME ON DEARFIELD DRIVE.

0500 PM     TSTM WND DMG     8 SW CANTON             32.53N 90.13W
05/22/2008                   MADISON            MS   EMERGENCY MNGR

            A TREE FELL DOWN ON A POWERLINE ON STRIBLING ROAD NEAR
            LAKE CAROLINE.

&&

HAMRICK

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
605 PM CDT THU MAY 22 2008

MSZ051-052-230005-
NEWTON MS-LAUDERDALE MS-
605 PM CDT THU MAY 22 2008

A STRONG THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING 40 TO 50 MPH WINDS WAS
LOCATED 3 MILES SOUTH OF NELLIEBURG AT 605 PM CDT...MOVING NORTHWEST
AT 23 MPH.

VERY HEAVY RAIN ALONG WITH CONTINUOUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING ARE
ALSO POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

PEOPLE IN LAUDERDALE AND NEWTON COUNTIES...INCLUDING THE CITIES OF
MERIDIAN STATION AND MERIDIAN...SHOULD MONITOR THIS STORM CLOSELY.

BANNAN

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
620 PM CDT THU MAY 22 2008

ARZ075-MSZ034-040-041-222350-
CHICOT AR-WASHINGTON MS-SHARKEY MS-ISSAQUENA MS-
620 PM CDT THU MAY 22 2008

A STRONG THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PEA TO DIME SIZE HAIL AND
40 TO 50 MPH WINDS WAS LOCATED OVER ROLLING FORK AT 620 PM
CDT...MOVING NORTH AT 25 MPH. THIS STORM WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF
NORTHERN SHARKEY...NORTHERN ISSAQUENA...AND SOUTHERN WASHINGTON
COUNTIES.

PEOPLE IN CHICOT...ISSAQUENA...SHARKEY AND WASHINGTON COUNTIES...
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF AVON...HOLLANDALE AND ROLLING FORK...SHOULD
MONITOR THIS STORM CLOSELY.

EEC