Flash Flood Warning 121, NWS Jackson, MS

000 
WGUS74 KJAN 041500
FFSJAN

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1000 AM CDT THU SEP 4 2008

MSC031-065-091-041645-
/O.CON.KJAN.FF.W.0121.000000T0000Z-080904T1645Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
COVINGTON MS-MARION MS-JEFFERSON DAVIS MS-
1000 AM CDT THU SEP 4 2008

...A FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1145 AM CDT FOR
JEFFERSON DAVIS...MARION AND COVINGTON COUNTIES...

THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE WARNED 
AREA...PRODUCING RAINFALL RATES NEAR 2 INCHES AN HOUR. MORE 
THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE UP FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND TRAIN OVER THE 
SAME AREAS. ESTIMATED RAINFALL TOTALS WERE AROUND 2.5 INCHES OVER 
THE PAST 3 HOURS.

ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE LIKELY IN THE 
WARNED AREA.

LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO 
MELBA...SOCIETY HILL...CARSON...CLEM...LONE STAR...SANFORD... 
GOSS...BUNKER HILL...IMPROVE...PRENTISS...MOUNT OLIVE AND COLLINS

MOST FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES. NEVER DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO
AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY. FLOOD WATERS ARE USUALLY
DEEPER THAN THEY APPEAR. JUST ONE FOOT OF FLOWING WATER IS POWERFUL
ENOUGH TO SWEEP VEHICLES OFF THE ROAD. WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED
ROADS MAKE THE SMART CHOICE...TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN.

LAT...LON 3114 9000 3151 8994 3176 8982 3179 8943
      3146 8940 3144 8967 3102 8966 3100 8982
      3109 8983 3108 8991 3115 8992

$$

7

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
424 AM CDT THU SEP 4 2008

.SHORT TERM...SHORT TERM(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...THERE FINALLY
APPEARS TO BE LIGHT AT THE END OF THE GUSTAV TUNNEL THIS MORNING.
SOME INCREDIBLE RAINFALL TOTALS ABOVE 20 INCHES WILL BE PUBLISHED
LATER THIS MORNING AS THEY BECOME AVAILABLE. LATEST SATELLITE
IMAGERY/SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS REMNANTS OF GUSTAV ACROSS CENTRAL
ARKANSAS MOVING NNE. LAST CONVECTIVE BAND ROUGHLY ALONG INTERSTATE
55 CREEPING STEADILY EWD THIS MORNING WITH DECREASING RAINFALL RATES
OF GENERALLY ABOUT 1 INCH/HOUR OR LESS. RISING SURFACE PRESSURES AND
WEAKENING LOW LEVEL WINDS APPEAR TO BE LIMITING THE INTENSITY OF THE
BAND. AS FAR AS FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL...ONGOING FLOODING DICTATES
THAT WE NOT CANCEL THE FFA UNTIL RAIN COMPLETELY GONE. WE WILL LET
THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH EXPIRE FOR MOST AREAS THIS MORNING BUT EXTEND
IT FOR SERN/SCNTRL AREAS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THE REMNANTS OF THE
RAIN BAND WILL MOVE THROUGH ERN ZONES TODAY. RAIN PROCESSES WILL
BECOME MORE OF A HYBRID BETWEEN TROPICAL AND CONVECTIVE AND MID 70S
DEWPOINTS MAY HELP ENHANCE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG AND AHEAD
OF THE RAIN BAND TODAY.

SHORT RANGE NAM12/RUC SHOW THAT THE REMNANTS OF GUSTAV PUSH AWAY
ACROSS SOUTHERN MISSOURI THIS MORNING AND INTO SRN ILLINOIS TONIGHT.
THIS SHOULD DIMINISH THE HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL BY TONIGHT ALTHOUGH A
WEAK SURFACE TROUGH/BOUNDARY WILL BE TRAILING INTO ERN MS. AFTERNOON
MLCAPES PROGGED TO REACH 1200-1600J/KG OVER AT LEAST SERN HALF OF
CWFA WITH K INDEXES HOLDING IN THE M30S. DECENT FORWARD CELL MOTIONS
SHOULD LIMIT RAIN VOLUMES HOPEFULLY. LOOK FOR THE WEAK CONVERGENT
AXIS TO EXIT TO THE E LATER THIS EVENING. THE ARKLAMISS SHOULD DRY
OUT FROM THE WEST LATER FRIDAY WITH MORE ABUNDANT SUNSHINE TO HELP
IN EVAPORATION.

AS FAR AS TEMPS ARE CONCERNED BELIEVE THAT SOGGY GROUND WILL LIMIT
WARMING FOR TODAY WHILE EXPECT NEAR CLIMATOLOGY HIGHS MORE PROBABLE
ON FRIDAY SO MADE SOME SLIGHT UPWARD ADJUSTMENTS TO GUIDANCE.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE FROM THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S AND IN LINE WITH
MAV MOS./40/

.LONG TERM...
MUCH QUIETER CONDITIONS ADVERTISED IN THE LONGER TERM. LAST TRACES
OF DEEPER MOISTURE NOTED OVER EXTREME SERN MS CORNER
SATURDAY...LEAVING FORECAST AREA GENERALLY DRY. LOW LEVEL NLY FLOW
DEVELOPS AS SURFACE/850 MB RIDGING TAKES SHAPE UPSTREAM. WEAK LOW
LEVEL RIDGING MOVES OVER THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY EVENING AND
REMAINS OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE EXTENDED. LOW LEVEL SLY FLOW
RETURNS BY MONDAY AS SURFACE RIDGING EDGES SLIGHTLY EWD BUT
MAINTAINS ITS HOLD ON REGIONAL WEATHER. A WEAK COLD FRONT DROPS INTO
THE LOWER MS VALLEY AND DISSIPATES AS IT STALLS OVER CENTRAL/SRN
ZONES TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER SRN
ZONES FOR NOW BUT THE LIMITED MOISTURE AVAILABLE LOOKS UNORGANIZED.
WE WILL SEE COOLER LOW TEMPS LATE IN THE WEEK...ESPECIALLY OVER NRN
ZONES...AND WARMER AFTERNOON HIGHS ACROSS THE ARKLAMISS WHEN THE
AIRMASS BEGINS TO DRY AND CLOUDS BEGINS TO CLEAR.

&&

.AVIATION...MOSTLY MVFR CEILINGS THIS MORNING WITH NARROW BAND OF
HEAVY RAINS PRODUCING SOME IFR CONDITIONS FOR UP TO 2 HOUR
INTERVALS. ALSO EXPECTING AREAS OF IFR FOG/STRATUS TO DEVELOP TO THE
WEST OF THE RAINS PER LOW CLOUD IMAGERY TRENDS. MORE WIDESPREAD VFR
PERIODS SHOULD BE SEEN AT TIMES AFTER ABOUT 16Z THIS MORNING WITH
BROKEN CLOUDS 3-4K FEET AS RAIN BAND BECOMES LESS ORGANIZED OVER
TIME. SCATTERED CONVECTION SHOULD ALSO DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING FOR AT LEAST SE HALF OF CWFA./40/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       85  69  86  68 /  49  44  30  21
MERIDIAN      87  70  86  69 /  61  53  51  26
VICKSBURG     84  68  87  66 /  36  31  15  16
HATTIESBURG   88  71  86  70 /  72  43  52  23
NATCHEZ       84  69  86  68 /  41  22  17  13
GREENVILLE    83  67  87  64 /  39  23  10  12
GREENWOOD     83  69  86  65 /  50  36  22  16

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 4 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR MSZ056-057-
     064>066-072>074.

     FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR MSZ018-019-
     025>028-034>037-040>044-047>050-053>055-059>063.

LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR
LAZ007>009-015-     016-023>026.

AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR ARZ074-075.

&&

40/03

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
441 AM CDT THU SEP 4 2008

ARZ074-075-LAZ007>009-015-016-023>026-MSZ018-019-025>028-034>036-
040>043-047>049-053>055-059>063-050945-
ASHLEY-CHICOT-MOREHOUSE-WEST CARROLL-EAST CARROLL-RICHLAND-
MADISON LA-FRANKLIN LA-CATAHOULA-TENSAS-CONCORDIA-BOLIVAR-
SUNFLOWER-LEFLORE-GRENADA-CARROLL-MONTGOMERY-WASHINGTON-HUMPHREYS-
HOLMES-ISSAQUENA-SHARKEY-YAZOO-MADISON MS-WARREN-HINDS-RANKIN-
CLAIBORNE-COPIAH-SIMPSON-JEFFERSON-ADAMS-FRANKLIN MS-LINCOLN-
LAWRENCE-
441 AM CDT THU SEP 4 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS...NORTHEAST
LOUISIANA AND WEST MISSISSIPPI.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS...WILL NOT BE NEEDED THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

MSZ029>033-037>039-044>046-050>052-050945-
WEBSTER-CLAY-LOWNDES-CHOCTAW-OKTIBBEHA-ATTALA-WINSTON-NOXUBEE-
LEAKE-NESHOBA-KEMPER-SCOTT-NEWTON-LAUDERDALE-
441 AM CDT THU SEP 4 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST AND EAST CENTRAL
MISSISSIPPI.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AS THE LAST
RAIN BAND ASSOCIATED WITH GUSTAV MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. TORNADOES
AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY RISK. BRIEF DOWNPOURS WILL
ALSO BE POSSIBLE AND MAY PRODUCE STANDING WATER ON ROADWAYS OR IN
AREAS OF POOR DRAINAGE. THE RISK OF SEVERE STORMS WILL DIMINISH BY
THE EVENING AS THE REMNANTS OF GUSTAV LIFT FARTHER WAY FROM THE
ARKLAMISS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS...MAY BE NEEDED TODAY...OTHERWISE THEY WILL NOT BE NEEDED
THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

MSZ056>058-064>066-072>074-050945-
SMITH-JASPER-CLARKE-JEFFERSON DAVIS-COVINGTON-JONES-MARION-LAMAR-
FORREST-
441 AM CDT THU SEP 4 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST
MISSISSIPPI.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AS THE LAST
RAIN BAND ASSOCIATED WITH GUSTAV MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. TORNADOES
AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY RISK. DOWNPOURS WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE AND MAY PRODUCE STANDING WATER ON ROADWAYS OR IN AREAS OF
POOR DRAINAGE. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. THE RISK OF SEVERE STORMS WILL DIMINISH BY THE EVENING AS
THE REMNANTS OF GUSTAV LIFT FARTHER WAY FROM THE ARKLAMISS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS...MAY BE NEEDED TODAY...OTHERWISE THEY WILL NOT BE
NEEDED THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE AT
WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/JAN. THIS INCLUDES THE GRAPHICAL HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK.

03

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
831 AM CDT THU SEP 04 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0355 PM     TORNADO          BUDE                    31.46N 90.85W
09/03/2008                   FRANKLIN           MS   EMERGENCY MNGR

            EM REPORTS HE IS WATCHING TORNADO ON THE GROUND AT THE
            INTERSECTION OF HIGHWAYS 98 AND 84. UPDATE...THIS TORNADO
            BLEW OFF THE FRONT PORCH OF A RESTAURANT AT THE
            INTERSECTION OF HIGHWAYS 98 AND 84.

&&

HAMRICK