Flash Flood Warning 11, NWS Jackson, MS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1053 PM CST THU FEB 21 2008

.DISUSSION...SOGGY NIGHT UNDERWAY. LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS HAS A LOW
OVER CENTRAL LOUISIANA WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT BACK TO THE
SOUTHWEST NEARING THE TEXAS GULF COAST. THE ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT WAS
NOTED FROM NEAR HATTIESBURG STRETCHING WEST JUST SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 84.
THE BULK OF THE STRONGEST THUNDERSTORMS WERE ALONG AND NORTH OF THE
WARM FRONT PRODUCING REPORTS OF FLOODING...HAIL AND FREQUENT
LIGHTNING SO FAR. AS THE SURFACE LOW MOVES NORTHEAST ACROSS OUR AREA
TONIGHT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP. MORE OF
OUR SOUTHEAST AREA WILL BECOME UNDER THE WARM SECTOR AND RUN THE RISK
OF TORNADO DEVELOPMENT WHILE MUCH OF OUR AREA WILL STILL SEE
CONDITIONS FAVORABLE FOR HEAVY RAIN AND HAIL PRODUCING THUNDERSTORMS.
HAVE EXPANDED THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH EAST ALONG THE INTERSTATE 20
CORRIDOR AND TO INTERSTATE 55 IN OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES. TEMPERATURES
WERE RUNNING A LITTLE COOLER THAN EXPECTED IN THE EAST AS THE WARM
FRONT HAS BEEN SLOWER TO MOVE NORTH THAN EXPECTED. OVERNIGHT STILL
LOOK OK BUT TEMPERATURE CURVES HAVE BEEN UPDATED.

&&

.AVIATION...WIDSPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO
RESULT IN WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING WITH OCASSIONAL LIFR
CONDITIONS AS A CENTER OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE AREA FROM THE
SOUTHWEST REMAINDER OF NIGHT. STRONGEST THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR
ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE 20 CORRIDOR. THE LOW WILL DRAG A
COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA AND CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY
IMPROVE FRIDAY MORNING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       54  70  43  64 / 100  24  10   7
MERIDIAN      55  71  43  64 / 100  40  11   7
VICKSBURG     53  68  42  64 / 100  19   9   6
HATTIESBURG   59  74  48  68 / 100  46  20   6
NATCHEZ       58  69  43  65 /  99  24   9   7
GREENVILLE    49  61  39  57 /  89  16   8   6
GREENWOOD     52  63  38  58 /  98  18   9   6

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 AM CST FRIDAY FOR MSZ043>056-059>062.

LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 AM CST FRIDAY FOR LAZ015-016-023>026.

AR...NONE.
&&

22

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
233 PM CST THU FEB 21 2008

ARZ074-075-LAZ007>009-015-016-023>026-MSZ018-019-025>066-072>074-
222045-
ASHLEY-CHICOT-MOREHOUSE-WEST CARROLL-EAST CARROLL-RICHLAND-
MADISON-FRANKLIN-CATAHOULA-TENSAS-CONCORDIA-BOLIVAR-SUNFLOWER-
LEFLORE-GRENADA-CARROLL-MONTGOMERY-WEBSTER-CLAY-LOWNDES-CHOCTAW-
OKTIBBEHA-WASHINGTON-HUMPHREYS-HOLMES-ATTALA-WINSTON-NOXUBEE-
ISSAQUENA-SHARKEY-YAZOO-LEAKE-NESHOBA-KEMPER-WARREN-HINDS-RANKIN-
SCOTT-NEWTON-LAUDERDALE-CLAIBORNE-COPIAH-SIMPSON-SMITH-JASPER-
CLARKE-JEFFERSON-ADAMS-LINCOLN-LAWRENCE-JEFFERSON DAVIS-COVINGTON-
JONES-MARION-LAMAR-FORREST-
233 PM CST THU FEB 21 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...
NORTHEAST LOUISIANA...AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT AND FRIDAY

THERE IS A RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND HEAVY RAINFALL FOR THE
ENTIRE OUTLOOK AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND LASTING INTO EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING. THE GREATEST RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE LATE THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE THIS EVENING ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE
INTERSTATE 20 CORRIDOR.

AS A STRONG UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHES...IT WILL HELP DEVELOP
A SURFACE LOW ACROSS EASTERN TEXAS. AS THIS LOW BEGINS TO MOVE
NORTHEAST THROUGH NORTHERN LOUISIANA IT WILL CAUSE A WARM FRONT
TO SLOWLY MOVE NORTH THROUGH THE DAY...APPROACHING THE I 20 CORRIDOR
SOMETIME LATE THIS AFTERNOON. SOUTH OF THIS FRONT...AFTERNOON HEATING
WILL INCREASE THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CONTAINING
DAMAGING WINDS...POSSIBLE TORNADOES...AND LARGE HAIL. THIS AFTERNOON
THE MAIN AREA WILL BE NORTHEAST LOUISIANA AND SOUTHWEST MISSISSIPPI.
THIS RISK WILL EXPAND EAST AND NORTH TOWARDS I 20 LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND MORE SO THIS EVENING. FARTHER NORTH...LARGE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE
UP TO THE HIGHWAY 82 CORRIDOR...BUT COOLER AIR NEAR THE GROUND WILL
GREATLY LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WINDS.

AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES BACK THROUGH THE AREA SEVERE STORMS WILL
BEGIN TO COME TO AN END FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST BEGINNING AROUND
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT AND LEAVING THE SOUTHEAST BY FRIDAY MORNING.

IN ADDITION TO THE SEVERE POTENTIAL...HEAVY RAIN AND FLOODING COULD
ALSO BE A CONCERN. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF ONE TO TWO AND A HALF INCHES HAS
FALLEN ACROSS THE REGION. AN ADDITIONAL TWO TO THREE INCHES OF RAIN
CAN BE EXPECTED...WHICH WILL GIVE A SUM TOTAL OF THREE TO FIVE INCHES
WITH ISOLATED SIX INCH AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. PROLONGED PERIODS OF HEAVY
RAINFALL CAN BE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. SOME
OF THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL WILL BE AROUND THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
SUCH HEAVY RAIN COULD LEAD TO MINOR FLOODING OF LOW-LYING AREAS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS IS MAY BE NEEDED LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT.

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE AT
WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/JAN. THIS INCLUDES THE GRAPHICAL HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK.

14

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1016 PM CST THU FEB 21 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1000 PM     FLASH FLOOD      MEADVILLE               31.47N 90.89W
02/21/2008                   FRANKLIN           MS   EMERGENCY MNGR

            NUMEROUS ROADS UNDER WATER AROUND MEADVILLE INCLUDING
            MCNAIR ROAD...SEALS ROAD...PURVEY ROAD AND UNION CHURCH
            ROAD.

&&

MME

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1038 PM CST THU FEB 21 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0820 PM     HAIL             JONESVILLE              31.62N 91.83W
02/21/2008  E0.50 INCH       CATAHOULA          LA   LAW ENFORCEMENT

1016 PM     HAIL             2 SW MIZE               31.85N 89.58W
02/21/2008  E0.88 INCH       SMITH              MS   PUBLIC

1021 PM     HAIL             3 E MIZE                31.87N 89.50W
02/21/2008  E1.75 INCH       SMITH              MS   AMATEUR RADIO

1030 PM     HAIL             10 W MAGEE              31.87N 89.90W
02/21/2008  E0.75 INCH       SIMPSON            MS   EMERGENCY MNGR

            DIME SIZED HAIL REPORTED NEAR THE INTERSECTION OF HIGHWAY
            13 AND HIGHWAY 28.

&&

HAMRICK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1133 PM CST THU FEB 21 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1027 PM     HAIL             5 SSE HAZLEHURST        31.80N 90.36W
02/21/2008  E1.00 INCH       COPIAH             MS   BROADCAST MEDIA

1100 PM     HAIL             MIZE                    31.87N 89.55W
02/21/2008  E1.75 INCH       SMITH              MS   EMERGENCY MNGR

1115 PM     HAIL             FLORENCE                32.15N 90.13W
02/21/2008  E0.75 INCH       RANKIN             MS   BROADCAST MEDIA

            PENNY SIZE HAIL NEAR FLORENCE

&&

HAMRICK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1208 AM CST FRI FEB 22 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1110 AM     FLASH FLOOD      5 NW ST. JOSEPH         31.97N 91.30W
02/21/2008                   TENSAS             LA   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            WALKER RD UNDER WATER.

&&

CME

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1209 AM CST FRI FEB 22 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1113 PM     HAIL             BAY SPRINGS             31.98N 89.28W
02/21/2008  E0.88 INCH       JASPER             MS   PUBLIC

&&

CME

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1222 AM CST FRI FEB 22 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1030 PM     FLASH FLOOD      8 NW BROOKHAVEN         31.67N 90.54W
02/21/2008                   LINCOLN            MS   EMERGENCY MNGR

            A FEW ROADS WERE UNDER WATER ACROSS NW LINCOLN CO.

&&

CME