Winter Storm Warning 15, NWS Northern Indiana

000 
WWUS43 KIWX 301244
WSWIWX

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
744 AM EST SUN NOV 30 2008

...WINTER WEATHER TO IMPACT THE REGION TODAY INTO MONDAY...

.A RAPIDLY DEEPENING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK FROM
SOUTHERN INDIANA THIS MORNING INTO NORTHWEST OHIO BY THIS EVENING.
SNOW...HEAVY AT TIMES...AND POSSIBLY MIXED WITH RAIN WILL OVERSPREAD THE
AREA THIS MORNING...BEFORE CHANGING TO ALL RAIN EAST OF A PERU TO
DEFIANCE LINE THIS AFTERNOON. THE SNOW WILL CONTINUE OFF AND ON
INTO MONDAY MORNING. IN ADDITION...LAKE ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS WILL
DEVELOP DOWNSTREAM OF LAKE MICHIGAN ON MONDAY...DUE TO FAVORABLE
WINDS BEHIND THE DEPARTING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE. TOTAL SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS OF 6 TO 9 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN BERRIEN COUNTY
MICHIGAN...WHERE THE SNOW IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH MOST OF
THE EVENT. LESSER AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES ARE EXPECTED IN THE
REMAINDER OF SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN INTO NORTHWEST INDIANA...AND
2 TO 5 INCHES EXPECTED SOUTHEAST OF A NORTH JUDSON TO GOSHEN TO
COLDWATER LINE. WINDS WILL INCREASE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WHICH
MAY PRODUCE ADDITIONAL PROBLEMS WITH BLOWING AND DRIFTING OF
SNOW...ESPECIALLY NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN.

LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR LOCAL MEDIA FOR LATER
UPDATES ON THIS SITUATION.

MIZ077-302100-
/O.EXT.KIWX.WS.W.0015.081130T1500Z-081202T0600Z/
BERRIEN-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NILES...BENTON HARBOR...ST. JOSEPH...
BUCHANAN
744 AM EST SUN NOV 30 2008

...WINTER STORM WARNING NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 AM EST TUESDAY...

THE WINTER STORM WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 AM EST TUESDAY.

SNOW...POSSIBLY HEAVY AT TIMES...WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA BY MID
MORNING...AND CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY. LAKE ENHANCEMENT IS
EXPECTED BY MONDAY MORNING...WITH THE SNOW FORECAST TO TAPER OFF
MONDAY EVENING. TOTAL SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO 9 INCHES ARE
FORECAST BY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. GUSTY WINDS MAY ADD TO TRAVEL
CONCERNS WITH BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW POSSIBLE MONDAY.

&&

A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR HEAVY SNOW MEANS SEVERE WINTER WEATHER
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OR OCCURRING.  SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF
SNOW ARE FORECAST THAT WILL MAKE TRAVEL DANGEROUS. ONLY TRAVEL IN
AN EMERGENCY. IF YOU MUST TRAVEL...KEEP AN EXTRA FLASHLIGHT...
FOOD...AND WATER IN YOUR VEHICLE IN CASE OF AN EMERGENCY.

$$

INZ023>027-032>034-301800-
/O.EXB.KIWX.WW.Y.0018.081130T1244Z-081130T1800Z/
MIAMI-WABASH-HUNTINGTON-WELLS-ADAMS-GRANT-BLACKFORD-JAY-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...PERU...WABASH...NORTH MANCHESTER...
HUNTINGTON...BLUFFTON...OSSIAN...DECATUR...BERNE...MARION...
HARTFORD CITY...MONTPELIER...PORTLAND
744 AM EST SUN NOV 30 2008

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS
AFTERNOON...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NORTHERN INDIANA HAS ISSUED A
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR A MIX OF SNOW AND FREEZING RAIN...WHICH
IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON.

SNOW WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA THIS MORNING AND MIX WITH RAIN BY
LATE MORNING BEFORE DIMINISHING THIS AFTERNOON. TOTAL SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE BY THIS EVENING.

&&

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW MEANS THAT PERIODS OF SNOW
WILL CAUSE PRIMARILY TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR SNOW
COVERED ROADS AND LIMITED VISIBILITIES...AND USE CAUTION WHILE
DRIVING.

$$

INZ007-009-017-018-302100-
/O.EXB.KIWX.WW.Y.0018.081130T1244Z-081201T0000Z/
STEUBEN-DE KALB-WHITLEY-ALLEN IN-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ANGOLA...AUBURN...GARRETT...
COLUMBIA CITY...SOUTH WHITLEY...FORT WAYNE
744 AM EST SUN NOV 30 2008

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS
EVENING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NORTHERN INDIANA HAS ISSUED A
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM
EST THIS EVENING.

SNOW...POSSIBLY HEAVY AT TIMES THIS MORNING...WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA
THROUGH MID MORNING AND CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING. TOTAL SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE BY EVENING.

&&

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW MEANS THAT PERIODS OF SNOW
WILL CAUSE PRIMARILY TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR SNOW
COVERED ROADS AND LIMITED VISIBILITIES...AND USE CAUTION WHILE
DRIVING.

$$

INZ006-008-012>016-020-022-302100-
/O.EXT.KIWX.WW.Y.0018.081130T1244Z-081202T0000Z/
LAGRANGE-NOBLE-STARKE-PULASKI-MARSHALL-FULTON IN-KOSCIUSKO-WHITE-
CASS IN-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...LAGRANGE...TOPEKA...KENDALLVILLE...
LIGONIER...KNOX...NORTH JUDSON...WINAMAC...FRANCESVILLE...
PLYMOUTH...BREMEN...ROCHESTER...WARSAW...WINONA LAKE...
MONTICELLO...BROOKSTON...LOGANSPORT
744 AM EST SUN NOV 30 2008 /644 AM CST SUN NOV 30 2008/

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST /6 PM
CST/ MONDAY...

SNOW...POSSIBLY HEAVY AT TIMES THIS MORNING...WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA
EARLY THIS MORNING...AND CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING. TOTAL
SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 5 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE BY EVENING.

&&

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW MEANS THAT PERIODS OF SNOW
WILL CAUSE PRIMARILY TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR SNOW
COVERED ROADS AND LIMITED VISIBILITIES...AND USE CAUTION WHILE
DRIVING.

$$

INZ003-004-MIZ078-302100-
/O.EXT.KIWX.WW.Y.0018.081130T1500Z-081202T0600Z/
LA PORTE-ST. JOSEPH IN-CASS MI-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...MICHIGAN CITY...LA PORTE...SOUTH BEND...
MISHAWAKA...DOWAGIAC...CASSOPOLIS
744 AM EST SUN NOV 30 2008 /644 AM CST SUN NOV 30 2008/

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 AM EST /MIDNIGHT
CST/ TUESDAY...

SNOW...POSSIBLY HEAVY AT TIMES THIS MORNING...WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA
EARLY THIS MORNING AND CONTINUE INTO MONDAY. LAKE ENHANCEMENT IS
EXPECTED BY MONDAY MORNING...WITH THE SNOW FORECAST TO TAPER OFF
MONDAY EVENING. TOTAL SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 8 INCHES ARE
FORECAST BY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. GUSTY WINDS MAY ADD TO TRAVEL
CONCERNS WITH BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW POSSIBLE MONDAY.

&&

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW MEANS THAT PERIODS OF SNOW
WILL CAUSE PRIMARILY TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR SNOW
COVERED ROADS AND LIMITED VISIBILITIES...AND USE CAUTION WHILE
DRIVING.

$$

INZ005-MIZ079-080-302100-
/O.EXT.KIWX.WW.Y.0018.081130T1500Z-081202T0000Z/
ELKHART-ST. JOSEPH MI-BRANCH-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ELKHART...GOSHEN...STURGIS...
THREE RIVERS...COLDWATER
744 AM EST SUN NOV 30 2008

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST MONDAY...

SNOW...POSSIBLY HEAVY AT TIMES THIS MORNING...WILL OVERSPREAD THE
AREA THIS MORNING...AND CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING. TOTAL SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 5 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE BY EVENING.

&&

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW MEANS THAT PERIODS OF SNOW
WILL CAUSE PRIMARILY TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR SNOW
COVERED ROADS AND LIMITED VISIBILITIES...AND USE CAUTION WHILE
DRIVING.

$$

000 
WWUS43 KIWX 301743
WSWIWX

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
1243 PM EST SUN NOV 30 2008

...SNOW TAPERS OFF FOR THE TIME BEING...

.THE SNOWFALL WILL CONTINUE TO TAPER OFF THIS AFTERNOON INTO
THIS EVENING ACROSS MOST AREAS WITH SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE AND WIDELY
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE. THE WIDESPREAD LIGHT TO MODERATE
SNOW HAS SET UP ACROSS NORTHERN ILLINOIS INTO SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN
BEHIND A RAPIDLY DEEPENING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS CENTRAL
INDIANA. THIS SYSTEM WILL TRACK NORTHEASTWARD WITH THE BAND OF LIGHT TO
MODERATE SNOW LIKELY PIVOTING INTO NORTHWEST INDIANA AND SOUTHWEST
LOWER MICHIGAN LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. SOME LAKE ENHANCEMENT IS
ALSO EXPECTED WHICH MAY ALLOW FOR SNOWFALL AMOUNTS UP TO 6 INCHES
IN BERRIEN COUNTY. OTHERWISE...EXPECT 2 TO 5 INCHES ACROSS FAR
NORTHWEST INDIANA AND SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN BY MONDAY EVENING.
WINDS WILL PICK UP LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY LIKELY RESULTING IN
SOME BLOWING AND DRIFTING. OTHERWISE...ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATIONS SOUTH AND EAST OF A KNOX TO GOSHEN TO STURGIS
MICHIGAN LINE WILL GENERALLY RANGE BETWEEN A TRACE AND 2 INCHES
THROUGH MONDAY EVENING.

INZ005-006-008-012>016-020-022-MIZ079-080-301845-
/O.CAN.KIWX.WW.Y.0018.000000T0000Z-081202T0000Z/
ELKHART-LAGRANGE-NOBLE-STARKE-PULASKI-MARSHALL-FULTON IN-
KOSCIUSKO-WHITE-CASS IN-ST. JOSEPH MI-BRANCH-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ELKHART...GOSHEN...LAGRANGE...TOPEKA...
KENDALLVILLE...LIGONIER...KNOX...NORTH JUDSON...WINAMAC...
FRANCESVILLE...PLYMOUTH...BREMEN...ROCHESTER...WARSAW...
WINONA LAKE...MONTICELLO...BROOKSTON...LOGANSPORT...STURGIS...
THREE RIVERS...COLDWATER
1243 PM EST SUN NOV 30 2008 /1143 AM CST SUN NOV 30 2008/

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NORTHERN INDIANA HAS CANCELLED
THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY. 

THE SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THIS AFTERNOON AS
THE BAND OF HEAVIER PRECIPITATION SHIFTS NORTH AND OUT OF THE
REGION. EXPECT PATCHY DRIZZLE AND THE CHANCE FOR A FEW SNOW
SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATION
WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY AS THE BAND OF SNOW TO THE
WEST SHIFTS EASTWARD INTO THE GREAT LAKES ALONG WITH SOME LAKE
ENHANCEMENT.

$$

INZ007-009-017-018-301845-
/O.CAN.KIWX.WW.Y.0018.000000T0000Z-081201T0000Z/
STEUBEN-DE KALB-WHITLEY-ALLEN IN-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ANGOLA...AUBURN...GARRETT...
COLUMBIA CITY...SOUTH WHITLEY...FORT WAYNE
1243 PM EST SUN NOV 30 2008

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NORTHERN INDIANA HAS CANCELLED
THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY. 

THE SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THIS AFTERNOON AS
THE BAND OF HEAVIER PRECIPITATION SHIFTS NORTH AND OUT OF THE
REGION. EXPECT PATCHY DRIZZLE AND THE CHANCE FOR A FEW SNOW
SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATION
WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY AS THE BAND OF SNOW TO THE
WEST SHIFTS EASTWARD INTO THE GREAT LAKES ALONG WITH SOME LAKE
ENHANCEMENT.

$$

INZ023>027-032>034-301845-
/O.CAN.KIWX.WW.Y.0018.000000T0000Z-081130T1800Z/
MIAMI-WABASH-HUNTINGTON-WELLS-ADAMS-GRANT-BLACKFORD-JAY-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...PERU...WABASH...NORTH MANCHESTER...
HUNTINGTON...BLUFFTON...OSSIAN...DECATUR...BERNE...MARION...
HARTFORD CITY...MONTPELIER...PORTLAND
1243 PM EST SUN NOV 30 2008

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NORTHERN INDIANA HAS CANCELLED
THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY. 

THE SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THIS AFTERNOON AS
THE BAND OF HEAVIER PRECIPITATION SHIFTS NORTH AND OUT OF THE
REGION. EXPECT PATCHY DRIZZLE AND THE CHANCE FOR A FEW SNOW
SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATION
WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY AS THE BAND OF SNOW TO THE
WEST SHIFTS EASTWARD INTO THE GREAT LAKES ALONG WITH SOME LAKE
ENHANCEMENT.

$$

MIZ077-010145-
/O.CON.KIWX.WS.W.0015.000000T0000Z-081202T0600Z/
BERRIEN-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NILES...BENTON HARBOR...ST. JOSEPH...
BUCHANAN
1243 PM EST SUN NOV 30 2008

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 AM EST
TUESDAY...

A WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 AM EST TUESDAY. 

PERIODS OF SNOW CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON...WITH
THE BULK OF THE ACCUMULATING SNOW FORECAST TO FALL LATE TONIGHT
INTO MONDAY DUE TO LAKE ENHANCEMENT. TOTAL SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS
UP TO 6 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE BY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. GUSTY
WINDS MAY ADD TO TRAVEL CONCERNS WITH BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW
POSSIBLE MONDAY.

&&

A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR HEAVY SNOW MEANS SEVERE WINTER WEATHER
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OR OCCURRING.  SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF
SNOW ARE FORECAST THAT WILL MAKE TRAVEL DANGEROUS. ONLY TRAVEL IN
AN EMERGENCY. IF YOU MUST TRAVEL...KEEP AN EXTRA FLASHLIGHT...
FOOD...AND WATER IN YOUR VEHICLE IN CASE OF AN EMERGENCY.

$$

INZ003-004-MIZ078-010145-
/O.CON.KIWX.WW.Y.0018.000000T0000Z-081202T0600Z/
LA PORTE-ST. JOSEPH IN-CASS MI-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...MICHIGAN CITY...LA PORTE...SOUTH BEND...
MISHAWAKA...DOWAGIAC...CASSOPOLIS
1243 PM EST SUN NOV 30 2008 /1143 AM CST SUN NOV 30 2008/

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 AM EST
/MIDNIGHT CST/ TUESDAY...

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 AM EST
/MIDNIGHT CST/ TUESDAY. 

PERIODS OF SNOW ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY
EVENING...WITH THE BULK OF THE ACCUMULATING SNOW FORECAST TO FALL
LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. A LULL IN THE SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS DRIER AIR BRIEFLY WORKS IN FROM THE 
SOUTHWEST. TOTAL SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 5 INCHES CAN BE
EXPECTED BY MONDAY EVENING.

&&

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW MEANS THAT PERIODS OF SNOW
WILL CAUSE PRIMARILY TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR SNOW
COVERED ROADS AND LIMITED VISIBILITIES...AND USE CAUTION WHILE
DRIVING.

$$

000 
WWUS43 KIWX 302106
WSWIWX

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
406 PM EST SUN NOV 30 2008

...WINTER STORM CONTINUES ACROSS WESTERN GREAT LAKES...BUT IMPACT
ON THE AREA APPEARS TO BE DIMINISHED...

LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DEEPEN ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA. THE BULK
OF THE MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW HAS BEEN ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
ILLINOIS...WITH THIS TREND EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AS THE LOW MOVES
NORTH AND NORTHEAST. A PERIOD OF ACCUMULATING SNOW IS STILL
EXPECTED LATER TONIGHT INTO MONDAY...BUT AT THIS TIME...IT LOOKS
LESS CERTAIN THAT CRITERIA MAY BE MET. AS A RESULT THE ADVISORIES
AND WARNINGS HAVE BEEN CANCELED. 

MIZ077-302215-
/O.CAN.KIWX.WS.W.0015.000000T0000Z-081202T0600Z/
BERRIEN-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NILES...BENTON HARBOR...ST. JOSEPH...
BUCHANAN
406 PM EST SUN NOV 30 2008

...WINTER STORM WARNING IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NORTHERN INDIANA HAS CANCELLED
THE WINTER STORM WARNING. 

SNOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO MONDAY.
AMOUNTS ARE ANTICIPATED TO NOW BE IN THE 2 TO 4 INCH RANGE...WITH
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNT CLOSE TO 6 INCHES POSSIBLE. THEREFORE THE
WINTER STORM WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELED. 

MOTORISTS SHOULD STILL MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AS THIS WINTER
STORM CONTINUES TO DEVELOP.

$$

INZ003-004-MIZ078-302215-
/O.CAN.KIWX.WW.Y.0018.000000T0000Z-081202T0600Z/
LA PORTE-ST. JOSEPH IN-CASS MI-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...MICHIGAN CITY...LA PORTE...SOUTH BEND...
MISHAWAKA...DOWAGIAC...CASSOPOLIS
406 PM EST SUN NOV 30 2008 /306 PM CST SUN NOV 30 2008/

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NORTHERN INDIANA HAS CANCELLED
THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY. 

PERIODS OF DRIZZLE AND FOG WILL BE REPLACED LATER TONIGHT BY LIGHT
SNOW. AMOUNTS AT THIS TIME ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 2 TO 4 INCH
RANGE WITH SOME BLOWING AND DRIFTING. THE LOWER AMOUNTS AND DELAY
IN THE ONSET OF THE SNOWFALL HAS RESULTED IN THE CANCELLATION OF
THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY. 

MOTORISTS SHOULD STILL STAY TUNED TO LATER FORECASTS FOR POSSIBLE
CHANGES TO THIS DEVELOPING WINTER STORM ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. 

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
110 AM EST SUN NOV 30 2008

.AVIATION.../00Z TAFS/
DETERIORATING FLIGHT CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY LATE SUN AM AS SFC LOW
DVLPG/STRENGTHENING ACRS TN VLY BEGINS NNEWD TRACK INTO OHIO. STRONG
MOISTURE TAP TO PROVIDE AMPLE SUPPORT FOR PRECIP/RAPIDLY LWRD CIGS
INTO IFR RANGE. DEPTH OF NR SFC WARM LYR TO LIKLEY PROVIDE MIX
INITIALLY INVOF KFWA AND PRECLUDE ANY RY SNOW ACCUM ISSUE UNTIL EVE.
FURTHER NW OF TRACK INVOF KSBN GRTR LIFT AND TEMP PROFILE FOR A WET
SNOW EVENT WITH GRTR REDUCTIONS IN VSBY/CIGS...DOWN TO LIFR AT TIMES
THIS AFTN.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 340 PM EST SAT NOV 29 2008/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT

MAIN FCST ISSUE CONTINUES TO BE POTENTIAL WINTER STORM ACROSS NW
INDIANA AND SW LOWER MICHIGAN SUNDAY INTO MONDAY MORNING. 12Z
GUIDANCE CAME IN CONSIDERABLY STRONGER AND FARTHER NW WITH SYSTEM
AS EXPECTED GIVEN IMPRESSIVE DYNAMICS/NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH.
FAVORED A MODEL BLEND AS THERE WERE NOT ANY NOTICEABLE INITIALIZATION
PROBLEMS.

OPEN MID LEVEL WAVE CURRENTLY OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL PROPAGATE
NEWD AND CLOSE OFF ACROSS CENTRAL ILLINOIS BY SUN AFTN AS ADDITIONAL
SHRTWV/JET ENERGY DROPS DOWN THROUGH THE HIGH PLAINS ON THE BACK
SIDE OF THE LONG WAVE TROUGH. ASSOCIATED 7/5H 12HR HEIGHT FALLS OF
80-100M WILL INDUCE CYCLOGENESIS...WITH A RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING SFC
LOW FCST TO TRACK FROM SC KY SUN MORNING TO WESTERN OH BY LATE SUN
AFTN...TO JUST NORTH OF DTX BY 12Z MON. PRECIP HAS ALREADY BROKEN
OUT ACROSS PORTIONS OF KS/MO/IA. EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO
INCREASING IN COVERAGE/INTENSITY AND OVERSPREAD THE MID MS VALLEY
TONIGHT AND THE FA SUN MORNING. THIS PRECIP IS DEVELOPING DUE TO
LARGE SCALE ASCENT PER POSITIVE PRESSURE ADVECTION ON THE
TROPOPAUSE...LEADING TO THE AFOREMENTIONED HEIGHT FALLS. ALSO...
ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE WITH DECENT 30KT CROSS ISOBARIC FLOW EXPECTED
SUN MORNING INTO EARLY SUN AFTN. HOWEVER...STILL SOME QUESTION WRT
PTYPE. PRECIP MAY START OFF AS A RN/SN MIX ACROSS ENTIRE AREA SUN
MORNING WITH ABV FREEZING BDRY LAYER TEMPS.
HOWEVER...DYNAMIC/EVAPORATIVE COOLING AND WETBULBING SHOULD QUICKLY
ALLOW THE MIX TO CHANGE OVER TO ALL SNOW ACROSS WESTERN/NORTHERN
AREAS BY SUN AFTN PER FCST SOUNDINGS. UPPER TROUGH GOES NEGATIVELY
TILTED DRAWING 925/850 LOW FARTHER NW...WITH 850MB CIRCULATION
TRANSLATING TO JUST WEST OF FWA BY EARLY SUN EVENING. WITH
THIS...FEEL CONTINUING WITH A MIX NEAR/EAST OF INTERSTATE 69 18Z SAT
THRU 03Z SUN WARRANTED. ALTHOUGH...QUICK LOOK AT THE 12Z ECMWF SHOWS
THE 850MB LOW TRACKING FARTHER TO THE WEST THROUGH FAR NORTHWESTERN
AREAS. SAW THIS LAST MINUTE NW TREND LAST YEAR WITH THESE INTENSE
UPPER WAVES SO WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF DEFORMATION ZONE/SNOW AND
RN/SN LINE NEED TO BE SHIFTED FARTHER TO NW TONIGHT DEPENDING ON
TRENDS/00Z GUIDANCE. OTHERWISE...MAY SEE DRY SLOT IMPACT EASTERN
AREAS BY LATE SUN AFTN INTO SUN NIGHT WITH JUST DRIZZLE/FRZ DRIZZLE
DUE TO LOSS OF SYNOPTIC MOISTURE ABV THE -10C LEVEL FOR ACTIVATION
OF ICE NUCLEI. EXPECT 8/7H DEFORMATION ZONE WITH EXPANSIVE AREA OF
LIGHT/MODERATE SNOW TO SET UP NORTHWEST OF A
LOGANSPORT-WARSAW-STURGIS LINE LATE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.
HEAVIER SNOW RATES AND MESOBANDING POSSIBLE WITH MODEL XSECTIONS
INDICATING SATURATION AND UVM WITHIN THE DGZ ALONG WITH LOW STATIC
STABILITY JUST ABOVE A SLOPING REGION OF FGEN. WITH THIS...DECIDED
TO ISSUE A WINTER STORM WATCH SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING IN THE NW. BEST CHANCE FOR 8 INCHES OF SNOW OR MORE IN 24
HOURS APPEARS TO BE N THE SOUTH BEND/BENTON HARBOR/LA PORTE AREAS
WITHIN THE PIVOT OF THE DEFORMATION SNOW BAND.

ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO LAKE ENHANCEMENT LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY WITH TROUGH AXIS SLIDING THROUGH ALONG WITH FAVORABLE NNW
BDRY LAYER FLOW AND DEEP MOISTURE. EXPECTED A COUPLE MORE INCHES
OF SNOW NEAR LAKE MI ON MON AS SEVERAL LAKE ENHANCED BANDS PIVOT
TO THE NORTHEAST WITH BACKING LL FLOW. OTHERWISE...THE REST OF
THE CWA WILL EXPERIENCE CLOUDY SKIES LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
WITH THE CHANCE FOR SCT SHSN AND LITTLE SNOW ACCUMULATION

LONG TERM...
UNSEASONABLY COLD...WET PATTN TO CONT THROUGH THE PD AND MORE
INDICATIVE OF LT DEC THAN LT NOV.

BRIEF MODERATION INTO EARLY WED BEHIND DEPARTING DEEP SYS IN THE
SHRT TERM AND INADV OF STG SECONDARY SW DROPPING OUT OF CANADA
W/RENEWED CYCLOGENESIS TAKING SHAPE OVR THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
WED. THIS SYS CONTS TO LOOK MORE AND MORE IMPRESSIVE ESP IN LIGHT OF
SIG POLAR INTRUSION BEHIND DIGGING MID LVL TROUGH AND IMPRESSIVE
BAROCLINIC ZONE DVLPG THROUGH THE OH VALLEY. OF NOTE IS IMPRESSIVE
DVLPMNT SEEN IN 12Z GFS/ECMWF HWVR STILL QUITE A BIT OF SPREAD IN
TIMING AND TRACK OF SFC LOW CNTR AND DEPTH OF DVLPG MID LVL TROUGH
BUT ATTM LEANING TWD MORE AMPLIFIED GFS/ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTION.
OTHER CONCERN LIES W/PTYPE AND CONSIDERABLE WAA AHD OF SYS COUNTERED
BY SIG DIABATIC EFFECTS WITHIN INCREASING LG SCALE ASCENT WED.
PRUDENT CHOICE IS TO KEEP RASN MENTION CNTRL GOING XPC FAR NW WHERE
SHRT TERM SUGGEST GREATEST SNOW CVR WILL LIE AND THUS COLDEST BNDRY
LYR TEMP PROFILES...SIMILAR TO GFS/ENSEMBLE MEAN WHILE SE CORNER
WILL LIKELY SEE JUST RAIN. HWVR TREMENDOUS CAA TO FOLLOW IN BEHIND
AS SFC LOW LIFTS RAPIDLY INTO QB BY 12Z THU BUT LK EFFECT POTENTIAL
IN RELATIVELY FLAT CYCLONIC WESTERLY FLW HIGHLY UNCERTAIN YET KEPT
CLOSE W/PRIOR POP ALIGNMENT. TEMPS THROUGH THE PD WELL BLO NORMAL.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE MONDAY
     NIGHT FOR INZ003-004.

     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY EVENING
     FOR INZ005.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 AM EST /6 AM CST/ THIS MORNING
     TO 7 PM EST /6 PM CST/ MONDAY FOR INZ006-008-012>017-020-
     022>024.

MI...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE MONDAY
     NIGHT FOR MIZ077.

     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY EVENING
     FOR MIZ078>080.

OH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM SUNDAY TO 7 PM EST MONDAY FOR
     LMZ043-046.

&&

SHORT TERM...STEINWEDEL
LONG TERM...HOLSTEN
AVIATION...MURPHY

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
543 AM EST SAT NOV 29 2008

INZ003>009-012>018-020-022>027-032>034-MIZ077>081-OHZ001-002-004-005-
015-016-024-025-301045-
LA PORTE-ST. JOSEPH IN-ELKHART-LAGRANGE-STEUBEN-NOBLE-DE KALB-STARKE-
PULASKI-MARSHALL-FULTON IN-KOSCIUSKO-WHITLEY-ALLEN IN-WHITE-CASS IN-
MIAMI-WABASH-HUNTINGTON-WELLS-ADAMS-GRANT-BLACKFORD-JAY-BERRIEN-
CASS MI-ST. JOSEPH MI-BRANCH-HILLSDALE-WILLIAMS-FULTON OH-DEFIANCE-
HENRY-PAULDING-PUTNAM-VAN WERT-ALLEN OH-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...MICHIGAN CITY...LA PORTE...SOUTH BEND...
MISHAWAKA...ELKHART...GOSHEN...LAGRANGE...TOPEKA...ANGOLA...
KENDALLVILLE...LIGONIER...AUBURN...GARRETT...KNOX...NORTH JUDSON...
WINAMAC...FRANCESVILLE...PLYMOUTH...BREMEN...ROCHESTER...WARSAW...
WINONA LAKE...COLUMBIA CITY...SOUTH WHITLEY...FORT WAYNE...
MONTICELLO...BROOKSTON...LOGANSPORT...PERU...WABASH...
NORTH MANCHESTER...HUNTINGTON...BLUFFTON...OSSIAN...DECATUR...
BERNE...MARION...HARTFORD CITY...MONTPELIER...PORTLAND...NILES...
BENTON HARBOR...ST. JOSEPH...BUCHANAN...DOWAGIAC...CASSOPOLIS...
STURGIS...THREE RIVERS...COLDWATER...HILLSDALE...BRYAN...WAUSEON...
ARCHBOLD...DEFIANCE...NAPOLEON...PAULDING...ANTWERP...OTTAWA...
PANDORA...VAN WERT...DELPHOS...LIMA
543 AM EST SAT NOV 29 2008 /443 AM CST SAT NOV 29 2008/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST OHIO...
SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN AND NORTHERN INDIANA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

WINTER WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP SUNDAY AND PERSIST INTO
MONDAY. A RAIN AND SNOW MIX WILL CHANGE OVER TO ALL SNOW SUNDAY
AFTERNOON WITH SNOW LIKELY TO CONTINUE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.
LAKE ENHANCED SNOW IS EXPECTED DOWNWIND OF LAKE MICHIGAN OVER FAR
SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN INTO NORTHWEST INDIANA MONDAY INTO MONDAY
NIGHT. EVENT SNOWFALL TOTALS BY LATE MONDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE
BETWEEN 3 AND 6 INCHES...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE
WHERE LAKE EFFECT SNOW BANDS PERSIST.

A SECOND WEATHER SYSTEM SHOULD AFFECT THE AREA WEDNESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF WINTRY WEATHER. WINDY
CONDITIONS ALONG WITH LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL
FOR BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

&&

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO FOR FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES...OR
CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT WEATHER.GOV/IWX

LMZ043-046-301045-
NEW BUFFALO MI TO ST JOSEPH MI-MICHIGAN CITY IN TO NEW BUFFALO MI-
543 AM EST SAT NOV 29 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN LAKE
MICHIGAN.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS FOR SMALL CRAFT ARE LIKELY DURING MUCH OF
THE UPCOMING WEEK WITH WINDS AND WAVES HAZARDOUS TO MARINERS. GALE
FORCE WINDS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY.

&&

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO FOR FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES...OR
CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT WEATHER.GOV/IWX/PROGRAMAREAS/MARINE/INDEX.PHP