Severe Thunderstorm Warning 82, NWS Northern Indiana

000 
WWUS53 KIWX 211627
SVSIWX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
1226 PM EDT SAT JUN 21 2008

INC085-183-211715-
/O.CON.KIWX.SV.W.0082.000000T0000Z-080621T1715Z/
KOSCIUSKO IN-WHITLEY IN-
1226 PM EDT SAT JUN 21 2008

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 115 PM EDT
FOR WESTERN WHITLEY AND SOUTHERN KOSCIUSKO COUNTIES...

AT 1222 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE
HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS SEVERE STORM WAS
LOCATED 3 MILES SOUTHWEST OF WINONA LAKE...AND MOVING EAST AT 29 MPH.

LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM INCLUDE...
  COLUMBIA CITY AND TRI-LAKES...
  PIERCETON...
  SOUTH WHITLEY...
  WOOSTER AND SIDNEY...
  RIDINGER LAKE AND BIG BARBEE LAKE...
  LARWILL AND COLLAMER...

HAIL UP TO NICKEL SIZE WAS REPORTED WEST OF MENTONE WITH THIS SEVERE 
THUNDERSTORM. THIS IS A DANGEROUS SITUATION...SEEK SAFE SHELTER AND 
STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS

IF YOU HAVE SEVERE WEATHER TO REPORT...YOU CAN CALL YOUR LOCAL LAW
ENFORCEMENT AGENCY FOR RELAY TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

LAT...LON 4107 8602 4110 8603 4110 8608 4117 8608
      4118 8607 4129 8606 4129 8555 4128 8555
      4127 8546 4105 8547
TIME...MOT...LOC 1626Z 272DEG 25KT 4118 8582

$$
SIMPSON

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
1109 AM EDT SAT JUN 21 2008

.UPDATE...
HAVE INCREASED STORM CHANCES TO LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON OVER MOST
AREAS. HAVE ALSO ADDED A CHANCE FOR SEVERE STORMS WITH LARGE HAIL
AND DAMAGING WINDS. AN UPPER TROF WILL MOVE INTO THE FORECAST AREA
LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. ALTHOUGH BULK/SHEAR NOT PARTICULARLY
IMPRESSIVE...LARGE SCALE LIFT COMBINED WITH AIRMASS
DESTABILIZATION WITH MAX CAPES IN THE 2000/2500 J/KG RANGE SHOULD
ALLOW STORMS TO FORM. BELIEVE STORMS WILL LIKELY BECOME MORE
ORGANIZED THIS AFTERNOON...ENHANCING THE SEVERE POTENTIAL. HEAVY
RAINFALL IS ALSO POSSIBLE GIVEN HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AND
PREEXISTING OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES.

&&

.AVIATION...
PLACED TIMING OF STORMS IN SBN/FWA TERMINALS TO COINCIDE WITH
UPSTREAM CONVECTION AND ANTICIPATED ARRIVAL. SEE UPDATE ABOVE FOR
MORE DETAILS.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 343 AM EDT SAT JUN 21 2008/

SHORT TERM...
TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT

07Z ANALYSIS REVEALS A WEAK MID LEVEL IMPULSE PUSHING INTO SOUTHERN
MI. WEAK THETA-E ADVECTION COUPLED WITH THIS DISTURBANCE IS
SUPPORTING SCT SHRA AND TS ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FA...AS
H95 TO H7 LAPSE RATES ARE NEAR ADIABATIC. FURTHER UPSTREAM ACROSS
PORTIONS OF WI INTO IA...A SECONDARY AREA OF CONVECTION IS ONGOING
ALONG THE SFC COLD FRONT. CONVECTION HAS PULSED UP SOME OVER THE LAST
HOUR AS A POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES THE REGION FROM THE NW.
THIS FEATURE CAN BE SEEN OVER SE SD IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. THESE
TWO SYSTEMS WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR SENSIBLE WEATHER ACROSS THE FA
TODAY.

FORECAST MODEL DIFFERENCES WERE SMALL...WITH H85 TEMPS PERHAPS BEING
THE BIGGEST SOURCE OF DISCREPANCY. HAVE TAILORED THE FORECAST TO
THE NAM12/NGM AND RUC13...WITH PRECIP TIMING ALIGNED TO THE ARW.

TODAY...MORNING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO
PUSH E FOCUSED NEAR THE IN/MI BORDER. SKIES SHOULD CLEAR AFTER
DAYBREAK ALLOWING FOR DECENT INSOLATION AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT. POTENT MID LEVEL SPEED MAX MENTIONED ABOVE WILL PUSH
INTO THE REGION BY EARLY AFTERNOON FORCING LARGE SCALE ASCENT AND
HEIGHT FALLS OVER THE REGION. H4 ISOTACHS BASED ON THE NAM12 PROG
NOSE OF THE JET ENTERING THE FA BY MID AFTERNOON. TROPOPAUSE MAPS
CONFIRM THAT THE FA WILL BE UNDER THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF AN THE
UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM...BUT RATHER
WEAK FLOW PER 60 TO 70 KNOTS SHOULD LIMIT ADDED LIFT TO A DEGREE.
THUNDERSTORM MODE IS EXPECTED TO BE MULTI CELL/PULSE. WEAK DEEP LAYER
0-6KM BULK SHEAR AT ONLY 30 KNOTS WILL PRECLUDE THE DEVELOPMENT OF ANY
DECENT ROTATING UPDRAFTS...AND 0-3KM SHEAR VALUES OF ONLY 10 TO 15
KNOTS WILL BE UNSUPPORTED OF A TRANSITION INTO A SELF SUSTAINING
LINEAR CONVECTIVE SYSTEM...ESPECIALLY WITH MLCAPE VALUES LIMITED
TO AROUND 1100 J/KG. HOWEVER...STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 7
C/KM WILL SUPPORT A FEW VIGOROUS UPDRAFTS...WHICH WILL HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS GIVEN STEEP LL LAPSE
RATES AND INVERTED V SOUNDINGS. HAVE INTRODUCED DAMAGING WIND
MENTION FOR THIS. EXPECTING CONVECTION TO DEVELOP/INTENSIFY OVER
CENTRAL PORTIONS THE FA AND PUSH E...WITH THINGS WINDING DOWN IN
THE EVENING AS HEATING IS DIMINISHED. LOOK FOR CLEARING LATE
TONIGHT WITH COOLER TEMPS.

SUNDAY...ANOTHER MID LEVEL IMPULSE AND WILL TRAVERSE THE REGION ON
THE BACKSIDE OF A LONG WAVE TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTH FROM HUDSON BAY.
THIS IMPULSE LOOKS TO BE RATHER STRONG GIVEN 100 KNOTS OF UPPER
LEVEL FLOW AT TROPOPAUSE LEVEL COUPLED WITH 70 KNOTS AT H4 NOSING
INTO WEST CENTRAL IL. DAYTIME HEATING UNDER RATHER STEEP LAPSE RATES
/MID AND LL/ WILL AGAIN SUPPORT CONVECTION. INVERTED V SOUNDINGS AND
SUBSTANTIAL DRY AIR ALOFT WILL AGAIN SUPPORT A GUSTY WIND THREAT.
HOWEVER ...WITH BEST LARGE SCALE ASCENT/LIFT/AND SHEAR REMAINING WELL
SW OF THE FA...NOT EXPECTING WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER ESPECIALLY
WITH DISMAL CAPE VALUES BARELY PUSHING 700 J/KG PER DEWPOINTS MIXING
DOWN TO THE LOW 50S. HAVE LOWERED POPS OVER THE FAR NW GIVEN STRONG
DIURNAL NATURE OF CONVECTION...WHICH WOULD BE HIGHLY LIMITED BY LAKE
MI.

TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BE AROUND NORMAL TODAY...WITH BELOW NORMAL
TEMPS SUNDAY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.

LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...

MODELS HAVE HAD DECENT CONSISTENCY THE LAST 72 HOURS...WITH THE GFS
PLAYING CATCH UP TO THE EURO WITH ABOUT A 12 TO 24 HR LAG TIME THE
LAST FEW DAYS. WILL MAKE LITTLE ADJUSTMENT TO PREVIOUS
FORECAST...AREAS OF CONCERN ARE LATE IN THE PERIOD WHERE MODELS
HAVE BEEN HINTING FOR A MUCH MORE PRECIP LADEN SET OF DAYS INTO THE
WEEKEND. WILL TAKE THE EXISTING FORECAST WITH NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE
THRU TUESDAY AND THEN BLEND IN SOME OF OPERATIONAL EURO DATA FROM
WED INTO THE WEEKEND.

MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

DEEP TROUGH WILL BE PUSHING EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
MONDAY...COLD H500 TEMPS WILL LINGER ACROSS THE REGION AND START TO
PUSH EAST BY AFTERNOON...MAY STILL HAVE DECENT LAPSE RATE AND SOME
MOISTURE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF
THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY...WILL END WITH LOSS OF HEATING AND WARMING
ALOFT DURING THE EVENING...AS SFC HIGH MOVES MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY MORNING. SFC HIGH LINGERS TUESDAY WITH SOME MID LVL RIDGING
MOVING OVER THE AREA...PLENTY OF SUNSHINE EXPECTED. LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT A SHRTWV WILL PUSHING INTO THE REGION ALLOWING FOR SOME
POSSIBLE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO WEDNESDAY. TEMPS WILL BE
WELL BELOW NORMAL MONDAY...WITH SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TUESDAY WITH
THE ADDED SUNSHINE AND SLIGHT BUMP IN H850 TEMPS.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

MODEST UNCERTAINTY IN THIS PERIOD...MORE SO IN THE LATTER PORTIONS
OF THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THOUGH WITH THIS STATED THE MODELS HAVE BEEN
ZEROING IN ON A WETTER SOLUTION FOR THE PERIOD THE LAST FEW
DAYS...WITH THE SUGGESTION THAT A BOUNDARY MAY BE STRUNG NEAR THE
REGION AFTER THE SHRTWV MOVES THRU WEDNESDAY ALLOWING FOR A FOCUS
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY AS WE END THE WEEK AND MOVE
TOWARDS THE WEEKEND. THE CURRENT EURO SOLUTION HAS PRECIP POSSIBLE
EACH DAY OF THE PERIOD...WITH WEAK SHRTWV ENERGY MOVING IN A
PROGRESSIVE FLOW ACROSS THE CONUS WITH THE BOUNDARY POSSIBLY MORE TO
THE NORTH AND WEST OF THE REGION. STILL THIS COULD ALLOW FOR THE
REGION TO JUICE UP SOME WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MOVING INTO THE
REGION WITH DEWPOINTS WELL INTO THE 60S AND PULSE CONVECTION IN THE
AFTN A POSSIBLE SOLUTION EACH DAY AS SHRTWVS MOVE THRU. HAVE NOT
JUMPED ALL THE WAY ON BOARD AS OF YET WITH THE FULLY WET
SOLUTION...WITH THURSDAY STILL DRY AS THE BOUNDARY MAY BE TOO FAR TO
THE WEST THAT DAY BEFORE STARTING TO PUSH EAST SOME FOR FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY AND THE USUAL SLOWER PUSH NORTH OF MOISTURE INTO THE REGION
THAN THE MODELS ADVERTISE. WILL LET THE DAY SHIFT SEE IF THE GROWING
TREND FOR POSSIBLE PRECIP IS THERE FOR ANOTHER RUN...IF SO IT MAY
BECOME MORE THAN PRUDENT TO ADD PRECIP CHANCES FOR THURSDAY AS WELL.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...CHAMBERLAIN
LONG TERM...SCHOTT
AVIATION...SKIPPER
UPDATE...SKIPPER

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
400 AM EDT SAT JUN 21 2008

INZ003>009-012>018-020-022>027-032>034-MIZ077>081-OHZ001-002-004-005-
015-016-024-025-220930-
LA PORTE-ST. JOSEPH IN-ELKHART-LAGRANGE-STEUBEN-NOBLE-DE KALB-STARKE-
PULASKI-MARSHALL-FULTON IN-KOSCIUSKO-WHITLEY-ALLEN IN-WHITE-CASS IN-
MIAMI-WABASH-HUNTINGTON-WELLS-ADAMS-GRANT-BLACKFORD-JAY-BERRIEN-
CASS MI-ST. JOSEPH MI-BRANCH-HILLSDALE-WILLIAMS-FULTON OH-DEFIANCE-
HENRY-PAULDING-PUTNAM-VAN WERT-ALLEN OH-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...MICHIGAN CITY...LA PORTE...SOUTH BEND...
MISHAWAKA...ELKHART...GOSHEN...LAGRANGE...TOPEKA...ANGOLA...
KENDALLVILLE...LIGONIER...AUBURN...GARRETT...KNOX...NORTH JUDSON...
WINAMAC...FRANCESVILLE...PLYMOUTH...BREMEN...ROCHESTER...WARSAW...
WINONA LAKE...COLUMBIA CITY...SOUTH WHITLEY...FORT WAYNE...
MONTICELLO...BROOKSTON...LOGANSPORT...PERU...WABASH...
NORTH MANCHESTER...HUNTINGTON...BLUFFTON...OSSIAN...DECATUR...
BERNE...MARION...HARTFORD CITY...MONTPELIER...PORTLAND...NILES...
BENTON HARBOR...ST. JOSEPH...BUCHANAN...DOWAGIAC...CASSOPOLIS...
STURGIS...THREE RIVERS...COLDWATER...HILLSDALE...BRYAN...WAUSEON...
ARCHBOLD...DEFIANCE...NAPOLEON...PAULDING...ANTWERP...OTTAWA...
PANDORA...VAN WERT...DELPHOS...LIMA
400 AM EDT SAT JUN 21 2008 /300 AM CDT SAT JUN 21 2008/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST OHIO...
SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN AND NORTHERN INDIANA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE TODAY AND TONIGHT. SOME STORMS MAY
BE STRONG TO SEVERE WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL AS THE MAIN THREATS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

THERE IS A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY EVENING. A SLIGHT RISK
FOR ISOLATED STRONG OR SEVERE STORMS EXISTS SUNDAY...WITH HAIL
AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS BEING THE MAIN THREATS...ALONG WITH
DANGEROUS LIGHTNING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO FOR FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES...OR
CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT WEATHER.GOV/IWX

LMZ043-046-220930-
NEW BUFFALO MI TO ST JOSEPH MI-MICHIGAN CITY IN TO NEW BUFFALO MI-
400 AM EDT SAT JUN 21 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN LAKE
MICHIGAN.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE TODAY AND TONIGHT. SOME STORMS MAY
BE STRONG WITH GUSTY WINDS AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING AS THE MAIN
THREATS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

THERE IS A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY EVENING. A SLIGHT RISK
FOR ISOLATED STRONG OR SEVERE STORMS EXISTS SUNDAY...WITH STRONG
GUSTY WINDS BEING THE MAIN THREATS...ALONG WITH DANGEROUS
LIGHTNING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

&&

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO FOR FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES...OR
CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT WEATHER.GOV/IWX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
1206 PM EDT SAT JUN 21 2008

..TIME..    ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1205 PM     HAIL             MENTONE                 41.17N  86.04W
06/21/2008  M0.25 INCH       KOSCIUSKO          IN   FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

&&

EVENT NUMBER 01550

BML