Severe Thunderstorm Warning 23, NWS Northern Indiana

000 
WWUS53 KIWX 040435
SVSIWX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
1233 AM EDT WED JUN 4 2008

INC075-040515-
/O.CON.KIWX.SV.W.0023.000000T0000Z-080604T0515Z/
JAY IN-
1233 AM EDT WED JUN 4 2008

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 115 AM EDT
FOR JAY COUNTY...

AT 1233 AM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS CONTINUED 
TO MONITOR A LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PENNY 
SIZE HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THESE SEVERE 
STORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM PORTLAND TO 8 MILES 
SOUTHEAST OF PORTLAND AND MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH.

LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS INCLUDE...
  PORTLAND
  BRYANT AND BRICE...
  WESTCHESTER AND BELLFOUNTAIN...
  TRINITY...
  NEW CORYDON...

IF YOU HAVE SEVERE WEATHER TO REPORT...YOU CAN CALL YOUR LOCAL LAW
ENFORCEMENT AGENCY FOR RELAY TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

LAT...LON 4035 8510 4038 8509 4042 8512 4047 8515
      4052 8509 4059 8480 4032 8480 4032 8508
TIME...MOT...LOC 0433Z 250DEG 29KT 4042 8500 4038 8491
          4034 8488

$$


LASHLEY

000 
WWUS53 KIWX 040459
SVSIWX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
1257 AM EDT WED JUN 4 2008

INC075-040507-
/O.CAN.KIWX.SV.W.0023.000000T0000Z-080604T0515Z/
JAY IN-
1257 AM EDT WED JUN 4 2008

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR JAY COUNTY IS CANCELLED...

AT 1257 AM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
THAT THE LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAD
MOVED OUT OF THE AREA. THEREFORE...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED. 

ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT. 
HEAVY RAIN AND LOCALIZED FLOODING IS BECOMING A CONCERN. ADDITIONAL 
ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL POSSIBLE AS WELL.

IF YOU HAVE SEVERE WEATHER TO REPORT...YOU CAN CALL YOUR LOCAL LAW
ENFORCEMENT AGENCY FOR RELAY TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

LAT...LON 4035 8510 4038 8509 4042 8512 4047 8515
      4052 8509 4059 8480 4032 8480 4032 8508
TIME...MOT...LOC 0457Z 250DEG 29KT 4049 8476 4045 8467
          4041 8464

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
738 PM EDT TUE JUN 3 2008

.AVIATION...

COMPLICATED AVIATION FORECAST ONCE AGAIN WITH NUMEROUS BOUNDARIES
AND CONVECTIVE COMPLEX DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED OVER NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.
CURRENTLY WATCHING BOUNDARY LIFTING NORTHEAST THROUGH ILLINOIS. THIS
APPEARS TO BE ON NOSE OF DEVELOPING MODEST LOW LEVEL JET AND THETA E
MAX. COMPLICATING THIS SITUATION IS LAKE BOUNDARY MOVING SOUTH OFF
OF LAKE MICHIGAN. WAITING TO SEE IF THIS INTERSECTION FIRES ANY
CONVECTION NEXT HOUR OR SO. IF IT DOES...KSBN WILL NEED UPDATE.
OTHERWISE WITH LOW LEVEL JET THROUGH THE NIGHT AND MOIST LOW LEVELS
EXPECT CONVECTIVE COMPLEX UPSTREAM SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT.
TRAJECTORIES ONCE AGAIN FAVOR AREAS JUST TO SOUTH OF TAF SITES BUT
WITH THETA E ADVECTION COULD SEE DEVELOPMENT IN TAF VICINITIES AS
WELL. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FOR LATER UPDATES AS UNCERTAINTY IS QUITE
HIGH. WINDS ALSO RATHER LIGHT NEAR BOUNDARY ACROSS AREA. IFR CIGS
AND MVFR VIS POSSIBLE BUT AGAIN DEPENDENT ON BOUNDARY LIFTING NORTH
AND RESULTANT WIND FIELDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
MCV ROTATING INTO NW IN ATTM W/RAPIDLY DECAYING SRN EXTENT TO
STRATIFORM RAIN SHIELD IN RESPONSE TO ENLARGING WAKE DEPRESSION AND
LOSS OF SIG LL MSTR FLUX DUE INTENSE CONVN WORKING THROUGH SRN IN
ALG COMPOSITED OUTFLW BNDRY FM EARLIER MORNING/OVERNIGHT MCS AND
WHICH EXTENDS UPSTREAM INTO NE MO W/RENEWED RECENT CONV DVLPMNT
THERE
AND BEST ASSIMILATED BY 12Z GFS WHICH FIRES ANOTHER MCS ACRS WRN IL
THIS EVENING AND THEN ROLLS EWD THROUGH CNTRL/SRN IN AFT MIDNIGHT.
HWVR GROSS SHRT TERM SIGNAL AUGMENTED VIA SFC/SAT OBS SUGGESTS LTL
SPRT OVERNIGHT SAVE FAR SOUTH IN PROXIMITY TO STALLED OUTFLW AND
VEERED WSWLY LLJ DVLPMNT YET ORIENTATION OF OUTFLW BNDRY DOES NOT
LOOK VRY CONDUCIVE. WILL SCALE MENTION BACK SOMEWHAT AT THIS POINT
ALTHOUGH HESITANT TO DROP TO CHC MENTION GIVEN RUC POSITIONING OF
VRY UNSTABLE THETA-E WEDGE INTO WRN IL. OTHERWISE VAPOR SHOWS LTL
MECHANISM ALOFT UPSTREAM TO LATCH ONTO OTHER THEN MID LVL TROUGH OVR
CO WHICH LIFTS OUT INTO THE SOUTHERN LAKES WED AFTN. GIVEN OBVIOUS
POTENTIAL OF FUTURE MESOSCALE COMPLICATIONS CAN NOT SEE ANY
JUSTIFICATION FOR ANYTHING OTHER THEN MID RANGE CHC POPS WED/WED
NIGHT ESP IN LIGHT OF EXTREMELY CONFLICTED INDIVIDUAL MODEL SIGNALS.

&&

.LONG TERM...
THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

VERY MINOR CHANGES MADE TO ONGOING FORECAST. BASIC UPPER LEVEL
PATTERN WILL REMAIN LOCKED THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD FEATURING
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE EASTERN CONUS WITH MEAN TROUGHING IN
THE WESTERN CONUS. PATTERN WILL FAVOR A WARM PERIOD WITH ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. CONTINUED TO FOLLOW THE
CONSISTENT AND REASONABLE ECMWF SOLUTION WHICH AGREES WELL WITH THE
LATEST MEAN NAEFS/GEFS/MREF SOLUTIONS. GIVEN THE MAGNITUDE OF
RIDGING EXPECTED OVER THE EASTERN CONUS PER PLUS 1 STANDARD
DEVIATION MREF H85 TEMP PROGS FRI/SAT AND AGAIN MONDAY. BEST CHANCE
FOR ANY ORGANIZED PRECIP STILL FAVORS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SAT AS A
RATHER POTENT MID LEVEL WAVE WILL TRAVERSE THE GREAT LAKES.
ALTHOUGH FORECAST MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND THIS WEAVE FARTHER NORTH
GIVEN THE INTENSITY OF THE DEVELOPING RIDGE.

THURSDAY...ALLOWED LOW CHANCE POPS TO RIDE IN THE NORTH GIVEN
CONCERN
ON SPEED OF RETREATING WARM FRONT AND ORIENTATION OF H5 FLOW. BUT
WITH CAPPING PROGGED IN GFS/NAM BUFFER DATA...ITS NOT LOOKING TOO
FAVORABLE AT THIS POINT.

FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...MEAN ENSEMBLE RUNS AND GFS/ECMWF SOLUTIONS
CONTINUE TO SUPPORT THE EJECTION OF A DIGGING WESTERN CONUS TROUGH.
THIS FEATURE WILL QUICKLY PUSH NE INTO THE GREAT LAKES BY FRIDAY
EVENING...SUPPORTING LARGE SCALE ASCENT AND ELIMINATION OF ANY
REMAINING CAP. HOWEVER...FRONTAL FORCING AND BEST FLOW IS EXPECTED
TO
PASS NW OF THE CWA...LEAVING ONLY CONVECTIVE PROCESS AS THE THE SOLE
FORCING MECHANISM...AS THE ASSOCIATED FRONT WASHES OUT.
HENCE...WILL LEAVE 50 POP IN THE FORECAST FOR NOW...GIVEN
UNCERTAINTIES ON CONVECTIVE SYSTEM DEVELOPMENT/MAINTENANCE AND
PROPAGATION. HAVE PUSHED PRECIP LATER IN THE SE GIVEN TREND OF
LATER SYSTEM ARRIVAL. CARRIED PRECIP CHANCES INTO THE ENTIRE DAY
SAT WITH WASHED OUT FRONTAL BOUNDARY/TROUGH CONTINUING ITS SLOW
EASTWARD MOVEMENT TROUGH THE CWA UNDER DECENT CAPE/CIN PROFILES.

SAT THROUGH TUESDAY...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL AGAIN FAVOR THE THE
REGION WITH WAA SUPPORTING H85 TEMPS OF 18 TO 20 C THROUGH TUES. GFS
CONTINUES TO TRY AND FLATTEN THE RIDGE WITH THE EJECTION OF A
WESTERN CONUS TROUGH IN THE MON-TUES TIME FRAME. HOWEVER...GIVEN
VERY WARM H85 TEMPS AND STRONG NATURE OF THE PROGGED RIDGE PER H85
T STANDARD DEVIATION NOTED ABOVE...HAVE RETAINED DRY FORECAST
MONDAY...AND INTRODUCED A DRY TUESDAY UNTIL FURTHER CONSENSUS IS
REACHED.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...HOLSTEN
LONG TERM...CHAMBERLAIN
AVIATION...LASHLEY

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
1131 AM EDT TUE JUN 3 2008

INZ003>009-012>018-MIZ077>081-OHZ001-002-004-005-015-016-024-025-
041545-
LA PORTE-ST. JOSEPH IN-ELKHART-LAGRANGE-STEUBEN-NOBLE-DE KALB-STARKE-
PULASKI-MARSHALL-FULTON IN-KOSCIUSKO-WHITLEY-ALLEN IN-BERRIEN-
CASS MI-ST. JOSEPH MI-BRANCH-HILLSDALE-WILLIAMS-FULTON OH-DEFIANCE-
HENRY-PAULDING-PUTNAM-VAN WERT-ALLEN OH-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...MICHIGAN CITY...LA PORTE...SOUTH BEND...
MISHAWAKA...ELKHART...GOSHEN...LAGRANGE...TOPEKA...ANGOLA...
KENDALLVILLE...LIGONIER...AUBURN...GARRETT...KNOX...NORTH JUDSON...
WINAMAC...FRANCESVILLE...PLYMOUTH...BREMEN...ROCHESTER...WARSAW...
WINONA LAKE...COLUMBIA CITY...SOUTH WHITLEY...FORT WAYNE...NILES...
BENTON HARBOR...ST. JOSEPH...BUCHANAN...DOWAGIAC...CASSOPOLIS...
STURGIS...THREE RIVERS...COLDWATER...HILLSDALE...BRYAN...
MONTPELIER...WAUSEON...ARCHBOLD...DEFIANCE...NAPOLEON...PAULDING...
ANTWERP...OTTAWA...PANDORA...VAN WERT...DELPHOS...LIMA
1131 AM EDT TUE JUN 3 2008 /1031 AM CDT TUE JUN 3 2008/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST OHIO...
SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN AND NORTHERN INDIANA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND AGAIN LATE TONIGHT.
SOME OF THE STORMS MAY CONTAIN HEAVY RAIN...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND
SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 30 WITH AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING LARGE HAIL POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY AND FRIDAY.
SOME OF THESE STORMS MAY BE SEVERE.

THE FIRST HOT AND HUMID DAY OF THE SUMMER IS EXPECTED ON THURSDAY
WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 90S ACROSS THE AREA.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED THIS AFTERNOON OR TONIGHT.

&&

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO FOR FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES...OR
CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT WEATHER.GOV/IWX

INZ020-022>027-032>034-041545-
WHITE-CASS IN-MIAMI-WABASH-HUNTINGTON-WELLS-ADAMS-GRANT-BLACKFORD-
JAY-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...MONTICELLO...BROOKSTON...LOGANSPORT...
PERU...WABASH...NORTH MANCHESTER...HUNTINGTON...BLUFFTON...OSSIAN...
DECATUR...BERNE...MARION...HARTFORD CITY...MONTPELIER...PORTLAND
1131 AM EDT TUE JUN 3 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN INDIANA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND AGAIN LATE TONIGHT.
A FEW OF THESE STORMS MAY BE SEVERE LATE THIS AFTERNOON WITH
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS POSSIBLE BUT A MUCH GREATER THREAT
FOR HEAVY RAIN EXISTS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE HIGHWAY 24 CORRIDOR
WHICH MAY LEAD TO SOME MINOR FLOODING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY AND FRIDAY.
SOME OF THESE STORMS MAY BE SEVERE.

THE FIRST HOT AND HUMID DAY OF THE SUMMER IS EXPECTED ON THURSDAY
WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 90S ACROSS THE AREA.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS UNLIKELY THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

&&

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO FOR FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES...OR
CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT WEATHER.GOV/IWX

LMZ043-046-041545-
NEW BUFFALO MI TO ST JOSEPH MI-MICHIGAN CITY IN TO NEW BUFFALO MI-
1131 AM EDT TUE JUN 3 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN LAKE
MICHIGAN.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND AGAIN
LATE TONIGHT. NO SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY AND FRIDAY.
THE STORMS MAY CONTAIN LARGE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS OVER 50 KNOTS.

&&

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO FOR FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES...OR
CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT WEATHER.GOV/IWX