Severe Thunderstorm Warning 132, NWS Northern Indiana

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
648 AM EDT TUE JUL 8 2008

.AVIATION...
LOW PRES OVER LS THIS MORNING WILL MOVE ENE INTO QUEBEC BY 12Z
WED WITH TRAILING CDFNT MOVG SE THROUGH SBN AROUND 08Z AND FWA
AROUND 11Z. A WARM/MOIST AIRMASS IS IN PLACE AHEAD OF THE FRONT
AND EXPECT CONVECTION WILL BE FOCUSSED IN THIS AREA ALONG REMNANT
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM OVERNIGHT ACTIVITY. THUS...STUCK WITH
PREVIOUS FCST OF TEMPO TSRA WITH MVFR CONDITIONS AT BOTH TERMINALS
THIS AFTN...THOUGH CONCERNED THAT AMOUNT OF DEBRIS CLOUDINESS OVER
THE AREA ATTM MAY LIMIT DESTABILIZATION TODAY. SOME MVFR CIGS
ALONG THIS OUTFLOW BOUNDARY THIS MORNING WILL AFFECT FWA EARLY.
ALSO EXPECT SOME MVFR VSBYS IN BR JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT AT FWA
TONIGHT. OTRWS OUTSIDE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS SHOULD BE MAINLY VFR OVER
THE NEXT 24HRS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 410 AM EDT TUE JUL 8 2008/

SHORT TERM...
TODAY THROUGH WED NGT...
LINE OF TSTMS WHICH FORMED ALONG A PREFRONTAL TROUGH OVER IA YDAY
AFTN HAD WEAKENED AS IT APPROACHED OUR CWA THIS MORNING. SLIGHTLY
WARMER/DRIER AIR ALOFT LIMITING ELEVATED INSTABILITY IN OUR
CWA...ALONG WITH STORMS OUTRUNNING FORCING MECHANISM LIKELY WILL
RESULT IN CONTD SLOW DECREASE IN COVERAGE/INTENSITY OF TSTMS THIS
MORNING. DECAYING STORMS SHOULD LEAVE AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ACROSS THE
AREA TODAY WHICH COMBINED WITH DAYTIME DESTABILIZATION AND FORCING
ASSOCIATED WITH WK SHRTWV OVER IA THIS MORNING WHICH WILL MOVE EAST
ACROSS OUR CWA THIS AFTN SHOULD RESULT IN STORMS REDEVELOPING OVER
THE AREA LATER TODAY. INCREASED WINDS ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
SHRTWV WILL LEAD TO 25-30KT 0-6KM UNIDIRECTIONAL SHEAR WHICH COMBINED
WITH CAPES NEAR 2KJ/KG MAY SUPPORT SOME BOW ECHOES WITH LOCALLY
DAMAGING WINDS. LEFT MENTION OF HEAVY RAIN IN FCST AS PRECIP WATER
FCST NEAR 2 WITH POTENTIAL FOR SOME TRAINING OF STORMS ALONG ENE-
WSW ORIENTED BOUNDARY. STORMS ALONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARY/PREFRONTAL
TROUGH WILL LIKELY PUSH SOUTH CWA BY LATE TONIGHT WITH CDFNT
EXPECTED TO BE MOVG THROUGH SERN PORTION OF CWA WED MORNING.
LATEST MODEL RUNS SUGGEST POTENTIAL FOR SOME LINGERING SHOWERS SE
PAST 12Z BUT LEFT FCST DRY FOR NOW AS PREVIOUS RUNS HAD BEEN
CONSISTENT THAT PRECIP WOULD BE SE OF THE CWA BY THAT TIME. WK
SECONDARY FRONT/SHRTWV EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE AREA WED NGT BUT
MOISTURE SHOULD BE LACKING FOR ANY SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH IT.

LONG TERM...
THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

GENERAL ZONAL FLOW WILL PREVAIL INTO FRIDAY NIGHT GIVING A REPRIEVE
FROM MAINLY THE HUMIDITY. GFS THE COOLEST WITH TEMPS ON THURS WITH
850 MB TEMPS AS LOW AS +9 C YIELDING HIGHS MAYBE IN THE 70S.
HOWEVER...REMAINDER OF MODELS SHOWING 850 TEMPS MORE IN THE +12 TO
+14 C RANGE FOR HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S. THINK THE WARMER SCENARIO IS
STILL THE WAY TO GO SO WILL KEEP GRIDS AS IS.

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE LIES WITH FRONTAL BOUNDARY SET TO DROP INTO
THE GREAT LAKES FOR THE WEEKEND. STILL HAVE A CONCERNS AS TO EXACTLY
HOW FAR SOUTH THE BOUNDARY WILL MAKE IT INTO THE AREA...ALONG WITH
WARMING TEMPS ALOFT POSSIBLY CAPPING CONVECTION WITH 700 MB TEMPS IN
THE +9 TO MAYBE +11 C RANGE. GFS BRINGS IN CAPES AOA 1000 J/KG SO
COULD SEE SOME CONVECTION (ALTHOUGH WAS SHOWING OVER 3000 J/KG
YESTERDAY AND COULDNT MANAGE A STORM). BASED ON COMING INTO
COLLABORATION AND BEST SHOT FOR ANYTHING HAPPENING IN THE NW AREAS
CLOSER TO THE EDGE OF THE INVERSION...WILL ADD 30 POPS SAT
AFTERNOON. BEYOND THAT EXACTLY WHERE THE FRONT BECOMES PARALLEL TO
THE UPPER FLOW WILL TELL THE TALE OF ROUNDS OF CONVECTION AS SEVERAL
WAVES MOVES THROUGH THE FLOW AND AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE.
WILL KEEP REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND DRY AT THIS POINT.

BEYOND THAT...WARM UP STILL LOOKS TO BE ON TRACK WITH RETURN TO HEAT
AND HUMIDITY BY MONDAY AND INTO THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.
AGAIN...WILL KEEP TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S FOR NOW UNTIL FINAL
LOCATION OF STRONG RIDGING TAKES SHAPE.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...JT
LONG TERM...FISHER

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
445 AM EDT TUE JUL 8 2008

INZ003>009-012>018-020-022>027-032>034-MIZ077>081-OHZ001-002-004-005-
015-016-024-025-090845-
LA PORTE-ST. JOSEPH IN-ELKHART-LAGRANGE-STEUBEN-NOBLE-DE KALB-STARKE-
PULASKI-MARSHALL-FULTON IN-KOSCIUSKO-WHITLEY-ALLEN IN-WHITE-CASS IN-
MIAMI-WABASH-HUNTINGTON-WELLS-ADAMS-GRANT-BLACKFORD-JAY-BERRIEN-
CASS MI-ST. JOSEPH MI-BRANCH-HILLSDALE-WILLIAMS-FULTON OH-DEFIANCE-
HENRY-PAULDING-PUTNAM-VAN WERT-ALLEN OH-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...MICHIGAN CITY...LA PORTE...SOUTH BEND...
MISHAWAKA...ELKHART...GOSHEN...LAGRANGE...TOPEKA...ANGOLA...
KENDALLVILLE...LIGONIER...AUBURN...GARRETT...KNOX...NORTH JUDSON...
WINAMAC...FRANCESVILLE...PLYMOUTH...BREMEN...ROCHESTER...WARSAW...
WINONA LAKE...COLUMBIA CITY...SOUTH WHITLEY...FORT WAYNE...
MONTICELLO...BROOKSTON...LOGANSPORT...PERU...WABASH...
NORTH MANCHESTER...HUNTINGTON...BLUFFTON...OSSIAN...DECATUR...
BERNE...MARION...HARTFORD CITY...MONTPELIER...PORTLAND...NILES...
BENTON HARBOR...ST. JOSEPH...BUCHANAN...DOWAGIAC...CASSOPOLIS...
STURGIS...THREE RIVERS...COLDWATER...HILLSDALE...BRYAN...WAUSEON...
ARCHBOLD...DEFIANCE...NAPOLEON...PAULDING...ANTWERP...OTTAWA...
PANDORA...VAN WERT...DELPHOS...LIMA
445 AM EDT TUE JUL 8 2008 /345 AM CDT TUE JUL 8 2008/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST OHIO...
NORTHERN INDIANA AND SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME MORE LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. AT THIS TIME...THE PRIMARY THREAT REMAINS
VERY HEAVY RAIN WITH RATES OF ONE TO TWO INCHES PER HOUR POSSIBLE
WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS. THE POTENTIAL DOES EXIST FOR SOME OF
THE STORMS TO BECOME SEVERE WITH DAMAGING WINDS THE MOST LIKELY
FORM OF SEVERE WEATHER.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

THERE IS A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY AFTERNOON GENERALLY
NORTHWEST OF A LOGANSPORT INDIANA TO WAUSEON OHIO LINE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
REPORTS OF FLOODING WOULD BE APPRECIATED.

&&

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO FOR FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES...OR
CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT WEATHER.GOV/IWX

LMZ043-046-090845-
NEW BUFFALO MI TO ST JOSEPH MI-MICHIGAN CITY IN TO NEW BUFFALO MI-
445 AM EDT TUE JUL 8 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN LAKE
MICHIGAN.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME MORE LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. AT THIS TIME...THE PRIMARY THREAT REMAINS
VERY HEAVY RAIN WITH RATES OF ONE TO TWO INCHES PER HOUR POSSIBLE
WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS. THE POTENTIAL DOES EXIST FOR SOME OF
THE STORMS TO BECOME SEVERE WITH DAMAGING WINDS THE MOST LIKELY
FORM OF SEVERE WEATHER.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

THERE IS A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY AFTERNOON. LOCALLY
HIGHER WINDS AND WAVES WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY STORMS.

&&

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO FOR FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES...OR
CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT WEATHER.GOV/IWX