Severe Thunderstorm Warning 130, NWS Northern Indiana

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
702 PM EDT WED JUL 2 2008

.AVIATION...00Z TAFS
STRONG COLD FRONT WILL BE NEAR SBN AROUND 06Z AND FWA BY 12Z
THURSDAY. SHOWERS/STORMS...WITH BRIEF MVFR/IFR CIG/VIS
RESTRICTIONS...WILL BE POSSIBE ALONG AND AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY.
BEST CHANCE FOR THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE IN SBN BETWEEN 02Z AND
05Z...AND IN THE FWA AREA BETWEEN 04Z AND 08Z. AS A
RESULT...INCLUDED A MVFR TEMPO GROUP DURING THESE TIMES. MVFR CIGS
ARE EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING AT EACH SITE DUE
TO SUBSIDENCE INVERSION LOCKING IN POST FRONTAL STRATO CU. VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AFTER 14/15Z WITH DRY LL FEED ASSOCIATED
WITH ANTICYCLONE BUILDING SOUTHEAST INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 339 PM EDT WED JUL 2 2008/

SHORT-TERM...
SCT SHOWERS/STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS EASTERN IA/NORTHERN MO/WC
IL IN ADV OF CONVECTIVELY INDUCED SHRTWV/MCV OVER EASTERN IA.
ALSO...A MORE ORGANIZED LINE OF CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED ALONG A
STRONG COLD FRONT OVER SRN WI AND CENTRAL MI IN ADVANCE OF A
POTENT UPPER TROUGH THAT IS IN THE PROCESS OF DIVING INTO THE
NORTHERN GREAT LAKES FROM WESTERN ONTARIO. THE ATMOSPHERE HAS
BECOME UNSTABLE ENOUGH THIS AFTN TO ALLOW FOR DEEP CONVECTION...BUT
WEAK CAPPING INVERSION NEAR 8KFT MAY LIMIT CONVECTION
THROUGH AT LEAST 22Z OR SO. ENOUGH WAA WITH PASSAGE OF THETA-E
RIDGE AND COOLING ALOFT HAS YIELDED MLCAPE VALUES AOA 2000 J/KG
JUST TO THE WEST PER 19Z SPC MESOANALYSIS. AS FOR SHEAR...MARGINAL
25-35KT FLOW IN THE LOWER TROPOSPHERE SOUTH AND EAST OF MCV MAY
AFFECT WESTERN AREAS NEAR 00Z...AS 50KT PLUS MID LEVEL JET MAXIMA
BENEATH UPPER TROUGH STAYS WELL NORTH ALONG WITH H5 COLD POOL.
WITH MARGINAL SHEAR AND DECENT INSTABILITY THINK SPC SLIGHT RISK
STILL WARRANTED THROUGH THIS EVENING...WITH DAMAGING WINDS BEING
THE MAIN THREAT. ATTN WILL THEN TURN TO A POSSIBLE LINE OF
SHOWERS/STORMS ALONG THE AFOREMENTIONED CDFNT THAT WILL BE NEAR
OUR FAR NW FA BY 06Z...AND INTO OUR FAR SOUTH BY 12Z THURSDAY. NOT
EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF SVR WX AGAIN OVERNIGHT WITH
TALL/SKINNY CAPE AND MARGINAL SHEAR STILL IN PLACE. THINK LIKELY
POPS FOR SHOWERS/STORMS IS THE WAY TO GO FOR TONIGHT GIVING THE
FACT THAT PLENTY OF MOISTURE WILL BE IN PLACE FOR STRONG FORCING
ASSOCIATED WITH IMPRESSIVE COLD FRONT FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

PRECIP MAY LINGER THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS ON THURSDAY IN THE FAR
SOUTH AS THE CDFNT WILL SINK FARTHER SOUTH TOWARDS THE INTERSTATE 70
CORRIDOR. POST-FRONTAL STRATO CU WITH SUBSIDENCE INVERSION MAY KEEP
LOW CLOUDS AROUND FOR MUCH OF THE DAY...ALTHOUGH DRIER NE LL FEED IN
RESPONSE TO UPPER MIDWEST ANTICYCLONE MAY ALLOW NRN AREAS TO SEE
SOME SUN BY THE AFTERNOON. MUCH COOLER TOMORROW WITH HIGHS ONLY IN
THE LOW TO MID 70S.

FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL HAVE STALLED OUT OVER CENTRAL IN BY THURSDAY
NIGHT. A PAC NW SHRTWV WILL TRACK ESE TOWARDS THE MS VALLEY DURING
THIS TIME WITH SOME THETA-E ADV OUT AHEAD OF IT. THIS SHOULD RESULT
IN SOME OVERRUNNING/ISENTROPIC ASCENT WITH THE BULK OF THE SHOWER/
STORM ACTIVITY LIKELY HOLDING OFF TO THE SOUTH CLOSER TO BETTER LL
FORCING. DECIDED TO CONTINUE WITH LOW CHC POPS SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 30
WITH THE FRONT NEARBY.

LONG TERM

CURRENT FORECAST ON TRACK WITH MODELS INDICATING FRONTAL BOUNDARY
STALLING SOUTH OF CWA ON FRIDAY.  NAM IS LESS IMPRESSIVE WITH IMPACT
OF WAVE SHIFTING ALONG FRONT WHILE GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS IN BETTER
AGREEMENT WITH A MEAN KEEPING SIGNIFICANT WEATHER TO OUR SOUTH.
PVS PACKAGE TRIMMED POPS FURTHER SOUTH ALREADY AND AM IN AGREEMENT
WITH TREND AND PLACEMENT.

GFS CONTINUES TO ADVERTISE CLOSED LOW OVER OHIO VALLEY SAT/SUN WHILE
ECMWF HAS TRENDED TO FURTHER EAST.  SIDING WITH THE EC AS THIS IS
NOT A TYPICAL MID SUMMER FEATURE AND GFS IS MUCH MORE AGGRESSIVE
WITH FORMATION OF TROF/CLOSED LOW.

MODELS INDICATING SFC FRONT MONDAY NIGHT TUESDAY WITH DIVERGING
OPINIONS ON LARGE SCALE FLOW THEREAFTER...WITH ECMWF TRYING TO
DEVELOP A MORE SUMMER LIKE PATTERN WITH ELONGATED HIGH OVER EASTERN
US...WHILE GFS RETURNS TO THE PERSISTENT RIDGE WEST/TROF EAST THAT
HAS BEEN PREVALENT.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 8 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR LMZ043-
     046.

&&

SHORT TERM...STEINWEDEL
LONG TERM...LUDINGTON
AVIATION...STEINWEDEL

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
436 PM EDT WED JUL 2 2008

INZ004>009-012>018-020-022>027-032>034-MIZ078>081-OHZ001-002-004-005-
015-016-024-025-032045-
ST. JOSEPH IN-ELKHART-LAGRANGE-STEUBEN-NOBLE-DE KALB-STARKE-PULASKI-
MARSHALL-FULTON IN-KOSCIUSKO-WHITLEY-ALLEN IN-WHITE-CASS IN-MIAMI-
WABASH-HUNTINGTON-WELLS-ADAMS-GRANT-BLACKFORD-JAY-CASS MI-
ST. JOSEPH MI-BRANCH-HILLSDALE-WILLIAMS-FULTON OH-DEFIANCE-HENRY-
PAULDING-PUTNAM-VAN WERT-ALLEN OH-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...SOUTH BEND...MISHAWAKA...ELKHART...
GOSHEN...LAGRANGE...TOPEKA...ANGOLA...KENDALLVILLE...LIGONIER...
AUBURN...GARRETT...KNOX...NORTH JUDSON...WINAMAC...FRANCESVILLE...
PLYMOUTH...BREMEN...ROCHESTER...WARSAW...WINONA LAKE...
COLUMBIA CITY...SOUTH WHITLEY...FORT WAYNE...MONTICELLO...
BROOKSTON...LOGANSPORT...PERU...WABASH...NORTH MANCHESTER...
HUNTINGTON...BLUFFTON...OSSIAN...DECATUR...BERNE...MARION...
HARTFORD CITY...MONTPELIER...PORTLAND...DOWAGIAC...CASSOPOLIS...
STURGIS...THREE RIVERS...COLDWATER...HILLSDALE...BRYAN...WAUSEON...
ARCHBOLD...DEFIANCE...NAPOLEON...PAULDING...ANTWERP...OTTAWA...
PANDORA...VAN WERT...DELPHOS...LIMA
436 PM EDT WED JUL 2 2008 /336 PM CDT WED JUL 2 2008/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST OHIO...
NORTHERN INDIANA AND SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. SOME
OF THE STORMS COULD BE SEVERE WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL...
ESPECIALLY ACROSS AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF ROUTE 6.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...MAINLY
OVER SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT
EXPECTED. THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE AREA AGAIN NEXT
MONDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS
EVENING.

&&

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO FOR FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES...OR
CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT WEATHER.GOV/IWX

INZ003-LMZ043-046-MIZ077-032045-
LA PORTE-NEW BUFFALO MI TO ST JOSEPH MI-
MICHIGAN CITY IN TO NEW BUFFALO MI-BERRIEN-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...MICHIGAN CITY...LA PORTE...NILES...
BENTON HARBOR...ST. JOSEPH...BUCHANAN
436 PM EDT WED JUL 2 2008 /336 PM CDT WED JUL 2 2008/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN INDIANA...
SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN AND EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN LAKE MICHIGAN.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY THIS EVENING. SOME OF THE STORMS COULD
BE SEVERE WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. THERE IS THE RISK
FOR RIP CURRENTS AND SIECHES THROUGH MIDNIGHT WITH ANY
THUNDERSTORMS THAT MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

THERE IS AN INCREASED RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE LAKE
MICHIGAN SHORELINE ON THURSDAY. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN
ISSUED FOR THURSDAY. THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN
NEXT MONDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS
EVENING.

&&

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO FOR FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES...OR
CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT WEATHER.GOV/IWX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
826 PM EDT WED JUL 02 2008

..TIME..    ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0824 PM     HAIL             SIMONTON LAKE           41.75N  85.97W
07/02/2008  E0.70 INCH       ELKHART            IN   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

EVENT NUMBER 01689

BJS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
832 PM EDT WED JUL 02 2008

..TIME..    ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0831 PM     HAIL             MISHAWAKA               41.67N  86.17W
07/02/2008  E0.75 INCH       ST. JOSEPH         IN   TRAINED SPOTTER

            43 MPH WIND ALSO

&&

EVENT NUMBER 01690

BJS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
833 PM EDT WED JUL 02 2008

..TIME..    ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0832 PM     HAIL             1 S SIMONTON LAKE       41.73N  85.97W
07/02/2008  E0.70 INCH       ELKHART            IN   TRAINED SPOTTER

            NUMEROUS BROWNOUTS.

&&

EVENT NUMBER 01691

LEWIS

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