Severe Thunderstorm Warning 119, NWS Northern Indiana

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
407 PM EDT WED JUN 25 2008

.SHORT TERM...
TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.

...ISOLATED SVR THREAT FOR NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS...

ZONES DELAYED DUE TO WARNING OPERATIONS...SHOULD BE OUT NOW.

COMPLICATED FORECAST REMAINS WITH NEAR TERM CONCERNS AS MCV TRACKS
ACROSS THE AREA IN THE WAKE OF THE MORNING CONVECTION. THEN
ATTENTION TURNS TO ANTICIPATED DEVELOPMENT FURTHER WEST TONIGHT.

NEAR TERM...
LLJ HAS BEGUN TO CALM DOWN SOMEWHAT BUT STILL NOT BAD AROUND 30
KTS PER WOLCOTT PROFILER. THIS ALONG WITH THE MCV ARE CONTINUING
TO HOLD TOGETHER AN AREA OF SHOWERS THAT WILL TRACK ACROSS MAINLY
THE SOUTHERN CWA THROUGH 00Z. ISOLATED SUPERCELL HAS RAPIDLY
DEVELOPED IN PAST HOUR AND IS MOVING FROM FULTON COUNTY INTO
KOSCIUSKO COUNTY. THIS CELL IS IN BEST AREA WITH INCREASED LL
SHEAR AND INFLOW OF MODERATE INSTABILITY FROM THE SOUTH. FOR NOW
AFTER COORDINATION WITH SPC...WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY WATCH DUE TO
ISOLATED NATURE OF THIS CELL AND NO SIGNS OF ANYTHING ELSE
DEVELOPING. IF TRENDS CHANGE THAN A SMALL WATCH MAY BE CONSIDERED
UPSTREAM OF THE CONVECTION. FOR NOW HAVE WENT WITH PRE 1ST PERIOD
OF LIKELY SHOWERS...CHC THUNDER AS OVERALL AREA AS CONTINUED TO
BREAK UP SOMEWHAT. WILL MONITOR TRENDS FOR FURTHER UPDATES. ONCE
THE MCV DEPARTS THINGS SHOULD QUIET DOWN THE REMAINDER OF THE
EVENING.

LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT... ANOTHER FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN ACTIVE NORTHERN
STREAM NEAR CANADA/US BORDER WILL TRACK ESE THROUGH SOUTHERN
ONTARIO AND EVENTUALLY INTO SOUTHWEST QUEBEC BY THURSDAY AFTN/EVE.
THIS WILL DRAW A WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY SOUTHWARD INTO THE
UPPER MIDWEST BY LATE TONIGHT AND INTO THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES BY
THURSDAY AFTN/EVE. ANOTHER MCS WILL LIKELY IGNITE OUT NEAR IA
AGAIN TONIGHT AS THE AFOREMENTIONED SFC FRONT INTERACTS WITH AN
INTENSIFYING LL JET. WILL NEED TO MONITOR THIS AS IT COULD IMPACT
WESTERN AREAS LATE TONIGHT AND INTO THURSDAY MORNING AS IT
TRANSLATES EASTWARD IN PERSISTENT WNW FLOW. THIS FEATURE SHOULD
FALL APART AS IT APPROACHES...ALTHOUGH CHC POPS STILL WARRANTED
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT INTO THU MORNING ACROSS THE ENTIRE FA DUE TO
STEEPENING MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES/ELEVATED INSTABILITY AND RICH LL
THETA-E AIR. SCT SHOWERS/STORMS A GOOD BET THU AFTN/EVE WITH SFC
DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S COMBINED WITH STEEPENING MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES TO YIELD MLCAPE VALUES NEAR OR ABOVE 3K J/KG PER BUFR
SOUNDINGS. ALSO EXPECT DECENT FORCING FROM SFC BOUNDARY IN THE
NORTH AND 5H JET MAXIMA PROPAGATING SE THROUGH NORTHERN WI AND
CENTRAL LOWER MI. SLIGHT RISK FOR SVR FROM SPC SEEMS REASONABLE
WITH MARGINALLY ORGANIZED MULTICELLS THE PRIMARY
CONCERN...ALTHOUGH POSSIBLE SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION IN THE NORTH CLOSER TO DEEP LAYER SHEAR AOA 30KTS IN MI.
KEPT THU/THU NIGHT POPS IN THE CHC CATEGORY AS THE LIMITING FACTOR
TO SHOWER/STORM DEVELOPMENT WILL ONCE AGAIN BE THE POSSIBLE
CONVECTIVE CLOUD DEBRIS FROM THE EXPECTED MORNING MCS WHICH WOULD
LIMIT DESTABILIZATION/HEATING. AS FOR TEMPERATURES...DID NOT MAKE
ANY CHANGES ALTHOUGH COULD SEE COOLER HIGHS NEAR 80 ON THURSDAY
DEPENDING ON LINGERING CLOUD COVER.

&&

.LONG TERM...

YET MORE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE LONG TERM WITH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
LOOKING LIKE POTENTIALLY BUSY AFTERNOONS.  STRONG H5 COLD POOL/TROF
SAGGING SOUTH OVER GREAT LAKES WITH ASSOCIATED SFC FRONT DROPPING
ACROSS MIDWEST.  FRONTAL PASSAGE INDICATED SATURDAY AFTERNOON BY NAM
WITH GFS SLIGHTLY SLOWER.  AT ANY RATE...BOTH AFTERNOONS SPORTING AN
UNSTABLE MOIST AIRMASS IN PLACE AT SFC WITH INCREASING UPPER LEVEL
WINDS/CAA AS TROF DIGS SOUTHEASTERLY. AS HAS BEEN THE
CASE...WILDCARD IS IMPACT OF ANY MCS DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT SPREADING
DEBRIS/PCPN OVER CWA HELPING LIMIT DAYTIME DESTABILIZATION.  IN
ABSENCE OF INHIBITING FACTORS...CONVECTION LIKELY FRIDAY AFTERNOON
AND AGAIN SATURDAY AHEAD OF SFC BNDRY WITH EXACT TIMING OF SAT
FRONTAL PASSAGE ANOTHER SIGINFICANT FACTOR TO WATCH FOR POTENTIAL OF
STORNG STORMS DEVELOPING.

SUNDAY...COLD POOL ALOFT OVER GREAT LAKES CONTINUES UNSTABLE
CONDITIONS WITH AFTERNOON STORMS POSSIBLE.  UPPER LOW SCOOTS
AWAY FOR TUES-WED WITH SFC HIGH TRACKING EAST OVER REGION...UPPER
LVL FLOW FLATTENING WITH RIDGE REBUILDING OVER SW CONUS.  HOPEFULLY
PROVIDING OF A BREIF RESPITE FROM STORMS WITH RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW
REMAINING JUST TO THE WEST THROUGH THE PERIOD.

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 154 PM EDT WED JUN 25 2008/

UPDATE/AVIATION...
GRIDS/ZONES...WILL LET SCT POPS RIDE FOR THE TIME BEING FOR THE
AFTERNOON. AREA OF SHOWERS IS WORKING EAST WHICH WILL AFFECT
MAINLY SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. BIG QUESTIONS
REMAINS IF THE ATMOSPHERE CAN RECOVER SUFFICIENTLY AND FAST ENOUGH
TO ALLOW FOR ADDITIONAL STORMS TO DEVELOP IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE
APPROACHING MCV. IR SAT SHOWING GENERALLY WARMING CLOUD TOPS AND
NO REAL SIGNS OF ANYTHING TO KEY IN ON. POCKETS OF CLEARING JUST
HEAD OF THE MCV HAVE ALLOWED A FEW AREAS TO CLIMB BACK TOWARDS 80.
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS BUT NO FURTHER UPDATES ANTICIPATED
ATTM PRIOR TO AFTERNOON PACKAGE ISSUANCE.

AVIATION WISE...FIRST BATCH OF PRECIP HAS CLEARED BOTH SITES
LEAVING BEHIND VFR CONDITIONS AGAIN. HAVE WENT RATHER CONSERVATIVE
AT BOTH SITES THROUGH 00Z WITH MORE OF A VCSH MENTION. PROXIMITY
OF INITIAL PRECIP TO KSBN DID APPEAR TO WARRANT A BRIEF TEMPO
GROUP. TONIGHT MORE THAN LIKELY WILL BE DRY FOR MUCH OF THE AREA
UNTIL TOWARDS MORNING WITH NEXT MCS MOVING IN. WILL KEEP HIGH AND
DRY FOR NOW.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...FISHER/STEINWEDEL
LONG TERM...LUDINGTON
AVAITION...FISHER

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
549 AM EDT WED JUN 25 2008

INZ003>009-012>018-020-022>027-032>034-MIZ077>081-OHZ001-002-004-005-
015-016-024-025-261000-
LA PORTE-ST. JOSEPH IN-ELKHART-LAGRANGE-STEUBEN-NOBLE-DE KALB-STARKE-
PULASKI-MARSHALL-FULTON IN-KOSCIUSKO-WHITLEY-ALLEN IN-WHITE-CASS IN-
MIAMI-WABASH-HUNTINGTON-WELLS-ADAMS-GRANT-BLACKFORD-JAY-BERRIEN-
CASS MI-ST. JOSEPH MI-BRANCH-HILLSDALE-WILLIAMS-FULTON OH-DEFIANCE-
HENRY-PAULDING-PUTNAM-VAN WERT-ALLEN OH-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...MICHIGAN CITY...LA PORTE...SOUTH BEND...
MISHAWAKA...ELKHART...GOSHEN...LAGRANGE...TOPEKA...ANGOLA...
KENDALLVILLE...LIGONIER...AUBURN...GARRETT...KNOX...NORTH JUDSON...
WINAMAC...FRANCESVILLE...PLYMOUTH...BREMEN...ROCHESTER...WARSAW...
WINONA LAKE...COLUMBIA CITY...SOUTH WHITLEY...FORT WAYNE...
MONTICELLO...BROOKSTON...LOGANSPORT...PERU...WABASH...
NORTH MANCHESTER...HUNTINGTON...BLUFFTON...OSSIAN...DECATUR...
BERNE...MARION...HARTFORD CITY...MONTPELIER...PORTLAND...NILES...
BENTON HARBOR...ST. JOSEPH...BUCHANAN...DOWAGIAC...CASSOPOLIS...
STURGIS...THREE RIVERS...COLDWATER...HILLSDALE...BRYAN...WAUSEON...
ARCHBOLD...DEFIANCE...NAPOLEON...PAULDING...ANTWERP...OTTAWA...
PANDORA...VAN WERT...DELPHOS...LIMA
549 AM EDT WED JUN 25 2008 /449 AM CDT WED JUN 25 2008/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST OHIO...
SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN AND NORTHERN INDIANA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TONIGHT WITH A SLIM
CHANCE OF AN ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THIS AFTERNOON SOUTHEAST
OF A LINE FROM HILLSDALE TO PERU.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD WITH SEVERE
STORMS POSSIBLE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY NOT BE NEEDED TODAY OR TONIGHT.

&&

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO FOR FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES...OR
CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT WEATHER.GOV/IWX

LMZ043-046-261000-
NEW BUFFALO MI TO ST JOSEPH MI-MICHIGAN CITY IN TO NEW BUFFALO MI-
549 AM EDT WED JUN 25 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN LAKE
MICHIGAN.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD WITH SEVERE
STORMS POSSIBLE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO FOR FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES...OR
CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT WEATHER.GOV/IWX/PROGRAMAREAS/MARINE/INDEX.PHP

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
531 PM EDT WED JUN 25 2008

OHZ016-024-025-252200-
ALLEN-PUTNAM-VAN WERT-
531 PM EDT WED JUN 25 2008

...SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT...

AT 530 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR OHIO CITY...OR 9 MILES SOUTHWEST OF VAN
WERT...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH.

PEA SIZE HAIL...WINDS GREATER THAN 40 MPH...ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
STORM.

LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE...
  VAN WERT...
  DELPHOS...
  JONESTOWN...VENEDOCIA AND ELGIN...
  MIDDLE POINT AND SOUTHWORTH...
  OTTOVILLE...FORT JENNINGS AND WETSEL...
  RUSHMORE...

GUSTY WINDS MAY CAUSE SMALL OBJECTS SUCH AS TRASH BINS TO BLOW
AROUND.

SEEK SHELTER IN A STURDY STRUCTURE UNTIL THIS STORM HAS PASSED.

LUD

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