River Flood Warning 96, NWS Northern Indiana

000 
WGUS83 KIWX 040253
FLSIWX
 
FLOOD STATEMENT 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA 
1053 PM EDT TUE JUN 03 2008

...THE FLOOD WARNING IS CANCELLED FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVERS...
 
  EEL RIVER AT NORTH MANCHESTER AFFECTING CASS...MIAMI AND WABASH 
  COUNTIES
  SAINT MARYS RIVER NEAR DECATUR AFFECTING ADAMS...ALLEN AND VAN WERT 
  COUNTIES
 
THIS WILL BE THE LAST STATEMENT FOR THIS HIGH WATER EVENT.

INC017-103-169-040323-
/O.CAN.KIWX.FL.W.0096.000000T0000Z-080606T1500Z/
/NMCI3.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
1053 PM EDT TUE JUN 03 2008

THE FLOOD WARNING IS CANCELLED FOR
  THE EEL RIVER AT NORTH MANCHESTER
* AT 9 PM TUESDAY THE STAGE WAS 5.6 FEET
* FLOOD STAGE IS 9.0 FEET.
* FORECAST...THE RIVER CRESTED BELOW FLOOD STAGE AT 5.7 FEET TUESDAY 
  AFTERNOON.  THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE FALLING.


$$

INC001-003-OHC161-040323-
/O.CAN.KIWX.FL.W.0097.000000T0000Z-080605T2100Z/
/DCRI3.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
1053 PM EDT TUE JUN 03 2008

THE FLOOD WARNING IS CANCELLED FOR
  THE SAINT MARYS RIVER NEAR DECATUR
* AT 8 PM TUESDAY THE STAGE WAS 7.3 FEET
* FLOOD STAGE IS 17.0 FEET.
* FORECAST...THE RIVER CRESTED BELOW FLOOD STAGE AT 7.2 FEET TUESDAY 
  AFTERNOON.  THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE FALLING.


$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
1151 AM EDT TUE JUN 3 2008

.UPDATE...
ROBUST MCV ACRS WRN IL WILL CONT EWD THIS AFTN FORCING ADDNL
DOWNSTREAM CONVN WITHIN WARM ADVECTION WING AS SEEN IN WLC/WNC
PROFILERS. HWVR LEAD MCV/MCS CLUSTER ACRS SRN IN HAMPERING ANY
APPRECIABLE SFC BASED DESTABILIZATION AND THUS XPC MINIMAL CHCS FOR
ANYTHING SVR THIS AFTN/EVE. OF SOMEWHAT GREATER CONCERN IS HEAVY
RAIN POTENTIAL ESP ALONG/SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 30 ESP WITH W-E ORIENTED
CONVECTIVE BAND SEE ACRS NRN IL WHICH SHLD CONT ESEWD THIS AFTN.
OTHER CONCERN IS SIG WAKE DEPRESSION OVR ERN IA AND STG EASTERLY FLW
ALG BACK EDGE OF STRATIFORM RAIN SHIELD. WILL WATCH CLOSELY FOR
POTENTIAL SHRT DURATION NON-CONVECTIVE HIGH WIND EVENT PENDING
EVOLUTION ACRS NRN IL.

&&

.AVIATION...
STALLED CDFNT EXTENDING FROM JUST NORTH OF IKK TO JUST SOUTH OF
FWA THIS MORNING. AREA OF SHOWERS/TSTMS NORTH OF THIS BOUNDARY HAS
LIFTED NORTH OF THE TERMINALS ATTM. MORE SHOWERS COULD DVLP
FARTHER SOUTH CLOSER TO THE BOUNDARY THIS MORNING BUT ATTM FELT
ODDS OF THAT HAPPENING WERE LOW. ANOTHER LARGE AREA OF TSTMS OVER
CENTRAL IL/IN FORMED NORTH OF WARM FRONT LOCATED FROM NRN MO-SRN
IN... HAS BEEN MOVG EAST AND SHOULD STAY SOUTH OF TERMINALS.
ANOTHER LARGE AREA OF STORMS OVER IA MOVG ESE/40KT. WARM FRONT
EXPECTED TO LIFT SLOWLY NORTH TODAY PROVIDING FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT TO MAINTAIN THE IA COMPLEX ALLOWING IT TO MOVE THROUGH
NRN INDIANA THIS AFTN/EVE. WITH WARM FRONT EXPECTED TO BE IN THE
VCNTY TONIGHT...EXPECT CIGS TO LOWER TO MVFR AT FWA AND IFR AT SBN
WITH A CONTINUATION OF RAIN AND MOISTENING OF LOW LEVELS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 445 AM EDT TUE JUN 3 2008/

SHORT TERM...
TODAY THROUGH WED NGT...
WK CDFNT WHICH MOVED INTO THE AREA YDAY AFTN AND OVERNIGHT WILL
BECOME STNRY TODAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES EAST FROM KS. MCS OVER SRN
IA AND CENTRAL IL ALONG WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW SEEMS TO
BE HAVING LITTLE IMPACT ON MOISTURE RETURN INTO OUR AREA AS VWP AT
CLE...IWX...LOT STILL SHOWING SWLY WINDS AT H85 OVERRUNNING THE
STALLED BOUNDARY IN OUR AREA. AS LOW MOVES EAST TODAY INFLOW INTO
STALLED FRONT SHOULD STRENGTHEN...ENHANCING OVERRUNNING. WK SHRTWV
MOVG INTO CENTRAL HI PLAINS THIS MORNING WILL MOVE RAPIDLY EAST
IN ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE MID MS VALLEY THIS AFTN...FURTHER
ENHANCING POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION. CONVERGENCE ALONG STNRY FRONT
SHOULD ALSO PROVIDE SOME LIFT PROMOTING CONVECTION. MOISTURE
TRANSPORT IN SWLY FLOW ALOFT FORECAST TO INCREASE PRECIP WATER INTO
THE 1.5-2 RANGE TODAY. THIS COMBINED WITH POTENTIAL FOR TRAINING
ECHOES ALONG AND NORTH OF STNRY BOUNDARY SUGGEST MENTION OF HEAVY
RAINFALL STILL WARRANTED IN GRIDS. ALSO ADDED RISK OF SVR WX THIS
AFTN AS DIURNAL HEATING/DESTABILIZATION COMBINED WITH STRONG
DIRECTIONAL AND SPEED SHEAR...ESPECIALLY IN CLOSEST PROXIMITY TO
STNRY FRONT OVER SRN PORTION OF CWA... SHOULD RESULT IN SOME
STRONGER UPDRAFTS...HAIL STORMS...AND POSSIBLY SUPERCELLS.

FRONT SHOULD REMAIN STNRY OVER THE AREA TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH
STRONGEST CONVERGENCE WILL SHIFT EAST INTO THE UPR OH VALLEY/LWR
GRTLKS REGION OVERNIGHT. STILL... WITH BOUNDARY REMAINING IN THE
AREA AND MOIST/UNSTABLE AIRMASS ALONG AND SOUTH OF IT AND WK SHRTWVS
MOVG ACROSS THE AREA IN ZONAL FLOW... GOOD POTENTIAL FOR MORE TSTMS
REMAINS. CONTD THREAT OF SVR STORMS INTO THE LATE EVE UNTIL SOME
DIURNAL STABILIZATION AND DECREASING FORCING LIKELY TO OCCUR.

ON WED SFC LOW OVER CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS WILL STRENGTHEN IN RESPONSE
TO DEEPENING UPR TROF MOVG INTO THE WRN U.S.. THIS WILL RESULT IN
INCREASING/BACKING WINDS AGAIN SW OF STNRY BOUNDARY IN OUR AREA
ENHANCING TSTMS CHANCES. ONE NEGATIVE TO STORM DEVELOPMENT HWVR IS
UPR RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD OVER ERN U.S. IN RESPONSE TO
DEEPENING WRN TROF. THIS SHOULD LIMIT INSTABILITY AS LAPSE RATES
DECREASE A BIT.

WED NGT THE WRN UPR TROF WILL PUSH EAST CAUSING ASSOCIATED SFC LOW
AND FRONT TO LIFT NE. THIS MAY KICK OFF SOME TSTMS IN OUR AREA BUT
DECREASING CHANCES FROM S-N OVERNIGHT AS CAPPED WARM SECTOR
OVERSPREADS THE CWA.

TEMPS WILL BE HELD DOWN TODAY COMPARED TO YDAY DUE TO ELY
FLOW...CLOUD COVER AND SHOWERS. WITH RIDGING ALOFT DVLPG ON WED AND
PRBLY LESS COVERAGE OF TSTMS TEMPS SHOULD BE A LITTLE WARMER...BACK
INTO THE U60S-L70S WITH INCRSG SLY FLOW IN WARM SECTOR WED NGT
KEEPING TEMPS FM FALLING BLO M-U60S.

LONG TERM...
THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...OVERALL...THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL
NOT CHANGE MUCH AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL BE QUASISTATIONARY OVER
THE WEST CONUS AND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE TO THE EAST. FOR
THIS PACKAGE...WILL CONTINUE WITH THE ECMWF AS THE MODEL OF CHOICE
GIVEN HANDLING OF THIS PATTERN THE LAST FEW DAYS. WITH THE TROF
WEST/RIDGE EAST SET UP...VERY WARM CONDITIONS WILL BE AT HAND
THURSDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS NORTH OF THE OHIO RIVER IN
RESPONSE TO THE UPPER TROF DIGGING UPSTREAM. THE MID LEVEL CAP WILL
STRENGTHEN THURSDAY AS SUBSIDENCE INCREASES...SO ANY STORM COVERAGE
WILL BE VERY LIMITED. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE CLOSE TO 90F
THURSDAY...AND AGAIN ON FRIDAY GIVEN VERY WARM 850 MB TEMPS OF 22C
PER ECMWF. CORRESPONDING HEAT INDICES SHOULD BE IN THE MID 90S...NOT
ENOUGH FOR A HEAT ADVISORY...BUT ENOUGH TO MENTION IN THE HWO GIVEN
THE FIRST VERY WARM EVENT OF THE SEASON.  CONCERN PERSISTS FOR
SEVERE WEATHER CHANCES LATE FRIDAY AND FRIDAY EVENING AS A LARGE
PIECE OF ENERGY EJECTS NORTHEAST OUT OF THE MAIN UPPER TROF AND
TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES REGION. DIURNAL TIMING LOOKS FAVORABLE FOR
SEVERE WEATHER...ALONG WITH SUFFICIENT UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT AND
ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. AFTER FRIDAY NIGHT...THERE SHOULD BE A
BREAK IN STORM ACTIVITY AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS BACK INTO
THE AREA AND TEMPERATURES REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 140 AM EDT TUE JUN 3 2008/

AVIATION...
WK CDFNT WHICH MOVED INTO NRN INDIANA WAS BECOMING PARALLEL TO MID
LEVEL FLOW AND WILL BECOME BECOME NRNLY STNRY FM W-E ACROSS THE
AREA TODAY. MOIST/UNSTABLE AIRMASS OVER-RUNNING THE FRONT ALONG WITH
CONVERGENCE IN ITS VCNTY WILL RESULT IN CONVECTION CONTINUING TO
AFFECT THE TERMINALS THROUGH THE PD. DIFFICULT TO PIN DOWN TIMING
OF TSTMS IN THIS SITUATION...SO ONLY MENTIONED TSRA EARLY IN THE PD
WITH VCTS/CB THEREAFTER. LOW LEVELS WILL BE SLOW TO SATURATE...BUT
SHOULD SEE CIGS LOWERING TO MVFR OR IFR IN THE AREA BY TONIGHT AS
FRONT AND PRECIP LINGER IN THE AREA.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

UPDATE...HOLSTEN
SHORT TERM...TAYLOR
LONG TERM...SKIPPER
AVIATION...TAYLOR

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
1131 AM EDT TUE JUN 3 2008

INZ003>009-012>018-MIZ077>081-OHZ001-002-004-005-015-016-024-025-
041545-
LA PORTE-ST. JOSEPH IN-ELKHART-LAGRANGE-STEUBEN-NOBLE-DE KALB-STARKE-
PULASKI-MARSHALL-FULTON IN-KOSCIUSKO-WHITLEY-ALLEN IN-BERRIEN-
CASS MI-ST. JOSEPH MI-BRANCH-HILLSDALE-WILLIAMS-FULTON OH-DEFIANCE-
HENRY-PAULDING-PUTNAM-VAN WERT-ALLEN OH-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...MICHIGAN CITY...LA PORTE...SOUTH BEND...
MISHAWAKA...ELKHART...GOSHEN...LAGRANGE...TOPEKA...ANGOLA...
KENDALLVILLE...LIGONIER...AUBURN...GARRETT...KNOX...NORTH JUDSON...
WINAMAC...FRANCESVILLE...PLYMOUTH...BREMEN...ROCHESTER...WARSAW...
WINONA LAKE...COLUMBIA CITY...SOUTH WHITLEY...FORT WAYNE...NILES...
BENTON HARBOR...ST. JOSEPH...BUCHANAN...DOWAGIAC...CASSOPOLIS...
STURGIS...THREE RIVERS...COLDWATER...HILLSDALE...BRYAN...
MONTPELIER...WAUSEON...ARCHBOLD...DEFIANCE...NAPOLEON...PAULDING...
ANTWERP...OTTAWA...PANDORA...VAN WERT...DELPHOS...LIMA
1131 AM EDT TUE JUN 3 2008 /1031 AM CDT TUE JUN 3 2008/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST OHIO...
SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN AND NORTHERN INDIANA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND AGAIN LATE TONIGHT.
SOME OF THE STORMS MAY CONTAIN HEAVY RAIN...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND
SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 30 WITH AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING LARGE HAIL POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY AND FRIDAY.
SOME OF THESE STORMS MAY BE SEVERE.

THE FIRST HOT AND HUMID DAY OF THE SUMMER IS EXPECTED ON THURSDAY
WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 90S ACROSS THE AREA.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED THIS AFTERNOON OR TONIGHT.

&&

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO FOR FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES...OR
CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT WEATHER.GOV/IWX

INZ020-022>027-032>034-041545-
WHITE-CASS IN-MIAMI-WABASH-HUNTINGTON-WELLS-ADAMS-GRANT-BLACKFORD-
JAY-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...MONTICELLO...BROOKSTON...LOGANSPORT...
PERU...WABASH...NORTH MANCHESTER...HUNTINGTON...BLUFFTON...OSSIAN...
DECATUR...BERNE...MARION...HARTFORD CITY...MONTPELIER...PORTLAND
1131 AM EDT TUE JUN 3 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN INDIANA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND AGAIN LATE TONIGHT.
A FEW OF THESE STORMS MAY BE SEVERE LATE THIS AFTERNOON WITH
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS POSSIBLE BUT A MUCH GREATER THREAT
FOR HEAVY RAIN EXISTS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE HIGHWAY 24 CORRIDOR
WHICH MAY LEAD TO SOME MINOR FLOODING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY AND FRIDAY.
SOME OF THESE STORMS MAY BE SEVERE.

THE FIRST HOT AND HUMID DAY OF THE SUMMER IS EXPECTED ON THURSDAY
WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 90S ACROSS THE AREA.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS UNLIKELY THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

&&

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO FOR FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES...OR
CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT WEATHER.GOV/IWX

LMZ043-046-041545-
NEW BUFFALO MI TO ST JOSEPH MI-MICHIGAN CITY IN TO NEW BUFFALO MI-
1131 AM EDT TUE JUN 3 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN LAKE
MICHIGAN.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND AGAIN
LATE TONIGHT. NO SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY AND FRIDAY.
THE STORMS MAY CONTAIN LARGE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS OVER 50 KNOTS.

&&

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO FOR FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES...OR
CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT WEATHER.GOV/IWX