River Flood Warning 84, NWS Northern Indiana

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
711 AM EDT WED MAR 19 2008

.AVIATION (12Z TAFS)...
TEMPORARY IMPROVEMENT AT KSBN THIS MORNING ALG EDGE OF MID LVL
TROUGH AND SUBSIDENCE ALG PCPN SHIELD EDGE. THIS WILL QUICKLY FILL
IN W/MVFR STRATOCU WHICH EXTENDS WELL WEST INTO ERN IA. IFR CIGS
CONT AT KFWA IN LT-MOD RAIN AND APPEARS THAT WILL CONT THROUGH 14Z
OR SO BFR DIMINISHING AND SLOW IMPROVEMENT TO CIG HGTS ENSUES. W/UPR
TROUGH ACCELERATING EWD INTO THIS AFTN AND BLDG RIDGING SFC AND
ALOFT...EXPECT SKIES TO QUICKLY CLEAR OUT THROUGH THIS EVENING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 412 AM EDT WED MAR 19 2008/

SHORT TERM...
DEEP SRN STREAM SW TROUGH FINALLY EJECTING NEWD. BACKING MID LVL FLW
AND TIGHT LL THERMAL GRADIENT LEADING TO EXPANDING AREA OF LT-MOD
RAIN OVR SERN HALF OF CWA W/HEAVIER FNTL RAIN BAND NOW CLIPPING SE
CORNER OF CWA. TRIMMED FLOOD WATCH FM EARLIER UPDATE MAY NOW
ACTUALLY PAN OUT ALG A MARION...OTTAWA LINE SOUTH AND IN LIGHT OF
SHRT TERM RUC SOLUTION WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH 12Z AS DRIVING
MID LVL BAROCLINIC ZONE WORKS SLOWLY EWD. AFT THAT...HEAVIEST RAIN
WILL SHIFT EWD INTO CNTRL/SRN OH CORRESPONDING TO BEST LL MSTR
TRANSPORT W/ELONGATED MID LVL DEFORMATION ZONE HOLDING SE HALF
THROUGH EARLY AFTN BFR BREAKING DOWN IN ASSOCN/W UPR TROUGH
ACCELERATING EWD. LL CAA MAY STILL LEAD TO A MIX OF SNOW ON TAIL END
OF PRECIP BUT W/SKIN TEMPS REMAINING WELL ABV FREEZING
ACCUMULATIONS INSIGNIFICANT. MEANWHILE POST FNTL AIRMASS CONTS TO
DRY NW AND WILL SPREAD SEWD THROUGH THE DAY W/EVENTUAL CLEARING LT
AFTERNOON NW THROUGH EVENING SE AND GIVEN EXTRAPOLATION OF BACK EDGE
TO PCPN SHIELD WILL DROP MENTION ALTOGETHER FAR NW. OTHERWISE WILL
HOLD CLOSE TO GOING TEMPS FOR THE MOST PART GIVEN INTERVENTION HAS
CAUSED MORE HARM THEN GOOD LAST TWO DAYS.

LONG TERM...
NEGATIVE HEIGHT ANOMALY IN THE GULF OF ALASKA THROUGH THE PERIOD
WILL RESULT IN AN ACTIVE PATTERN DOWNSTREAM...WITH ONE DISTURBANCE
POSSIBLY RESULTING IS SOME ACCUMULATING SNOW FRI INTO EARLY SAT AND
ANOTHER SYSTEM BY MON NIGHT/TUE. THIS PATTERN DOES FAVOR OVERALL
UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING IN THE EASTERN US WHICH WILL LIKELY RESULT IN
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

THU NIGHT - SAT AM:
THE MAIN CONCERN CONTINUES TO BE THE PLACEMENT OF BAROCLINIC ZONE
AND THE EVENTUAL TRACK OF A SFC LOW PROGGED TO TRACK ESE ALONG IT
LATE THU NIGHT INTO FRI/FRI EVE. A SHRTWV WILL EJECT INTO THE
CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS AND INDUCE CYCLOGENESIS THU NIGHT NEAR/JUST
SOUTH OF THE OMAHA AREA. THIS RELATIVELY WEAK SFC REFLECTION WILL
THEN TRACK EAST INTO NORTHERN OR CENTRAL IN BY EARLY FRI EVE.
FOLLOWED CLOSE TO PREVIOUS FCST WHICH MATCHED UP WELL WITH THE
FARTHER NORTH 00Z OPERATIONAL GFS...NAM...AND SREF. HOWEVER...THE
LATEST ECMWF AND GEM RUN ARE A LITTLE FARTHER SOUTH WITH BOUNDARY
AND ACCUMULATING SNOW. SYSTEM IN QUESTION IS STILL OFFSHORE SO
EXPECT DETAILS TO BECOME CLEARER WITH BETTER SAMPLING AS SHRTWV
SLIDES INTO THE PAC NW BY WED EVE. TOP DOWN METHOD FROM GFS/NAM
SOUNDINGS AND PROGGED PARTIAL THICKNESSES INDICATE ALL SNOW JUST
NORTH OF THE 850H LOW TRACK AND RAIN SOUTH. AS FOR INITIAL THOUGHTS
ON TIMING...THINK BAND OF PRECIP BREAKS OUT ACROSS E IA...N IL...AND
S WI THU EVE AND TRACKS EAST INTO SRN MI AND POSSIBLY FAR NRN IN BY
LATE THU NIGHT INTO FRI AM. THIS INITIAL BATCH OF PRECIP WILL
DEVELOP IN RESPONSE TO THETA-E ADV WITH LL CONVERGENCE AT NOSE OF
EXPECTED 35-50KT LL JET. ALSO...THE GFS AND NAM ARE REMAINING
CONSISTENT IN SHOWING ROBUST FRONTOGENESIS MAINLY IN THE 850-700H
LAYER WITH POTENTIAL NARROW BAND OF ACCUMULATING SNOW. EVEN IF BAND
ASSOCIATED WITH LL FORCING ENDS UP JUST NORTH OF CWA THU NIGHT/FRI
AM...STILL THINK CWA WILL GET INTO SOME RAIN/SNOW FRI AFTN/EVE WITH
LARGE SCALE ASCENT PROVIDED BY SHRTWV AND ITS ASSOCIATED DEEPER
MOISTURE/OMEGA. AS A RESULT...DECIDED TO CONTINUE WITH LIKELY SN
POPS ALONG/NORTH OF ROUTE 6 06-18Z FRI AND CHC POPS FOR MIX SOUTH.
AND CONTINUED WITH LIKELY POPS FRI AFTN EVERYWHERE FOR RAIN AND SNOW
NORTH...AND ALL RAIN SOUTH. SOME LIGHT SNOW...POSSIBLY MIXED WITH RN
IN THE EVE...WILL CONTINUE FRI NIGHT INTO SAT AM. KEPT WITH CHC POPS
FOR THIS TIMEFRAME WITH SUBSEQUENT SHIFTS PROBABLY NEEDING TO BUMP
POPS INTO LIKELY CATEGORY FOR AT LEAST FRI EVE. FIRST GUESS FOR
TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATION IN THE GRIDS IS 2-4 INCHES ALONG/NORTH OF
ROUTE 6...AROUND AN INCH IN THE CENTRAL CWA...AND AN INCH OR LESS
FAR SOUTH.

SAT-TUE:
SEVERAL WEAK DISTURBANCES IN NORTHWEST FLOW MAY BRING SOME VERY
LIGHT PRECIP INTO THE REGION DURING THE SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY
TIMEFRAME. HOWEVER...WILL KEEP WITH DRY FCST AS TIMING THESE QUICK
MOVING WAVES IS NEARLY IMPOSSIBLE THIS FAR OUT AND THAT ANY SNOW
WILL BE BRIEF/LIGHT DUE TO THERE BEING LITTLE IF ANY MOISTURE TO
WORK WITH. THE ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE SNOW CHCS SAT AM WITH TROUGH
AXIS SWINGING THROUGH. THE ECMWF AND GEM CONTINUE TO HINT AT A
STRONG WAVE ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE TROUGH WITH A POTENTIAL WINTER
STORM AFFECTING THE EASTERN SEABOARD. THIS WILL REINFORCE TROUGH IN
PLACE AND KEEP TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND
INTO THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK. KEPT LOW CHC POPS IN FOR LATE MON
NIGHT INTO TUE AS 00Z GUIDANCE REMAINS CONSISTENT IN DROPPING A
CLIPPER-LIKE SYSTEM INTO THE GREAT LAKES.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR INZ026-027-032>034.

MI...NONE.
OH...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR OHZ016-024-025.

LM...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...HOLSTEN
LONG TERM...STEINWEDEL
AVIATION...HOLSTEN

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
1034 AM EDT WED MAR 19 2008

INZ003>009-012>018-020-022>026-MIZ077>081-OHZ001-002-004-005-015-016-
024-025-201445-
LA PORTE-ST. JOSEPH IN-ELKHART-LAGRANGE-STEUBEN-NOBLE-DE KALB-STARKE-
PULASKI-MARSHALL-FULTON IN-KOSCIUSKO-WHITLEY-ALLEN IN-WHITE-CASS IN-
MIAMI-WABASH-HUNTINGTON-WELLS-BERRIEN-CASS MI-ST. JOSEPH MI-BRANCH-
HILLSDALE-WILLIAMS-FULTON OH-DEFIANCE-HENRY-PAULDING-PUTNAM-VAN WERT-
ALLEN OH-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...MICHIGAN CITY...LA PORTE...SOUTH BEND...
MISHAWAKA...ELKHART...GOSHEN...LAGRANGE...TOPEKA...ANGOLA...
KENDALLVILLE...LIGONIER...AUBURN...GARRETT...KNOX...NORTH JUDSON...
WINAMAC...FRANCESVILLE...PLYMOUTH...BREMEN...ROCHESTER...WARSAW...
WINONA LAKE...COLUMBIA CITY...SOUTH WHITLEY...FORT WAYNE...
MONTICELLO...BROOKSTON...LOGANSPORT...PERU...WABASH...
NORTH MANCHESTER...HUNTINGTON...BLUFFTON...OSSIAN...NILES...
BENTON HARBOR...ST. JOSEPH...BUCHANAN...DOWAGIAC...CASSOPOLIS...
STURGIS...THREE RIVERS...COLDWATER...HILLSDALE...BRYAN...
MONTPELIER...WAUSEON...ARCHBOLD...DEFIANCE...NAPOLEON...PAULDING...
ANTWERP...OTTAWA...PANDORA...VAN WERT...DELPHOS...LIMA
1034 AM EDT WED MAR 19 2008 /934 AM CDT WED MAR 19 2008/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST OHIO...
NORTHERN INDIANA AND SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

FLOODING ON SOME STREAMS AND RIVERS WILL CONTINUE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY EVENING ACROSS SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN...FAR
NORTHERN INDIANA...AND NORTHWEST OHIO. THE BEST CHANCE FOR
ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL BE ALONG AND NORTH OF HIGHWAY 6.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

&&

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO FOR FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES...OR
CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT WEATHER.GOV/IWX

INZ027-032>034-201445-
ADAMS-GRANT-BLACKFORD-JAY-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...DECATUR...BERNE...MARION...HARTFORD CITY...
MONTPELIER...PORTLAND
1034 AM EDT WED MAR 19 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN INDIANA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

HEAVY RAINFALL FROM LAST NIGHT HAS LED TO AREAS OF FLOODING.
ROADWAY CLOSURES ARE POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY EVENING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

&&

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO FOR FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES...OR
CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT WEATHER.GOV/IWX

LMZ043-046-201445-
NEW BUFFALO MI TO ST JOSEPH MI-MICHIGAN CITY IN TO NEW BUFFALO MI-
1034 AM EDT WED MAR 19 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN LAKE
MICHIGAN.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO FOR FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES...OR
CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT WEATHER.GOV/IWX/PROGRAMAREAS/MARINE/INDEX.PHP

JC