Lake Effect Snow Warning 2, NWS Northern Indiana

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
342 PM EST TUE FEB 26 2008

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY....

SYNOPTIC SNOW DIMINISHING QUICKLY AS SFC LOW OVR PA CONTS EWD AND
CONTD BREAKDOWN OF MID LVL DEFORMATION ZONE. HWVR LK EFFECT DVLPG
QUICKLY ON ITS BACKSIDE AND WELL AHD OF ANY 12/18Z MODEL INDICATION.
VIS IMAGERY SHOWS UPSCALE BANDING W/SUPERIOR CONNECTION WELL
ALTHOUGH LK AGGREGATE INDUCED TROUGHING NOT ALL THAT INTENSE YET
WHICH FAVORS A MORE WIDESPREAD MULTIPLE BANDED EVENT TO START AND
SEEN IN LATEST EVOLUTION OF RADAR ECHOES. HWVR CONTD DEEPENING OF
CAA LYR AND SHARPENING THERMAL CONTRAST LOOKS TO PROMOTE MORE
CONCENTRATED BANDING AFT MIDNIGHT. HOW THIS ALL PLAYS OUT IS STILL
UNCERTAIN ESP IN LIGHT OF 12/18Z NAM/WRF PLUME DEPICTION WHICH LOOKS TOO
FAR WEST GIVEN INITIAL BANDING A GOOD PROXY FOR FVRD LL CONVERGENCE
MAXIMA SETUP ESP INLAND. THIS SUGGESTS UPGRADING PREV WATCH TO A
WARNING IN ITS ENTIRETY INCLUDING STARK AND MARSHALL GIVEN LONG AXIS
FETCH AND MEAN LYR FLW TAKING SATURATED PARCELS THROUGH DEEP DENTRIC
GROWTH ZONE WELL INLAND. SECONDARY SW TROUGH DROPPING OUT MN WILL
ACCENTUATE SNOWFALL FURTHER INCLUDING AREAS OUTSIDE LK BEL W/MOST
LOCATIONS SEEING ANOTHER 1-2 INCHES THROUGH WED AFTN. LK EFFECT
AMOUNTS CERTAINLY MORE VARIABLE ESP W/EXPECTED SINGLE BAND DVLPMNT
LATER TONIGHT. GENERAL ACCUMULATION OF 4-8 INCHES IS LIKELY
W/POTENTIAL FOR UP TO A FOOT STILL PLAUSIBLE IF SINGLE BAND PERSISTS
FOR SVRL HOURS ALTHOUGH FAVORED AREA LOOKS TO BE ACRS WRN
BERRIEN/ERN LAPORTE/NW ST JOSEPH FM 06-12Z. WILL FVR COLDEST MAV
NUMBERS THROUGH THE PD IN LIGHT OF SIG SNOW COVER AND CONTD CAA.

&&

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...

ACTIVE WINTER PATTERN TO CONTINUE...

FORECAST CONCERNS LIE WITH ENDING OF LAKE EFFECT SNOWS WED NIGHT
THRU THU...CLIPPER SYSTEM THU NITE AND FRI...AND ANOTHER POTENTIAL
SNOWSTORM EARLY NEXT WEEK.

AFTER IMPRESSIVE LAKE EFFECT SINGLE BAND MENTIONED IN SHORT TERM
DISSIPATES...WINDS WILL BACK MORE WESTERLY FAVORING MULTIPLE
BANDS WITH SHORTER INLAND PENETRATION EXPECTED WED NITE INTO THU
MORNING. NAM SEEMS TO HAVE INITIATED WELL WITH INITIAL LAKE EFFECT
BAND SO HAVE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO BUMP POPS TO LIKELY IN THE FAR
NW WED NIGHT WITH ANOTHER FEW INCHES POSSIBLE IN BERRIEN...CASS...
ST JOE, IN...AND LAPORTE WITH THE MULTI BANDS. H85 RIDGE WILL
BUILD IN BY MIDDAY THU AND SHUT LAKE EFFECT DOWN AS LL FLOW BACKS
TO THE SW AHEAD OF APPROACHING CLIPPER.

GOMEX WILL BE OPEN FOR THIS CLIPPER AND EXPECT MOISTURE AND LIFT TO
BE SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW INCHES OF SNOW...ESPECIALLY NORTH.  LAST FEW
RUNS GFS HAS BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT IN INDICATING WET BULB TEMPS
ABOVE 0C THU NIGHT AND FRI IN LOWEST 1KM IN THE SE CWA...SO INSERTED
MENTION OF RAIN MIXING IN. CURRENT THOUGHTS ARE STILL THAT
SNOWPACK COULD KEEP BNDRY LAYER COOL ENOUGH TO KEEP ALL PRECIP IN
THE FORM OF SNOW...HOWEVER WAA PRETTY IMPRESSIVE AND NO DRY AIR
BEING ADVECTED INTO THE LOW LEVELS TO AID IN EVAP COOLING WARRANTS
AT LEAST MIX MENTION. SNOW LOOKS TO BE OF THE SAME HEAVY, WET NATURE
AS LAST NIGHTS WHICH SHOULD KEEP ACCUMS DOWN...ESPECIALLY WHERE
RAIN MIXES IN. GFS INDICATING FORCING FOR A LITTLE BIT OF WRAP
AROUND PRECIP FRI NITE WITH SOME LAKE ENHANCEMENT...SO EXTENDED POP
PERIOD BY 6 HRS TO 6Z SAT.

TEMPS WILL BEGIN TO WARM SUNDAY AHEAD OF APPROACHING SYSTEM. BELIEVE
WITH EXPECTED SNOWPACK THAT WAA WILL NOT BE REALIZED AT SFC. FOG MAY
ALSO BECOME A PROBLEM...BUT MUCH TO EARLY TO BEGIN INCLUDING IN
FCST. GFS...ITS ENSEMBLES...AND 00Z ECMWF STILL INDICATING STG
SYSTEM MOVING UP WEST SIDE OF APPALACHIANS EARLY NEXT WEEK.
PATTERN THIS WINTER HAS BEEN FOR THE MODELS TO TREND THESE SYSTEMS
NW...LEAVING US IN FAVORABLE NW QUAD FOR SNOW...MAKING THIS SYSTEM
ONE TO WATCH. HOWEVER...GOOD DEAL OF WARM AIR PROGGED TO BE
PULLED INTO THIS SYSTEM SO CONTINUED TO FAVOR A RAIN/SNOW MIX WITH
CONTINUED UNCERTAINTY AT THIS POINT.

&&

.AVIATION...DISCUSSION FOR 18Z TAFS...

IFR AND LIFR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING WITH REMAINING HEAVY SNOW
ACROSS THE AREA. SHOULD SEE SOME IMPROVEMENT IN VIS LATE MORNING AND
THIS AFTERNOON AS SYSTEM EXITS. WINDS STILL EXPECTED TO INCREASE
THROUGH THE DAY AS STORM SYSTEM FINALLY DEEPENS AND COLDER AIR MOVES
IN. SIGNIFICANT LAKE EFFECT SNOW BAND LOOKS QUITE POSSIBLE TONIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY. TRAJECTORIES SUGGEST IT COULD MOVE INTO KSBN MID TO
LATE EVENING AND LAST OVERNIGHT. TRIED TO TIME BEST WINDOW OF
OPPORTUNITY AT KSBN AS MODELS HAVE BEEN RATHER CONSISTENT IN SHOWING
THIS BAND. AFFECTS OF THIS BAND LIKELY NOT INTO KFWA UNTIL 12Z OR
AFTER ON WED.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST /5 PM CST/ WEDNESDAY FOR
     INZ003-004-012-014.

MI...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR MIZ077.

OH...NONE.
LM...GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR LMZ043-046.

&&

SHORT TERM...HOLSTEN
LONG TERM...SIMPSON
AVIATION...HOLSTEN

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
523 AM EST TUE FEB 26 2008

INZ003>009-012>018-020-022>027-032>034-MIZ077>081-OHZ001-002-004-005-
015-016-024-025-271030-
LA PORTE-ST. JOSEPH IN-ELKHART-LAGRANGE-STEUBEN-NOBLE-DE KALB-STARKE-
PULASKI-MARSHALL-FULTON IN-KOSCIUSKO-WHITLEY-ALLEN IN-WHITE-CASS IN-
MIAMI-WABASH-HUNTINGTON-WELLS-ADAMS-GRANT-BLACKFORD-JAY-BERRIEN-
CASS MI-ST. JOSEPH MI-BRANCH-HILLSDALE-WILLIAMS-FULTON OH-DEFIANCE-
HENRY-PAULDING-PUTNAM-VAN WERT-ALLEN OH-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...MICHIGAN CITY...LA PORTE...SOUTH BEND...
MISHAWAKA...ELKHART...GOSHEN...LAGRANGE...TOPEKA...ANGOLA...
KENDALLVILLE...LIGONIER...AUBURN...GARRETT...KNOX...NORTH JUDSON...
WINAMAC...FRANCESVILLE...PLYMOUTH...BREMEN...ROCHESTER...WARSAW...
WINONA LAKE...COLUMBIA CITY...SOUTH WHITLEY...FORT WAYNE...
MONTICELLO...BROOKSTON...LOGANSPORT...PERU...WABASH...
NORTH MANCHESTER...HUNTINGTON...BLUFFTON...OSSIAN...DECATUR...
BERNE...MARION...HARTFORD CITY...MONTPELIER...PORTLAND...NILES...
BENTON HARBOR...ST. JOSEPH...BUCHANAN...DOWAGIAC...CASSOPOLIS...
STURGIS...THREE RIVERS...COLDWATER...HILLSDALE...BRYAN...WAUSEON...
ARCHBOLD...DEFIANCE...NAPOLEON...PAULDING...ANTWERP...OTTAWA...
PANDORA...VAN WERT...DELPHOS...LIMA
523 AM EST TUE FEB 26 2008 /423 AM CST TUE FEB 26 2008/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST OHIO...
SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN AND NORTHERN INDIANA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SNOW IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST TODAY.
NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO BETWEEN 15
AND 25 MPH TODAY WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 30 MPH. THIS MAY CAUSE
BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW.

A LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR PARTS OF NORTHWEST
INDIANA AND SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. A
SIGNIFICANT SINGLE BAND OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW IS POSSIBLE FROM THIS
EVENING INTO WEDNESDAY.

FLOODING OF SOME RIVERS IN THE AREA WILL ALSO CONTINUE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS FROM THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW BAND ARE
POSSIBLE INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR
SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS IN THE FAVORED SNOW BELT AREAS. IF THIS
BAND INDEED DEVELOPS...IT WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE 4 TO
8 INCHES OF SNOW WITH LOCAL AMOUNTS AROUND A FOOT.

THERE IS ALSO A GOOD CHANCE FOR SNOW ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY WITH A FEW INCHES OF ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE.

TRAVEL COULD BE IMPACTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AND AGAIN
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. STAY TUNED FOR UPDATED FORECASTS AND NEW
INFORMATION AS IT BECOMES AVAILABLE.

SOME RIVER FLOODING WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEK
AND THE RISK OF ICE JAMS ON RIVERS WILL PERSIST AS COLDER AIR
RETURNS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT ANY FLOODING AND ICE JAMS...AS
WELL AS ANY SNOWFALL REPORTS.

&&

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO FOR FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES...OR
CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT WEATHER.GOV/IWX

LMZ043-046-271030-
NEW BUFFALO MI TO ST JOSEPH MI-MICHIGAN CITY IN TO NEW BUFFALO MI-
523 AM EST TUE FEB 26 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN LAKE
MICHIGAN.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR NORTHEAST GALES TO 35 KNOTS
THROUGH TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS FOR SMALL CRAFT ARE POSSIBLE THROUGHOUT MUCH
OF THIS TIME PERIOD.

&&

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO FOR FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES...OR
CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT WEATHER.GOV/IWX/PROGRAMAREAS/MARINE/INDEX.PHP

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
147 PM EST TUE FEB 26 2008

..TIME..    ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0140 PM     SNOW             HAMILTON                41.53N  84.92W
02/26/2008  M9.5 INCH        DE KALB            IN   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

EVENT NUMBER 01057

BML

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
149 PM EST TUE FEB 26 2008

..TIME..    ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0140 PM     SNOW             1 S HAMILTON            41.52N  84.92W
02/26/2008  M6.0 INCH        DE KALB            IN   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

EVENT NUMBER 01058

BML

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
214 PM EST TUE FEB 26 2008

..TIME..    ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0213 PM     SNOW             MOSCOW                  42.05N  84.51W
02/26/2008  M5.0 INCH        HILLSDALE          MI   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

EVENT NUMBER 01059

BJS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
218 PM EST TUE FEB 26 2008

..TIME..    ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0200 PM     SNOW             COLUMBUS GROVE          40.92N  84.06W
02/26/2008  M4.2 INCH        PUTNAM             OH   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

EVENT NUMBER 01060

BJS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
432 PM EST TUE FEB 26 2008

..TIME..    ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0415 PM     SNOW             ROLLING PRARIE          41.67N  86.62W
02/26/2008  E0.0 INCH        LA PORTE           IN   TRAINED SPOTTER

            SPOTTER REPORTED DRIFTING SNOW OVER THE NORTHBOUND
            LANES OF US 20 IN ROLLING PRAIRIE

&&

EVENT NUMBER 01061

LMK