Gale Warning 11, NWS Northern Indiana

947 
WHUS73 KIWX 150129
MWWIWX

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
929 PM EDT SUN SEP 14 2008


LMZ043-046-150930-
/O.CAN.KIWX.GL.W.0011.000000T0000Z-080915T0400Z/
/O.EXT.KIWX.SC.Y.0051.080915T0129Z-080916T0600Z/
NEW BUFFALO MI TO ST JOSEPH MI-MICHIGAN CITY IN TO NEW BUFFALO MI-
929 PM EDT SUN SEP 14 2008

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 AM EDT TUESDAY...
...GALE WARNING IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NORTHERN INDIANA HAS CANCELLED
THE GALE WARNING. THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL
2 AM EDT TUESDAY. 

NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KNOTS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
EARLY MONDAY NIGHT. WAVES OF 5 TO 8 FEET CAN BE EXPECTED TONIGHT
AND 4 TO 7 FEET ON MONDAY BEFORE GRADUALLY DECREASING ON MONDAY
NIGHT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT SUSTAINED WINDS OR FREQUENT
GUSTS OF 22 TO 33 KNOTS ARE LIKELY...AND/OR WAVES GREATER THAN
4 FEET ARE EXPECTED. INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE
OPERATING SMALLER VESSELS SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE
CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
650 AM EDT SUN SEP 14 2008

.SHORT TERM...
DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROF MOVG EAST ACROSS THE PLAINS TODAY WILL
CONTINUE TO STEER REMNANTS OF HURRICANE IKE NE INTO OUR AREA.
TROPICAL SYSTEM WILL BECOME EXTRA-TROPICAL AND DEEPEN/INTENSIFY AS
IT MOVES NE ACROSS NRN INDIANA THIS AFTN AND THROUGH THE LWR
GRTLKS TO THE ST. LAWRENCE RIVER VLY TONIGHT. SEVERAL FACTORS
SUPPORT GOING HEAVY RAIN THREAT... PWAT OF 2-2.5...STRONG LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE CONV AS LOW APPROACHES.... STRONG UPR LVL DIV TO EAST OF
UPR TROF IN ENTRANCE REGION OF ULJ OVER UPR GRTLKS... ALL MOVE ACROSS
THE CWA TODAY. THUS...NO SGFNT CHANGE TO GOING CAT POPS...HEAVY
RAIN FCST AND FFA. WITH LOW EXPECTED TO TRACK NE ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PORTION OF CWA...A THREAT OF SVR WX EXISTS OVER SE PORTION
OF CWA TODAY. ALREADY STRONG SHEAR WILL INTENSIFY AS IKE REMNANTS
MOVE THROUGH CAUSING LOW LEVEL FLOW TO BACK. LIMITING FACTOR WILL
BE WK INSTABILITY/SMALL LAPSE RATES...BUT GIVEN STRONG SHEAR/WIND
FIELDS TODAY EVEN LOW TOPPED CELLS COULD PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS OR
TORNADOES. RAINFALL SHOULD TAPER OFF ACROSS THE AREA TOWARD
EVENING AS LOW MOVES TO OUR NE. SOME WRAP AROUND SHOWERS STILL
LIKELY INTO THE EVENING AS SYNOPTIC PRECIP TRANSITIONS TO LAKE
EFFECT WITH DELTA TS INCRSG FROM 11C AT 00Z MON TO 16C AT 12Z
MON. LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS MAY PERSIST INTO MON MORNING PD BEFORE
LOWERING INVERSION BRINGS THEM TO AN END BY MIDDAY. WITH RIDGE
BUILDING INTO THE AREA MON NGT FAIR WX EXPECTED...HWVR WITH MOIST
GROUND CONDITIONS AND STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING...THERE IS SOME
POTENTIAL FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT. HELD OFF ADDING TO FCST FOR NOW AS
MODELS ARE SUGGESTING LOW LEVELS MAY DRY OUT TOO MUCH FOR
WIDESPREAD FOG TO FORM.

&&

.LONG TERM...
TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

RATHER BENIGN WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD AS A
CENTRAL CONUS RIDGE WILL SLOWLY SHIFT EAST IN RESPONSE TO A SLIGHTLY
PROGRESSIVE DIGGING PAC NW UPPER TROUGH. HAVE PREFERRED TO REMAIN
CLOSE TO DEEPER OFFERINGS OF THIS FEATURE...WHICH IS BEST PROGGED BY
THE 12Z ECMWF/00Z GEM/AND A FEW GEFS MEMBERS. THE REASON FOR THIS
DIRECTION IS THE INTENSITY OF THE UPPER LEVEL JET ON THE BACK SIDE
OF THE TROUGH...WHICH WOULD SUPPORT A PERIOD OF DIGGING AS THIS
SYSTEM LIFTS ENE. THIS WILL BASICALLY ALLOW A SLIGHTLY STRONGER
CENTRAL CONUS RIDGE/SLOWER EASTWARD PROGRESSION/AND RESIDUAL SFC
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION FOR SEVERAL DAYS.

HAVE LOWERED HIGHS A FEW DEGREES TUES PER UNSEASONABLY COOL H85
TEMPS PROGGED AT 5C...WHICH WITH DEEP MIXING WOULD ONLY SUPPORT
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S. ADDED SOIL MOISTURE IN THE NW HALF OF THE FA
WILL ONLY ACT TO PRECLUDE THE FORMATION OF SUPERADIABATS OFF THE
SURFACE...ALLOWING COOLER READINGS. GIVEN ABOVE CONCERNS AND
EXPECTATIONS PER ATMOSPHERIC EVOLUTION...HAVE CONTINUED WARMING
TREND INTO THE WEEK...OPTING FOR A THE SLOW SIDE OF THINGS.
EXPECTING TEMPS TO RISE TO AND ABOVE SEASONAL VALUES BY LATE WEEK.
UPPER LEVEL SUBSIDENT FLOW WILL SUPPORT MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WITH
CLEAR NIGHTS. DRY NORTHERLY SFC FLOW WILL ALLOW DEWPOINTS TO FALL
INTO THE 40S/LOWER 50S SPURRING MODERATELY LARGE DIURNAL SWINGS IN
TEMPS FROM LOWS TO HIGHS. LIGHT WINDS AND INCREASED SOIL MOISTURE
FROM RECENT AND FORTHCOMING RAINS WILL ALLOW PATCHY MIFG AT NIGHT.

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS THEN EXPECTED TO EJECT INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS BY LATE WEEK...SUPPORTING A SFC REFLECTION OVER THE UPPER
MIDWEST. RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED BY LATE WEEK LOCALLY. THE
NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIP WOULD LIKELY BE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
SYSTEM...BUT TIMING/INTENSITY/AND TRACK ARE FAR FROM BEING RESOLVED
AT THIS TIME. CURRENT INDICATIONS SUGGEST A SAT-SUN ARRIVAL...AND
WILL DEFER ANY WX CHANGES TO FORECAST ISSUANCES.

OVERALL...EXPECT A DRY AND DELIGHTFUL WEEK...WITH TEMPS STARTING
BELOW NORMAL AND RISING TO AT OR ABOVE CLIMO BY THE END OF THE
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...
RAIN WILL GRADUALLY INTENSIFY AT SBN THIS MORNING AS T.D. IKE MOVES
NE INTO INDIANA. BASED ON CONDITIONS UPSTREAM EXPECTING MVFR-IFR
CIGS/VSBYS WITH HEAVY RAIN AT THIS SITE. FWA WILL BE EAST OF THE LOW
TRACK AND THUS HAVE MORE SHOWERY WX 06Z NAM INDICATES STRONG WINDS
ALOFT WILL MIX DOWN TO SFC AT FWA TODAY BUT BELIEVE AMOUNT OF CLOUD
COVER MOVG IN WILL LIMIT MIXING SO STUCK WITH GUSTS TO 25KT THERE
FOR NOW. WK INSTABILITY COMBINED WITH STRONG FORCING MAY SUPPORT
SOME LOW TOPPED TSTMS VCNTY OF FWA. GIVEN WK INSTABILITY FCST EXPECT
STORMS WILL BE WIDELY SCATTERED SO CONTD WITH JUST A CB MENTION IN
TAFS. AS LOW MOVES NE OF THE AREA LATE THIS AFTN WRAP AROUND MVFR
STRATO CU WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA AND PERSIST THROUGH THE
NIGHT...WHILE WINDS SLOWLY DIMINISH AS LOW MOVES AWAY FROM THE AREA.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR INZ003>009-012>018-020-
     022>024.

MI...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR MIZ077>081.

OH...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR OHZ001-002-004-005.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 2 AM EDT
     TUESDAY FOR LMZ043-046.

&&

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...JT
LONG TERM...CHAMBERLAIN

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
434 AM EDT SUN SEP 14 2008

INZ004>009-012>018-020-022>027-032>034-MIZ078>081-OHZ001-002-004-005-
015-016-024-025-150845-
ST. JOSEPH IN-ELKHART-LAGRANGE-STEUBEN-NOBLE-DE KALB-STARKE-PULASKI-
MARSHALL-FULTON IN-KOSCIUSKO-WHITLEY-ALLEN IN-WHITE-CASS IN-MIAMI-
WABASH-HUNTINGTON-WELLS-ADAMS-GRANT-BLACKFORD-JAY-CASS MI-
ST. JOSEPH MI-BRANCH-HILLSDALE-WILLIAMS-FULTON OH-DEFIANCE-HENRY-
PAULDING-PUTNAM-VAN WERT-ALLEN OH-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...SOUTH BEND...MISHAWAKA...ELKHART...
GOSHEN...LAGRANGE...TOPEKA...ANGOLA...KENDALLVILLE...LIGONIER...
AUBURN...GARRETT...KNOX...NORTH JUDSON...WINAMAC...FRANCESVILLE...
PLYMOUTH...BREMEN...ROCHESTER...WARSAW...WINONA LAKE...
COLUMBIA CITY...SOUTH WHITLEY...FORT WAYNE...MONTICELLO...
BROOKSTON...LOGANSPORT...PERU...WABASH...NORTH MANCHESTER...
HUNTINGTON...BLUFFTON...OSSIAN...DECATUR...BERNE...MARION...
HARTFORD CITY...MONTPELIER...PORTLAND...DOWAGIAC...CASSOPOLIS...
STURGIS...THREE RIVERS...COLDWATER...HILLSDALE...BRYAN...WAUSEON...
ARCHBOLD...DEFIANCE...NAPOLEON...PAULDING...ANTWERP...OTTAWA...
PANDORA...VAN WERT...DELPHOS...LIMA
434 AM EDT SUN SEP 14 2008 /334 AM CDT SUN SEP 14 2008/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST OHIO...
SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN AND NORTHERN INDIANA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

HEAVY RAIN AND FLOODING IS EXPECTED TODAY...ESPECIALLY OVER
NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE AREA. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED SOUTHEAST OF A LOGANSPORT TO HILLSDALE LINE TODAY. SEVERE
STORMS WITH DAMAGING WINDS OR EVEN A BRIEF TORNADO ARE ALSO
POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

RIVER FLOODING IS LIKELY OVER PORTIONS OF THE AREA DUE TO THE
VERY HEAVY RAINFALL THIS WEEKEND.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED TODAY.

&&

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO FOR FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES...OR
CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT WEATHER.GOV/IWX

INZ003-LMZ043-046-MIZ077-150845-
LA PORTE-NEW BUFFALO MI TO ST JOSEPH MI-
MICHIGAN CITY IN TO NEW BUFFALO MI-BERRIEN-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...MICHIGAN CITY...LA PORTE...NILES...
BENTON HARBOR...ST. JOSEPH...BUCHANAN
434 AM EDT SUN SEP 14 2008 /334 AM CDT SUN SEP 14 2008/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN INDIANA...
SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN AND EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN LAKE MICHIGAN.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

HEAVY RAIN TODAY WILL CONTINUE TO CAUSE FLOODING PROBLEMS.

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR NEARSHORE WATERS OF SOUTHEAST
LAKE MICHIGAN AND THERE IS AN INCREASED RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ALONG
THE SHORELINE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

RIVER FLOODING DUE TO THE VERY HEAVY RAINFALL THIS WEEKEND IS
LIKELY. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE
MONDAY NIGHT ALONG WITH THE INCREASED RISK OF RIP CURRENTS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE REQUESTED TO REPORT HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING.

&&

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO FOR FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES...OR
CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT WEATHER.GOV/IWX