Severe Thunderstorm Warning 232, NWS Indianapolis, IN

000 
WWUS53 KIND 272101
SVSIND

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
401 PM EST SAT DEC 27 2008

INC045-157-171-272130-
/O.CON.KIND.SV.W.0232.000000T0000Z-081227T2130Z/
FOUNTAIN-TIPPECANOE-WARREN-
401 PM EST SAT DEC 27 2008

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 430 PM
EST/330 PM CST/ FOR NORTHEASTERN FOUNTAIN...WARREN AND NORTHWESTERN
TIPPECANOE COUNTIES...

AT 357 PM EST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING
WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.  THESE STORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE
EXTENDING FROM 7 MILES NORTHWEST OF OTTERBEIN TO PENCE...OR ALONG A
LINE EXTENDING FROM 7 MILES SOUTHEAST OF FOWLER TO 15 MILES NORTHEAST
OF DANVILLE...MOVING EAST AT 45 MPH.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAR...
  ATTICA BY 410 PM EST...
  OTTERBEIN BY 415 PM EST...
  WEST LAFAYETTE BY 430 PM EST...

LAT...LON 4034 8689 4024 8753 4035 8754 4049 8753
      4049 8711 4058 8710 4058 8690
TIME...MOT...LOC 2101Z 256DEG 38KT 4058 8713 4034 8739

$$

CO

000 
WWUS53 KIND 272112
SVSIND

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
412 PM EST SAT DEC 27 2008

INC045-157-171-272122-
/O.CAN.KIND.SV.W.0232.000000T0000Z-081227T2130Z/
FOUNTAIN-TIPPECANOE-WARREN-
412 PM EST SAT DEC 27 2008

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTHEASTERN FOUNTAIN...WARREN
AND NORTHWESTERN TIPPECANOE COUNTIES IS CANCELLED...

LAT...LON 4034 8689 4024 8753 4035 8754 4049 8753
      4049 8711 4058 8710 4058 8690
TIME...MOT...LOC 2112Z 256DEG 38KT 4061 8698 4037 8724

$$

CO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
115 PM EST SAT DEC 27 2008

.DISCUSSION...
MAIN CHALLENGE TO THE FCST WL BE IN THE SHORT TERM REGARDING
GRADIENT WINDS...SEVERE POTENTIAL..QPF AND CVRG TNGT AS A STG CD FNT
MOVES THROUGH.

REGIONAL RADAR WAS SHOWING A LINE OF SVR TRWS ACRS WCNTRL IL INTO
SWRN MO JUST AHEAD OF A APCHG STG CD FNT. MEANWHILE...STG SRLY LOW
LVL RETURN FLOW AHEAD OF THE FNT HAS BUMPED TEMPS INTO THE 60S ACRS
ALL OF CNTRL INDIANA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. FINALLY...UA PATTERRN
FEATURED A SHARP TROF ACRS THE HIGH PLAINS AND A HIGH AMPLITUDE
RIDGE JUST OF THE ERN SHORE.

GFS CONTINUED TO BE A LITTLE BIT FASTER THAN THE NAM PUSHING THE  CD
FNT THROUGH TNGT. WL SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE AS EACH HAS SUPPORT FM
OTHER MODELS. AT ANY RATE...WL MOVE THE FNT THROUGH QUICKLY IN THE
02Z-08Z TIME FRAME TNGT. SO...THE FNT AND THE ASSOCIATE RW ACTIVITY
SHOULD MOVE THROUGH QUICKLY ENOUGH THAT A FLOOD WATCH WL NOT BE
NEEDED DESPITE THE FNT INTERACTING WITH LOW LVL 70 KT JET...RR QUAD
OF 125KT 250 MB JET AND PRECIP H20 VALUES TO 1.5 INCHES.
HOWEVER...WRN HALF OF THE FA IS IN A SLGT RISK THIS EVENING FOR
SEVERE WEATHER AS THE WCNTRL IL SQUALL LINE WL MOVE THROUGH. VERY
STG MAINLY UNI-DIRECTIONAL SHEAR (SRHS GREATER THAN 500) BUT WEAK
INSTABILITY (ML CAPES BLW 300 J/KG) FAVORS POSSIBILITY OF A FEW WIND
DAMAGE EVENTS...ALTHOUGH WITH MAGNITUDE OF SHEAR CAN NOT RULE OUT
ISOLD TORNADOES. WE HAVE SEEN COLD SEASON SETUPS LIKE THIS BEFORE
(SEPT 20, 2002 BEING ONE) WITH LOTS OF SHEAR AND LITTLE TO NO
INSTABILITY AND YET RECEIVED TORNADOES. AWIPS DISTANCE SPEED TOOL
SUGGESTS SQUALL LINE WL REACH WRN PARTS OF THE FA BY 00Z THIS EVE
AND SPREAD QUICKLY NE UNDER THE SAIL OF 70+ KT DEEP LYR SW WINDS.
40KT WINDS JUST OFF THE SFC SHOULD BE ABLE TO MIX DOWN TNGT
ESPECIALLY ALONG AND BEHIND THE FNT AS AREA OF SUBSIDENCE MOVES
THROUGH JUST AHEAD OF THE STG UPR TROF THAT WL PASS THROUGH TOMORROW
MRNG. TOOK OUT SNOW CHANCES ON THE TAIL END OF THE SYS TNGT AS MODEL
SOUNDINGS AND MOS OVERNGT LOWS SUGGEST.

SFC HIGH PRES WL BUILD IN FM THE W ON SUNDAY AND BE THE MAJOR
INFLUENCE FOR THE START OF THE WEEK. THAT COMBINED WITH A DRY COLUMN
WL ALLOW FOR LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CLOUD COVER. IT WL ALSO ALLOW FOR
TEMPS SLIGHTLY ABV NORMAL WITH STG CAA TNGT BECOMING WEAK ON SUNDAY
AND WEAK WAA BY SUNDAY NGT.

UPR TROF TO PASS ACRS THE GT LKS ON TUE NGT AND WED...BUT WITH LOW
MN LVL RH...EXPECT FA TO BE DRY OR AT BEST JUST A COUPLE OF LGT SNOW
SHOWERS NE. NEXT CHC OF PRECIP LOOKS TO BE BY THU NGT AS A TROF
DEEPENS ACRS THE MSP VLY. TIMING AND ESP THE PLACEMENT OF THE UPR
SYS AND ASSOCIATED SFC SYS ARE QUITE DIFFERENT FOR THE GFS AND
ECMWF...BUT AT ANY RATE SNOW CHANCES LOOK GOOD THU NGT AND FRI.

WENT WITH COMPROMISE ON COOLER NAM AND NOT AS COOL GFS TNGT AS
PARENT MODELS DIFFER A BIT WITH THE SPEED OF THE CD FNT AND EITHER
SIDE HAS SUPPORT FM OTHER MODELS. TEMPS TNGT BASED ON CURRENT POST
FRONTAL TEMPS. MEANWHILE...WITH PLNTY OF SS AND CAA WEAKENING
TOMORROW AFTERNOON...PREFER WARMER NAM/GFS COMBO.

&&

.AVIATION...DISCUSSION FOR 271800Z TAF ISSUANCE. CONVECTIVE SQ LN
ASSOCIATED WITH CDFNT CURRENTLY EXTENDING FM FAR WRN IL SWWD INTO MO
AND NW AR. MODEL DATA/XTRAPOLATION INDICATES SQ LN WL PROBABLY BE
MOVG ACRS THE TAF SITES IN THE 280200Z-280600Z TIME FRAME. SOME
ELEVATED INSTABILITY COUPLED WITH STG FORCING SHOULD KEEP THE THREAT
FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTION RATHER HI DURG THAT TIME. SOME SCT SHWR
ACTVTY OUT AHEAD OF SQ LN MAY BRIEFLY AFFECT THE TERMINALS AS WELL.
UPSTREAM OBS SUGGESTS CIGS MAINLY IN THE 025-040 RANGE FOR THE
BALANCE OF THE AFT/EVEN...WITH A PD OF IFR LIKELY IN THE HEAVIER
PCPN ASSOCIATED WITH FROPA LTR TONIGHT. LIFT PRETTY MUCH PARALLELS
FNT...SO PCPN SHOULD SHUT OFF RATHER QUICKLY AFT FROPA...SO THINKING
CHCS OF ANY FREEZING/FROZEN PCPN SLIM.

BASED ON MODEL DATA AND THIS MORNING/S UA...XPCTG SFC WND GUSTS ARND
30KT FM 170-190 HEADINGS THIS AFT/EVEN. WND FIELDS BECOME VRY STG
AHEAD OF FNT THIS EVEN WITH MODEL DATA INDICATING ABOUT 75KT AT
850MB. APPEARS POTENTIAL FOR SOME SFC WND GUSTS 40-50KTS FOR A FEW
HRS EITHER SIDE OF FROPA WHERE MIXING WL BE MAXIMIZED.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...WIND ADVISORY ALL OF CENTRAL
INDIANA FM 18Z SAT-12Z SUN /1PM SAT TO 7AM SUN/.

&&

AVIATION...JAS
PUBLIC...MK

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
320 PM EST SAT DEC 27 2008

INZ041-042-049-057-064-065-071-072-281100-
DELAWARE-RANDOLPH-HENRY-RUSH-BARTHOLOMEW-DECATUR-JACKSON-JENNINGS-
320 PM EST SAT DEC 27 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL INDIANA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

WINDS WILL INCREASE INTO THE 20 TO 30 MPH RANGE THIS AFTERNOON AND
PERSIST THROUGH THE NIGHT. WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 45 MPH ARE POSSIBLE
THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY THIS EVENING AS A STRONG
COLD FRONT APPROACHES. THE STORMS WILL PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS
POSSIBLY TO 50 MPH. DEADLY CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS ALSO POSSIBLE.
STORMS MAY ALSO PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL...WHICH MAY LEAD TO
ADDITIONAL LOWLAND FLOODING.

LOWLAND FLOODING WILL CONTINUE ALONG PORTIONS OF THE WHITE...EAST
FORK WHITE...AND WABASH RIVERS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

LOWLAND FLOODING WILL CONTINUE ALONG PORTIONS OF THE EAST FORK
WHITE... AND WABASH RIVERS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER REPORTS OF WIND GUSTS TODAY AND TONIGHT ARE APPRECIATED.

&&

MORE INFORMATION...ALONG WITH OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND
CLIMATE INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND...AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/IND (ALL
LOWERCASE)

INZ021-028>031-035>040-043>048-051>056-060>063-067>070-281100-
CARROLL-WARREN-TIPPECANOE-CLINTON-HOWARD-FOUNTAIN-MONTGOMERY-
BOONE-TIPTON-HAMILTON-MADISON-VERMILLION-PARKE-PUTNAM-HENDRICKS-
MARION-HANCOCK-VIGO-CLAY-OWEN-MORGAN-JOHNSON-SHELBY-SULLIVAN-
GREENE-MONROE-BROWN-KNOX-DAVIESS-MARTIN-LAWRENCE-
320 PM EST SAT DEC 27 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL INDIANA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY THIS EVENING AS A STRONG
COLD FRONT APPROACHES. SOME OF THE STORMS COULD BE SEVERE WITH
DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES POSSIBLE. DEADLY CLOUD TO
GROUND LIGHTNING IS ALSO POSSIBLE. STORMS MAY ALSO PRODUCE HEAVY
RAINFALL...WHICH MAY LEAD TO ADDITIONAL LOWLAND FLOODING.

LOWLAND FLOODING WILL CONTINUE ALONG PORTIONS OF THE WHITE...EAST
FORK WHITE...AND WABASH RIVERS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

LOWLAND FLOODING WILL CONTINUE ALONG PORTIONS OF THE EAST FORK
WHITE... AND WABASH RIVERS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER REPORTS OF WIND GUSTS TODAY AND TONIGHT ARE APPRECIATED.

&&

MORE INFORMATION...ALONG WITH OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND
CLIMATE INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND...AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/IND (ALL
LOWERCASE)

KOCH