Severe Thunderstorm Warning 226, NWS Indianapolis, IN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
320 PM EDT SAT SEP 20 2008

.FCST DISCUSSION...

FCST FOCUS ON LOW POPS AND TEMPS IN THE SHORT TERM.

UPPER LOW NOW DRIFTING N ALONG THE MS RIVER WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE
WEAK LIFT ALOFT/SUPPORT FOR SCT -SHRA/TSRA THIS EVENING INTO SUN.

GUIDANCE IS AGAIN IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH MOS TEMPS IN THE SHORT
TERM. WILL LEAN TOWARD A BLEND FOR MAX TEMPS AND LEAN TOWARD THE
METMOS FOR LOWS.

TONIGHT...WEAK SFC LOW CENTERED NEAR IND WILL ACT TO PRODUCE WEAK
SFC CONVERGENCE.  DAYTIME HEATING AND CAPES IN THE 500-750J/KG RANGE
WILL PRODUCE SCT STORMS THIS EVENING. ISOLATED/SCT STORMS COULD
PERSIST INTO THE NIGHT CLOSER TO THE UPPER SYSTEM NEAR THE IL
BORDER SO WILL KEEP LOW CHCS THERE.

SUN...UPPER SYSTEM WILL DRIFT ACROSS THE AREA WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF
ISOLATED SHOWERS OR STORMS POSSIBLE. DAYTIME HIGHS AGAIN SHOULD
APPROACH OR JUST EXCEED THE 80 DEGREE MARK WITH SOME INCREASE IN
CLD COVERAGE POSSIBLE.

MON AND BEYOND...WE FAVOR A DRY FCST CLOSER TO THE ECMWF. GFS
ENSEMBLE IS TRENDING TOWARD THE ECMWF WHICH FCSTS HIGHER HTS/RIDGING
TO PERSIST FOR A LONGER PERIOD OF TIME AHEAD OF THE NEXT LONGWAVE
TROUGH WHICH WILL ALSO BE WEAKENING WITH TIME. LOOK FOR DRY AND
WARMER THAN AVG CONDS NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...

DISCUSSION FOR 18Z TAFS.

UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER SOUTHEAST MISSOURI WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ONLY
VERY SLOWLY THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. CURRENT SATELLITE AND RADAR
TRENDS SHOW THAT CLOUDS ARE INCREASING BUT PRECIPITATION NOT
REALLY INCREASING OVER CENTRAL INDIANA. THIS IS LIKELY DUE TO
QUITE A BIT OF DRY AIR THAT IS PRESENT IN THE LOW LEVELS. WILL
MENTION FEW-SCT CU THIS AFTERNOON AT 4-7KFT BUT NOT INCLUDE CB
SINCE THIS IS NOT SUPPORTED SO FAR BY WHAT IS GOING ON. CLOUDS
WILL DISSIPATE AFTER 00Z WITH THE LOSS OF SUN. BUT THE MID LEVEL
DECK SHOULD REMAIN IN THE SCT-BKN STATUS WITH THE UPPER LOW STILL
NEARBY. THIS CLOUD DECK IS LIKELY TO INHIBIT FOG FORMATION DESPITE
THE LIGHT WINDS AND INCREASED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TONIGHT. THE BEST
SHOT AT IFR WILL BE LAF WHERE IT IS MOST LIKELY THAT SKIES WILL
CLEAR. AT HUF AND BMG WILL GO WITH MVFR VSBY AFTER 06Z TIME
TONIGHT WITH DISSIPATION OF FOG AT ALL SITES BY 13Z. THEN JUST VFR
CONDITIONS FOR THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

AVIATION...JOHNSON
PUBLIC...CO

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
318 PM EDT SAT SEP 20 2008

INZ021-028>031-035>049-051>057-060>065-067>072-211930-
CARROLL-WARREN-TIPPECANOE-CLINTON-HOWARD-FOUNTAIN-MONTGOMERY-
BOONE-TIPTON-HAMILTON-MADISON-DELAWARE-RANDOLPH-VERMILLION-PARKE-
PUTNAM-HENDRICKS-MARION-HANCOCK-HENRY-VIGO-CLAY-OWEN-MORGAN-
JOHNSON-SHELBY-RUSH-SULLIVAN-GREENE-MONROE-BROWN-BARTHOLOMEW-
DECATUR-KNOX-DAVIESS-MARTIN-LAWRENCE-JACKSON-JENNINGS-
318 PM EDT SAT SEP 20 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL INDIANA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. NO
SEVERE WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED HOWEVER THE STRONGEST STORMS WILL BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SMALL HAIL AND HEAVY RAINS. ANY HAIL THREAT
WILL END WITH SUNSET THIS EVENING. BE AWARE FOR DANGEROUS CLOUD TO
GROUND LIGHTNING WITH ANY STORMS INTO TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY. NO SEVERE WEATHER IS
EXPECTED BUT ANY STORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING CLOUD TO
GROUND LIGHTNING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

&&

MORE INFORMATION...ALONG WITH OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND
CLIMATE INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND...AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/IND (ALL
LOWERCASE)

CO

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
446 PM EDT SAT SEP 20 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0443 PM     HAIL             5 E INDIANAPOLIS        39.78N 86.05W
09/20/2008  U0.75 INCH       MARION             IN   TRAINED SPOTTER

            HAIL REPORTED AT 38TH STREET AND SHADELAND.

&&

JNIELD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
447 PM EDT SAT SEP 20 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0446 PM     HAIL             3 ESE BAINBRIDGE        39.74N 86.76W
09/20/2008  U0.25 INCH       PUTNAM             IN   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            HAIL REPORTED IN THE HERITAGE LAKE AREA.

&&

JNIELD