Severe Thunderstorm Warning 185, NWS Indianapolis, IN

000 
WWUS53 KIND 202036
SVSIND

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
436 PM EDT SUN JUL 20 2008

INC045-121-165-202100-
/O.CON.KIND.SV.W.0185.000000T0000Z-080720T2100Z/
FOUNTAIN-PARKE-VERMILLION-
436 PM EDT SUN JUL 20 2008

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 500 PM EDT
FOR PARKE...VERMILLION AND SOUTHERN FOUNTAIN COUNTIES...

AT 434 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PENNY SIZE
HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.  THIS STORM WAS
LOCATED NEAR BLOOMINGDALE...OR 23 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
CRAWFORDSVILLE...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 45 MPH.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
  JUDSON BY 445 PM EDT...

THIS IS A DANGEROUS STORM. IF YOU ARE IN ITS PATH...PREPARE
IMMEDIATELY FOR DAMAGING WINDS...DESTRUCTIVE HAIL...AND DEADLY
LIGHTNING. PEOPLE OUTSIDE SHOULD MOVE TO A SHELTER...PREFERABLY
INSIDE A STRONG BUILDING BUT AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

LAT...LON 3998 8753 4001 8741 4009 8734 4004 8711
      3961 8712 3962 8753
TIME...MOT...LOC 2036Z 294DEG 39KT 3985 8724

$$

AB

000 
WWUS53 KIND 202100
SVSIND

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
500 PM EDT SUN JUL 20 2008

INC045-121-165-202110-
/O.EXP.KIND.SV.W.0185.000000T0000Z-080720T2100Z/
FOUNTAIN-PARKE-VERMILLION-
500 PM EDT SUN JUL 20 2008

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR PARKE...VERMILLION AND
SOUTHERN FOUNTAIN COUNTIES HAS EXPIRED...

LAT...LON 3998 8753 4001 8741 4009 8734 4004 8711
      3961 8712 3962 8753
TIME...MOT...LOC 2036Z 294DEG 39KT 3985 8724

$$

AB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
243 PM EDT SUN JUL 20 2008

.DISCUSSION...

FORECAST FOCUS IS ON CHANCES FOR RAIN THROUGH MID WEEK.

AT 18Z A SFC BOUNDARY EXTENDED ACRS NRN SECTIONS OF CENTRAL IN INTO
IL. SCT TSRA WERE FIRING ALONG THIS BOUNDARY AS WELL AS POPPING UP
ACRS REMAINDER OF FORECAST AREA /FA/ DUE TO UNSTABLE ATMS. TSRA WERE
ALSO TRYING TO GET GOING IN WRN IA.

MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT. NO ONE MODEL IS DOING GREAT WITH
CONVECTION BUT THE MODELS MAIN MASS FIELDS ARE SIMILAR. WILL USE A
BLEND...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW DUE TO UNCERTAINTY OF MCS DEVELOPMENT
WHICH OFTEN ARE NOT HANDLED WELL BY MODELS.

EXPECT SCT TSRA TO CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING WITH BOUNDARY IN THE
AREA AND CONTINUED UNSTABLE ATMS. WILL CONTINUE CHC POPS THIS
EVENING. MEANWHILE...STRONG WARM ADVECTION BEGINS ALOFT ACROSS NE/IA
WHICH SHOULD FIRE ANOTHER MCS. THIS MCS WILL TRACK TOWARD THE FA
OVERNIGHT. SOME QUESTION AS TO WHETHER IT WILL MAKE IT TO THE FA BY
12Z. THUS AM NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH FOR LIKELY POPS OVERNIGHT. WENT
HIGH CHANCE POPS NW FA OVERNIGHT /CLOSEST TO POTENTIAL MCS TRACK/
WITH LOWEST POPS SE FA /FARTHEST AWAY FROM POTENTIAL MCS TRACK/.
THESE ARE STILL HIGHER THAN MOS WHICH ATTM DOES NOT LOOK LIKE IT
HANDLES THE SITUATION WELL. WITH CLOUDS AROUND AND A CONTINUED HUMID
AIRMASS...FEEL THAT MAV TEMPS ARE TOO COOL. BLENDED MAV WITH THE
WARMER MET VALUES.

ON MON REMNANTS OF MCS MAY BE MOVING ACROSS FA DURING THE
MORNING...WITH MORE SCT STORMS FIRING IN THE AFTN ALONG REMNANT
BOUNDARIES. WITH TIMING AND COVERAGE UNCERTAIN...KEPT CHANCE POPS
ALL DAY. MAV TEMPS LOOK TOO WARM GIVEN CLOUDS AND TSRA AROUND. WENT
CLOSER TO MET NUMBERS.

UPPER TROF WILL DIG SW INTO THE AREA MON NIGHT INTO TUE AND BRING
COOLER AND DRIER AIR INTO THE AREA BY WED. TSRA THREAT WILL CONTINUE
MON NIGHT AND TUE ACROSS ENTIRE FA AS ANOTHER MCS MAY RIDE ACROSS
SRN FA. BELIEVE ENUF DRIER AIR WILL WORK INTO NRN FA TO END RAIN
THREAT THERE BY TUE AFTN. ENDED RAIN REMAINDER OF FA BY TUE NIGHT.
GFS IS A BIT STRONGER WITH UPPER LOW AND KEEPS RAIN THREAT INTO
WED...BUT IT IS AN OUTLIER ATTM SO WILL CONTINUE DRY FORECAST WED.

NEXT WAVE WILL IMPACT FA THU NIGHT INTO FRI SO CONTINUED LOW CHC
POPS THEN. REMOVED POPS ON THU AS TIMING NOW APPEARS TO BE THU NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...DISCUSSION FOR 18Z TAFS

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WERE DEVELOPING NEAR A CD
FRONT FROM JUST SOUTH OF KCHI TO KMLI. A FEW OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS
MAY MOVE NEAR OR ACROSS THE KLAF AREA THIS AFTERNOON. ELSEWHERE
FORECAST IS MORE MUDDLED AS MODELS ARE FORECASTING A QUIET PATTERN
BUT WITH A VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS AND A COLD FRONT DRIFTING SOUTH
ACROSS OUR AREA.

I CANNOT RULE OUT A THUNDERSTORM ANYWHERE...BUT UNTIL LATE TONIGHT
ANY THUNDERSTORMS WILL PROBABLY BE ISOLATED SO WILL LEAVE OUT OF
TAFS FOR NOW.  THERE IS GOOD LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ACROSS IOWA AND
AND ANOTHER THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX WILL LIKELY DEVELOP OVERNIGHT AND
MOVE OUR WAY BY EARLY MONDAY MORNING. THUS WILL INCREASE MENTION OF
THUNDERSTORMS DESPITE WHAT MODELS ARE FORECASTING BY MONDAY.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

AVIATION...JH
PUBLIC...CS

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
323 PM EDT SUN JUL 20 2008

INZ021-028>031-035>049-051>057-060>065-067>072-211930-
CARROLL-WARREN-TIPPECANOE-CLINTON-HOWARD-FOUNTAIN-MONTGOMERY-
BOONE-TIPTON-HAMILTON-MADISON-DELAWARE-RANDOLPH-VERMILLION-PARKE-
PUTNAM-HENDRICKS-MARION-HANCOCK-HENRY-VIGO-CLAY-OWEN-MORGAN-
JOHNSON-SHELBY-RUSH-SULLIVAN-GREENE-MONROE-BROWN-BARTHOLOMEW-
DECATUR-KNOX-DAVIESS-MARTIN-LAWRENCE-JACKSON-JENNINGS-
323 PM EDT SUN JUL 20 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL INDIANA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT. SEVERE
STORMS ARE POSSIBLE...WITH DAMAGING WINDS THE PRIMARY THREAT.
HEAVY RAIN IS ALSO POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

THE RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY AS
A COLD FRONT SLOWLY MOVES SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA. THE MAIN HAZARD
MONDAY ALSO APPEARS TO BE DAMAGING WINDS. DO NOT FORGET THAT CLOUD
TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS ALWAYS A THREAT WITH ANY STORM.

STORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE TUESDAY AND AGAIN NEXT THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY. SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL BE NEEDED INTO THIS EVENING AND MAY BE
NEEDED AGAIN LATER MONDAY.

&&

MORE INFORMATION...ALONG WITH OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND
CLIMATE INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND...AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/IND (ALL
LOWERCASE)