Severe Thunderstorm Warning 181, NWS Indianapolis, IN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
715 PM EDT TUE JUL 8 2008

AVIATION...

FOR THE 00Z TAFS.

A LARGE AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL ILLINOIS WILL SPREAD
EAST ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA THIS EVENING.  AT PRESENT RATE OF
MOVEMENT BEST CHANCES OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MID-LATE
EVENINGS ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL INDIANA.  A COLD FRONT ACROSS
NORTHERN ILLINOIS WILL SPREAD SE ACROSS OUR AREA OVERNIGHT.  THIS
SHOULD BRING AN END OF THE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE KLAF AREA BY 07Z AND
MOST OTHER AREAS A FEW HOURS AFTER THAT. WILL MENTION A PERIOD OF
MVFR CEILINGS AT KIND-KHUF LATE TONIGHT FROM NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS
EARLIER AND AFTER COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH.

MODELS SHOW DRYING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH BY WEDNESDAY AS WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE GREAT LAKES.  A S/W MOVING THROUGH THE OHIO
VALLEY MAY BRING SCT THUNDERSTORMS TO SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
INDIANA ON WEDNESDAY. FOR NOW WILL ONLY MENTION CB IN TAF AT KBMG.

&&

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

FOCUS ON PRECIP CHANCES TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

CURRENT SURFACE MAP SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE COAST OF THE
SOUTHEASTERN CONUS AND LOW PRESSURE OVER THE LAKES REGION. ALOFT
AT H5 THERE WAS A STRONG RIDGE COVERING THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
COUNTRY AND A TROUGH OVER SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA.

MODELS WERE VERY SIMILAR AGAIN...TEMPS AND POPS WERE CLOSE ENOUGH
IN THE MOS GUIDANCE THAT A BLEND COULD BE SAFELY USED.

FOR THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT...THE SLIGHT RISK REMAINS ACROSS THE
WHOLE AREA. SUNSHINE WAS BROKEN THIS MORNING BY DEBRIS CLOUDINESS
FROM AN MCS TO OUR WEST. THIS HAS HELD US BACK FROM CONVECTIVE
TEMPS THROUGH 1 PM. BUT SUNSHINE INCREASED AND CONVECTIVE TEMPS
HAVE BEEN MET. LAPS ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT THERE IS NO CAPPING
REMAINING AND SO THINGS SHOULD GET GOING SOON AS THE COLD FRONT
NEARS NORTHWESTERN INDIANA. VERY HIGH SURFACE DEWPOINTS AND MODEL
SOUNDINGS INDICATING PWATS TO NEAR 2.25 INCHES. THE SOUNDINGS
CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THE PRIMARY THREATS TODAY WILL BE DAMAGING
WINDS FROM WET MICROBURSTS...AS WELL AS VERY HEAVY RAINFALL.
TRAINING CELLS MAY BECOME AN ISSUE WITH A SLOW MOVING FRONT AND
UNIDIRECTIONAL WINDS. HAIL WILL BE LESS OF AN ISSUE WITH A DEEP
WARM LAYER AND QUITE HIGH FREEZING LEVELS. THE SEVERE THREAT WILL
DIMINISH TOWARDS MIDNIGHT AS THE VORT MAX PASSES TO THE SOUTHEAST
AND LEAVES THE FORCING MOSTLY FROM THE LOW LEVEL FRONT AS WELL AS
BOUNDARIES FROM TODAYS CONVECTION. THE HIGH PWATS WILL CONTINUE TO
CREATE A HEAVY RAIN THREAT OVERNIGHT. LOWS SHOULD STAY IN THE LOW
70S AGAIN.

ON WEDNESDAY...THE FRONT WILL SAG TO AROUND THE OHIO RIVER. BEST
FORCING WILL BE SOUTH OF THE AREA...SO WILL KEEP THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST IDEA OF POPS TAPERING OFF FROM SOUTH TO NORTH. LIKELY
RAIN EARLY IN THE SOUTH BUT DIMINISHING QUITE A BIT DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS AS THE FRONT CONTINUES ITS SOUTHWARD PUSH. HIGH
PRESSURE FROM THE LAKES WILL BUILD IN OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY AND
SCOUR THINGS OUT...DRY OUT THE AIR...AND SEND TEMPS WELL DOWN INTO
THE LOW 60S AND EVEN SOME UPPER 50S IN THE NORTH.

THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. TEMPS WILL BE COOLER THAN NORMAL ON THURSDAY BUT ON FRIDAY
WILL START TO WARM BACK UP AS THE NEXT SYSTEM DEVELOPS IN THE
PLAINS AND SENDS H8 TEMPS BACK TO NEAR +20C. THIS WILL PROVIDE A
HOT AND HUMID START TO THE WEEKEND...FOLLOWED BY PRECIP CHANCES
AGAIN BY EARLY SUNDAY WITH NOCTURNAL CONVECTION SHOWING UP IN THE
GFS...FOLLOWED BY PERHAPS COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER TO START NEXT WEEK.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

AVIATION...JH
PUBLIC...JOHNSON

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
303 PM EDT TUE JUL 8 2008

INZ021-028>031-035>049-051>057-060-062>065-072-091915-
CARROLL-WARREN-TIPPECANOE-CLINTON-HOWARD-FOUNTAIN-MONTGOMERY-
BOONE-TIPTON-HAMILTON-MADISON-DELAWARE-RANDOLPH-VERMILLION-PARKE-
PUTNAM-HENDRICKS-MARION-HANCOCK-HENRY-VIGO-CLAY-OWEN-MORGAN-
JOHNSON-SHELBY-RUSH-SULLIVAN-MONROE-BROWN-BARTHOLOMEW-DECATUR-
JENNINGS-
303 PM EDT TUE JUL 8 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL INDIANA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING. THE
PRIMARY THREAT FROM STORMS WILL BE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS...VERY
HEAVY DOWNPOURS...AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING. THE SEVERE THREAT WILL
DIMINISH BY MIDNIGHT BUT THE THREAT FOR HEAVY RAIN PRODUCING
STORMS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS EARLY WEDNESDAY. SEVERE WEATHER
IS NOT EXPECTED BUT LIGHTNING AND BRIEF HEAVY RAIN WILL BE
POSSIBLE IN THE STORMS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED AFTER 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

MORE INFORMATION...ALONG WITH OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND
CLIMATE INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND...AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/IND (ALL
LOWERCASE)

INZ061-067>071-091915-
GREENE-KNOX-DAVIESS-MARTIN-LAWRENCE-JACKSON-
303 PM EDT TUE JUL 8 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL INDIANA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS EVENING.
THE PRIMARY THREAT FROM STORMS WILL BE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS...VERY
HEAVY DOWNPOURS...AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING. THE SEVERE THREAT WILL
DIMINISH BY MIDNIGHT BUT THE THREAT FOR HEAVY RAIN PRODUCING
STORMS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT.

NEAR BANKFULL CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ON AREA RIVERS AND
STREAMS...INCLUDING THE WHITE AND EAST FORK WHITE RIVERS. HEAVY
RAIN THIS EVENING MAY MAKE FLOODING WORSE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL EARLY AFTERNOON
WEDNESDAY. WHILE SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED...HEAVY DOWNPOURS
AND LIGHTNING CAN BE EXPECTED IN THESE STORMS. ADDITIONAL HEAVY
RAINFALL COULD MAKE FLOODING ON AREA RIVERS AND STREAMS WORSE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED AFTER 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

MORE INFORMATION...ALONG WITH OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND
CLIMATE INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND...AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/IND (ALL
LOWERCASE)

LJ

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
643 PM EDT TUE JUL 8 2008

INZ035-043-044-082315-
FOUNTAIN-PARKE-VERMILLION-
643 PM EDT TUE JUL 8 2008

...STRONG THUNDERSTORM MOVING THROUGH...

A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL MOVE ACROSS AREAS AROUND CAYUGA...
PERRYSVILLE AND AREAS SOUTH OF VEEDERSBURG THROUGH 715 PM. THIS
STORM WILL PRODUCE HEAVY RAIN...WIND GUSTS OVER 40 MPH...AND HAIL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
827 PM EDT TUE JUL 08 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0809 PM     TSTM WND DMG     TERRE HAUTE             39.47N 87.38W
07/08/2008                   VIGO               IN   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            TREES AND PWR LINES DOWN

&&

CEO

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
829 PM EDT TUE JUL 08 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0817 PM     TSTM WND DMG     CLINTON                 39.66N 87.41W
07/08/2008                   VERMILLION         IN   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            3 TREES AND 1 POWER LINE BLOWN DOWN

&&

CEO

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
849 PM EDT TUE JUL 08 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0835 PM     TSTM WND DMG     SW CLOVERDALE           39.52N 86.80W
07/08/2008                   PUTNAM             IN   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            TREE DOWN OVER SR 42

&&

CEO

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
901 PM EDT TUE JUL 08 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0845 PM     TSTM WND DMG     PARAGON                 39.39N 86.56W
07/08/2008                   MORGAN             IN   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            TREES AND PWR LINES DOWN...SOME STRUCTURAL DAMAGE

&&

CEO

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