River Flood Watch 4, NWS Indianapolis, IN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
605 PM EST SAT DEC 27 2008

.AVIATION...DISCUSSION FOR 280000Z TAF ISSUANCE. LEADING EDGE OF SQ
LN CURRENTLY PROGRESSING EWD ACRS THE LOCAL AREA. EXTRAPOLATION
SUGGESTS LEADING EDGE SHOULD BE NR KIND SHORTLY AFT ISSUANCE TIME
AND IN THE KBMG AREA ARND 280100Z. LIGHTNING ACTVTY HAS BECOME MUCH
MORE SPORADIC IN NATURE WITH MOST OF THE INSTABILITY LOCATED S OF
THE OH RVR. THEREFORE...LIGHTNING THREAT AT THE TERMINALS SEEMS TO
HAVE LESSENED. BRIEF IFR RESTRICTIONS AND SOME SFC WND GUSTS
35-40KTS PSBL WITH SQ LN.

OTRW...RATHER LRG AREA OF RAIN BEHIND SQ LN AND AHEAD OF FNT. SOME
IFR CIGS 006-008 AGL STARTING TO SHOW UP WITHIN THE RAIN AREA.
APPEARS SFC WNDS WL BACK ARND TO 140-160 HEADINGS OVR THE NEXT FEW
HRS WITH SOME GUSTS 15-20KTS PSBL. FROPA STILL LOOKS IN THE
280400Z-280600Z TIME FRAME...ALTHOUGH IT NO LONGER LOOKS LIKE MUCH
CONVECTION WL BE ASSOCIATED WITH IT. RAPID WND SHFT TO 250-270
HEADINGS WITH SOME SFC GUSTS ARND 40KTS FOR A FEW HRS AFT FROPA.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
MAIN CHALLENGE TO THE FCST WL BE IN THE SHORT TERM REGARDING
GRADIENT WINDS...SEVERE POTENTIAL..QPF AND CVRG TNGT AS A STG CD FNT
MOVES THROUGH.

REGIONAL RADAR WAS SHOWING A LINE OF SVR TRW'S ACRS WCNTRL IL INTO
SWRN MO JUST AHEAD OF A APCHG STG CD FNT. MEANWHILE...STG SRLY LOW
LVL RETURN FLOW AHEAD OF THE FNT HAS BUMPED TEMPS INTO THE 60S ACRS
ALL OF CNTRL INDIANA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. FINALLY...UA PATTERRN
FEATURED A SHARP TROF ACRS THE HIGH PLAINS AND A HIGH AMPLITUDE
RIDGE JUST OF THE ERN SHORE.

GFS CONTINUED TO BE A LITTLE BIT FASTER THAN THE NAM PUSHING THE  CD
FNT THROUGH TNGT. WL SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE AS EACH HAS SUPPORT FM
OTHER MODELS. AT ANY RATE...WL MOVE THE FNT THROUGH QUICKLY IN THE
02Z-08Z TIME FRAME TNGT. SO...THE FNT AND THE ASSOCIATE RW ACTIVITY
SHOULD MOVE THROUGH QUICKLY ENOUGH THAT A FLOOD WATCH WL NOT BE
NEEDED DESPITE THE FNT INTERACTING WITH LOW LVL 70 KT JET...RR QUAD
OF 125KT 250 MB JET AND PRECIP H20 VALUES TO 1.5 INCHES.
HOWEVER...WRN HALF OF THE FA IS IN A SLGT RISK THIS EVENING FOR
SEVERE WEATHER AS THE WCNTRL IL SQUALL LINE WL MOVE THROUGH. VERY
STG MAINLY UNI-DIRECTIONAL SHEAR (SRH'S GREATER THAN 500) BUT WEAK
INSTABILITY (ML CAPES BLW 300 J/KG) FAVORS POSSIBILITY OF A FEW WIND
DAMAGE EVENTS...ALTHOUGH WITH MAGNITUDE OF SHEAR CAN NOT RULE OUT
ISOLD TORNADOES. WE HAVE SEEN COLD SEASON SETUPS LIKE THIS BEFORE
(SEPT 20, 2002 BEING ONE) WITH LOTS OF SHEAR AND LITTLE TO NO
INSTABILITY AND YET RECEIVED TORNADOES. AWIPS DISTANCE SPEED TOOL
SUGGESTS SQUALL LINE WL REACH WRN PARTS OF THE FA BY 00Z THIS EVE
AND SPREAD QUICKLY NE UNDER THE SAIL OF 70+ KT DEEP LYR SW WINDS.
40KT WINDS JUST OFF THE SFC SHOULD BE ABLE TO MIX DOWN TNGT
ESPECIALLY ALONG AND BEHIND THE FNT AS AREA OF SUBSIDENCE MOVES
THROUGH JUST AHEAD OF THE STG UPR TROF THAT WL PASS THROUGH TOMORROW
MRNG. TOOK OUT SNOW CHANCES ON THE TAIL END OF THE SYS TNGT AS MODEL
SOUNDINGS AND MOS OVERNGT LOWS SUGGEST.

SFC HIGH PRES WL BUILD IN FM THE W ON SUNDAY AND BE THE MAJOR
INFLUENCE FOR THE START OF THE WEEK. THAT COMBINED WITH A DRY COLUMN
WL ALLOW FOR LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CLOUD COVER. IT WL ALSO ALLOW FOR
TEMPS SLIGHTLY ABV NORMAL WITH STG CAA TNGT BECOMING WEAK ON SUNDAY
AND WEAK WAA BY SUNDAY NGT.

UPR TROF TO PASS ACRS THE GT LKS ON TUE NGT AND WED...BUT WITH LOW
MN LVL RH...EXPECT FA TO BE DRY OR AT BEST JUST A COUPLE OF LGT SNOW
SHOWERS NE. NEXT CHC OF PRECIP LOOKS TO BE BY THU NGT AS A TROF
DEEPENS ACRS THE MSP VLY. TIMING AND ESP THE PLACEMENT OF THE UPR
SYS AND ASSOCIATED SFC SYS ARE QUITE DIFFERENT FOR THE GFS AND
ECMWF...BUT AT ANY RATE SNOW CHANCES LOOK GOOD THU NGT AND FRI.

WENT WITH COMPROMISE ON COOLER NAM AND NOT AS COOL GFS TNGT AS
PARENT MODELS DIFFER A BIT WITH THE SPEED OF THE CD FNT AND EITHER
SIDE HAS SUPPORT FM OTHER MODELS. TEMPS TNGT BASED ON CURRENT POST
FRONTAL TEMPS. MEANWHILE...WITH PLNTY OF SS AND CAA WEAKENING
TOMORROW AFTERNOON...PREFER WARMER NAM/GFS COMBO.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...WIND ADVISORY ALL OF CENTRAL
INDIANA FM 18Z SAT-12Z SUN /1PM SAT TO 7AM SUN/.

&&

AVIATION...JAS
PUBLIC...MK

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
320 PM EST SAT DEC 27 2008

INZ041-042-049-057-064-065-071-072-281100-
DELAWARE-RANDOLPH-HENRY-RUSH-BARTHOLOMEW-DECATUR-JACKSON-JENNINGS-
320 PM EST SAT DEC 27 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL INDIANA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

WINDS WILL INCREASE INTO THE 20 TO 30 MPH RANGE THIS AFTERNOON AND
PERSIST THROUGH THE NIGHT. WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 45 MPH ARE POSSIBLE
THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY THIS EVENING AS A STRONG
COLD FRONT APPROACHES. THE STORMS WILL PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS
POSSIBLY TO 50 MPH. DEADLY CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS ALSO POSSIBLE.
STORMS MAY ALSO PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL...WHICH MAY LEAD TO
ADDITIONAL LOWLAND FLOODING.

LOWLAND FLOODING WILL CONTINUE ALONG PORTIONS OF THE WHITE...EAST
FORK WHITE...AND WABASH RIVERS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

LOWLAND FLOODING WILL CONTINUE ALONG PORTIONS OF THE EAST FORK
WHITE... AND WABASH RIVERS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER REPORTS OF WIND GUSTS TODAY AND TONIGHT ARE APPRECIATED.

&&

MORE INFORMATION...ALONG WITH OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND
CLIMATE INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND...AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/IND (ALL
LOWERCASE)

INZ021-028>031-035>040-043>048-051>056-060>063-067>070-281100-
CARROLL-WARREN-TIPPECANOE-CLINTON-HOWARD-FOUNTAIN-MONTGOMERY-
BOONE-TIPTON-HAMILTON-MADISON-VERMILLION-PARKE-PUTNAM-HENDRICKS-
MARION-HANCOCK-VIGO-CLAY-OWEN-MORGAN-JOHNSON-SHELBY-SULLIVAN-
GREENE-MONROE-BROWN-KNOX-DAVIESS-MARTIN-LAWRENCE-
320 PM EST SAT DEC 27 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL INDIANA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY THIS EVENING AS A STRONG
COLD FRONT APPROACHES. SOME OF THE STORMS COULD BE SEVERE WITH
DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES POSSIBLE. DEADLY CLOUD TO
GROUND LIGHTNING IS ALSO POSSIBLE. STORMS MAY ALSO PRODUCE HEAVY
RAINFALL...WHICH MAY LEAD TO ADDITIONAL LOWLAND FLOODING.

LOWLAND FLOODING WILL CONTINUE ALONG PORTIONS OF THE WHITE...EAST
FORK WHITE...AND WABASH RIVERS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

LOWLAND FLOODING WILL CONTINUE ALONG PORTIONS OF THE EAST FORK
WHITE... AND WABASH RIVERS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER REPORTS OF WIND GUSTS TODAY AND TONIGHT ARE APPRECIATED.

&&

MORE INFORMATION...ALONG WITH OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND
CLIMATE INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND...AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/IND (ALL
LOWERCASE)

KOCH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
511 PM EST SAT DEC 27 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0509 PM     TSTM WND GST     3 N CAYUGA              39.99N 87.46W
12/27/2008  E55 MPH          VERMILLION         IN   TRAINED SPOTTER

            TRAINED SPOTTER REPORTED 55-65 MPH ESTIMATED THUNDERSTORM
            GUSTS IN BETWEEN CAYUGA AND PERRYSVILLE

&&

MKOCH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
559 PM EST SAT DEC 27 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0533 PM     TSTM WND DMG     1 S MULBERRY            40.33N 86.67W
12/27/2008                   CLINTON            IN   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            2 TREES DOWN.

&&

MKOCH