River Flood Warning 100, NWS Indianapolis, IN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1216 AM EST MON MAR 4 2008

.AVIATION...DISCUSSION FOR 6Z TAFS.
-FZRA SHOULD CONT AT KHUF FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS...AND SHOULD BEGIN
AT KIND SHORTLY. TEMPS WL BE BORDERLINE FOR FZRA FOR THESE SITES
MUCH OF THE PD AND HAVE TRIED TO TIME THE MVMENT OF THE COLD AIR.
KLAF WILL STAY DRY MUCH OF THE PD TIL SOME WRAPAROUND SNOW DEVELOPS
IN THE AFTERNOON. KBMG SHUD STAY RAIN MUCH OF THE TIME WITH TEMPS
ABOVE FREEZING...BUT WL SEE A CHANGEOVER TO SNOW IN LATE AFTERNOON.
CIGS WL BE IFR MUCH OF THE PD WITH KLAF HAVING THE BEST CHANCE AT
IMPROVING TO MVFR DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS. VSBYS SHUD BE MVFR.
WINDS SHUD STRENGTHEN IN THE MORNING AS PRES GRADIENT INCREASES AND
COULD SEE GUSTS TO 30 KTS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...MAIN FOCUS IS ON STRONG WEATHER SYSTEM TONIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY.

COLD FRONT WAS NEAR A KFWA-KIND TO EFFINGHAM LINE AT 20Z. MODELS
HAVE A PRETTY GOOD HANDLE IN THE SHORT TERM SO WILL USE BLEND. AS
FAR AS THE FLOOD WATCH IS CONCERNED...PRECIPITATION MAY BE NO MORE
THAN LIGHT TO MODERATE IN OUR NORTHWEST SO WILL END FLOOD WATCH
THERE. ALSO TEMPERATURES THERE WILL BE DROPPING BELOW FREEZING
LATER TONIGHT AND MODEL QPF IN OUR NORTHWEST IS LITTLE MORE THAN A
HALF INCH.

OTHER BIG CONCERN IS CHANGE OVER TO FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET
OVERNIGHT AND TUESDAY AS COLDER AIR MOVES IN. BOTH GFS/NAM SURFACE
TEMPERATURES BARELY REACH FREEZING NEAR I70 BY 12Z SO THIS SHOULD
BE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF FREEZING RAIN. SINCE NEAR I70 WILL BE NEAR
OR POSSIBLY BELOW FREEZING...FREEZING RAIN SHOULD NOT BE AS BAD AS
FARTHER NORTH SO WILL ISSUE ADVISORY THESE AREAS. IN OUR VERY FAR
NORTHWEST...SLEET AND LOWER QPF SHOULD LIMIT ICING THERE.

OUR NORTH CENTRAL ZONES SHOULD HAVE LOW ENOUGH TEMPERATURES PLUS
MORE LIQUID PRECIP AND QPF SO THIS IS THE AREA MOST LIKELY TO
EXCEED ONE QUARTER INCH ICE ACCUMULATION.

AS LOW PASSES BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON 1000-700 MB THICKNESS FALL LOW
ENOUGH FOR PRECIP TO BECOME MOSTLY SNOW OVER MOST AREAS EXECEPT
FOR OUR FAR EAST AND SOUTHEAST BY LATE TUESDAY. AT PRESENT TIME
LOOK FOR UP TO 2-3 INCHES OF SNOW IN OUR FAR NORTHWEST AND MAYBE
AN INCH AS FAR EAST AS INDY BY TUESDAY EVENING.

HAVE GONE A LITTLE COLDER THAN HPC IN SOME OF THE EXTENDED PERIODS
BASED ON THE GFS AND EURO MODELS. OTHERWISE ONLY MINOR CHANGES MADE.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR INZ039>042-045>049-
051>057-060>065-067>072.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 5 AM TO 4 PM EST TUESDAY FOR INZ037-
039-042-045>049-051-052.

WINTER STORM WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 4 PM EST TUESDAY
FOR INZ021-029>031-038-040-041.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 4 PM EST
TUESDAY FOR INZ028-035-036-043-044.

&&

AVIATION...CP
PUBLIC...JH

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
549 AM EST TUE MAR 4 2008

INZ021-028>031-035>049-051-052-051100-
CARROLL-WARREN-TIPPECANOE-CLINTON-HOWARD-FOUNTAIN-MONTGOMERY-
BOONE-TIPTON-HAMILTON-MADISON-DELAWARE-RANDOLPH-VERMILLION-PARKE-
PUTNAM-HENDRICKS-MARION-HANCOCK-HENRY-VIGO-CLAY-
549 AM EST TUE MAR 4 2008

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL INDIANA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

A MIX OF FREEZING RAIN...SLEET...AND SNOW IS EXPECTED TODAY AND
TONIGHT. SNOWFALL TOTALS OF ONE TO THREE INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN
THE LAFAYETTE AREA...OTHERWISE AROUND AN INCH OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE.
LIGHT ICE ACCUMULATIONS ARE ALSO EXPECTED...MAINLY ON ELEVATED
SURFACES SUCH AS TREES AND POWER LINES.

FLOODING IS POSSIBLE ALONG SMALL STREAMS AND CREEKS THROUGH
TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

FLOODING MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE MAJOR RIVERS LATER IN THE WEEK.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

&&

MORE INFORMATION...ALONG WITH OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND
CLIMATE INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND...AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/IND (ALL
LOWERCASE)

INZ053>057-060>065-067>072-051100-
OWEN-MORGAN-JOHNSON-SHELBY-RUSH-SULLIVAN-GREENE-MONROE-BROWN-
BARTHOLOMEW-DECATUR-KNOX-DAVIESS-MARTIN-LAWRENCE-JACKSON-JENNINGS-
549 AM EST TUE MAR 4 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL INDIANA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

FLOODING IS EXPECTED ALONG SMALL STREAMS AND CREEKS THROUGH TONIGHT.

A LIGHT MIX OF FREEZING RAIN...SLEET...AND SNOW MAY DEVELOP THIS
EVENING. MINOR ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOWFALL ARE POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

FLOODING MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE MAJOR RIVERS LATER IN THE WEEK.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

&&

MORE INFORMATION...ALONG WITH OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND
CLIMATE INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND...AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/IND (ALL
LOWERCASE)