Severe Thunderstorm Warning 82, NWS Lincoln, IL

000 
WWUS53 KILX 012148
SVSILX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
449 PM CDT SUN JUN 1 2008

ILC029-012215-
/O.CON.KILX.SV.W.0082.000000T0000Z-080601T2215Z/
COLES-
449 PM CDT SUN JUN 1 2008

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 515 PM CDT
FOR SOUTHERN COLES COUNTY...

AT 447 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS CONTINUED TO
DETECT A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PENNY SIZE HAIL...
AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.  THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR
COLES COUNTY AIRPORT...OR ABOUT 4 MILES EAST OF MATTOON...MOVING
SOUTHEAST AT 26 MPH.

PEOPLE NEAR THESE LOCATIONS ARE STILL THREATENED...
  CHARLESTON...
  FOX RIDGE STATE PARK...
  HUTTON...

THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 57 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 187 AND 196.

IF YOU ARE IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM...PREPARE IMMEDIATELY FOR
DAMAGING WINDS...DESTRUCTIVE HAIL...AND DEADLY CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING. PEOPLE OUTSIDE SHOULD MOVE TO A SHELTER...PREFERABLY
INSIDE A STRONG BUILDING BUT AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

LAT...LON 3938 8806 3946 8839 3949 8842 3959 8830
      3949 8806
TIME...MOT...LOC 2149Z 305DEG 23KT 3949 8828

$$

SMITH

000 
WWUS53 KILX 012155
SVSILX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
456 PM CDT SUN JUN 1 2008

ILC029-012206-
/O.CAN.KILX.SV.W.0082.000000T0000Z-080601T2215Z/
COLES-
456 PM CDT SUN JUN 1 2008

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTHERN COLES COUNTY IS
CANCELLED...

AT 452 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED THAT
THE THUNDERSTORM THAT HAD PROMPTED THE WARNING HAD WEAKENED...THUS
THE WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED.

LAT...LON 3938 8806 3946 8839 3949 8842 3959 8830
      3949 8806
TIME...MOT...LOC 2156Z 305DEG 23KT 3946 8823

$$

SMITH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
146 PM CDT SUN JUN 1 2008

.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 146 PM CDT SUN JUN 1 2008

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT AN ACTIVE PATTERN IS SETTING UP
FOR ILLINOIS DURING THE NEXT WEEK AS ZONAL FLOW GIVES WAY TO A
HIGHLY DYNAMIC SYSTEM BY LATE WEEK.

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.
MODEL ANALYSIS HAMPERED SLIGHTLY BY LACK OF 12Z GFS. HOWEVER...06Z
GFS WAS TRENDING TOWARD EARLIER RUNS OF ECMWF WHICH WILL BE
GENERALLY FOLLOWED FOR THIS PACKAGE. WEAK SHORTWAVE IS CURRENT
MOVING ACROSS ILLINOIS AND SETTING OFF A FEW TSRA ALONG CAPE AXIS
ALONG AND JUST SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 74. MOISTURE IS LIMITED AND
COVERAGE SHOULD REMAIN ISOLATED. WAVE MOVES SOUTHEAST OF STATE
THIS EVENING ENDING PRECIP CHANCES FOR NOW.

AS NEXT LOW DEEPENS OVER HIGH PLAINS ON MONDAY A WARM FRONT
SHOULD BEGIN TO DEVELOP ACROSS KANSAS AND MISSOURI. STRONG MOIST
SOUTHERLY FLOW SHOULD ALLOW CONVECTION TO DEVELOP ALONG AND
NORTHEAST OF THE BOUNDARY MONDAY AND THEN INCREASE IN INTENSITY
AND COVERAGE DURING THE EVENING AS 850 MB JET IS PROGGED TO
INCREASE TO 40 KNOTS JUST TO OUR WEST. CORFIDI VECTORS SUGGEST
THAT ANY MCS THAT DOES DEVELOP OVER IOWA SHOULD ADVECT SOUTHEAST
INTO CENTRAL ILLINOIS. RAINFALL AMOUNTS MAY BE SIGNIFICANT IF THIS
SCENARIO DEVELOPS.

LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
ECMWF AND 06Z GFS SUGGEST THAT BOUNDARY GETS HUNG UP OVER ILLINOIS
THROUGH MIDWEEK LEAVING AT LEAST CHANCE POPS AS SHORT WAVES
RAPIDLY MOVE THROUGH ZONAL FLOW. 500 MB RIDGE TEMPORARILY BUILDS
AHEAD OF NEXT MAJOR SYSTEM ON THURSDAY AND MAY KEEP THURSDAY THE
DRIEST DAY OF THE WEEK. 850 MB TEMPS RESPOND TO LOWER LEVEL
SOUTHERLY FLOW BY TUESDAY BY CLIMBING TO 20C OR BETTER. THIS
SHOULD ALLOW A VERY SUMMERY MIX OF HUMIDITY AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS
TO BUILD THROUGH THE WEEK AHEAD OF A STRONGLY DYNAMIC SYSTEM FOR
LATE WEEK.

00Z ECMWF AND 06Z GFS IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN DEVELOPING A RATHER
SHARP NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH OVER THE PLAINS BY THURSDAY. MINOR
DIFFERENCES IN TIMING WILL HAVE LARGE IMPACTS ON CONVECTIVE
INTENSITY. CURRENT ECMWF SUGGESTS THAT THE BEST DYNAMICS WILL MOVE
THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING AT CLIMATALOGICAL DIURNAL SEVERE WEATHER
MINIMUM. HOWEVER ANY DELAY OF 12-24 HOURS COULD LEAD TO AN
EVENTFULL FRIDAY.

LITTLE COOL AIR WILL BE IN WAKE OF SYSTEM AND ECMWF SUGGESTS A
BROAD MID-LEVEL RIDGE DEVELOPS BEHIND THE WEAKENING TROUGH FOR
THE WEEKEND. WITH 500 MB HEIGHTS BUILDING ABOVE 5940 METERS BY 00Z
MONDAY. TEMPERATURES SHOULD RESPOND BY BEING WELL ABOVE NORMAL
SUNDAY WITH HEAT INDICIES POSSIBLY REACHING WELL INTO THE 90S.

BARKER
&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED 1237 PM CDT SUN JUN 1 2008
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN RATHER SCATTERED. AS A
RESULT...WILL LEAVE OUT MENTION OF TSRA IN ANY OF THE TERMINAL
SITES UNTIL CLOSER. DEC MAY END UP WITH A VCSH AS SOME RAPIDLY
DEVELOPING CU ARE HEADING THAT WAY. OTHERWISE...CUMULUS CLOUDS
BTWN 5K-7KFT ACROSS CENTRAL ILLINOIS. SOME MINOR REDUCTIONS IN
VISIBILITY EXPECTED TOMORROW MORNING AROUND SUNRISE AS FEW CLOUDS
IN THE OVERNIGHT WILL ALLOW FOR EFFICIENT RADIATIONAL COOLING.
KEEPING THE VISIBILITY DROP MODERATE AT THIS POINT...FROM 3SM TO
4SM.  VFR AFTER 13Z.

HJS
&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
309 PM CDT SUN JUN 1 2008

ILZ027>031-036>038-040>057-061>063-066>068-071>073-021200-
CASS-CHAMPAIGN-CHRISTIAN-CLARK-CLAY-COLES-CRAWFORD-CUMBERLAND-
DE WITT-DOUGLAS-EDGAR-EFFINGHAM-FULTON-JASPER-KNOX-LAWRENCE-LOGAN-
MACON-MARSHALL-MASON-MCLEAN-MENARD-MORGAN-MOULTRIE-PEORIA-PIATT-
RICHLAND-SANGAMON-SCHUYLER-SCOTT-SHELBY-STARK-TAZEWELL-VERMILION-
WOODFORD-
309 PM CDT SUN JUN 1 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
ILLINOIS...EAST CENTRAL ILLINOIS AND SOUTHEAST ILLINOIS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON...AS A WEATHER
DISTURBANCE MOVES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA. THESE STORMS MAY
PRODUCE STRONG WINDS AND SMALL HAIL...BUT ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
BELOW SEVERE CRITERIA.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

THERE IS A CHANCE OF SEVERE STORMS ON MONDAY EVENING AND AGAIN
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH ACROSS CENTRAL
ILLINOIS. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS PUT ALL OF CENTRAL
ILLINOIS IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS
A RESULT. KEEP ABREAST OF LATER FORECASTS AS THE THREAT BECOMES
BETTER DEFINED.

ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM THURSDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES EAST ACROSS THE AREA.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT.

HJS