Severe Thunderstorm Warning 63, NWS Lincoln, IL

000 
WWUS53 KILX 260058
SVSILX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
759 PM CDT SUN MAY 25 2008

ILC171-260109-
/O.CAN.KILX.SV.W.0063.000000T0000Z-080526T0115Z/
SCOTT-
759 PM CDT SUN MAY 25 2008

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTHEASTERN SCOTT COUNTY IS
CANCELLED...

AT 757 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED THAT
THE THUNDERSTORM THAT HAD PROMPTED THE WARNING HAD MOVED OUT OF THE
AREA...THUS THE WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED.

LAT...LON 3970 9000 3955 8994 3954 8995 3954 8996
      3954 8997 3953 9023 3969 9023
TIME...MOT...LOC 0059Z 264DEG 26KT 3960 9016

$$

ILC137-260115-
/O.CON.KILX.SV.W.0063.000000T0000Z-080526T0115Z/
MORGAN-
759 PM CDT SUN MAY 25 2008

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 815 PM CDT
FOR SOUTHEASTERN MORGAN COUNTY...

AT 757 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING NICKEL SIZE
HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.  THIS STORM WAS
LOCATED 3 MILES NORTHWEST OF NORTONVILLE...OR ABOUT 10 MILES SOUTH OF
JACKSONVILLE...MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.

PEOPLE NEAR THESE LOCATIONS ARE STILL THREATENED...
  FRANKLIN...

IF YOU ARE IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM...PREPARE IMMEDIATELY FOR
DESTRUCTIVE HAIL...AND DEADLY CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING. PEOPLE
OUTSIDE SHOULD MOVE TO A SHELTER...PREFERABLY INSIDE A STRONG
BUILDING BUT AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

LAT...LON 3970 9000 3955 8994 3954 8995 3954 8996
      3954 8997 3953 9023 3969 9023
TIME...MOT...LOC 0059Z 264DEG 26KT 3960 9016

$$

CHURCHILL

000 
WWUS53 KILX 260111
SVSILX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
811 PM CDT SUN MAY 25 2008

ILC137-260121-
/O.EXP.KILX.SV.W.0063.000000T0000Z-080526T0115Z/
MORGAN-
811 PM CDT SUN MAY 25 2008

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTHEASTERN MORGAN COUNTY
EXPIRES AT 815 PM CDT...

AT 806 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED THAT
THE THUNDERSTORM THAT HAD PROMPTED THE WARNING HAD WEAKENED...THUS 
THE WARNING IS BEING ALLOWED TO EXPIRE.

LAT...LON 3970 9000 3955 8994 3954 8995 3954 8996
      3954 8997 3953 9023 3969 9023
TIME...MOT...LOC 0111Z 264DEG 26KT 3961 9005

$$

CHURCHILL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
615 PM CDT SUN MAY 25 2008

.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 300 PM CDT SUN MAY 25 2008

MAIN CONCERNS REVOLVE AROUND CHANCES OF SEVERE WEATHER TONIGHT AND
MONDAY. GUIDANCE HAS BEEN OF LITTLE HELP WITH TIMING AND COVERAGE OF
CONVECTION IN THE LAST DAY AND A HALF...AND THERE IS NO REASON TO
EXPECT ANY BETTER THROUGH TUESDAY. GENERAL TRENDS IN THE MODELS ARE
RELATIVELY SIMILAR...WITH THE WARM FRONT PASSING EAST ACROSS OUR
AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND A COLD FRONT DROPPING
SOUTHEAST THROUGH C IL MON NIGHT AND TUESDAY. HOWEVER...THE FINER
DETAILS ARE MUDDY AT BEST. WILL TRY TO KEEP THINGS RELATIVELY
CONSISTENT... WITH ONLY SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS.

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.
MOST OF THE MODELS WERE GOING DRY THIS EVENING...WITH HIGHER CHANCES
LATE TONIGHT...AND THE BEST CHANCES ON MEMORIAL DAY. THE NCEP 4KM
WRF HAS NOTHING UNTIL NEAR 12Z...WHILE THE UCAR 3KM WRF HAS A STRONG
SQUALL LINE BLASTING ACROSS CENTRAL AND N IL STARTING THIS EVENING.
CURRENT SATELLITE AND RADAR TRENDS SHOW A SCENARIO SOMEWHAT CLOSER
TO THE 3KM WRF...BUT NOT NEAR AS WIDESPREAD OF COVERAGE IS EXPECTED
TONIGHT.

THE LATEST RADAR AND SATELLITE SHOW STORMS ARE POISED TO CONTINUE
ACROSS OUR FAR S...AND ALSO TO DEVELOP TO OUR WEST IN AN AREA OF
BOUNDARIES... FAVORABLE INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE. THOSE STORMS WILL
LIKELY MOVE EAST LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH A FEW SEVERE
HAIL AND WIND EVENTS POSSIBLE. SPC HAS A MESO DISC OUT FOR AREAS
JUST SW OF US...WITH A WATCH POSSIBLE.

I INCREASE POPS TO CHC THIS EVENING ALL ALONG OUR W AND S CWA
BORDER...AND KEPT SCHC ELSEWHERE. I MAY NEED TO ADJUST THAT UP IN
THE FAR SOUTH IF THE LINE OF STORMS REMAINS ACTIVE THROUGH ISSUANCE
TIME.

A TOUGH CALL ON HOW STRONG THE STORMS MAY BECOME LATE TONIGHT...AS
THE GFS AND NAM BOTH HAVE OUR ENTIRE CWA DRY UNTIL MID MORNING ON
MEMORIAL DAY. RUC13 HAS NOTHING THIS EVENING AND HINTS AT STORMS
HOLDING OFF UNTIL 09Z OR SO...BASED ON FCST TRENDS THROUGH 06Z.

I REDUCED THE AREA OF LIKELY POPS AFTER MIDNIGHT TO JUST NW OF THE
IL RIVER...WITH CHC POPS CENTRAL AND SCHC SOUTH OF I-70.

MEMORIAL DAY CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKE THE MOST ACTIVE PERIOD FOR
STORMS... SO I LEFT LIKELY POPS EVERYWHERE ALL DAY. THE FOCUS FOR
STORMS APPEARS TO BE THE 35KT H85 LLJ ARRIVING DURING THE
MORNING...AND DISSIPATING LATE IN THE DAY. THE COLD FRONT WILL
MOSTLY LIKELY REMAIN WEST OF US ALL DAY...JUST REACHING THE MISS
RIVER BY 00Z TUES. DEPENDING ON HOW LIMITED OUR SUNSHINE IS FROM
LATE NIGHT EARLY MORNING CONVECTION...MUCAPES MAY CLIMB NEAR 3K J/KG
DURING THE AFTERNOON. HELICITY AND EHI VALUES CLIMB FOR MID DAY AND
AFTERNOON AS WELL. A FEW ROTATING STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE. WE REMAIN
IN THE SLGT RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS ON DAY 2/MEM DAY AHEAD OF THE
FRONT.

MON NIGHT THE FRONT WILL PROGRESS ACROSS THE CWA...WITH CONVECTION
POSSIBLE AT ANY POINT ALONG ITS TRAVELS. CONVECTIVE INITIATION MAY
BE TIED TO LINGERING BOUNDARIES FROM THE DAYTIME CONVECTION...AND
THE TIMING AND RECOVERY PERIOD FROM DAYTIME CONVECTION. FOR
NOW...DUE TO THE FRONT MOVING SLOWER THAN EXPECTED...I EXPANDED THE
LIKELY POPS FARTHER NORTH IN OUR CWA. SO ALL BUT THE FAR NORTH IS IN
LIKELY POPS MON NIGHT.

BY 12Z TUES...THE FRONT SHOULD BE NEAR I-70 AND PROGRESSING SOUTH. I
LEFT LIKELY POPS FOR THE FAR SE ZONES WITH CHC POPS EVERYWHERE ELSE.
THE MODELS CONTINUE TO HAVE CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK PROBLEMS...MAKING
FOR A TOUGH FORECAST ON STORM COVERAGE. DID NOT GO AS HIGH ON POPS
AS THE QPF FIELDS MIGHT INDICATE...AND WENT CONSERVATIVE WITH CHC
POPS IN MOST AREAS. HAVING A HARD TIME WITH THE AMOUNT OF STORM
ACTIVITY THAT FAR NORTH OF THE FRONT AND SECONDARY LOW THAT TRACKS
UP THE FRONT ON TUESDAY. WILL KEEP AN EYE ON THE SECONDARY LOW...AS
THAT MAY PLAY A LARGER ROLL IN WHY POPS EVENTUALLY GET BUMPED HIGHER
WITH LATER RUNS.

LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.
AFTER A FEW SHOWERS LINGER IN OUR FAR SOUTH ON TUESDAY
EVENING...MUCH COOLER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.
MORNING LOWS ON WED AND THUR WILL BE BELOW NORMAL...AND DAYTIME
HIGHS WILL FOLLOW SUIT. I TRENDED TEMPS DOWN FOR NOW...BUT MOS GUID
IS 5 TO 7 DEG COLDER THAN WHAT I HAVE FOR HIGHS ON WED AND THUR...SO
MORE TRIMMING MAY BE NEEDED LATER.

THE NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIP APPEARS TO BE FRI NIGHT AND SATURDAY AS A
WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH THRU IL. I ADDED SOME CHC POPS IN THE FAR NW
ZONES ON FRI...AND LEFT THE CHC POPS FOR FRI NIGHT AND SATURDAY AS
THEY WERE FOR THE MOST PART.

EVENTUALLY A WARM UP IS EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY...AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS
BY TO THE NORTH.

SHIMON
&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED 615 PM CDT SUN MAY 25 2008

CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL WILL BE THE DOMINATING THEME FOR AREA TERMINALS
THIS TAF PD. THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING ALONG WARM FRONT THAT LIES
OTM-COU-MVN. AIRMASS TO THE EAST OF THIS FRONT OVER CENTRAL IL IS
LESS CONDUCIVE TO STRONG CONVECTION THIS EVENING DUE TO THE
STABILIZING AFFECTS OF EARLIER PCPN. THEREFORE EXPECT ONLY ISOLATED
PCPN...IF ANY...OVER THE CENTRAL IL TAF SITES THROUGH 06Z MON.
GREATEST CHCS THIS EVENING WILL BE NEAR SPI/PIA WHICH LIE CLOSEST TO
THE WARM FRONT...BUT NOT A HIGH ENOUGH RISK FOR TEMPO AT THIS TIME.
RADAR SHOWS SHOWERS INCREASING BETWEEN UIN/IJX...SO WILL PUT IN A
VCSH EARLY ON FOR SPI. THREAT FOR STORMS WILL INCREASE AFT 06Z MON
AS EXTENSIVE COMPLEX GROWS ACROSS NRN KS AND MOVES EAST INTO IL.
WITH THIS IN MIND...WILL BEGIN TEMPO THUNDER FOR SPI AROUND 10Z AND
SPREAD E WITH TIME FROM THERE. THERE SHOULD BE A FAIRLY EXTENSIVE
AREA OF PCPN ACROSS THE AREA AFTER 12Z MON...THEN MORE ON A SCT
BASIS AFT 18Z MON.

04
&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
312 PM CDT SUN MAY 25 2008

ILZ027>031-036>038-040>057-061>063-066>068-071>073-261100-
CASS-CHAMPAIGN-CHRISTIAN-CLARK-CLAY-COLES-CRAWFORD-CUMBERLAND-
DE WITT-DOUGLAS-EDGAR-EFFINGHAM-FULTON-JASPER-KNOX-LAWRENCE-LOGAN-
MACON-MARSHALL-MASON-MCLEAN-MENARD-MORGAN-MOULTRIE-PEORIA-PIATT-
RICHLAND-SANGAMON-SCHUYLER-SCOTT-SHELBY-STARK-TAZEWELL-VERMILION-
WOODFORD-
312 PM CDT SUN MAY 25 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
ILLINOIS...EAST CENTRAL ILLINOIS AND SOUTHEAST ILLINOIS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

MORE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY
MONDAY MORNING AS A FRONT STALLS OUT ACROSS THE AREA. SOME OF THE
STORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE...BRINGING LARGE HAIL...WINDS IN EXCESS
OF 60 MPH...AND ISOLATED TORNADOES.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

THE THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL LINGER INTO TUESDAY EVENING AS
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLOWLY PUSHES SOUTH OF THE AREA. A FEW STORMS
MAY BE SEVERE ON MONDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED LATE TONIGHT.

HJS