Severe Thunderstorm Warning 36, NWS Lincoln, IL

000 
WWUS53 KILX 221411
SVSILX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
910 AM CDT TUE APR 22 2008

ILC095-221420-
/O.CAN.KILX.SV.W.0036.000000T0000Z-080422T1430Z/
KNOX-
910 AM CDT TUE APR 22 2008

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTHEASTERN KNOX COUNTY IS
CANCELLED...

AT 907 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED THAT
THE THUNDERSTORM THAT HAD PROMPTED THE WARNING HAD MOVED OUT OF THE
AREA...THUS THE WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED.

LAT...LON 4097 8947 4070 8992 4071 8999 4072 8998
      4097 8998
TIME...MOT...LOC 1410Z 247DEG 45KT 4086 8989

$$

ILC143-221430-
/O.CON.KILX.SV.W.0036.000000T0000Z-080422T1430Z/
PEORIA-
910 AM CDT TUE APR 22 2008

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 930 AM CDT
FOR NORTHERN PEORIA COUNTY...

AT 907 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS CONTINUED TO
DETECT A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PENNY SIZE HAIL. 
THIS STORM WAS LOCATED 3 MILES WEST OF BRIMFIELD...OR ABOUT 18 MILES
WEST OF PEORIA...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

PEOPLE NEAR THESE LOCATIONS ARE STILL THREATENED...
  MONICA...
  KICKAPOO...
  PRINCEVILLE...
  DUNLAP...

IF YOU ARE IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM...PREPARE IMMEDIATELY FOR
DESTRUCTIVE HAIL...AND DEADLY CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING. PEOPLE
OUTSIDE SHOULD MOVE TO A SHELTER...PREFERABLY INSIDE A STRONG
BUILDING BUT AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

LAT...LON 4097 8947 4070 8992 4071 8999 4072 8998
      4097 8998
TIME...MOT...LOC 1410Z 247DEG 25KT 4086 8989

$$

BARKER

000 
WWUS53 KILX 221418
SVSILX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
918 AM CDT TUE APR 22 2008

ILC143-221428-
/O.CAN.KILX.SV.W.0036.000000T0000Z-080422T1430Z/
PEORIA-
918 AM CDT TUE APR 22 2008

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTHERN PEORIA COUNTY IS
CANCELLED...

AT 913 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED THAT
THE THUNDERSTORM THAT HAD PROMPTED THE WARNING HAD WEAKENED... 
THUS THE WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED.

LAT...LON 4097 8947 4070 8992 4071 8999 4072 8998
      4097 8998
TIME...MOT...LOC 1418Z 232DEG 44KT 4092 8973

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
619 AM CDT TUE APR 22 2008

.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 305 AM CDT TUE APR 22 2008
00Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATED DEEP WESTERN U.S. TROUGH HAS
ADVANCED EASTWARD TO THE ROCKIES. STRONG CLOSED 500 MB LOW IN SRN
CANADA WITH DIFFLUENT MID LEVEL FLOW AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE
SPREADING OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST. AT 850 MB...NARROW TONGUE OF
+10C DEWPOINTS STRETCHED FROM THE WESTERN GULF UP INTO SOUTHERN
MINNESOTA. SFC COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM FAR WESTERN WI DOWN
THROUGH EASTERN IOWA AND TRAILING BACK INTO ERN KS AT 07Z WITH
NARROW RIBBON OF MID 50S DEWPOINTS UP INTO SRN IA. ALL OF THESE
FACTORS PRODUCING LINE OF BROKEN CONVECTION FROM UPPER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY DOWN TO WRN MO. ACROSS CENTRAL AND SE IL...LIGHT SE WINDS
AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH SEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES RANGING
FROM MID 50S SE TO LOW 60S NW AT 2 AM. MAIN FORECAST ISSUES
CONTINUE TO BE FRONTAL PASSAGE LATER TODAY...AND UNSETTLED
PATTERN FOR THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.

SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT
ANOTHER WARM DAY EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION WITH COLD FRONT MAKING
SLOW PROGRESS EAST. MAX TEMPS POTENTIALLY A LITTLE WARMER THAN
YESTERDAY ESPECIALLY EAST OF I-55 BUT THIS WILL DEPEND ON AMOUNT
OF CLOUD COVER AND CONVECTION. MAIN JET STREAM DYNAMICS AND MID
LEVEL SHORTWAVE PASS WELL NORTH OVER GREAT LAKES...LEAVING
TRAILING SOUTHERN PORTION OF FRONT AND CONVERGENCE ACTING IN
MODERATELY HUMID/UNSTABLE AIRMASS TO PRODUCE SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS. POTENTIAL FOR SOME GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL WITH
AFTERNOON HEATING BUT THIS WOULD BE BRIEF AND ISOLATED WITH LACK
OF DEEP MOISTURE AND FORCING. MOST OF THE CONVECTION SHOULD BE
CLOSELY TIED TO THE SLOWLY ADVANCING BOUNDARY. POOR AGREEMENT IN
TIMING WITH NAM SEVERAL HOURS SLOWER AND ACTUALLY WASHING BOUNDARY
OUT OVER THE EASTERN CWA OVERNIGHT. GFS HOWEVER A BIT MORE
PROGRESSIVE AND SEVERAL HOURS FASTER WITH FRONT EAST OF I-55 BY
00Z AN INTO INDIANA AROUND 06Z. WILL FAVOR MORE PROGRESSIVE
SOLUTIONS WITH DECENT 1020+ MB RIDGE BUILDING IN FROM THE NRN
PLAINS TO GIVE A BIT OF A BOOST. AT ANY RATE...HIGHEST POPS IN
CHANCE CATEGORY WEST OF IL RIVER BEFORE NOON...AND SPREADING EAST
TO THE I-55 CORRIDOR BY AFTERNOON AND TOWARDS I-57 BY EVENING.
VERY LOW POPS FAR E/SE AS SYSTEM CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AND MOVE INTO
SLIGHTLY DRIER LLVL AIRMASS SO AREA EAST OF I-57 MAY STAY DRY.

LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY
ACCEPTED SOLUTIONS BRING SFC RIDGE JUST NORTH OF LOCAL AREA BY EARLY
WEDNESDAY...SETTING UP A ANOTHER VERY NICE DAY WITH LIGHT EASTERLY
WINDS AND MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. ACTIVE PATTERN RESUMES BY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. TUESDAYS FRONT WILL NOT MAKE IT VERY FAR SOUTH...AND
ALREADY BE ON THE MOVE NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT AHEAD OF LARGER
SYSTEM DEVELOPING TO THE WEST.  SYSTEM CONTINUES TO LOOK
IMPRESSIVE MORE ABUNDANT GULF MOISTURE AND MUCH BETTER DYNAMICS
THAN CURRENT SYSTEM. HAVE PRECIP CHANCES GOING THU AFTERNOON WITH
INITIAL WARM ADVECTION AND LEADING SHORTWAVE MOVING IN. COLD FRONT
STILL EXPECTED TO PUSH THROUGH ON FRIDAY AND HAVE MAINTAINED
LIKELY POPS. SATURDAY LOOKS DRY AND SEASONABLE WITH RIDGE BUILDING
IN AT THE SFC. SIGNIFICANT MODEL DIVERGENCE BY LATE WEEKEND AND
EARLY NEXT WITH MAJOR DIFFERENCES IN THE EVOLUTION OF LONGWAVE
PATTERN BETWEEN GFS/ECMWF AND MADE NO CHANGES BEYOND SATURDAY.

SCHAFFER
&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED 618 AM CDT TUE APR 22 2008

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE SLOWLY MOVING INTO WESTERN ILLINOIS
THIS MORNING. BASED ON SATELLITE LOOPS SHOWING CONTINUED COLD TOPS
WITH THIS CONVECTION...AND ADDITIONAL SCATTERED CELLS DEVELOPING
AHEAD OF THE MAIN TWO AREAS (IOWA AND MO)...BELIEVE CONVECTION
WILL LIKELY AFFECT ALL TAF SITES MINUS CMI...THIS MORNING. HIGH
CIRRUS WILL ALSO SPREAD OVER THE AREA THIS MORNING...WHICH COULD LIMIT
INSTABILITY POTENTIAL..LIMITING AMOUNT OF CONVECTION THIS
AFTERNOON AT ALL SITES. WILL CONT SOME TYPE OF CONVECTION THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT LIKELY WILL JUST BE VCTS DUE TO IT BEING VERY
SCATTERED BY THEN. FRONT SHOULD PUSH THROUGH SPI AND PIA AROUND
00Z...WITH DEC AND BMI AROUND 03Z AND CMI AROUND 06Z. SO WINDS
WILL GO FROM SOUTHEAST TO NORTH.

AUTEN
&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
608 AM CDT TUE APR 22 2008

ILZ027>031-037-038-042>044-048-051>054-061-231100-
CHRISTIAN-DE WITT-KNOX-LOGAN-MACON-MARSHALL-MCLEAN-MENARD-
MOULTRIE-PEORIA-PIATT-SANGAMON-SHELBY-STARK-TAZEWELL-WOODFORD-
608 AM CDT TUE APR 22 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
ILLINOIS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE STATE TODAY AND INTERACT
WITH A WARM, MOIST AIR MASS OVER THE AREA. THIS WILL PRODUCE
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING AND CONTINUING
INTO THIS AFTERNOON. A FEW OF THE STORMS COULD BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING SMALL HAIL AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

A STRONGER FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA TOWARD THE END OF THE
WEEK, BRINGING A BETTER CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION FOR
THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED THROUGH TONIGHT.

ILZ036-040-041-047-049-050-231100-
CASS-FULTON-MASON-MORGAN-SCHUYLER-SCOTT-
608 AM CDT TUE APR 22 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
ILLINOIS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE STATE TODAY AND INTERACT
WITH A WARM, MOIST AIR MASS OVER THE AREA. THIS WILL PRODUCE
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING AND CONTINUING
INTO THIS AFTERNOON. A FEW OF THE STORMS COULD BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING SMALL HAIL AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS.

FLOODING WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE ILLINOIS RIVER FROM HAVANA
DOWNSTREAM FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

A STRONGER FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA TOWARD THE END OF THE
WEEK, BRINGING A BETTER CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION FOR
THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED THROUGH TONIGHT.

ILZ045-046-055>057-062-063-066>068-071>073-231100-
CHAMPAIGN-CLARK-CLAY-COLES-CRAWFORD-CUMBERLAND-DOUGLAS-EDGAR-
EFFINGHAM-JASPER-LAWRENCE-RICHLAND-VERMILION-
608 AM CDT TUE APR 22 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EAST CENTRAL
ILLINOIS AND SOUTHEAST ILLINOIS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE STATE TODAY AND INTERACT
WITH A WARM, MOIST AIR MASS OVER THE AREA. THIS WILL PRODUCE
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
ILLINOIS...MAINLY WEST OF I-57. HOWEVER...EASTERN AND SOUTHEASTERN
ILLINOIS COULD SEE SOME VERY ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THIS AFTERNOON.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

A STRONGER FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA TOWARD THE END OF THE
WEEK, BRINGING A BETTER CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION FOR
THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED THROUGH TONIGHT.

AUTEN