Severe Thunderstorm Warning 251, NWS Lincoln, IL

000 
WWUS53 KILX 300049
SVSILX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
749 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2008

ILC039-113-147-300059-
/O.CAN.KILX.SV.W.0251.000000T0000Z-080730T0130Z/
DE WITT-MCLEAN-PIATT-
749 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2008

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR EASTERN MCLEAN...PIATT AND
EXTREME NORTHEASTERN DE WITT COUNTIES IS CANCELLED...

AT 744 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED THAT
THE THUNDERSTORM THAT HAD PROMPTED THE WARNING HAD MOVED OUT OF THE
AREA...THUS THE WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED.

LAT...LON 3990 8770 3990 8846 4040 8844 4041 8795
      4049 8793 4050 8767 4040 8765
TIME...MOT...LOC 0049Z 266DEG 32KT 4039 8831 4013 8829
          3993 8839

$$

ILC019-183-300130-
/O.CON.KILX.SV.W.0251.000000T0000Z-080730T0130Z/
CHAMPAIGN-VERMILION-
749 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2008

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 830 PM CDT
FOR WESTERN VERMILION AND CHAMPAIGN COUNTIES...

AT 744 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS CONTINUED TO
DETECT A LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING
WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.  THESE STORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE
EXTENDING FROM 4 MILES NORTHEAST OF FOOSLAND TO 4 MILES NORTHEAST OF
SEYMOUR TO IVESDALE...OR ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 5 MILES SOUTH OF
GIBSON CITY TO 4 MILES WEST OF CHAMPAIGN TO 10 MILES SOUTHEAST OF
MONTICELLO...MOVING EAST AT 37 MPH.

PEOPLE NEAR THESE LOCATIONS ARE STILL THREATENED...
  WILLARD AIRPORT...
  URBANA...
  TOLONO...
  SAVOY...
  THOMASBORO...
  RANTOUL...
  PESOTUM...
  PHILO...
  LUDLOW...
  FLATVILLE...

IF YOU ARE IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM...PREPARE IMMEDIATELY FOR
DAMAGING WINDS...AND DEADLY CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING. PEOPLE OUTSIDE
SHOULD MOVE TO A SHELTER...PREFERABLY INSIDE A STRONG BUILDING BUT
AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

LAT...LON 3990 8770 3990 8846 4040 8844 4041 8795
      4049 8793 4050 8767 4040 8765
TIME...MOT...LOC 0049Z 266DEG 32KT 4039 8831 4013 8829
          3993 8839

$$

AUTEN

000 
WWUS53 KILX 300130
SVSILX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
830 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2008

ILC019-183-300140-
/O.EXP.KILX.SV.W.0251.000000T0000Z-080730T0130Z/
CHAMPAIGN-VERMILION-
830 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2008

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR WESTERN VERMILION AND
CHAMPAIGN COUNTIES EXPIRES AT 830 PM CDT...

AT 829 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED THAT
THE THUNDERSTORM THAT HAD PROMPTED THE WARNING HAD WEAKENED...THUS
THE WARNING HAS BEEN ALLOWED TO EXPIRE.

LAT...LON 3990 8770 3990 8846 4040 8844 4041 8795
      4049 8793 4050 8767 4040 8765
TIME...MOT...LOC 0130Z 266DEG 32KT 4040 8783 4014 8781
          3994 8792

$$

AUTEN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
650 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2008

.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 245 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2008

MAIN CONCERN WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE IS RAIN CHANCES TONIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AS REMNANTS OF TROPICAL STORM DOLLY
TRACK ACROSS THE REGION.

19Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS COLD FRONT PUSHING THROUGH THE UPPER
MIDWEST...WHILE WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE SPINS ACROSS WESTERN
KANSAS. AHEAD OF THESE TWO SYSTEMS...WARM AND VERY MOIST SOUTHERLY
FLOW IS BRINGING 70+ DEWPOINTS INTO CENTRAL ILLINOIS. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED IN ADVANCE OF DOLLY REMNANTS...WITH
CONVECTION NOW SPREADING AS FAR EAST AS NORTHERN MISSOURI.

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY

AS VIGOROUS UPPER LOW CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHERN ONTARIO CONTINUES TO
TRACK EASTWARD...IT WILL HELP EJECT WEAKER UPPER LOW OVER KANSAS
TOWARD CENTRAL ILLINOIS TONIGHT. MODELS ARE INDICATING ENERGY FROM
THIS FEATURE WILL PUSH EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION IN TWO DISTINCT
WAVES...THE FIRST OF WHICH WILL ARRIVE THIS EVENING. NAM-WRF/GFS
GENERALLY IN GOOD AGREEMENT EARLY ON...WITH SHOWERS/STORMS SPREADING
ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE KILX CWA THIS EVENING...THEN FURTHER
EASTWARD INTO EAST-CENTRAL ILLINOIS AFTER MIDNIGHT. PRECIP MAY
TEND TO WANE AND SHIFT SOUTHWARD LATER TONIGHT...BEFORE FINAL
PIECE OF ENERGY APPROACHES FROM THE WEST ON WEDNESDAY. WILL CARRY
LIKELY POPS TONIGHT ACROSS LOCATIONS ALONG AND NORTHWEST OF A
SHELBYVILLE TO CHAMPAIGN LINE...TAPERING TO CHANCE POPS ALONG AND
SOUTH OF I-70.

SECOND WAVE MOVES INTO THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY...AS SYNOPTIC COLD
FRONT DROPS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. EMPHASIS FOR PRECIP WILL BE A
BIT FURTHER SOUTH...MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-72. WILL THEREFORE
CONTINUE WITH LIKELY POPS ACROSS THOSE AREAS...WITH LOWER POPS
FURTHER NORTH IN THE BLOOMINGTON AND PEORIA AREAS. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS INDICATE AMPLE MOISTURE THROUGHOUT THE PROFILE...AS
EVIDENCED BY PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES IN EXCESS OF 2 INCHES. THIS
RICH MOISTURE CONTENT...ALONG WITH GOOD LOW-LEVEL FORCING AND
UPPER SUPPORT...WILL LEAD TO THE POSSIBILITY OF LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...GIVEN PROGRESSIVE
NATURE OF SYSTEM AND THE FACT THAT FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE IS FAIRLY
HIGH...DO NOT THINK A WIDESPREAD FLOODING THREAT IS A CONCERN.
TOTAL RAINFALL WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL GENERALLY BE ON THE ORDER OF
ONE HALF TO ONE INCH...WITH AREAS SOUTH OF I-72 PERHAPS PICKING UP
AS MUCH AS 2 INCHES IN A FEW SPOTS.

AS WAVE MOVES EASTWARD AND FRONT SETTLES SOUTHWARD...RAIN CHANCES
WILL COME TO AN END FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS CENTRAL ILLINOIS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. BASED ON LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE...WILL CARRY
CHANCE POPS SOUTH OF I-72 AND LIKELY POPS SOUTH OF I-70. NAM-WRF
HINTS AT THE POSSIBILITY OF A WEAK WAVE DEVELOPING ALONG THE
BOUNDARY EARLY THURSDAY...WHICH COULD KEEP THE RAIN CHANCES ALIVE
ACROSS THE FAR SE CWA. MEANWHILE...GFS PUSHES ALL THE RAIN SOUTH
OF THE AREA AND DOES NOT FEATURE A WAVE. WILL ONLY MENTION SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS SOUTH OF I-70 FOR THURSDAY...WITH DRY CONDITIONS
EXPECTED ELSEWHERE.

LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

MAIN STORY IN THE EXTENDED WILL BE THE BUILDING HEAT AND HUMIDITY.
12Z 29 JUL MODELS HAVE CONTINUED THE TREND OF THE PAST SEVERAL
MODEL RUNS...INDICATING UPPER RIDGING BUILDING EASTWARD INTO THE
MIDWEST OVER THE WEEKEND AND PERSISTING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. WITH
BETTER RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY NOW IN PLACE...CONFIDENCE IS
GROWING FOR A VERY HOT PERIOD OF WEATHER BEGINNING ON SATURDAY.
WITH 850MB TEMPS PROGGED TO CLIMB INTO THE 23 TO 26C RANGE AND ANY
SIGNIFICANT FRONTAL BOUNDARIES REMAINING WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE
REGION...HAVE RAISED HIGH TEMPS INTO THE MIDDLE 90S THIS WEEKEND.
MODELS TRY TO BREAK DOWN THE RIDGE BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...WITH
A FRONT APPROACHING LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. WILL KEEP THINGS
DRY FOR NOW...AS MODELS OFTEN BREAK DOWN PATTERNS TOO QUICKLY.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED 650 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2008

LINE OF SEVERE CONVECTION CURRENTLY ALONG THE I-55 CORRIDOR WILL
CONTINUE TO TRACK EASTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL ILLINOIS THIS EVENING.
THE STORMS WILL BE ONGOING AT KBMI...KDEC...AND KSPI AT 00Z AND
WILL REACH KCMI BETWEEN 00Z AND 01Z. VISBYS WILL BE REDUCED TO
BETWEEN 1 AND 3SM AND WINDS WILL GUST TO BETWEEN 30 AND 40KT AS
THE STORMS COME THROUGH. BEHIND THE LINE...AN AREA OF LIGHT RAIN
WILL PERSIST FOR AN HOUR OR TWO...BEFORE A BREAK IN THE
PRECIPITATION OCCURS. FROM 03Z THROUGH ABOUT 10Z...LITTLE OR NO
PRECIP WILL OCCUR AND CEILINGS WILL GENERALLY BE AOA 10000FT.
AFTER THAT...A MID-LEVEL WAVE WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST AND
TRIGGER ANOTHER PERIOD OF RAIN WITH A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS.
THIS AREA OF PRECIP WILL IMPACT ALL TAF SITES DURING THE MORNING
HOURS...BUT WILL TEND TO SHIFT TO ONLY THE SOUTHERN TERMINALS BY
AFTERNOON. AT THIS TIME WILL CARRY PREDOMINANT RAIN...WITH ONLY
VCTS MENTIONED UNTIL POTENTIAL CONVECTIVE TRENDS BECOME BETTER
DEFINED.

BARNES
&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
323 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2008

ILZ043>046-052>057-061>063-066>068-071>073-301100-
CHAMPAIGN-CHRISTIAN-CLARK-CLAY-COLES-CRAWFORD-CUMBERLAND-DE WITT-
DOUGLAS-EDGAR-EFFINGHAM-JASPER-LAWRENCE-MACON-MOULTRIE-PIATT-
RICHLAND-SHELBY-VERMILION-
323 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
ILLINOIS...EAST CENTRAL ILLINOIS AND SOUTHEAST ILLINOIS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL BE WELL INTO THE 90S THIS AFTERNOON. IF SKIES
REMAIN MOSTLY SUNNY...HEAT INDEX READINGS AROUND 100 ARE NOT OUT
OF THE QUESTION.

A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL SINK INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH
TONIGHT. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY WITH THE APPROACH
OF THE FRONT...BUT BETTER CHANCES WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL TONIGHT WHEN
THE FRONT PUSHES IN. ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED.
HOWEVER...THE STORMS TONIGHT HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE VERY
HEAVY RAINFALL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

THE SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL LINGER ACROSS THE REGION INTO
THURSDAY...MAINTAINING A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. THE MOST
WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE WEDNESDAY...WITH
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGIC AND CLIMATE
INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE ON THE INTERNET AT
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LINCOLN. THIS ADDRESS IS ALL IN LOWER CASE.

ILZ027>031-036>038-040>042-047>051-301100-
CASS-FULTON-KNOX-LOGAN-MARSHALL-MASON-MCLEAN-MENARD-MORGAN-PEORIA-
SANGAMON-SCHUYLER-SCOTT-STARK-TAZEWELL-WOODFORD-
323 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
ILLINOIS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL BE WELL INTO THE 90S THIS AFTERNOON. IF SKIES
REMAIN MOSTLY SUNNY...HEAT INDEX READINGS AROUND 100 ARE NOT OUT
OF THE QUESTION.

A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL MAKE ITS WAY INTO WEST CENTRAL
ILLINOIS LATE THIS AFTERNOON...BRINGING STRONG WINDS AND HAIL
THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. AS THE THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOVING
INTO LESS FAVORABLE AIR...THEY SHOULD DIMINISH AS MOVING WEST TO
EAST. HOWEVER...AS THE STORMS ARE SLOW MOVING IN NATURE...SOME
LOCALIZED FLOODING COULD BE POSSIBLE UNDER THE STRONGER STORMS.
SOME STORMS COULD REACH SEVERE CRITERIA...BUT THE THREAT SHOULD
LESSEN BEYOND SUNSET.

A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL SINK INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH
TONIGHT. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY WITH THE APPROACH
OF THE FRONT...BUT BETTER CHANCES WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL TONIGHT WHEN
THE FRONT PUSHES IN. ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED.
HOWEVER...THE STORMS TONIGHT HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE VERY
HEAVY RAINFALL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

THE SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL LINGER ACROSS THE REGION INTO
THURSDAY...MAINTAINING A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. THE MOST
WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE WEDNESDAY...WITH
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGIC AND CLIMATE
INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE ON THE INTERNET AT
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LINCOLN. THIS ADDRESS IS ALL IN LOWER CASE.

HJS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
550 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0530 PM     TSTM WND DMG     LEWISTOWN               40.40N 90.16W
07/29/2008                   FULTON             IL   EMERGENCY MNGR

            POWERLINES DOWN...WIND GUST ESTIMATED AT 60 MPH.

&&

SCHAFFER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
620 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0535 PM     TSTM WND DMG     CUBA                    40.49N 90.19W
07/29/2008                   FULTON             IL   EMERGENCY MNGR

            TWO LARGE TREES BLOWN DOWN.

&&

SCHAFFER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
641 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0638 PM     TSTM WND GST     ELKHART                 40.02N 89.48W
07/29/2008  E70 MPH          LOGAN              IL   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

SCHAFFER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
701 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0653 PM     TSTM WND GST     ROANOKE                 40.80N 89.20W
07/29/2008  M68 MPH          WOODFORD           IL   EMERGENCY MNGR

            SUSTAINED WINDS OF 50 TO 55...WITH A MEASURED WIND GUST
            OF 68 MPH AT THE ROANOKE EOC

&&

SCHAFFER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
720 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0530 PM     TSTM WND DMG     LEWISTOWN               40.40N 90.16W
07/29/2008                   FULTON             IL   EMERGENCY MNGR

            TREE DOWN ON THE ROOF OF THE FIRE DEPT

&&

SCHAFFER