Severe Thunderstorm Warning 244, NWS Lincoln, IL

000 
WWUS53 KILX 292322
SVSILX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
622 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2008

ILC057-292332-
/O.CAN.KILX.SV.W.0244.000000T0000Z-080729T2345Z/
FULTON-
622 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2008

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR EASTERN FULTON COUNTY IS
CANCELLED...

AT 619 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED THAT
THE THUNDERSTORM THAT HAD PROMPTED THE WARNING HAD MOVED OUT OF THE
AREA...THUS THE WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED.

LAT...LON 4019 8929 4016 8976 4053 8978 4065 8935
      4059 8934 4058 8935 4057 8934
TIME...MOT...LOC 2322Z 258DEG 30KT 4042 8949

$$

ILC107-125-179-292345-
/O.CON.KILX.SV.W.0244.000000T0000Z-080729T2345Z/
LOGAN-MASON-TAZEWELL-
622 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2008

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 645 PM CDT
FOR TAZEWELL...NORTHEASTERN MASON AND NORTHWESTERN LOGAN COUNTIES...

AT 619 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS CONTINUED TO
DETECT A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS IN
EXCESS OF 60 MPH.  THIS STORM WAS LOCATED 3 MILES NORTH OF DELAVAN...
OR ABOUT 12 MILES SOUTHEAST OF PEKIN...MOVING EAST AT 34 MPH.

PEOPLE NEAR THESE LOCATIONS ARE STILL THREATENED...
  HOPEDALE...
  MORTON...
  MACKINAW...
  ARMINGTON...

LAT...LON 4019 8929 4016 8976 4053 8978 4065 8935
      4059 8934 4058 8935 4057 8934
TIME...MOT...LOC 2322Z 258DEG 30KT 4042 8949

$$

000 
WWUS53 KILX 292340
SVSILX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
640 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2008

ILC107-125-179-292351-
/O.EXP.KILX.SV.W.0244.000000T0000Z-080729T2345Z/
LOGAN-MASON-TAZEWELL-
641 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2008

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR TAZEWELL...NORTHEASTERN MASON
AND NORTHWESTERN LOGAN COUNTIES EXPIRES AT 645 PM CDT...

AT 636 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED THAT
THE THUNDERSTORM THAT HAD PROMPTED THE WARNING HAD MOVED OUT OF THE
AREA...THUS THE WARNING HAS BEEN ALLOWED TO EXPIRE.

LAT...LON 4019 8929 4016 8976 4053 8978 4065 8935
      4059 8934 4058 8935 4057 8934
TIME...MOT...LOC 2341Z 258DEG 30KT 4045 8929

$$

AUTEN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
245 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2008

.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 245 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2008

MAIN CONCERN WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE IS RAIN CHANCES TONIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AS REMNANTS OF TROPICAL STORM DOLLY
TRACK ACROSS THE REGION.

19Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS COLD FRONT PUSHING THROUGH THE UPPER
MIDWEST...WHILE WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE SPINS ACROSS WESTERN
KANSAS. AHEAD OF THESE TWO SYSTEMS...WARM AND VERY MOIST SOUTHERLY
FLOW IS BRINGING 70+ DEWPOINTS INTO CENTRAL ILLINOIS. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED IN ADVANCE OF DOLLY REMNANTS...WITH
CONVECTION NOW SPREADING AS FAR EAST AS NORTHERN MISSOURI.

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY

AS VIGOROUS UPPER LOW CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHERN ONTARIO CONTINUES TO
TRACK EASTWARD...IT WILL HELP EJECT WEAKER UPPER LOW OVER KANSAS
TOWARD CENTRAL ILLINOIS TONIGHT. MODELS ARE INDICATING ENERGY FROM
THIS FEATURE WILL PUSH EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION IN TWO DISTINCT
WAVES...THE FIRST OF WHICH WILL ARRIVE THIS EVENING. NAM-WRF/GFS
GENERALLY IN GOOD AGREEMENT EARLY ON...WITH SHOWERS/STORMS SPREADING
ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE KILX CWA THIS EVENING...THEN FURTHER
EASTWARD INTO EAST-CENTRAL ILLINOIS AFTER MIDNIGHT. PRECIP MAY
TEND TO WANE AND SHIFT SOUTHWARD LATER TONIGHT...BEFORE FINAL
PIECE OF ENERGY APPROACHES FROM THE WEST ON WEDNESDAY. WILL CARRY
LIKELY POPS TONIGHT ACROSS LOCATIONS ALONG AND NORTHWEST OF A
SHELBYVILLE TO CHAMPAIGN LINE...TAPERING TO CHANCE POPS ALONG AND
SOUTH OF I-70.

SECOND WAVE MOVES INTO THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY...AS SYNOPTIC COLD
FRONT DROPS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. EMPHASIS FOR PRECIP WILL BE A
BIT FURTHER SOUTH...MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-72. WILL THEREFORE
CONTINUE WITH LIKELY POPS ACROSS THOSE AREAS...WITH LOWER POPS
FURTHER NORTH IN THE BLOOMINGTON AND PEORIA AREAS. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS INDICATE AMPLE MOISTURE THROUGHOUT THE PROFILE...AS
EVIDENCED BY PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES IN EXCESS OF 2 INCHES. THIS
RICH MOISTURE CONTENT...ALONG WITH GOOD LOW-LEVEL FORCING AND
UPPER SUPPORT...WILL LEAD TO THE POSSIBILITY OF LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...GIVEN PROGRESSIVE
NATURE OF SYSTEM AND THE FACT THAT FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE IS FAIRLY
HIGH...DO NOT THINK A WIDESPREAD FLOODING THREAT IS A CONCERN.
TOTAL RAINFALL WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL GENERALLY BE ON THE ORDER OF
ONE HALF TO ONE INCH...WITH AREAS SOUTH OF I-72 PERHAPS PICKING UP
AS MUCH AS 2 INCHES IN A FEW SPOTS.

AS WAVE MOVES EASTWARD AND FRONT SETTLES SOUTHWARD...RAIN CHANCES
WILL COME TO AN END FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS CENTRAL ILLINOIS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. BASED ON LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE...WILL CARRY
CHANCE POPS SOUTH OF I-72 AND LIKELY POPS SOUTH OF I-70. NAM-WRF
HINTS AT THE POSSIBILITY OF A WEAK WAVE DEVELOPING ALONG THE
BOUNDARY EARLY THURSDAY...WHICH COULD KEEP THE RAIN CHANCES ALIVE
ACROSS THE FAR SE CWA. MEANWHILE...GFS PUSHES ALL THE RAIN SOUTH
OF THE AREA AND DOES NOT FEATURE A WAVE. WILL ONLY MENTION SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS SOUTH OF I-70 FOR THURSDAY...WITH DRY CONDITIONS
EXPECTED ELSEWHERE.

LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

MAIN STORY IN THE EXTENDED WILL BE THE BUILDING HEAT AND HUMIDITY.
12Z 29 JUL MODELS HAVE CONTINUED THE TREND OF THE PAST SEVERAL
MODEL RUNS...INDICATING UPPER RIDGING BUILDING EASTWARD INTO THE
MIDWEST OVER THE WEEKEND AND PERSISTING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. WITH
BETTER RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY NOW IN PLACE...CONFIDENCE IS
GROWING FOR A VERY HOT PERIOD OF WEATHER BEGINNING ON SATURDAY.
WITH 850MB TEMPS PROGGED TO CLIMB INTO THE 23 TO 26C RANGE AND ANY
SIGNIFICANT FRONTAL BOUNDARIES REMAINING WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE
REGION...HAVE RAISED HIGH TEMPS INTO THE MIDDLE 90S THIS WEEKEND.
MODELS TRY TO BREAK DOWN THE RIDGE BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...WITH
A FRONT APPROACHING LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. WILL KEEP THINGS
DRY FOR NOW...AS MODELS OFTEN BREAK DOWN PATTERNS TOO QUICKLY.

BARNES
&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED 1251 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2008
PRECIPITATION TRIGGERS HAVE BEEN RATHER SUBTLE FOR THE REGION IN
THE NEXT 24 HRS. FORECAST A BIT PROBLEMATIC IN PINNING DOWN TIME
AND LOCATION. WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE NRN PORTIONS SHOULD BRING
PRECIP IN THE FORM OF TS BEFORE MIDNIGHT...AND SECOND WAVE SHOULD
BE CONFINED MORE TO THE SRN TERMINALS. HAVE TRIED TO HASH THAT OUT
IN THE TAFS WITH PIA AND BMI LEFT WITH SHOWERS...AND THEN VCTS
TOMORROW MORNING. AS FOR ANY PRECIP THIS AFTERNOON...GOING TO KEEP
IT TO VCTS AS LINE OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE MOVING ACROSS THE MISS
RIVER VALLEY...WITH SOME VERY WEAK RADAR RETURNS. AFTER
MIDNIGHT...CHANCES FOR THUNDER GO UP CONSIDERABLY FOR THE REGION.

HJS
&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
323 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2008

ILZ043>046-052>057-061>063-066>068-071>073-301100-
CHAMPAIGN-CHRISTIAN-CLARK-CLAY-COLES-CRAWFORD-CUMBERLAND-DE WITT-
DOUGLAS-EDGAR-EFFINGHAM-JASPER-LAWRENCE-MACON-MOULTRIE-PIATT-
RICHLAND-SHELBY-VERMILION-
323 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
ILLINOIS...EAST CENTRAL ILLINOIS AND SOUTHEAST ILLINOIS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL BE WELL INTO THE 90S THIS AFTERNOON. IF SKIES
REMAIN MOSTLY SUNNY...HEAT INDEX READINGS AROUND 100 ARE NOT OUT
OF THE QUESTION.

A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL SINK INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH
TONIGHT. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY WITH THE APPROACH
OF THE FRONT...BUT BETTER CHANCES WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL TONIGHT WHEN
THE FRONT PUSHES IN. ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED.
HOWEVER...THE STORMS TONIGHT HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE VERY
HEAVY RAINFALL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

THE SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL LINGER ACROSS THE REGION INTO
THURSDAY...MAINTAINING A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. THE MOST
WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE WEDNESDAY...WITH
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGIC AND CLIMATE
INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE ON THE INTERNET AT
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LINCOLN. THIS ADDRESS IS ALL IN LOWER CASE.

ILZ027>031-036>038-040>042-047>051-301100-
CASS-FULTON-KNOX-LOGAN-MARSHALL-MASON-MCLEAN-MENARD-MORGAN-PEORIA-
SANGAMON-SCHUYLER-SCOTT-STARK-TAZEWELL-WOODFORD-
323 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
ILLINOIS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL BE WELL INTO THE 90S THIS AFTERNOON. IF SKIES
REMAIN MOSTLY SUNNY...HEAT INDEX READINGS AROUND 100 ARE NOT OUT
OF THE QUESTION.

A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL MAKE ITS WAY INTO WEST CENTRAL
ILLINOIS LATE THIS AFTERNOON...BRINGING STRONG WINDS AND HAIL
THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. AS THE THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOVING
INTO LESS FAVORABLE AIR...THEY SHOULD DIMINISH AS MOVING WEST TO
EAST. HOWEVER...AS THE STORMS ARE SLOW MOVING IN NATURE...SOME
LOCALIZED FLOODING COULD BE POSSIBLE UNDER THE STRONGER STORMS.
SOME STORMS COULD REACH SEVERE CRITERIA...BUT THE THREAT SHOULD
LESSEN BEYOND SUNSET.

A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL SINK INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH
TONIGHT. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY WITH THE APPROACH
OF THE FRONT...BUT BETTER CHANCES WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL TONIGHT WHEN
THE FRONT PUSHES IN. ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED.
HOWEVER...THE STORMS TONIGHT HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE VERY
HEAVY RAINFALL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

THE SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL LINGER ACROSS THE REGION INTO
THURSDAY...MAINTAINING A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. THE MOST
WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE WEDNESDAY...WITH
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGIC AND CLIMATE
INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE ON THE INTERNET AT
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LINCOLN. THIS ADDRESS IS ALL IN LOWER CASE.

HJS