Severe Thunderstorm Warning 221, NWS Lincoln, IL

000 
WWUS53 KILX 211151
SVSILX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
651 AM CDT MON JUL 21 2008

ILC039-147-211200-
/O.CON.KILX.SV.W.0220.000000T0000Z-080721T1200Z/
DE WITT-PIATT-
651 AM CDT MON JUL 21 2008

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 700 AM CDT
FOR NORTHERN PIATT AND EASTERN DE WITT COUNTIES...

AT 649 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS IN
EXCESS OF 60 MPH.  THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR LANE...OR ABOUT 6
MILES EAST OF CLINTON...MOVING EAST AT 34 MPH.

PEOPLE NEAR THESE LOCATIONS ARE STILL THREATENED...
  DE LAND...
  GALESVILLE...
  LODGE...
  WHITE HEATH...

THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 72 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 166 AND 172.

THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 74 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 161 AND 164.

IF YOU ARE IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM...PREPARE IMMEDIATELY FOR
DAMAGING WINDS...AND DEADLY CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING. PEOPLE OUTSIDE
SHOULD MOVE TO A SHELTER...PREFERABLY INSIDE A STRONG BUILDING BUT
AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

LAT...LON 4006 8849 4005 8851 4005 8875 4006 8876
      4006 8891 4019 8890 4024 8885 4024 8854
      4011 8848
TIME...MOT...LOC 1151Z 278DEG 30KT 4014 8882

$$

SMITH

000 
WWUS53 KILX 211203
SVSILX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
702 AM CDT MON JUL 21 2008

ILC143-211212-
/O.EXP.KILX.SV.W.0221.000000T0000Z-080721T1200Z/
PEORIA-
702 AM CDT MON JUL 21 2008

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTHERN PEORIA COUNTY EXPIRES
AT 700 AM CDT...

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR CENTRAL AND 
SOUTHERN PEORIA COUNTY UNTIL 715 AM.

AT 658 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED THAT
THE THUNDERSTORM THAT HAD PROMPTED THE WARNING HAD MOVED OUT OF THE
AREA...THUS THE WARNING HAS BEEN ALLOWED TO EXPIRE.

LAT...LON 4097 8947 4086 8951 4084 8954 4085 8957
      4076 8999 4090 8987 4098 8976
TIME...MOT...LOC 1150Z 277DEG 58KT 4086 8951

$$

BARKER

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
217 AM CDT MON JUL 21 2008

.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 217 AM CDT MON JUL 21 2008

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS CONTINUE TO REVOLVE AROUND CONVECTION AND
POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL TODAY AND TONIGHT.

SYNOPTIC SET-UP REMAINS UNCHANGED FROM THE PAST FEW DAYS...WITH
STATIONARY BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM THE GREAT LAKES WESTWARD INTO
NEBRASKA. VERY WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS IN PLACE SOUTH OF THIS
BOUNDARY...AS CHARACTERIZED BY DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 70S ACROSS
CENTRAL ILLINOIS. ALOFT...RIDGE REMAINS ANCHORED OVER THE CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN PLAINS...WHILE W/NW FLOW PREVAILS ACROSS THE MIDWEST.
NUMEROUS WAVES ARE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE FLOW...WITH ONE CURRENTLY
TRACKING ACROSS SOUTH DAKOTA/NEBRASKA AND ANOTHER POISED FURTHER
NORTH ACROSS SOUTHERN MANITOBA.

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

LARGE COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS IS CURRENTLY ONGOING ACROSS EASTERN
NEBRASKA INTO WESTERN IOWA...IN ASSOCIATION WITH APPROACHING UPPER
WAVE AND 30 T0 35KT 850MB JET STREAK. THIS FEATURE IS TRACKING
E/SE ALONG A THETA-E AXIS STRETCHING FROM NEBRASKA TOWARD WEST-CENTRAL
ILLINOIS. CORFIDI VECTORS INDICATE AN E/SE TRAJECTORY...AND LATEST
SATELLITE/RADAR LOOPS CONFIRM THIS MOVEMENT AS WELL. ADDITIONAL
CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED FURTHER EAST ACROSS CENTRAL IOWA AND THIS
WILL LIKELY CONGEAL WITH THE MAIN STORM COMPLEX OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS. 00Z 21 JUL MODELS HANDLE THE CONVECTION FAIRLY WELL...ALTHOUGH
BASED ON LATEST OBS...THINK THEY MAY NOT BE DROPPING IT FAR ENOUGH
TO THE SOUTHEAST. WILL CARRY CATEGORICAL POPS THIS MORNING ALONG
AND WEST OF THE I-55 CORRIDOR...WITH LIKELY POPS FURTHER EAST TO
THE INDIANA BORDER. WILL MAINTAIN ONLY CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE FAR
SOUTHEAST CWA AT THIS TIME. ALL MODELS PUSH THE MCS INTO INDIANA
BY AROUND MIDDAY...LEADING TO A LULL IN THE PRECIP ACROSS CENTRAL
ILLINOIS. BIG QUESTION WILL BE WHEN AND WHERE ADDITIONAL CONVECTION
WILL FIRE LATER IN THE AFTERNOON. 4KM NMM-WRF PUSHES AN OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY THROUGH THE ENTIRE CWA AND AS A RESULT NO STORMS RE-DEVELOP.
MEANWHILE...24KM WRF FROM THE U OF I SUGGESTS DEVELOPMENT ON AN
OLD OUTFLOW BOUNDARY STRETCHING FROM NEAR JACKSONVILLE TO AROUND
EFFINGHAM AFTER 21Z. THINK THIS IS A MORE PLAUSIBLE SOLUTION...SO
WILL FOLLOW IT MORE CLOSELY. GIVEN UNCERTAINTY OF EXACT BOUNDARY
LOCATIONS...WILL CARRY CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE BOARD THIS AFTERNOON.

LOW-LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS AGAIN TONIGHT...RESULTING IN THE DEVELOPMENT
OF ANOTHER MCS. BASED ON BEST THERMAL/MOISTURE ADVECTION
PARAMETERS...MOST FAVORED GENESIS LOCATION WOULD BE ACROSS
NORTHERN MISSOURI...WITH AN E/SE TRACK ALONG THETA-E AXIS/OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY INTO ILLINOIS BY LATE EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
NAM-WRF SEEMS TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THIS SCENARIO...SO WILL
FOCUS HIGHEST POPS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWA...MAINLY ALONG AND
SOUTH OF A JACKSONVILLE TO MATTOON LINE WHERE LIKELY POPS ARE IN
ORDER. FURTHER NORTH...POPS WILL TAPER DOWN TO LOW CHANCE ACROSS
THE FAR NORTH...WHERE FORCING WILL BE MUCH WEAKER.

ALL MODELS ARE SUGGESTING SYNOPTIC BOUNDARY WILL BE A BIT SLOWER
IN IT SOUTHWARD PROGRESSION THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT...WHICH WILL
ALLOW RAIN CHANCES TO LINGER ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL ILLINOIS INTO
TUESDAY. HAVE RAISED POPS INTO THE CHANCE CATEGORY ALONG AND SOUTH
OF I-72...WITH ONLY SLIGHT CHANCES FURTHER NORTH. FRONT FINALLY
SAGS SOUTHWARD INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTHWARD OUT OF CANADA. THIS
WILL BRING A COOLER AND LESS HUMID AIRMASS INTO CENTRAL ILLINOIS
FOR MID-WEEK...WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S AND OVERNIGHT
LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S.

LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE OVERALL
SYNOPTIC PATTERN FOR THE END OF THE WEEK...BUT DISAGREE CONCERNING
THE FINER DETAILS. BOTH GFS AND ECMWF MAINTAIN AN UNSEASONABLY
DEEP UPPER LOW OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES INTO THURSDAY...BUT
THEN LIFT THIS FEATURE TO THE NORTHEAST ON FRIDAY. ONCE FLOW
BECOMES MORE W/SW...OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LIFT BACK
NORTHWARD...POTENTIALLY BRINGING RAIN CHANCES BACK INTO CENTRAL
ILLINOIS THURSDAY/FRIDAY. ECMWF IS MUCH MORE BULLISH WITH ITS QPF
FIELD...WHILE GFS REMAINS LARGELY DRY BOTH DAYS. GIVEN
UNCERTAINTY...SEE NO REASON TO RAISE POPS FROM THE CURRENT SLIGHT
CHANCES ALREADY IN THE GRIDS. BETTER CHANCE FOR RAIN POTENTIALLY
SETTING UP LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...AS BOTH MODELS ONCE AGAIN
DROP A DEEP UPPER LOW INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES...PUSHING
ANOTHER STRONG COLD FRONT THROUGH CENTRAL ILLINOIS.

BARNES
&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED 1201 AM CDT MON JUL 21 2008

WILL START TAFS OUT WITH 5SM BR AS TEMPS CONTINUE TO COOL CLOSE TO
VERY HIGH DEWPOINTS. CONVECTION IS LIKELY TO DEVELOP ALONG A
BOUNDARY ACROSS PARTS OF IOWA WITH CONVECTION THEN ROLLING DOWN
INTO THE AREA AFTER 09Z. HAVE KEPT VCTS BUT HAVE ADDED 2HR TEMPO
GROUP FOR EARLY MORNING FOR WHEN THINK BEST CHC OF THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE. SHOULD BE A BREAK IN PCPN LATE MORINING THEN COULD HAVE
SOME THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP AGAIN IN AFTERNOON DEPENDING ON WHERE
ANY OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES SET UP TOMORROW. WILL KEEP VCTS IN
AFTERNOON AT ALL SITES FOR THAT. BEST OUTFLOW BOUNDARY SHOULD BE
SOUTH OF PIA AND BMI AND COULD BE NEAR SPI...DEC AND CMI. SO HAVE
KEPT ANOTHER VCTS FOR THOSE THREE SITES FOR THE EVENING TIME
FRAME. WINDS WILL REMAIN VARIABLE AND RELATIVELY LIGHT NEXT 24HRS.

AUTEN
&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
600 AM CDT MON JUL 21 2008

ILZ027>031-036>038-041>046-048-053-055-057-221100-
CHAMPAIGN-DE WITT-DOUGLAS-EDGAR-FULTON-KNOX-LOGAN-MACON-MARSHALL-
MASON-MCLEAN-MENARD-PEORIA-PIATT-STARK-TAZEWELL-VERMILION-
WOODFORD-
600 AM CDT MON JUL 21 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
ILLINOIS AND EAST CENTRAL ILLINOIS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

OCCASIONAL THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT CENTRAL ILLINOIS THIS
MORNING...MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF A RUSHVILLE...TO LINCOLN...TO
PARIS LINE. SOME OF THE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WINDS
IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH...PENNY SIZE HAIL...AND TORRENTIAL RAINFALL.
ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS MAY RE-DEVELOP DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING ALONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES LEFT BEHIND BY THE MORNING
STORMS.

THE COMBINATION OF AIR TEMPERATURES AROUND 90 DEGREES ALONG WITH
HIGH HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL PRODUCE HEAT INDEX VALUES IN THE MIDDLE
TO UPPER 90S THIS AFTERNOON. DRESS PROPERLY FOR THE HEAT TODAY
AND DRINK PLENTY OF FLUIDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY...AS A COLD FRONT
SLOWLY DROPS SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE STATE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED TODAY...ESPECIALLY
DURING THE MORNING.

ILZ040-047-049>052-054-056-061>063-066>068-071>073-221100-
CASS-CHRISTIAN-CLARK-CLAY-COLES-CRAWFORD-CUMBERLAND-EFFINGHAM-
JASPER-LAWRENCE-MORGAN-MOULTRIE-RICHLAND-SANGAMON-SCHUYLER-SCOTT-
SHELBY-
600 AM CDT MON JUL 21 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
ILLINOIS...EAST CENTRAL ILLINOIS AND SOUTHEAST ILLINOIS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG AN OLD OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST ILLINOIS THIS
AFTERNOON. THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER...WITH THE
MAIN THREATS FROM THE STORMS BEING DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE
HAIL...AND TORRENTIAL RAINFALL.

THE COMBINATION OF AIR TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 90S
ALONG WITH HIGH HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL PRODUCE HEAT INDEX VALUES NEAR
100 DEGREES THIS AFTERNOON. DRESS PROPERLY FOR THE HEAT TODAY AND
DRINK PLENTY OF FLUIDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY...AS A COLD FRONT
SLOWLY DROPS SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE STATE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED TODAY.

BARNES

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
549 AM CDT MON JUL 21 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0510 AM     TSTM WND DMG     CANTON                  40.56N 90.04W
07/21/2008                   FULTON             IL   EMERGENCY MNGR

            INSIDE THE CITY OF CANTON REPORTS OF TREES AND TREE LIMBS
            DOWN ACROSS THE CITY. POWER OUTAGES ARE ALSO REPORTED.

&&

OUSLEY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
616 AM CDT MON JUL 21 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0615 AM     TSTM WND GST     ALTONA                  41.12N 90.16W
07/21/2008  E60 MPH          KNOX               IL   CO-OP OBSERVER

&&

OUSLEY