Severe Thunderstorm Warning 19, NWS Lincoln, IL

000 
WWUS53 KILX 041328
SVSILX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
728 AM CST MON FEB 4 2008

ILC095-041338-
/O.CAN.KILX.SV.W.0019.000000T0000Z-080204T1345Z/
KNOX-
728 AM CST MON FEB 4 2008

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTHEASTERN KNOX COUNTY IS
CANCELLED...

AT 725 AM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED THAT
THE THUNDERSTORM THAT HAD PROMPTED THE WARNING HAD MOVED OUT OF THE
AREA...THUS THE WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED.

LAT...LON 4124 8964 4122 8964 4109 8996 4116 8997
      4116 8989 4123 8989 4125 8987 4125 8966
TIME...MOT...LOC 1328Z 240DEG 36KT 4117 8987

$$

ILC175-041345-
/O.CON.KILX.SV.W.0019.000000T0000Z-080204T1345Z/
STARK-
728 AM CST MON FEB 4 2008

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 745 AM CST
FOR NORTHERN STARK COUNTY...

AT 725 AM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS CONTINUED TO
DETECT A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING NICKEL SIZE HAIL. 
THIS STORM WAS LOCATED 4 MILES SOUTHWEST OF ELMIRA...OR ABOUT 6 MILES
SOUTH OF KEWANEE...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH.

PEOPLE NEAR THESE LOCATIONS ARE STILL THREATENED...
  OSCEOLA...
  LOMBARDVILLE...

IF YOU ARE IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM...PREPARE IMMEDIATELY FOR
DESTRUCTIVE HAIL...AND DEADLY CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING. PEOPLE
OUTSIDE SHOULD MOVE TO A SHELTER...PREFERABLY INSIDE A STRONG
BUILDING BUT AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

LAT...LON 4124 8964 4122 8964 4109 8996 4116 8997
      4116 8989 4123 8989 4125 8987 4125 8966
TIME...MOT...LOC 1328Z 240DEG 36KT 4117 8987

$$

BAK

000 
WWUS53 KILX 041345
SVSILX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
746 AM CST MON FEB 4 2008

ILC175-041356-
/O.EXP.KILX.SV.W.0019.000000T0000Z-080204T1345Z/
STARK-
746 AM CST MON FEB 4 2008

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTHERN STARK COUNTY EXPIRES
AT 745 AM CST...

AT 742 AM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED THAT
THE THUNDERSTORM THAT HAD PROMPTED THE WARNING HAD MOVED OUT OF THE
AREA...THUS THE WARNING HAS BEEN ALLOWED TO EXPIRE.

LAT...LON 4124 8964 4122 8964 4109 8996 4116 8997
      4116 8989 4123 8989 4125 8987 4125 8966
TIME...MOT...LOC 1328Z 240DEG 36KT 4117 8987

$$

BAK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
543 AM CST MON FEB 4 2008

.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 259 AM CST MON FEB 4 2008

NUMEROUS CHALLENGES WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE...INCLUDING DENSE
FOG TODAY...HEAVY RAIN THREAT TUESDAY...AND POTENTIAL ACCUMULATING
SNOW TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY.

LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS
COLORADO...WITH WARM FRONT EXTENDING EASTWARD INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY. ALONG AND NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY...WIDESPREAD FOG HAS
DEVELOPED ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL ILLINOIS...THANKS TO A VERY MOIST
BOUNDARY LAYER AND LIGHT SURFACE WINDS. ALOFT...TROUGH CONTINUES
TO DIG ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS...WHILE RIDGING DEVELOPS ACROSS
THE EAST.

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

FIRST ISSUE TO DEAL WITH WILL BE THE FOG. WARM FRONT HAS BEEN
NEARLY STATIONARY FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT AND HAS BARELY LIFTED
NORTH OF LAWRENCEVILLE AS OF 08Z. DESPITE DEVELOPING UPPER
RIDGING...THINK MODELS ARE BRINGING THE FRONT NORTHWARD A BIT TOO
QUICKLY TODAY. FRONT SHOULD REACH THE I-72 TOWARD MIDDAY...THEN
LIFT INTO THE FAR NORTHERN KILX CWA DURING THE AFTERNOON. GIVEN
THIS SLOWER MOVEMENT...FOG WILL LIKELY BE A PROBLEM THROUGHOUT THE
MORNING ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA AND MAY PERSIST WELL INTO THE
AFTERNOON ALONG AND NORTH OF I-74. HAVE THEREFORE ISSUED A DENSE
FOG ADVISORY THROUGH NOON FOR THE ENTIRE CWA. TEMPS WILL ALSO BE
PROBLEMATIC...AS A TIGHT NORTH-SOUTH GRADIENT WILL EXIST. AREAS
ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-70 WILL RISE INTO THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER
60S...WHILE LOCATIONS ALONG AND NORTH OF I-74 WILL STRUGGLE TO
RISE OUT OF THE 40S. PRECIP CHANCES TODAY APPEAR TO BE
MINIMAL...AS SIGNIFICANT FORCING WILL BE LACKING. WILL CARRY 30
POPS ACROSS THE BOARD...WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER POPS ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO A SHORT-WAVE EXPECTED TO TRACK
OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND ACROSS IOWA. AS THIS FEATURE LIFTS
INTO THE GREAT LAKES...IT WILL HELP PULL A COLD FRONT TOWARD
ILLINOIS TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY. WITH THE ENTIRE CWA FIRMLY IN THE
WARM SECTOR TONIGHT AND A DECENT LLJ DEVELOPING...THINK LIFT ALONG
AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL TRIGGER SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE E/SE CWA. WILL THEREFORE
INCLUDE CHANCE POPS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...WITH LIKELY POPS
ALONG AND EAST OF I-57.

FRONT STALLS OUT ACROSS ILLINOIS ON TUESDAY...AS IT BECOMES
PARALLEL WITH THE UPPER FLOW. AS WESTERN CONUS TROUGH TRANSLATES
EASTWARD...SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS WILL TAKE PLACE ACROSS OKLAHOMA
EARLY IN THE DAY. THIS LOW IS THEN PROGGED TO DEEPEN AND TRACK
NORTHEASTWARD INTO SOUTHERN ILLINOIS BY 00Z WED. AS A
RESULT...RAIN WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA...ESPECIALLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON. INSTABILITY PARAMETERS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
THUNDER...PARTICULARLY ALONG AND EAST OF I-55. LATEST CONVECTIVE
OUTLOOK FROM SPC EVEN INDICATES RISK FOR SEVERE ACROSS SOUTHEAST
ILLINOIS.

AS LOW TRACKS INTO INDIANA...COLDER AIR WILL BE DRAWN INTO CENTRAL
ILLINOIS TUESDAY EVENING...RESULTING IN THE RAIN GRADUALLY
TRANSITIONING TO SNOW FROM WEST TO EAST. 00Z 04 FEB MODELS ARE
SUGGESTING DEFORMATION ZONE SNOW SETTING UP ACROSS IOWA AND
NORTHERN ILLINOIS TUESDAY AFTERNOON...WHICH WILL THEN SHIFT ACROSS
THE NORTHWEST CWA TUESDAY NIGHT. POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR BETWEEN ONE
AND THREE INCHES OF SNOW...MAINLY ALONG AND NORTHWEST OF THE I-55
CORRIDOR. HAVE ADJUSTED POPS AND WEATHER GRIDS TO REFLECT THIS.
GIVEN AMPLIFYING NATURE OF SYSTEM...LIGHT SNOW WILL LIKELY LINGER
INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING...WITH CLOUDS PERSISTING UNTIL EVENING.

LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BRINGING
CLEARING SKIES AND COLDER CONDITIONS. AFTER THAT...ACTIVE WEATHER
PATTERN CONTINUES INTO THE WEEKEND...AS A SERIES OF WEAK SYSTEMS
SKIRT THROUGH THE REGION. FIRST DISTURBANCE IS STILL SLATED TO
PASS THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT...HOWEVER IT STILL LOOKS
WEAK AND RATHER MOISTURE STARVED...SO WILL ONLY MENTION SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS AT THIS TIME. NO FURTHER CHANGES NEEDED TO THE
EXTENDED.

BARNES
&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED 543 AM CST MON FEB 4 2008

LIFR/IRF CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE 12Z TAF PERIOD. A
WARM FRONT WILL SLOWLY LIFT ACROSS THE TERMINALS TODAY. THE LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE...AS WELL AS THE SNOW
MELT THAT WILL OCCUR WITH THE WARMER TEMPERATURES...SHOULD KEEP
CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES QUITE LOW. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING
ALONG THE BOUNDARY TONIGHT WILL BRING A SOMEWHAT BETTER CHANCE OF
SHOWERS TO THE REGION THAN WILL BE SEEN TODAY...BUT CHANCES ARE TOO
LOW TO GO ABOVE VCSH AT ANY ONE LOCATION. BROUGHT
CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES UP A BIT TONIGHT WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
PRECIPITATION IN THE VICINITY.

BAK
&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR ILZ027>031-036>038-
040>057-061>063-066>068-071>073.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
708 AM CST MON FEB 4 2008

ILZ027>031-036-037-040-041-047-049-050-051200-
CASS-FULTON-KNOX-MARSHALL-MASON-MORGAN-PEORIA-SCHUYLER-SCOTT-
STARK-TAZEWELL-WOODFORD-
708 AM CST MON FEB 4 2008

...DENSE FOG ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON CST TODAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
ILLINOIS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A VERY MOIST LOW LEVEL AIRMASS...LIGHT WINDS...AND THE APPROACH
OF A WARM FRONT WILL CONTRIBUTE TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF DENSE FOG
ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING.

VISIBILITIES OF ONE QUARTER MILE OR LESS ARE EXPECTED THIS
MORNING IN MANY LOCATIONS. SOME IMPROVEMENT IN VISIBILITY IS
EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON...BUT LIGHTER FOG WILL LINGER THROUGH THE
DAY.

A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY AND TONIGHT AS A FEW UPPER
DISTURBANCES MOVE THROUGH THE REGION. ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS ARE
NOT EXPECTED...BUT THE STORMS MAY PRODUCE SMALL HAIL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

A STRONG AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION ON TUESDAY.
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE PASSAGE OF THIS
SYSTEM. MINOR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE ON THE BACK SIDE OF
THE SYSTEM TUESDAY NIGHT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED THROUGH TONIGHT.

ILZ038-042>046-048-051>057-061-051200-
CHAMPAIGN-CHRISTIAN-COLES-DE WITT-DOUGLAS-EDGAR-LOGAN-MACON-
MCLEAN-MENARD-MOULTRIE-PIATT-SANGAMON-SHELBY-VERMILION-
708 AM CST MON FEB 4 2008

...DENSE FOG ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON CST TODAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
ILLINOIS AND EAST CENTRAL ILLINOIS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A VERY MOIST LOW LEVEL AIRMASS...LIGHT WINDS...AND THE APPROACH
OF A WARM FRONT WILL CONTRIBUTE TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF DENSE FOG
ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING.

VISIBILITIES OF ONE QUARTER MILE OR LESS ARE EXPECTED THIS
MORNING IN MANY LOCATIONS. SOME IMPROVEMENT IN VISIBILITY IS
EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON...BUT LIGHTER FOG WILL LINGER THROUGH THE
DAY.

A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY AND TONIGHT AS A FEW UPPER
DISTURBANCES MOVE THROUGH THE REGION. ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS ARE
NOT EXPECTED...BUT THE STORMS MAY PRODUCE SMALL HAIL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

THE STRONG AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION TUESDAY.
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE PASSAGE OF THIS
SYSTEM. MINOR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE ON THE BACK SIDE OF
THE SYSTEM TUESDAY NIGHT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED THROUGH TONIGHT.

ILZ062-063-066>068-071>073-051200-
CLARK-CLAY-CRAWFORD-CUMBERLAND-EFFINGHAM-JASPER-LAWRENCE-RICHLAND-
708 AM CST MON FEB 4 2008

...DENSE FOG ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON CST TODAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EAST CENTRAL
ILLINOIS AND SOUTHEAST ILLINOIS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A VERY MOIST LOW LEVEL AIRMASS...LIGHT WINDS...AND THE APPROACH
OF A WARM FRONT WILL CONTRIBUTE TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF DENSE FOG
ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING.

VISIBILITIES OF ONE QUARTER MILE OR LESS ARE EXPECTED THIS
MORNING IN MANY LOCATIONS. SOME IMPROVEMENT IN VISIBILITY IS
EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY WHERE ALL THE SNOW HAS
MELTED. HOWEVER...LIGHTER FOG WILL LINGER THROUGH THE DAY.

A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY AND TONIGHT AS A FEW UPPER
DISTURBANCES MOVE THROUGH THE REGION. ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS ARE
NOT EXPECTED...BUT THE STORMS MAY PRODUCE SMALL HAIL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

THE STRONG AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION TUESDAY.
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE PASSAGE OF THIS
SYSTEM. THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK THAT THESE STORMS WILL BECOME
SEVERE. DAMAGING WINDS ARE THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH THESE STORMS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED THROUGH TONIGHT.

BAK