Severe Thunderstorm Warning 152, NWS Lincoln, IL

000 
WWUS53 KILX 151958
SVSILX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
257 PM CDT SUN JUN 15 2008

ILC169-152007-
/O.CAN.KILX.SV.W.0152.000000T0000Z-080615T2045Z/
SCHUYLER-
257 PM CDT SUN JUN 15 2008

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR EASTERN SCHUYLER COUNTY IS
CANCELLED...

AT 252 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED THAT
THE THUNDERSTORM THAT HAD PROMPTED THE WARNING HAD MOVED OUT OF THE
AREA...THUS THE WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM.

LAT...LON 4016 8926 4015 8963 4016 8966 4015 8970
      4016 9021 4070 9009 4073 8934 4062 8934
      4061 8932
TIME...MOT...LOC 1957Z 270DEG 40KT 4066 8996 4030 9002
          4012 9011

$$

ILC057-107-125-143-179-152045-
/O.CON.KILX.SV.W.0152.000000T0000Z-080615T2045Z/
FULTON-LOGAN-MASON-PEORIA-TAZEWELL-
257 PM CDT SUN JUN 15 2008

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 345 PM CDT
FOR SOUTHERN PEORIA...TAZEWELL...MASON...NORTHERN LOGAN AND EASTERN
FULTON COUNTIES...

AT 252 PM CDT...TRAINED WEATHER SPOTTERS REPORTED A LINE OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GOLF BALL SIZE HAIL...AND
DESTRUCTIVE WINDS IN EXCESS OF 70 MPH.  THESE STORMS WERE LOCATED
ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 2 MILES NORTH OF NORRIS TO 2 MILES WEST
OF HAVANA TO 6 MILES SOUTHWEST OF BATH...MOVING EAST AT 46 MPH.

THESE STORMS PRODUCED 60 MPH WINDS AT IPAVA...FIATT...AND SMITHFIELD
AROUND 250 PM...AND NICKEL SIZE HAIL AND 60 MPH WINDS IN CANTON
AT 255 PM.

PEOPLE NEAR THESE LOCATIONS ARE STILL THREATENED...
  TOPEKA...
  POPLAR CITY...
  TRIVOLI...
  SMITHVILLE...
  UNION...
  MANITO...
  KINGSTON MINES...
  GLASFORD...
  FOREST CITY...
  EASTON...

IF YOU ARE IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM...PREPARE IMMEDIATELY FOR
DAMAGING WINDS...DESTRUCTIVE HAIL...AND DEADLY CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING. PEOPLE OUTSIDE SHOULD MOVE TO A SHELTER...PREFERABLY
INSIDE A STRONG BUILDING BUT AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

LAT...LON 4016 8926 4015 8963 4016 8966 4015 8970
      4016 9021 4070 9009 4073 8934 4062 8934
      4061 8932
TIME...MOT...LOC 1957Z 270DEG 40KT 4066 8996 4030 9002
          4012 9011

$$

AUTEN/GEELHART

000 
WWUS53 KILX 152031
SVSILX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
331 PM CDT SUN JUN 15 2008

ILC057-152041-
/O.CAN.KILX.SV.W.0152.000000T0000Z-080615T2045Z/
FULTON-
331 PM CDT SUN JUN 15 2008

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR EASTERN FULTON COUNTY IS
CANCELLED...

AT 330 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED THAT
THE THUNDERSTORM THAT HAD PROMPTED THE WARNING HAD MOVED OUT OF THE
AREA...THUS THE WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM.

LAT...LON 4016 8926 4015 8978 4070 8968 4073 8934
      4062 8934 4061 8932
TIME...MOT...LOC 2031Z 270DEG 40KT 4066 8946 4030 8952
          4012 8962

$$

ILC107-125-143-179-152045-
/O.CON.KILX.SV.W.0152.000000T0000Z-080615T2045Z/
LOGAN-MASON-PEORIA-TAZEWELL-
331 PM CDT SUN JUN 15 2008

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 345 PM CDT
FOR SOUTHEASTERN PEORIA...TAZEWELL...EASTERN MASON AND NORTHERN LOGAN
COUNTIES...

AT 330 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GOLF
BALL SIZE HAIL...AND DESTRUCTIVE WINDS IN EXCESS OF 70 MPH.  THESE
STORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 3 MILES NORTH OF
MORTON TO 3 MILES WEST OF EMDEN TO 5 MILES SOUTHWEST OF NEW
HOLLAND...MOVING EAST AT 45 MPH.

PEOPLE NEAR THESE LOCATIONS ARE STILL THREATENED...
  ARMINGTON...
  MINIER...
  MACKINAW...
  HARTSBURG...
  LAWNDALE...

IF YOU ARE IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM...PREPARE IMMEDIATELY FOR
DAMAGING WINDS...DESTRUCTIVE HAIL...AND DEADLY CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING. PEOPLE OUTSIDE SHOULD MOVE TO A SHELTER...PREFERABLY
INSIDE A STRONG BUILDING BUT AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

LAT...LON 4016 8926 4015 8978 4070 8968 4073 8934
      4062 8934 4061 8932
TIME...MOT...LOC 2031Z 270DEG 40KT 4066 8946 4030 8952
          4012 8962

$$

AUTEN/GEELHART

000 
WWUS53 KILX 152042
SVSILX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
341 PM CDT SUN JUN 15 2008

ILC107-125-143-179-152051-
/O.EXP.KILX.SV.W.0152.000000T0000Z-080615T2045Z/
LOGAN-MASON-PEORIA-TAZEWELL-
341 PM CDT SUN JUN 15 2008

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTHEASTERN PEORIA...
AND EASTERN MASON COUNTIES EXPIRES AT 345 PM CDT...

AT 339 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED THAT
THE THUNDERSTORM THAT HAD PROMPTED THE WARNING HAD MOVED OUT OF THE
AREA...THUS THE WARNING HAS BEEN ALLOWED TO EXPIRE.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING CONTINUES FOR NORTHERN LOGAN AND
EASTERN TAZEWELL COUNTIES UNTIL 430 PM.

LAT...LON 4016 8926 4015 8978 4070 8968 4073 8934
      4062 8934 4061 8932
TIME...MOT...LOC 2041Z 270DEG 40KT 4066 8931 4030 8937
          4012 8948

$$

AUTEN/GEELHART

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
234 PM CDT SUN JUN 15 2008

.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 234 PM CDT SUN JUN 15 2008

LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED A COMPLEX WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA AND POINTS UPSTREAM. A COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM
LAKE SUPERIOR INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. MEANWHILE...AN OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY FROM OVERNIGHT CONVECTION EXTENDED FROM SOUTHERN LAKE
MICHIGAN...THROUGH SOUTHERN ILLINOIS...INTO SOUTHEAST IOWA. CLOSER
TO HOME...ANOTHER OUTFLOW WAS JUST NORTH OF A LINE FROM QUINCY TO
CHAMPAIGN. THE ONGOING AND YET TO DEVELOP CONVECTION ALONG THESE
BOUNDARIES THROUGH TONIGHT IS THE PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN OVER
THE NEXT FEW DAYS. ONCE THE ABOVE MENTIONED COLD FRONT PASSES
THROUGH TONIGHT...QUIETER AND COOLER WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR MUCH
OF THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

NOT SURPRISINGLY...THE MODELS ARE STRUGGLING WITH THE ONGOING
CONVECTION AND WILL NOT BE OF SIGNIFICANT USE TONIGHT. OTHERWISE...
12Z MODELS IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT WITH RESPECT TO FEATURES EXPECTED
TO IMPACT REGION OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES
GENERALLY CLOSE/REASONABLE...SO WILL NOT STRAY TOO FAR.

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

TONIGHT...EXPECT STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TO TRACK EAST
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA INTO EARLY EVENING...ASSOCIATED
WITH CURRENT STRONG COMPLEX. THESE STORMS WILL BE MOVING INTO AN
AREA WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES AND WITH FAIRLY STRONG UNIDIRECTIONAL
WIND SHEAR PROFILES. THE PREDOMINANT THREATS WITH THESE STORMS
WILL BE DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. ADDITIONAL
SHOWER/STORM DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE UNTIL THE COLD FRONT PASSES
THROUGH THE REGION LATER TONIGHT...BUT THE EXTENT AND POTENTIAL
SEVERITY OF THIS DEVELOPMENT WILL BE DETERMINED BY HOW MUCH
STABILIZATION OCCURS DUE TO THE ONGOING STORMS.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE
SOUTH AND EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY EARLY MONDAY AS SURFACE
FRONT PUSHES SOUTH OF THE REGION. THEN...FAIRLY DEEP UPPER
TROFFING OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WILL SLOWLY SHIFT EAST AND
ALLOW THE UPPER FLOW OVER THE FORECAST AREA TO BECOME NEUTRAL.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION AT THE SURFACE AS A
RESULT. THESE FEATURES WILL PROVIDE US WITH QUIET AND COOLER
CONDITIONS.

LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...MODEL/ENSEMBLE
AGREEMENT REMAINS PRETTY GOOD THROUGH THE PERIOD. TROFFING OVER
EASTERN NORTH AMERICA AND RIDGING OVER THE PLAINS WILL SLOWLY
SHIFT EAST WITH TIME...ALLOWING A GRADUAL MODERATION IN
TEMPERATURES HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND. WE WILL ALSO BE AT GREATER
RISK OF IMPULSES RIDING THE TOP OF THE RIDGE AND BRINGING US
PRECIPITATION CHANCE HEADING INTO THE END OF THE WEEK. THE DETAILS
ON THE PRECIPITATION RISK IS STILL TRICKY...SO WILL NOT GO ABOVE A
SLIGHT CHANCE MENTION AT THIS TIME FRIDAY INTO SUNDAY.

BAK
&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED 1250 PM CDT SUN JUN 15 2008

STRONG TO SEVERE SQUALL LINE OVER SE IA AND NW MO FROM SW OF THE
QUAD CITIES TO KC TO RACE EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL IL TAF SITES
DURING THIS AFTERNOON. STORMS TO AFFECT PIA/SPI BY 20Z...DEC AND
SPI BY 21Z AND CMI BY 22Z. HAVE WIND GUSTS OF 45 KTS WITH 1 MILE
VSBY FROM HEAVY RAIN AND CEILINGS OF 2500 FT. AFTER A ONE TO TWO
HOUR PERIOD OF THE SQUALL LINE...HAVE A COUPLE HOUR PERIOD OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EARLY THIS EVENING TIL 00Z TO 02Z. THEN
VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL AGAIN REST OF TONIGHT AND MON MORNING.
SW WINDS AROUND 10 TO 12 KTS TO TURN NW AS THE COLD FRONT OVER SE
WI/IA INTO NW MO TO PASS SE THRU CENTRAL IL THIS EVENING. QUIETER
WX EXPECTED MON WITH SCATTERED TO BROKEN CLOUDS ABOVE 3K FT AS
HIGH PRESSURE OVER MT SETTLES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS.

HUETTL
&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1039 AM CDT SUN JUN 15 2008

ILZ027>031-036>038-040>043-047>051-161100-
CASS-DE WITT-FULTON-KNOX-LOGAN-MARSHALL-MASON-MCLEAN-MENARD-
MORGAN-PEORIA-SANGAMON-SCHUYLER-SCOTT-STARK-TAZEWELL-WOODFORD-
1039 AM CDT SUN JUN 15 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
ILLINOIS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY...

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM MID
AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING WITH THE PRIMARY THREAT BEING
STRAIGHT LINE WIND DAMAGE AND LARGE HAIL. THE THUNDERSTORM THREAT
WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST THIS EVENING AS THE COLD
FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH.

INTERESTS ALONG THE ILLINOIS RIVER FROM HAVANA TO BEARDSTOWN WILL
EXPERIENCE FLOODING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. IN ADDITION...ALONG THE
SANGAMON RIVER...AREAS AROUND CHANDLERVILLE WILL BE SEEING SOME
MINOR FLOODING THROUGH LATE TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL BE NEEDED...MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. PRESENT INDICATIONS SUGGEST THE PRIMARY TIME FRAME
WOULD BE FROM 2 PM UNTIL 10 PM CDT.

A CONFERENCE CALL FOR EMERGENCY MANAGERS WILL BE CONDUCTED AT
11 AM CDT.

ILZ044>046-052>057-061-161100-
CHAMPAIGN-CHRISTIAN-COLES-DOUGLAS-EDGAR-MACON-MOULTRIE-PIATT-
SHELBY-VERMILION-
1039 AM CDT SUN JUN 15 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
ILLINOIS AND EAST CENTRAL ILLINOIS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY...

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM MID
AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING WITH THE PRIMARY THREAT BEING
STRAIGHT LINE WIND DAMAGE AND LARGE HAIL. THE THUNDERSTORM THREAT
WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST LATE THIS EVENING OR DURING
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS OF MONDAY AS THE COLD FRONT SWEEPS
THROUGH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL BE NEEDED...MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON
THROUGH LATE EVENING HOURS. PRESENT INDICATIONS SUGGEST THE
PRIMARY TIME FRAME WOULD BE FROM 4 PM UNTIL MIDNIGHT CDT.

A CONFERENCE CALL FOR EMERGENCY MANAGERS WILL BE CONDUCTED AT
11 AM CDT.

ILZ062-063-066>068-071>073-161100-
CLARK-CLAY-CRAWFORD-CUMBERLAND-EFFINGHAM-JASPER-LAWRENCE-RICHLAND-
1039 AM CDT SUN JUN 15 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EAST CENTRAL
ILLINOIS AND SOUTHEAST ILLINOIS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...

A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE TOWARDS CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST
ILLINOIS LATE TODAY BRINGING AN INCREASING THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS
TO THE AREA. SOME OF THE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS AND LARGE HAIL THIS EVENING. THE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN AND EDGE OUT OF OUR AREA AFTER
MIDNIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE AREA.

EXTENSIVE RUNOFF FLOODING FROM PREVIOUS RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE
OVER MANY AREAS OF EAST CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST ILLINOIS FOR THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. IN ADDITION...SEVERAL RIVERS AND STREAMS WILL
CONTINUE OUT OF THEIR BANKS INCLUDING THE WABASH...LITTLE
WABASH...AND EMBARRAS RIVERS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS EARLY MONDAY MORNING BUT
IT APPEARS THE THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE JUST TO THE EAST
AND SOUTH OF THE AREA.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED
AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL BE NEEDED LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
ESPECIALLY THIS EVENING. PRESENT INDICATIONS SUGGEST THE PRIMARY
TIME FRAME FOR ACTIVATION WILL BE FROM 5 PM UNTIL 1 AM CDT.

KH