Severe Thunderstorm Warning 101, NWS Lincoln, IL

000 
WWUS53 KILX 031714
SVSILX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1214 PM CDT TUE JUN 3 2008

ILC029-031724-
/O.CAN.KILX.SV.W.0101.000000T0000Z-080603T1730Z/
COLES-
1214 PM CDT TUE JUN 3 2008

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTHEASTERN COLES COUNTY IS
CANCELLED...

AT 1209 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
THAT THE THUNDERSTORM THAT HAD PROMPTED THE WARNING HAD MOVED OUT OF
THE AREA...THUS THE WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 PM.

LAT...LON 3949 8792 3962 8791 3973 8786 3982 8783
      3984 8754 3979 8755 3978 8754 3950 8754
TIME...MOT...LOC 1714Z 269DEG 58KT 3980 8754 3967 8756
          3950 8764

$$
ILC045-031730-
/O.CON.KILX.SV.W.0101.000000T0000Z-080603T1730Z/
EDGAR-
1214 PM CDT TUE JUN 3 2008

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1230 PM CDT
FOR EDGAR COUNTY...

AT 1209 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS CONTINUED TO
DETECT A LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING
WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.  THESE STORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE
EXTENDING FROM CHRISMAN TO 2 MILES SOUTH OF EDGAR COUNTY AIRPORT TO
BELL RIDGE...OR ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 13 MILES NORTH OF PARIS
TO 4 MILES NORTH OF PARIS TO 7 MILES NORTH OF MARSHALL...MOVING EAST
AT 67 MPH.

LOCATIONS AFFECTED INCLUDE...VERMILION...SCOTTLAND...REDMON...
METCALF AND EDGAR.

LAT...LON 3949 8792 3962 8791 3973 8786 3982 8783
      3984 8754 3979 8755 3978 8754 3950 8754
TIME...MOT...LOC 1714Z 269DEG 58KT 3980 8754 3967 8756
          3950 8764

$$

GEELHART/BARNES

000 
WWUS53 KILX 031726
SVSILX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1226 PM CDT TUE JUN 3 2008

ILC045-031736-
/O.EXP.KILX.SV.W.0101.000000T0000Z-080603T1730Z/
EDGAR-
1226 PM CDT TUE JUN 3 2008

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR EDGAR COUNTY EXPIRES AT 1230
PM CDT...

AT 124 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED THAT
THE THUNDERSTORM THAT HAD PROMPTED THE WARNING HAD MOVED OUT OF THE
AREA...THUS THE WARNING HAS BEEN ALLOWED TO EXPIRE.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 PM.

LAT...LON 3949 8792 3962 8791 3973 8786 3982 8783
      3984 8754 3979 8755 3978 8754 3950 8754
TIME...MOT...LOC 1726Z 269DEG 58KT 3979 8729 3966 8731
          3950 8739

$$

GEELHART/BARNES

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1030 AM CDT TUE JUN 3 2008

.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 1030 AM CDT TUE JUN 3 2008

BOW ECHO CONTINUES TO MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS ILLINOIS PRODUCING
SCATTERED DAMAGE. THE TORNADO WATCH THAT HAS BEEN IN EFFECT WILL
BE EXTENDED AHEAD OF THE BOW UNTIL 2 PM.

IMPACT OF THIS BOW ON LATER CONVECTION MAY BE TO DELAY THE
INITIATION UNTIL EARLY EVENEING.

BARKER
&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED 650 AM CDT TUE JUN 3 2008...FOR THE 12Z TAFS

STORMS MAY TAKE A SHORT BREAK EARLY THIS MORNING...THEN A LINE OF
STORMS FROM IOWA MAY REACH OUR CWA BY MID MORNING. 4KM WRF OUTPUT
SHOWS THE CONVECTION MOSTLY DISSIPATING AS WE HEAD INTO LATE
MORNING...WITH A BREAK UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING WHEN THE
WARM FRONT SAGS BACK SOUTH AS A COLD FRONT. A MODERATE RISK IS IN
PLACE FOR LATE TODAY AND THIS EVENING...SO I ADDED +TSRAGS AND VRB
GUSTS TO 45KTS EARLY THIS EVENING. IFR CIGS AND VIS WILL BE LIKELY
IN THE HEAVIER STORMS.

THE BACK EDGE OF STORMS OVERNIGHT SHOULD COME BETWEEN 06Z AND
09Z.

SHIMON
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 326 AM CDT TUE JUN 3 2008

SHORT TERM...TODAY AND WEDNESDAY. A VERY COMPLEX FORECAST IN THE
SHORT TERM SW-NE ORIENTED 50-55KT LOW LEVEL JET OVER MISSOURI
OVERNIGHT HAS LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF SEVERAL TRAINING CLUSTERS
OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CWA IN AN AREA OF VERY STRONG LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ON THE LEADING EDGE OF THE LLJ. MOST OF
THE STORMS HAVE BEEN ELEVATED...BUT WARM/MOIST ADVECTION HAS
CLEARLY LEAD TO A CHANGE IN THE ENVIRONMENT SOUTH OF THE I-72
CORRIDOR... AS A STRONG CELL MOVED OVER SANGAMON COUNTY WAS
FINALLY ABLE TO BRING STRONG WINDS DOWN TO THE SFC. THIS STORM
EVENTUALLY MORPHED INTO A SUPERCELL WITH STRONG ROTATION AND
POSSIBLE TORNADO DAMAGE IN NORTHERN CHRISTIAN COUNTY. METAR OB
FROM KTAZ INDICATED STRONGLY BACKED SFC FLOW... WITH PROFILER/VAD
WINDS INDICATING 40-50 KT SW WINDS JUST ALOFT... THUS THERE WAS
PLENTY OF STRONG WIND SHEAR READY TO BE TAPPED STRETCHED AS THIS
CELL BECAME SFC-BASED.

BIG QUESTION IS WHAT HAPPENS OVER THE NEXT 12-18 HOURS. NCEP
MODELS AT 00Z DID NOT PICK UP ON MCS CURRENTLY MOVING INTO
NORTHWESTERN IOWA... AND SUGGEST FOCUS FOR ONGOING CONVECTION
WILL DRIFT NORTHWARD IN TIME AS LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY/AXIS OF STRONG
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE PUSHES NORTHWARD AS WARM/MOIST AIR ADVECTS
INTO THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA.

06Z NAM AND ONE OF THE EXPERIMENTAL RUC MODELS WERE THE ONLY ONES
TO HAVE ANY REFLECTION OF ONGOING MCS IN NW IOWA. BOTH SUGGEST
THIS SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN AS IT PUSHES SOUTHEASTWARD...BASICALLY
RIDING JUST NORTH OF THE LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY...PARALLEL TO THE
850-700MB THETA GRADIENT.

MESOSCALE EVOLUTION EXPECTED TODAY...AND THIS IS A PRETTY LOW
CONFIDENCE FORECAST...IS FOR FOCUS OF ELEVATED STORMS TO SHIFT
NORTHWARD THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS...WITH LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY UP
AROUND THE I-74 CORRIDOR BY MID-MORNING. IOWA MCS OR ITS REMNANTS
AND LEADING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY LOOK TO REACH THE FAR WESTERN CWA
BETWEEN 15-18Z. EXPECT THIS WILL BECOME THE FOCUS FOR A SECOND
ROUND OF CONVECTION IN THE WARM SECTOR SOUTH OF THE FRONT. SPC HAS
MOST OF THE CWA IN A MODERATE RISK... AND TORNADOES WILL BE
POSSIBLE GIVEN STRONG LOW LEVEL SHEAR ESPECIALLY WHERE SFC WINDS
ARE LOCALLY BACKED CLOSER TO THE WARM FRONT. ALTHOUGH WE COULD NOT
BUY A HAILSTONE WITH EARLIEST STORMS OVERNIGHT...HAIL THREAT WILL
BE ENHANCED LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS STEEPER MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES
WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI ADVECT INTO THE AREA.

06Z NAM SUGGESTS SEVERAL MORE WAVES OF CONVECTION INTO THE EVENING
HOURS AS LOW AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVES PUSH ACROSS THE AREA. WITH THE
HEAVY RAIN OVERNIGHT ALONG THE I-72 CORRIDOR...AND EXPECTED RETURN
OF CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON...WE MAY NEED TO THINK ABOUT GOING
WITH A FLOOD WATCH ACROSS PART OF THE CWA. WITH THE CURRENT PRECIP
FOCUS DRIFTING NORTH...WE HAVE SOME TIME TO WORK WITH. MORNING
COOP REPORTS WILL PROVIDE GOOD GROUND TRUTH OF OVERNIGHT
RAINFALL... AND HOPEFULLY BY MID-MORNING THE MESOSCALE EVOLUTION
WILL BECOME A BIT MORE CLEAR.

EXPECT A MESS OF BOUNDARIES AROUND EARLY WEDNESDAY...BUT MAIN LOW
LEVEL FRONT WILL BE DRIFTING NORTH. WITH WARMER MID-LEVEL AIR
MOVING IN...CONVECTIVE COVERAGE LOOKS TO BE LESS...BUT KEPT THE
HIGH CHANCE POPS IN FOR MUCH OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY.

LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
THURSDAY LOOKS FAIRLY HOT AND DRY AS STRONG CAPPING DEVELOPS. COLD
FRONT LOOKS TO MOVE INTO THE AREA FRIDAY...BUT LATEST TRENDS
SUGGEST EASTERN RIDGING WILL BUILD A LITTLE FARTHER WEST THAN
PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT...SO THE FRONT WILL BE SPUTTERING AS IT REACHES
THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...AND MAY HAVE A TOUGH TIME BREAKING
THE CAP.

HARDIMAN

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1131 AM CDT TUE JUN 3 2008

ILZ027>031-036>038-041100-
FULTON-KNOX-MARSHALL-MCLEAN-PEORIA-STARK-TAZEWELL-WOODFORD-
1131 AM CDT TUE JUN 3 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
ILLINOIS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE STORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT. SOME THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH MIDDLE
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...SEVERE STORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP OVER
NORTHERN MISSOURI LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN TRACK EAST INTO
CENTRAL ILLINOIS. THE MAIN THREATS WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS. IN ADDITION...VERY HEAVY RAIN AND FLOODING WILL BE
POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO LINGER ACROSS CENTRAL ILLINOIS
ON WEDNESDAY. THAT SYSTEM WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR OTHER POSSIBLY
SEVERE STORMS...AND THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS OUR AREA IN
A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE STORMS FOR WEDNESDAY. LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS WILL AGAIN BE THE PRIMARY HAZARDS.

ANOTHER PERIOD OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM LATE THURSDAY INTO
SATURDAY. THE BEST CHANCES FOR STRONG STORMS WILL BE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT MOVES EAST ACROSS THE
AREA.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED BETWEEN 4 PM AND MIDNIGHT.

ILZ044>046-052>057-061>063-066>068-071>073-041100-
CHAMPAIGN-CHRISTIAN-CLARK-CLAY-COLES-CRAWFORD-CUMBERLAND-DOUGLAS-
EDGAR-EFFINGHAM-JASPER-LAWRENCE-MACON-MOULTRIE-PIATT-RICHLAND-
SHELBY-VERMILION-
1131 AM CDT TUE JUN 3 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
ILLINOIS...EAST CENTRAL ILLINOIS AND SOUTHEAST ILLINOIS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE STORMS TODAY AND TONIGHT. SOME
SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE INTO EARLY AFTERNOON AS A LINE OF
STRONG WIND PRODUCING STORMS MOVES ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST
ILLINOIS. ADDITIONAL SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE MAIN THREATS LATER TODAY WILL BE LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. IN ADDITION...VERY HEAVY RAIN AND
FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE. AN ISOLATED TORNADO WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO LINGER ACROSS CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEAST ILLINOIS ON WEDNESDAY. THAT SYSTEM WILL BE THE FOCUS
FOR OTHER POSSIBLY SEVERE STORMS...AND THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER
HAS OUR AREA IN A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE STORMS FOR WEDNESDAY.
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL AGAIN BE THE PRIMARY HAZARDS.

ANOTHER PERIOD OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM LATE THURSDAY INTO
SATURDAY. THE BEST CHANCES FOR STRONG STORMS WILL BE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT MOVES EAST ACROSS THE
AREA.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL BE NEEDED THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON AND
AGAIN BETWEEN 5 PM AND MIDNIGHT.

ILZ040>043-047>051-041100-
CASS-DE WITT-LOGAN-MASON-MENARD-MORGAN-SANGAMON-SCHUYLER-SCOTT-
1131 AM CDT TUE JUN 3 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
ILLINOIS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE STORMS LATER TODAY AND
TONIGHT. SOME THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH MIDDLE
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...SEVERE STORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP OVER
NORTHERN MISSOURI LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN TRACK EAST INTO
CENTRAL ILLINOIS. THE MAIN THREATS WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS. IN ADDITION...VERY HEAVY RAIN AND FLOODING WILL BE
POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO LINGER ACROSS CENTRAL ILLINOIS
ON WEDNESDAY. THAT SYSTEM WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR OTHER POSSIBLY
SEVERE STORMS...AND THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS OUR AREA IN
A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE STORMS FOR WEDNESDAY. LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS WILL AGAIN BE THE PRIMARY HAZARDS.

ANOTHER PERIOD OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM LATE THURSDAY INTO
SATURDAY. THE BEST CHANCES FOR STRONG STORMS WILL BE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT MOVES EAST ACROSS THE
AREA.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL BE NEEDED BETWEEN 5 PM AND MIDNIGHT.

BARKER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1131 AM CDT TUE JUN 03 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1040 AM     TSTM WND DMG     3 W MOUNT PULASKI       40.01N 89.34W
06/03/2008                   LOGAN              IL   EMERGENCY MNGR

            GRAIN BIN AND MACHINE SHED DESTROYED...CORNER OF 700
            STREET AND 1250 AVENUE. FROM LOGAN COUNTY EMERGENCY
            MANAGER.

&&

OUSLEY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1135 AM CDT TUE JUN 03 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1000 AM     TSTM WND DMG     1 S HAVANA              40.28N 90.06W
06/03/2008                   MASON              IL   EMERGENCY MNGR

            TREE CRUSHED A VAN AND ANOTHER TREE FELL ON A TRAILER IN
            THE MATANZAS BEACH AREA. ESTIMATED WIND GUST OF 60 MPH.

&&

OUSLEY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1140 AM CDT TUE JUN 03 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1020 AM     TSTM WND DMG     2 N GREENVIEW           40.11N 89.74W
06/03/2008                   MENARD             IL   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            17 POWER POLES BLOWN DOWN AND POWER LINES DOWN...ON ROUTE
            29...NORTH OF GREENVIEW. FROM STATE POLICE POST DISTRICT
            9.

&&

OUSLEY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1143 AM CDT TUE JUN 03 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1100 AM     TSTM WND DMG     FORSYTH                 39.92N 88.96W
06/03/2008                   MACON              IL   EMERGENCY MNGR

            LARGE TREE LIMBS DOWN AND ROOF DAMAGE ON ONE HOME. FROM
            MACON COUNTY EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT.

&&

OUSLEY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1148 AM CDT TUE JUN 03 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0430 AM     HAIL             ALSEY                   39.56N 90.43W
06/03/2008  E1.50 INCH       SCOTT              IL   EMERGENCY MNGR

            ONE INCHE TO ONE AND ONE HALF INCH HAIL CAUSED DAMAGE TO
            THE ALSEY BRICK FACTORY. ALSO WINDOWS WERE BLOWN OUT AND
            HAIL DAMAGE TO NUMEROUS VEHICLES WAS REPORTED.

&&

OUSLEY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1154 AM CDT TUE JUN 03 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1035 AM     TSTM WND DMG     SPRINGFIELD             39.78N 89.64W
06/03/2008                   SANGAMON           IL   MESONET

            ON THE WEST SIDE OF SPRINGFIELD IN JEROME A ROTATING WALL
            CLOUD REPORTED ALONG WITH 60 MPH WIND GUST. POWER OUTAGES
            AND TREES DOWN WERE REPORTED. SWOP.

&&

OUSLEY