Alert archive / Illinois / River Flood Warnings in 2008

River Flood Warning 52, NWS Lincoln, IL

May 15, 2008Fulton County, Mason County, Illinois

NWS Lincoln, IL issued this river flood warning at May 15, 2008, 9:50 AM CDT for Fulton County, Mason County, Illinois. It took effect at May 15, 2008, 7:00 PM CDT. It was in force for 5 days.

The area

The counties it named.

The facts

Issued
May 15, 2008, 9:50 AM CDT (14:50 UTC)
In effect from
May 15, 2008, 7:00 PM CDT
Expired
May 20, 2008, 4:30 PM CDT
In force
5 days
Issued by
NWS Lincoln, IL
Flood severity
Minor

Counties Fulton County, IL, Mason County, IL

The radar

The Lincoln radar (KILX), 66 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 14:49 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The river

Written for the forecast point Illinois River near Havana (HAVI2).

Action stage
13 ft
Minor stage
14 ft
Moderate stage
17 ft
Major stage
23 ft

This gauge today: stage, forecast and historic crests

Stage from the USGS instantaneous record, one reading an hour, from a day before the product to a day after it ended. Flood stages are today's.

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

000 
WGUS43 KILX 151450
FLWILX
FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL 
950 AM CDT THU MAY 15 2008

...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LINCOLN IL HAS ISSUED A FLOOD 
WARNING FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVERS IN ILLINOIS... 

  ILLINOIS RIVER AT HAVANA AFFECTING FULTON AND MASON COUNTIES

.RAINFALL EARLIER THIS WEEK WILL RESULT IN THE RIVER AT HAVANA 
TO RISE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE...CAUSING MINOR FLOODING.

THE FOLLOWING FORECASTS ARE BASED ON OBSERVED PRECIPITATION AND 
PRECIPITATION FORECAST THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

PERSONS WITH INTERESTS ALONG THIS RIVER NEED TO PREPARE FOR FLOODING.
STAY TUNED FOR FURTHER UPDATES ON THIS FLOODING SITUATION. 

ILC057-125-160450-
/O.NEW.KILX.FL.W.0052.080516T0000Z-080519T1200Z/
/HAVI2.1.ER.080516T0000Z.080517T0000Z.080519T0600Z.NO/
950 AM CDT THU MAY 15 2008

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LINCOLN IL HAS ISSUED A 

* FLOOD WARNING FOR 
  THE ILLINOIS RIVER AT HAVANA.
* FROM THIS EVENING TO MONDAY MORNING...OR UNTIL THE WARNING IS 
  CANCELLED.
* AT  830 AM THURSDAY THE STAGE WAS 13.9 FEET. 
* MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST. 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 14.0 FEET. 
* FORECAST...RISE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE BY THIS EVENING AND CONTINUE TO 
  RISE TO NEAR 14.2 FEET BY TOMORROW EVENING. THE RIVER WILL FALL 
  BELOW FLOOD STAGE BY EARLY MONDAY MORNING.
* IMPACT...AT 14.0 FEET...MINOR FLOODING BEGINS TO AGRICULTURAL AREAS 
  NOT PROTECTED BY LEVEES.

&&


                  FLD  OBSERVED         FORECAST 6AM
LOCATION          STG  STG  DAY TIME    FRI    SAT    SUN

ILLINOIS RIVER
 HAVANA            14  13.9 THU 8 AM    14.1   14.2   14.1



$$

GOETSCH
10 follow-up statements
000 
WGUS83 KILX 160258
FLSILX
FLOOD STATEMENT 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL 
958 PM CDT THU MAY 15 2008

...THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVER IN ILLINOIS...
 
  ILLINOIS RIVER AT HAVANA AFFECTING FULTON AND MASON COUNTIES 
  ILLINOIS RIVER AT BEARDSTOWN AFFECTING BROWN...CASS...MORGAN AND 
  SCHUYLER COUNTIES 

THE FOLLOWING FORECASTS ARE BASED ON OBSERVED PRECIPITATION AND 
PRECIPITATION FORECAST THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

IF YOU ENCOUNTER A FLOODED ROADWAY...TURN AROUND AND FIND AN 
ALTERNATE ROUTE. STAY TUNED TO LOCAL MEDIA OR NOAA WEATHER RADIO FOR 
LATER STATEMENTS AND FORECASTS.

ILC057-125-161658-
/O.EXT.KILX.FL.W.0052.000000T0000Z-080518T1200Z/
/HAVI2.1.ER.080515T2250Z.080517T0000Z.080518T0600Z.NO/
958 PM CDT THU MAY 15 2008

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE ILLINOIS RIVER AT HAVANA. 
* UNTIL SUNDAY MORNING...OR UNTIL THE WARNING IS CANCELLED.
* AT  930 PM THURSDAY THE STAGE WAS 14.0 FEET. 
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 14.0 FEET. 
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE RISING TO NEAR 14.1 FEET BY 
  TOMORROW EVENING. THE RIVER WILL FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE EARLY 
  SUNDAY MORNING.
* IMPACT...AT 14.0 FEET...MINOR FLOODING BEGINS TO AGRICULTURAL AREAS 
  NOT PROTECTED BY LEVEES.

&&

                  FLD  OBSERVED         FORECAST 6AM
LOCATION          STG  STG  DAY TIME    FRI    SAT    SUN

ILLINOIS RIVER
 HAVANA            14  14.0 THU 9 PM    14.0   14.1   13.9

$$

ILC009-017-137-169-161657-
/O.EXT.KILX.FL.W.0050.000000T0000Z-080522T1200Z/
/BEAI2.1.ER.080513T1645Z.080517T0600Z.080522T0600Z.NO/
958 PM CDT THU MAY 15 2008

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE ILLINOIS RIVER AT BEARDSTOWN. 
* UNTIL THURSDAY MAY 22...OR UNTIL THE WARNING IS CANCELLED.
* AT  945 PM THURSDAY THE STAGE WAS 14.7 FEET. 
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 14.0 FEET. 
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE RISING TO NEAR 14.9 FEET BY 
  EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. THE RIVER WILL FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE EARLY
  THURSDAY MORNING.
* IMPACT...AT 14.0 FEET...MINOR FLOODING BEGINS TO AGRICULTURAL AREAS 
  NOT PROTECTED BY LEVEES.

&&

                  FLD  OBSERVED         FORECAST 6AM
LOCATION          STG  STG  DAY TIME    FRI    SAT    SUN

ILLINOIS RIVER
 BEARDSTOWN        14  14.7 THU 10 PM   14.8   14.9   14.8

$$

SHIMON
000 
WGUS83 KILX 161518
FLSILX
FLOOD STATEMENT 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL 
1018 AM CDT FRI MAY 16 2008

...THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVER IN ILLINOIS...
 
  ILLINOIS RIVER AT HAVANA AFFECTING FULTON AND MASON COUNTIES 
  ILLINOIS RIVER AT BEARDSTOWN AFFECTING BROWN...CASS...MORGAN AND 
  SCHUYLER COUNTIES 

THE FOLLOWING FORECASTS ARE BASED ON OBSERVED PRECIPITATION AND 
PRECIPITATION FORECAST THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

IF YOU ENCOUNTER A FLOODED ROADWAY...TURN AROUND AND FIND AN 
ALTERNATE ROUTE. STAY TUNED TO LOCAL MEDIA OR NOAA WEATHER RADIO FOR 
LATER STATEMENTS AND FORECASTS.

ILC057-125-170518-
/O.EXT.KILX.FL.W.0052.000000T0000Z-080520T0000Z/
/HAVI2.1.ER.080515T2250Z.080517T0600Z.080519T1800Z.NO/
1018 AM CDT FRI MAY 16 2008

...FLOOD WARNING EXTENDED UNTIL MONDAY EVENING...THE FLOOD WARNING 
CONTINUES FOR
  THE ILLINOIS RIVER AT HAVANA. 
* UNTIL MONDAY EVENING...OR UNTIL THE WARNING IS CANCELLED.
* AT  930 AM FRIDAY THE STAGE WAS 14.1 FEET. 
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 14.0 FEET. 
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE RISING TO NEAR 14.2 FEET BY 
  EARLY TOMORROW MORNING. THE RIVER WILL FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE 
  MONDAY AFTERNOON.
* IMPACT...AT 14.0 FEET...MINOR FLOODING BEGINS TO AGRICULTURAL AREAS 
  NOT PROTECTED BY LEVEES.

&&


                  FLD  OBSERVED         FORECAST 6AM
LOCATION          STG  STG  DAY TIME    SAT    SUN    MON

ILLINOIS RIVER
 HAVANA            14  14.1 FRI 9 AM    14.2   14.2   14.1



$$

ILC009-017-137-169-170517-
/O.EXT.KILX.FL.W.0050.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/BEAI2.1.ER.080513T1645Z.080517T1800Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
1018 AM CDT FRI MAY 16 2008

...FLOOD WARNING EXTENDED UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE...THE FLOOD WARNING 
CONTINUES FOR
  THE ILLINOIS RIVER AT BEARDSTOWN. 
* UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE...OR UNTIL THE WARNING IS CANCELLED.
* AT  945 AM FRIDAY THE STAGE WAS 14.8 FEET. 
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 14.0 FEET. 
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE RISING TO NEAR 14.9 FEET BY 
  TOMORROW AFTERNOON THEN BEGIN FALLING.
* IMPACT...AT 14.0 FEET...MINOR FLOODING BEGINS TO AGRICULTURAL AREAS 
  NOT PROTECTED BY LEVEES.

&&


                  FLD  OBSERVED         FORECAST 6AM
LOCATION          STG  STG  DAY TIME    SAT    SUN    MON

ILLINOIS RIVER
 BEARDSTOWN        14  14.8 FRI 10 AM   14.8   14.9   14.8



$$
000 
WGUS83 KILX 170244
FLSILX
FLOOD STATEMENT 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL 
943 PM CDT FRI MAY 16 2008

...THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVER IN ILLINOIS...
 
  ILLINOIS RIVER AT HAVANA AFFECTING FULTON AND MASON COUNTIES 
  ILLINOIS RIVER AT BEARDSTOWN AFFECTING BROWN...CASS...MORGAN AND 
  SCHUYLER COUNTIES 

THE FOLLOWING FORECASTS ARE BASED ON OBSERVED PRECIPITATION AND 
PRECIPITATION FORECAST THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

IF YOU ENCOUNTER A FLOODED ROADWAY...TURN AROUND AND FIND AN 
ALTERNATE ROUTE. STAY TUNED TO LOCAL MEDIA OR NOAA WEATHER RADIO FOR 
LATER STATEMENTS AND FORECASTS.

ILC057-125-171643-
/O.EXT.KILX.FL.W.0052.000000T0000Z-080519T0600Z/
/HAVI2.1.ER.080515T2250Z.080516T2030Z.080519T0000Z.NO/
943 PM CDT FRI MAY 16 2008

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE ILLINOIS RIVER AT HAVANA. 
* UNTIL LATE SUNDAY NIGHT...OR UNTIL THE WARNING IS CANCELLED.
* AT  830 PM FRIDAY THE STAGE WAS 14.1 FEET. 
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 14.0 FEET. 
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE TO FALL TO BELOW FLOOD STAGE BY 
  SUNDAY EVENING.
* IMPACT...AT 14.0 FEET...MINOR FLOODING BEGINS TO AGRICULTURAL AREAS 
  NOT PROTECTED BY LEVEES.

&&

                  FLD  OBSERVED         FORECAST 6AM
LOCATION          STG  STG  DAY TIME    SAT    SUN    MON

ILLINOIS RIVER
 HAVANA            14  14.1 FRI 8 PM    14.1   14.0   13.9

$$

ILC009-017-137-169-171642-
/O.EXT.KILX.FL.W.0050.000000T0000Z-080522T1800Z/
/BEAI2.1.ER.080513T1645Z.080516T2230Z.080522T1200Z.NO/
943 PM CDT FRI MAY 16 2008

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE ILLINOIS RIVER AT BEARDSTOWN. 
* UNTIL THURSDAY AFTERNOON...OR UNTIL THE WARNING IS CANCELLED.
* AT  845 PM FRIDAY THE STAGE WAS 14.8 FEET. 
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 14.0 FEET. 
* IMPACT...AT 14.0 FEET...MINOR FLOODING BEGINS TO AGRICULTURAL AREAS 
  NOT PROTECTED BY LEVEES.

&&

                  FLD  OBSERVED         FORECAST 6AM
LOCATION          STG  STG  DAY TIME    SAT    SUN    MON

ILLINOIS RIVER
 BEARDSTOWN        14  14.8 FRI 9 PM    14.8   14.8   14.7

$$
000 
WGUS83 KILX 171501
FLSILX
FLOOD STATEMENT 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL 
1001 AM CDT SAT MAY 17 2008

...THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVER IN ILLINOIS..
  ILLINOIS RIVER AT HAVANA AFFECTING FULTON AND MASON COUNTIES 
  ILLINOIS RIVER AT BEARDSTOWN AFFECTING BROWN...CASS...MORGAN AND 
  SCHUYLER COUNTIES 

THE FOLLOWING FORECASTS ARE BASED ON OBSERVED PRECIPITATION AND 
PRECIPITATION FORECAST THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

IF YOU ENCOUNTER A FLOODED ROADWAY...TURN AROUND AND FIND AN 
ALTERNATE ROUTE. STAY TUNED TO LOCAL MEDIA OR NOAA WEATHER RADIO FOR 
LATER STATEMENTS AND FORECASTS.

ILC057-125-180501-
/O.CON.KILX.FL.W.0052.000000T0000Z-080519T0600Z/
/HAVI2.1.ER.080515T2250Z.080517T1300Z.080519T0000Z.NO/
1001 AM CDT SAT MAY 17 2008

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE ILLINOIS RIVER AT HAVANA. 
* UNTIL LATE SUNDAY NIGHT...OR UNTIL THE WARNING IS CANCELLED.
* AT  930 AM SATURDAY THE STAGE WAS 14.1 FEET. 
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 14.0 FEET. 
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE TO FALL TO BELOW FLOOD STAGE BY 
  TOMORROW EVENING.
* IMPACT...AT 14.0 FEET...MINOR FLOODING BEGINS TO AGRICULTURAL AREAS 
  NOT PROTECTED BY LEVEES.

&&


                  FLD  OBSERVED         FORECAST 6AM
LOCATION          STG  STG  DAY TIME    SUN    MON    TUE

ILLINOIS RIVER
 HAVANA            14  14.1 SAT 9 AM    14.1   13.9   13.7



$$

ILC009-017-137-169-180500-
/O.CON.KILX.FL.W.0050.000000T0000Z-080522T1800Z/
/BEAI2.1.ER.080513T1645Z.080517T1445Z.080522T1200Z.NO/
1001 AM CDT SAT MAY 17 2008

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE ILLINOIS RIVER AT BEARDSTOWN. 
* UNTIL THURSDAY AFTERNOON...OR UNTIL THE WARNING IS CANCELLED.
* AT  945 AM SATURDAY THE STAGE WAS 14.8 FEET. 
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 14.0 FEET. 
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE TO FALL TO BELOW FLOOD STAGE BY 
  THURSDAY MORNING.
* IMPACT...AT 14.0 FEET...MINOR FLOODING BEGINS TO AGRICULTURAL AREAS 
  NOT PROTECTED BY LEVEES.

&&


                  FLD  OBSERVED         FORECAST 6AM
LOCATION          STG  STG  DAY TIME    SUN    MON    TUE

ILLINOIS RIVER
 BEARDSTOWN        14  14.8 SAT 10 AM   14.7   14.6   14.4



$$
000 
WGUS83 KILX 180351
FLSILX
FLOOD STATEMENT 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL 
1051 PM CDT SAT MAY 17 2008

...THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVER IN ILLINOIS...
 
  ILLINOIS RIVER AT HAVANA AFFECTING FULTON AND MASON COUNTIES 
  ILLINOIS RIVER AT BEARDSTOWN AFFECTING BROWN...CASS...MORGAN AND 
  SCHUYLER COUNTIES 

THE FOLLOWING FORECASTS ARE BASED ON OBSERVED PRECIPITATION AND 
PRECIPITATION FORECAST THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

IF YOU ENCOUNTER A FLOODED ROADWAY...TURN AROUND AND FIND AN 
ALTERNATE ROUTE. STAY TUNED TO LOCAL MEDIA OR NOAA WEATHER RADIO FOR 
LATER STATEMENTS AND FORECASTS.

ILC057-125-181751-
/O.EXT.KILX.FL.W.0052.000000T0000Z-080519T1200Z/
/HAVI2.1.ER.080515T2250Z.080517T2300Z.080519T0600Z.NO/
1051 PM CDT SAT MAY 17 2008

...FLOOD WARNING EXTENDED UNTIL MONDAY MORNING...THE FLOOD WARNING 
CONTINUES FOR
  THE ILLINOIS RIVER AT HAVANA. 
* UNTIL MONDAY MORNING...OR UNTIL THE WARNING IS CANCELLED.
* AT  930 PM SATURDAY THE STAGE WAS 14.1 FEET. 
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 14.0 FEET. 
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE TO FALL TO BELOW FLOOD STAGE BY 
  EARLY MONDAY MORNING.
* IMPACT...AT 14.0 FEET...MINOR FLOODING BEGINS TO AGRICULTURAL AREAS 
  NOT PROTECTED BY LEVEES.

&&


                  FLD  OBSERVED         FORECAST 6AM
LOCATION          STG  STG  DAY TIME    SUN    MON    TUE

ILLINOIS RIVER
 HAVANA            14  14.1 SAT 9 PM    14.1   13.9   13.7



$$

ILC009-017-137-169-181751-
/O.EXT.KILX.FL.W.0050.000000T0000Z-080523T0000Z/
/BEAI2.1.ER.080513T1645Z.080518T0230Z.080522T1800Z.NO/
1051 PM CDT SAT MAY 17 2008

...FLOOD WARNING EXTENDED UNTIL THURSDAY EVENING...THE FLOOD WARNING 
CONTINUES FOR
  THE ILLINOIS RIVER AT BEARDSTOWN. 
* UNTIL THURSDAY EVENING...OR UNTIL THE WARNING IS CANCELLED.
* AT  945 PM SATURDAY THE STAGE WAS 14.9 FEET. 
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 14.0 FEET. 
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE TO FALL TO BELOW FLOOD STAGE BY 
  THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
* IMPACT...AT 14.0 FEET...MINOR FLOODING BEGINS TO AGRICULTURAL AREAS 
  NOT PROTECTED BY LEVEES.

&&


                  FLD  OBSERVED         FORECAST 6AM
LOCATION          STG  STG  DAY TIME    SUN    MON    TUE

ILLINOIS RIVER
 BEARDSTOWN        14  14.9 SAT 10 PM   14.8   14.7   14.5



$$
000 
WGUS83 KILX 181405
FLSILX
FLOOD STATEMENT 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL 
905 AM CDT SUN MAY 18 2008

...THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVER IN ILLINOIS...
 
  ILLINOIS RIVER AT HAVANA AFFECTING FULTON AND MASON COUNTIES 
  ILLINOIS RIVER AT BEARDSTOWN AFFECTING BROWN...CASS...MORGAN AND 
  SCHUYLER COUNTIES 

THE FOLLOWING FORECASTS ARE BASED ON OBSERVED PRECIPITATION AND 
PRECIPITATION FORECAST THE NEXT 24 HOURS.


ILC057-125-190405-
/O.EXT.KILX.FL.W.0052.000000T0000Z-080522T0600Z/
/HAVI2.1.ER.080515T2250Z.080518T0930Z.080522T0000Z.NO/
905 AM CDT SUN MAY 18 2008

...FLOOD WARNING EXTENDED UNTIL LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE FLOOD 
WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE ILLINOIS RIVER AT HAVANA. 
* UNTIL LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT...OR UNTIL THE WARNING IS CANCELLED.
* AT  830 AM SUNDAY THE STAGE WAS 14.2 FEET. 
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FORECAST...THE RIVER IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEARLY STEADY FOR THE
  NEXT FEW DAYS.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 14.0 FEET. 
* IMPACT...AT 14.0 FEET...MINOR FLOODING BEGINS TO AGRICULTURAL AREAS 
  NOT PROTECTED BY LEVEES.

&&


                  FLD  OBSERVED         FORECAST 6AM
LOCATION          STG  STG  DAY TIME    MON    TUE    WED

ILLINOIS RIVER
 HAVANA            14  14.2 SUN 8 AM    14.2   14.1   14.1



$$

ILC009-017-137-169-190404-
/O.EXT.KILX.FL.W.0050.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/BEAI2.1.ER.080513T1645Z.080518T0930Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
905 AM CDT SUN MAY 18 2008

...FLOOD WARNING EXTENDED UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE...THE FLOOD WARNING 
CONTINUES FOR
  THE ILLINOIS RIVER AT BEARDSTOWN. 
* UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE...OR UNTIL THE WARNING IS CANCELLED.
* AT  845 AM SUNDAY THE STAGE WAS 14.9 FEET. 
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 14.0 FEET. 
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL REMAIN NEARLY STEADY THROUGH THIS EVENING.
  A SLOW FALL IS FORECAST THEREAFTER.
* IMPACT...AT 14.0 FEET...MINOR FLOODING BEGINS TO AGRICULTURAL AREAS 
  NOT PROTECTED BY LEVEES.

&&


                  FLD  OBSERVED         FORECAST 6AM
LOCATION          STG  STG  DAY TIME    MON    TUE    WED

ILLINOIS RIVER
 BEARDSTOWN        14  14.9 SUN 9 AM    14.8   14.8   14.7



$$
000 
WGUS83 KILX 190229
FLSILX
FLOOD STATEMENT 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL 
929 PM CDT SUN MAY 18 2008

...THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVER IN ILLINOIS...
 
  ILLINOIS RIVER AT HAVANA AFFECTING FULTON AND MASON COUNTIES 
...THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVER IN ILLINOIS..
  ILLINOIS RIVER AT BEARDSTOWN AFFECTING BROWN...CASS...MORGAN AND 
  SCHUYLER COUNTIES 

THE FOLLOWING FORECASTS ARE BASED ON OBSERVED PRECIPITATION AND 
PRECIPITATION FORECAST THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

IF YOU ENCOUNTER A FLOODED ROADWAY...TURN AROUND AND FIND AN 
ALTERNATE ROUTE. STAY TUNED TO LOCAL MEDIA OR NOAA WEATHER RADIO FOR 
LATER STATEMENTS AND FORECASTS.

ILC057-125-191629-
/O.EXT.KILX.FL.W.0052.000000T0000Z-080522T1200Z/
/HAVI2.1.ER.080515T2250Z.080518T0930Z.080522T0600Z.NO/
929 PM CDT SUN MAY 18 2008

...FLOOD WARNING EXTENDED UNTIL THURSDAY MORNING...THE FLOOD WARNING 
CONTINUES FOR
  THE ILLINOIS RIVER AT HAVANA. 
* UNTIL THURSDAY MORNING...OR UNTIL THE WARNING IS CANCELLED.
* AT  830 PM SUNDAY THE STAGE WAS 14.2 FEET. 
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 14.0 FEET. 
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE TO FALL TO BELOW FLOOD STAGE BY 
  EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.
* IMPACT...AT 14.0 FEET...MINOR FLOODING BEGINS TO AGRICULTURAL AREAS 
  NOT PROTECTED BY LEVEES.

&&


                  FLD  OBSERVED         FORECAST 6AM
LOCATION          STG  STG  DAY TIME    MON    TUE    WED

ILLINOIS RIVER
 HAVANA            14  14.2 SUN 8 PM    14.2   14.1   14.1



$$

ILC009-017-137-169-191628-
/O.CON.KILX.FL.W.0050.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/BEAI2.1.ER.080513T1645Z.080518T0930Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
929 PM CDT SUN MAY 18 2008

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE ILLINOIS RIVER AT BEARDSTOWN. 
* UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE...OR UNTIL THE WARNING IS CANCELLED.
* AT  845 PM SUNDAY THE STAGE WAS 14.9 FEET. 
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 14.0 FEET. 
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE RISING TO NEAR 14.9 FEET BY 
  EARLY TOMORROW MORNING.  ADDITIONAL RISES MAY BE POSSIBLE 
  THEREAFTER.
* IMPACT...AT 14.0 FEET...MINOR FLOODING BEGINS TO AGRICULTURAL AREAS 
  NOT PROTECTED BY LEVEES.

&&


                  FLD  OBSERVED         FORECAST 6AM
LOCATION          STG  STG  DAY TIME    MON    TUE    WED

ILLINOIS RIVER
 BEARDSTOWN        14  14.9 SUN 9 PM    14.9   14.8   14.7



$$
000 
WGUS83 KILX 191511
FLSILX
FLOOD STATEMENT 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL 
1011 AM CDT MON MAY 19 2008

...THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVER IN ILLINOIS...
 
  ILLINOIS RIVER AT BEARDSTOWN AFFECTING BROWN...CASS...MORGAN AND 
  SCHUYLER COUNTIES 

  ILLINOIS RIVER AT HAVANA AFFECTING FULTON AND MASON COUNTIES 

THE FOLLOWING FORECASTS ARE BASED ON OBSERVED PRECIPITATION AND 
PRECIPITATION FORECAST THE NEXT 24 HOURS.


ILC057-125-200511-
/O.CON.KILX.FL.W.0052.000000T0000Z-080522T1200Z/
/HAVI2.1.ER.080515T2250Z.080519T0430Z.080522T0600Z.NO/
1011 AM CDT MON MAY 19 2008

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE ILLINOIS RIVER AT HAVANA. 
* UNTIL THURSDAY MORNING...OR UNTIL THE WARNING IS CANCELLED.
* AT  930 AM MONDAY THE STAGE WAS 14.1 FEET. 
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 14.0 FEET. 
* FORECAST...THE RIVER IS EXPECTED TO DECLINE SLOWLY TO BELOW FLOOD 
  STAGE BY THURSDAY MORNING.
* IMPACT...AT 14.0 FEET...MINOR FLOODING BEGINS TO AGRICULTURAL AREAS 
  NOT PROTECTED BY LEVEES.

&&


                  FLD  OBSERVED         FORECAST 6AM
LOCATION          STG  STG  DAY TIME    TUE    WED    THU

ILLINOIS RIVER
 HAVANA            14  14.1 MON 9 AM    14.1   14.1   13.9



$$

ILC009-017-137-169-200510-
/O.EXT.KILX.FL.W.0050.000000T0000Z-080526T0600Z/
/BEAI2.1.ER.080513T1645Z.080518T0930Z.080526T0000Z.NO/
1011 AM CDT MON MAY 19 2008

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE ILLINOIS RIVER AT BEARDSTOWN. 
* UNTIL MONDAY MAY 26...OR UNTIL THE WARNING IS CANCELLED.
* AT  945 AM MONDAY THE STAGE WAS 14.9 FEET. 
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 14.0 FEET. 
* FORECAST...THE RIVER IS EXPECTED TO DROP VERY SLOWLY...REMAINING
  ABOVE FLOOD STAGE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
* IMPACT...AT 14.0 FEET...MINOR FLOODING BEGINS TO AGRICULTURAL AREAS 
  NOT PROTECTED BY LEVEES.

&&


                  FLD  OBSERVED         FORECAST 6AM
LOCATION          STG  STG  DAY TIME    TUE    WED    THU

ILLINOIS RIVER
 BEARDSTOWN        14  14.9 MON 10 AM   14.8   14.7   14.6



$$
000 
WGUS83 KILX 200155
FLSILX
FLOOD STATEMENT 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL 
855 PM CDT MON MAY 19 2008

...THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVER IN ILLINOIS...
 
  ILLINOIS RIVER AT HAVANA AFFECTING FULTON AND MASON COUNTIES 
...THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVER IN ILLINOIS..
  ILLINOIS RIVER AT BEARDSTOWN AFFECTING BROWN...CASS...MORGAN AND 
  SCHUYLER COUNTIES 

THE FOLLOWING FORECASTS ARE BASED ON OBSERVED PRECIPITATION AND 
PRECIPITATION FORECAST THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

IF YOU ENCOUNTER A FLOODED ROADWAY...TURN AROUND AND FIND AN 
ALTERNATE ROUTE. STAY TUNED TO LOCAL MEDIA OR NOAA WEATHER RADIO FOR 
LATER STATEMENTS AND FORECASTS.

ILC057-125-201555-
/O.EXT.KILX.FL.W.0052.000000T0000Z-080521T1200Z/
/HAVI2.1.ER.080515T2250Z.080519T0430Z.080521T0600Z.NO/
855 PM CDT MON MAY 19 2008

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE ILLINOIS RIVER AT HAVANA. 
* UNTIL WEDNESDAY MORNING...OR UNTIL THE WARNING IS CANCELLED.
* AT  830 PM MONDAY THE STAGE WAS 14.1 FEET. 
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 14.0 FEET. 
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE TO FALL TO BELOW FLOOD STAGE BY 
  EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
* IMPACT...AT 14.0 FEET...MINOR FLOODING BEGINS TO AGRICULTURAL AREAS 
  NOT PROTECTED BY LEVEES.

&&


                  FLD  OBSERVED         FORECAST 6AM
LOCATION          STG  STG  DAY TIME    TUE    WED    THU

ILLINOIS RIVER
 HAVANA            14  14.1 MON 8 PM    14.1   13.9   13.7



$$

ILC009-017-137-169-201554-
/O.CON.KILX.FL.W.0050.000000T0000Z-080526T0600Z/
/BEAI2.1.ER.080513T1645Z.080518T0930Z.080526T0000Z.NO/
855 PM CDT MON MAY 19 2008

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE ILLINOIS RIVER AT BEARDSTOWN. 
* UNTIL MONDAY MAY 26...OR UNTIL THE WARNING IS CANCELLED.
* AT  845 PM MONDAY THE STAGE WAS 14.8 FEET. 
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 14.0 FEET. 
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE TO FALL TO BELOW FLOOD STAGE BY 
  SUNDAY EVENING.
* IMPACT...AT 14.0 FEET...MINOR FLOODING BEGINS TO AGRICULTURAL AREAS 
  NOT PROTECTED BY LEVEES.

&&


                  FLD  OBSERVED         FORECAST 6AM
LOCATION          STG  STG  DAY TIME    TUE    WED    THU

ILLINOIS RIVER
 BEARDSTOWN        14  14.8 MON 9 PM    14.8   14.7   14.6



$$
000 
WGUS83 KILX 201625
FLSILX
FLOOD STATEMENT 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL 
1125 AM CDT TUE MAY 20 2008

...THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVER IN ILLINOIS...
 
  ILLINOIS RIVER AT HAVANA AFFECTING FULTON AND MASON COUNTIES 
  ILLINOIS RIVER AT BEARDSTOWN AFFECTING BROWN...CASS...MORGAN AND 
  SCHUYLER COUNTIES 

THE FOLLOWING FORECASTS ARE BASED ON OBSERVED PRECIPITATION AND 
PRECIPITATION FORECAST THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

IF YOU ENCOUNTER A FLOODED ROADWAY...TURN AROUND AND FIND AN 
ALTERNATE ROUTE. STAY TUNED TO LOCAL MEDIA OR NOAA WEATHER RADIO FOR 
LATER STATEMENTS AND FORECASTS.

ILC057-125-202130-
/O.EXT.KILX.FL.W.0052.000000T0000Z-080520T2130Z/
/HAVI2.1.ER.080515T2250Z.080519T0430Z.080520T1530Z.NO/
1125 AM CDT TUE MAY 20 2008

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE ILLINOIS RIVER AT HAVANA. 
* UNTIL THIS AFTERNOON...OR UNTIL THE WARNING IS CANCELLED.
* AT 1030 AM TUESDAY THE STAGE WAS 14.0 FEET. 
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND NONFLOOD FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 14.0 FEET. 
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE TO FALL TO BELOW FLOOD STAGE BY 
  THIS MORNING.
* IMPACT...AT 14.0 FEET...MINOR FLOODING BEGINS TO AGRICULTURAL AREAS 
  NOT PROTECTED BY LEVEES.

&&


                  FLD  OBSERVED         FORECAST 6AM
LOCATION          STG  STG  DAY TIME    WED    THU    FRI

ILLINOIS RIVER
 HAVANA            14  14.0 TUE 10 AM   13.9   13.8   13.6



$$

ILC009-017-137-169-210624-
/O.EXT.KILX.FL.W.0050.000000T0000Z-080525T1200Z/
/BEAI2.1.ER.080513T1645Z.080518T0930Z.080525T0600Z.NO/
1125 AM CDT TUE MAY 20 2008

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE ILLINOIS RIVER AT BEARDSTOWN. 
* UNTIL SUNDAY MORNING...OR UNTIL THE WARNING IS CANCELLED.
* AT 1045 AM TUESDAY THE STAGE WAS 14.8 FEET. 
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 14.0 FEET. 
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE TO FALL TO BELOW FLOOD STAGE BY 
  EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.
* IMPACT...AT 14.0 FEET...MINOR FLOODING BEGINS TO AGRICULTURAL AREAS 
  NOT PROTECTED BY LEVEES.

&&


                  FLD  OBSERVED         FORECAST 6AM
LOCATION          STG  STG  DAY TIME    WED    THU    FRI

ILLINOIS RIVER
 BEARDSTOWN        14  14.8 TUE 11 AM   14.7   14.6   14.4



$$

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this river flood warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Lincoln, IL wrote its last area forecast discussion before this river flood warning went out at May 15, 6:39 AM CDT, 3 hours 11 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, May 15, 6:39 AM CDT, 3 hours 11 minutes before
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
639 AM CDT THU MAY 15 2008

.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 304 AM CDT THU MAY 15 2008
PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS STILL CENTER ON NORTHWESTWARD EXTENT OF
MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION THROUGH THIS EVENING...AND TIMING OF
PERIODIC SHOWER CHANCES THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS UPPER LEVEL
TROUGHING KEEPS US IN A COOLER NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN FOR SEVERAL
DAYS.

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
MORNING SFC ANALYSIS HAD MODEST HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER LAKE
MICHIGAN...AND A DISORGANIZED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHEAST
TEXAS. THE BOUNDARY/FRONT THAT MOVED THROUGH THE AREA 24 TO 36 HRS
AGO WAS STILL STALLED OUT JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA. MSAS SFC THETA
FIELDS INDICATED THE ILL-DEFINED BOUNDARY WAS LOCATED ALONG THE
OHIO RIVER VALLEY WESTWARD TOWARDS SOUTHWESTERN MISSOURI.

THE CUTOFF LOW THAT WAS HANGING OUT IN THE DESERT SOUTHWEST THE
PAST FEW DAYS KICKED OFF INTO THE PLAINS AS AN OPEN TROUGH
YESTERDAY...GIVING A BOUT OF SEVERE WEATHER TO CENTRAL AND
EASTERN TEXAS INCLUDING SOME VERY IMPRESSIVE SUPERCELLS AT THE
START OF THIS SHIFT. THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WITH THIS SYSTEM
WILL REMAIN WELL TO SOUTH OF OUR AREA.

HOWEVER...THIS WAVE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD TODAY AND SHEAR
OUT ALONG THE OHIO VALLEY. THE WEAK SFC LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
SYSTEM WILL REMAIN JUST SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER...MORE OR LESS
RIPPLING ALONG THE PRE-EXISTING WEAK STATIONARY BOUNDARY. ENOUGH
MID-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE PUSHED UP AND OVER THE FRONT TO BRING A
GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS ALONG/SOUTH OF I-72 BY THIS AFTERNOON.

OVERALL EXPECTING THIS TO BE A LOW QPF EVENT PARTICULARLY NORTH
OF I-70. 00Z NAM/GEM-REGIONAL AND SUITE OF 20KM ARW RUNS ALL KEEP
MEASURABLE PRECIP ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-72...AS DRIER AIR PREVAILS
IN LOW LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW FARTHER TO THE NORTH.

HOWEVER...OBSERVATIONS HAVE INDICATED LIGHT MEASURABLE PRECIP IS
ALREADY A LITTLE FARTHER TO THE NORTH THAN THE AFOREMENTIONED 00Z
MODELS INDICATED. ALSO...SAT AND SFC OBS INDICATE THERE IS SOME
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO OUR EAST AS EVIDENCED BY LOW CLOUDS OVER
OHIO AND WESTERN INDIANA. 00Z NAM INDICATES SOME OF THIS MOISTURE
WILL DRIFT WESTWARD INTO THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AS STRONGER
EASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW SETS UP. THE MOISTURE IS IN A FAIRLY
SHALLOW LAYER AND DIURNAL MIXING WILL ALLOW NEAR-SFC LAYER BELOW
2500 FEET OR SO TO DRY OUT VIA MIXING BY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...MODEL
SOUNDINGS INDICATE SHALLOW MOIST LAYER AROUND 850-900 MB AT CMI BY
18Z... WHILE MID-LEVEL MOISTURE ABOVE 700 MB FILLS IN FROM THE
SOUTH. SOUNDINGS STILL SHOW A DRY LAYER IN BETWEEN...BUT IT IS NOT
ENTIRELY OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT SOME SHOWERS COULD DEVELOP AS
FAR NORTH AS THE ILLINOIS RIVER THIS AFTERNOON. PRECIP AMOUNTS
THIS FAR NORTH WILL BE IN THE 0.01 TO 0.05 INCH RANGE...SO
CERTAINLY NOT EXPECTING A WASHOUT ACROSS THE NORTH BY ANY
MEANS... DESPITE THE HIGH-CHANCE POPS.

NORTHWEST FLOW SETS UP FRIDAY AS TROUGHING SETS UP OVER THE GREAT
LAKES. AS PREVIOUS SHIFTS HAVE MENTIONED...SEVERAL DISTURBANCES OF
VARYING INTENSITY WILL BE DROPPING INTO THE MEAN TROUGH THROUGH
THE WEEKEND.

THE FIRST SUCH DISTURBANCE LOOKS TO DROP THROUGH ON FRIDAY...BUT
WITH LITTLE MOISTURE TO WORK WITH...EXPECT JUST INCREASING CLOUDS
IN THE AFTERNOON WITH JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE POP IN THE GRIDS THAT
WILL NOT SHOW UP IN THE TEXT PRODUCTS.

SATURDAY MORNING A STRONGER DISTURBANCE WILL ROTATE ACROSS LAKE
SUPERIOR AND ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN. MODELS HAD BEEN
SHOWING SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH RESPECT TO THE STRENGTH AND TRACK OF
THIS SYSTEM. 00Z NAM WAS BY FAR THE STRONGEST...RESULTING IN A
FAIRLY DEEP SFC LOW OVER LAKE HURON BY 12Z SAT. NCEP DISMISSED
THIS RUN AS AN OUTLIER...BUT THE 00Z GFS ENSEMBLES AND SREF STILL
INDICATE SOME SPREAD WITH THIS SYSTEM...AND THE 00Z ECMWF HAS
TRENDED WESTWARD AND STRONGER WITH THIS SYSTEM AS WELL...AND SEEMS
TO BE A GOOD MIDDLE GROUND SOLUTION TO WORK WITH. WITH THIS IN
MIND...WE INCREASED THE AREAL EXTENT OF MENTIONABLE POPS ON
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS THIS UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM AND ATTENDANT
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT SWEEP THROUGH THE REGION. THE OUTLIER NAM
SUGGESTED EVEN THE POSSIBILITY OF THUNDER ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
AREAS OF THE CWA SATURDAY AFTERNOON...GIVEN HIGHER LOW LEVEL
DEWPOINTS SOUTH OF I-72. WHILE THE NAM SFC DEWPOINTS LOOK
OVERDONE...WILL NOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT ISOLATED THUNDER ACROSS
THIS AREA. NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERNS ARE NOTORIOUSLY DIFFICULT TO
FORECAST...FOR BOTH HUMANS AND MODELS ALIKE...OFTEN STRONGER
IMPULSES CAN POP UP WITHIN THE 36-60 HR TIME FRAME...SO THE
TENDENCY FOR SOME MODELS TO SHOW A STRONGER SYSTEM IS SOMETHING TO
BE WATCHED CAREFULLY OVER THE NEXT CYCLE OR TWO.

LONG TERM...SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES THROUGH SUNDAY WITH CONTINUED COOLER
TEMPERATURES...BUT LESS RISK OF PRECIPITATION BEHIND SATURDAYS
SYSTEM. ECMWF OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS HAS BEEN A LITTLE
ERRATIC WITH WESTWARD EXTENT OF TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES. AS
MENTIONED YESTERDAY...THIS RESULTED IN BIG DIFFERENCES OF OPINION
IN TEMPERATURES FOR SUNDAY...BUT THE LATEST RUN HAS FALLEN MORE
INTO LINE WITH THE CONSENSUS...WHICH POINTS TO KEEPING THINGS ON
THE COOLER SIDE BEHIND SATURDAYS SYSTEM.

FLOW BEGINS TO SHIFT TO A MORE ZONAL PATTERN BY MONDAY...BUT THE
LONG RANGE SOLUTIONS ARE AN ABSOLUTE MESS BEYOND DAY 5. TROUGHING
IS STILL FAVORED OVER THE NORTHEAST AND WEST COAST...WITH RIDGING
IN BETWEEN... BUT THERE ARE MAJOR DIFFERENCES WITH THE
LONGITUDINAL LOCATION OF THESE FEATURES WHICH WILL DETERMINE
WHETHER CENTRAL ILLINOIS IS MORE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF RIDGING TO
OUR WEST OR THE TROUGHING TO OUR EAST. EVEN THE TYPICALLY MORE
STABLE ECMWF HAS BEEN VERY ERRATIC IN THE LONG RANGE OF LATE.

HARDIMAN

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED 630 AM CDT THU MAY 15 2008

BAND OF RAIN ACRS CNTRL MO CONTINUED TO TRACK SLOWLY NE EARLY THIS
MRNG. MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED INTO EARLY THIS AFTN AHEAD
OF THE RAIN WITH CIGS SLOWLY LOWERING ONCE THE RAIN DVLPS IN OUR
AREA. ONE POTENTIAL PROBLEM WILL BE OVER IN CMI THIS MRNG AS
SATELLITE AND SFC OBS INDICATE LOWER/MVFR CIGS HAVE MOVED WSW INTO
WRN INDIANA THANKS TO THE NE WINDS JUST OFF THE SFC. FCST SOUNDINGS
AND SHORT TERM HIRES MODEL DATA SUGGEST THE VERY DRY LOW LVL NELY
FLOW WL EVENTUALLY ERODE THE WRN EDGES OF THE CLOUD DECK THIS MRNG.
FOR NOW...WL CARRY SCATTERED 1200 AT CMI AND WATCH THE EARLY MRNG
TRENDS TO SEE IF THE LEADING EDGE OF THE CLOUDS CONTINUE TO MARCH
WWD. LATEST OB OUT OF DANVILLE REPORTING SCATTERED 900 FEET.

THE NRN EDGE OF THE RAIN WL CONTINUE TO PUSH INTO CNTRL IL THIS MRNG
BUT WL HAVE AN INCREASINGLY DIFFICULT TIME MAKING MUCH PAST I-74 LATE
THIS MRNG OR EARLY THIS AFTN. WL CARRY VCNTY SHOWERS AS FAR NE AS BMI
BUT KEEP THE RAIN SOUTH OF PIA TODAY. OTHER THAN THE POTENTIAL FOR
A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS THIS MRNG IN CMI...IT APPEARS THE LOWER
CIGS/VSBYS WL REMAIN SOUTH WHERE THE STEADIER RAINS WL OCCUR. SFC WNDS
WL BE OUT OF THE NE AT LESS THAN 15KTS TODAY...AND BACK INTO THE NORTH
THIS EVENING AS THE STORM SYSTEM TO OUR SOUTH PULLS AWAY FROM THE AREA.
ANY LINGERING MOISTURE/CLOUDS SHOULD BEGIN TO MOVE OUT LATER THIS EVE
WITH FCST SOUNDINGS NOT SHOWING MUCH POTENTIAL FOR FOG OVRNGT. WL
HAVE TO WATCH THIS...ESP IN AREAS THAT DO RECEIVE SOME MEASUREABLE
RAIN TODAY. IF CLOUDS CLEAR OUT SOONER THAN EXPECTED...THE COMBINATION
OF RESIDUAL LOW LVL MOISTURE...LIGHT WINDS AND LACK OF CLOUD COVER
MAY LEAD TO SOME PATCHY GROUND FOG FORMATION BY FRI MRNG. FOR NOW
WL KEEP THE MENTION OF FOG OUT LATE IN THE PERIOD.

SMITH
&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
Hazardous weather outlook, May 15, 5:40 AM CDT, 4 hours 10 minutes before
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
540 AM CDT THU MAY 15 2008

ILZ040-047-049-050-161100-
CASS-MORGAN-SCHUYLER-SCOTT-
540 AM CDT THU MAY 15 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
ILLINOIS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

MINOR FLOODING IS EXPECTED ALONG THE ILLINOIS RIVER AT
BEARDSTOWN FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

A SERIES OF FAST MOVING WEATHER DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE MIDWEST SATURDAY AND AGAIN LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY
BRINGING A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED THROUGH TONIGHT.

ILZ027>031-036>038-041>046-048-051-053-161100-
CHAMPAIGN-DE WITT-FULTON-KNOX-LOGAN-MACON-MARSHALL-MASON-MCLEAN-
MENARD-PEORIA-PIATT-SANGAMON-STARK-TAZEWELL-VERMILION-WOODFORD-
540 AM CDT THU MAY 15 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
ILLINOIS AND EAST CENTRAL ILLINOIS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

A SERIES OF FAST MOVING WEATHER DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE MIDWEST SATURDAY AND AGAIN LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY
BRINGING A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED THROUGH TONIGHT.

ILZ052-054>057-061>063-066>068-071>073-161100-
CHRISTIAN-CLARK-CLAY-COLES-CRAWFORD-CUMBERLAND-DOUGLAS-EDGAR-
EFFINGHAM-JASPER-LAWRENCE-MOULTRIE-RICHLAND-SHELBY-
540 AM CDT THU MAY 15 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
ILLINOIS...EAST CENTRAL ILLINOIS AND SOUTHEAST ILLINOIS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY
SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70. NO SEVERE WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED WITH ANY
STORMS THAT DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON.

MINOR FLOODING WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE LITTLE WABASH AND EMBARRAS
RIVERS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

A SERIES OF FAST MOVING WEATHER DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE MIDWEST SATURDAY AND AGAIN LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY
BRINGING A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED THROUGH TONIGHT.

SMITH

Nearby

River Flood Warnings in Illinois, 2008Every river flood warning in 2008

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive; the gauge from the NWS water service and the USGS.