Flash Flood Watch 10, NWS Lincoln, IL

Cass County, IL, Champaign County, IL, Christian County, IL, Clark County, IL, Clay County, IL, Coles County, IL, Crawford County, IL, Cumberland County, IL, DeWitt County, IL, Douglas County, IL, Edgar County, IL, Effingham County, IL, Fulton County, IL, Jasper County, IL, Knox County, IL, Lawrence County, IL, Logan County, IL, Macon County, IL, Marshall County, IL, Mason County, IL, McLean County, IL, Menard County, IL, Morgan County, IL, Moultrie County, IL, Peoria County, IL, Piatt County, IL, Richland County, IL, Sangamon County, IL, Schuyler County, IL, Scott County, IL, Shelby County, IL, Stark County, IL, Tazewell County, IL, Vermilion County, IL, Woodford County, IL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
300 PM CDT FRI SEP 12 2008

.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 300 PM CDT FRI SEP 12 2008

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...
DEEP TROPICAL SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER FLOW CONTINUES FROM WEST TEXAS
INTO THE CORN BELT THIS AFTERNOON. RAIN HAS BEEN COMMON ACROSS THE
NORTHERN HALF OF ILLINOIS ALONG AND NORTH OF A WARM FRONT THAT
EXTENDS FROM COLUMBIA MISSOURI TO INDIANAPOLIS. AS THE UPPER FLOW
BACKS TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...MOST OF THE STEADY RAIN SHOULD SHIFT
NORTHWARD WITH THE WARM FRONT. HOWEVER...AIRMASS WILL REMAIN VERY
MOIST AND UNCAPPED FURTHER SOUTH...WHICH WILL PROMOTE THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ILLINOIS THIS EVENING.
SOME INSTABILITY MAY COMBINE WITH ADEQUATE LOW LEVEL SHEAR TO CAUSE
ISOLATED STORMS TO PRODUCE PERHAPS SOME STRONG WINDS UNTIL THE SUN
GOES DOWN. FURTHERN NORTH...THE HEAVIEST QPF WITH THE INITIAL UPPER
SHORTWAVE NOW COMING INTO EASTERN KANSAS WILL BE ACROSS IOWA...
NORTHERN ILLINOIS...AND SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. AS THE ASSOCIATED
SURFACE LOW TRACKS INTO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN SATURDAY AFTERNOON...IT
WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT INTO CENTRAL ILLINOIS WHICH WILL BECOME
STATIONARY SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.

THE NHC TRACK FOR HURRICANE IKE TAKES ITS REMAINS TO NORTHWESTERN
ARKANSAS BY 12Z SUNDAY AND FROM THERE IT WILL ACCELERATE
NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL OR SOUTHERN ILLINOIS.
THEREFORE RAIN WILL BECOME HEAVY BEGINING EARLY SATURDAY EVENING
WELL AHEAD OF IKE AND CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY. EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
AMOUNTS APPEAR LIKELY...WITH THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY OF FLOODING
ALONG AND SOUTH OF A JACKSONVILLE TO BLOOMINGTON LINE. THE POTENTIAL
EXISTS FOR STORM TOTAL RAINFALL IN EXCESS OF 5 INCHES NEAR THE
INTERSTATE 55 CORRIDOR BEFORE THE SYSTEM EXITS THE REGION SUNDAY
NIGHT. THE GROUND IN THESE AREAS WILL BE SATURATED FROM RAINFALL
FROM THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...SO BOTH RIVER FLOODING AND FLASH
FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE. WITH THIS IN MIND...WILL ISSUE A FLASH
FLOOD WATCH THAT WILL BEGIN 4PM SAT AND EXTEND UNTIL 7 PM SUNDAY.

THE GFS MODEL HAS BEEN A SLOW OUTLIER WITH THE SPEED OF IKE THROUGH
THE OHIO VALLEY...BUT ITS TIMING HAS PRETTY MUCH CAUGHT UP WITH THE
ECMWF AND OTHER DYNAMIC MODELS. THIS SUGGESTS AN END TO THE
PRECIPITATION SUNDAY EVENING. WILL HANG ONTO SLIGHT CHANCE AND
CHANCE POPS THROUGH MONDAY MORNING IN CASE IKE SPRINGS ANY SURPRISES
TIMING-WISE.

LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
DRY WEATHER EXPECTED FOR THE MIDDLE THROUGH END OF NEXT WEEK. UPPER
RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE WESTERN STATES PLACING THE MIDWEST WITHIN
DRY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW. ONE WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA IN
THE THURSDAY/FRIDAY TIME FRAME...BUT A PERSISTENT SURFACE RIDGE FROM
THE NORTHEAST STATES INTO THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES WILL IMPEDE ITS
SOUTHWARD PROGRESS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED 1250 PM CDT FRI SEP 12 2008

AVIATION FORECAST STILL QUITE A MESS AS THE NEXT 24 HOURS ARE LIKELY
TO BE A NASTY BLEND OF LOW CIGS AND BAD VSBYS. MUCH OF THE FORECAST
REMAINING IN THE MVFR/IFR RANGE FOR PREDOMINANT WEATHER...WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF SRN TERMINALS WHICH MAY REACH VFR OFF AND ON BEFORE
MIDNIGHT AS THE BAND OF PRECIP LIFTS TO THE NORTH. FCST ASSUMES A
COUPLE OF BREAKS...AFTER MIDNIGHT AND BEFORE THE NEXT ROUND OF
PRECIP BEGINS LATER TOMORROW MORNING. REDUCED VISIBILITIES TO 1SM IN
AREAS WHERE THE CLOUDS MIGHT BREAK OR LIFT EVEN SOMEWHAT AS PLENTY
OF LLVL MOISTURE COULD HELP WITH FOG DEVELOPMENT.

HJS
&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR
ILZ038-042>057-061>063-066>068-071>073.

&&

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1136 AM CDT FRI SEP 12 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1129 AM     HEAVY RAIN       4 W PANA                39.39N 89.15W
09/12/2008  M3.19 INCH       CHRISTIAN          IL   MESONET

            TOTAL RAINFALL SO FAR FOR TODAY.

&&

DRH