Flash Flood Warning 32, NWS Lincoln, IL

000 
WGUS73 KILX 110108
FFSILX

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
802 PM CDT TUE JUN 10 2008

ILC101-110112-
/O.EXP.KILX.FF.W.0032.000000T0000Z-080611T0100Z/
LAWRENCE-
802 PM CDT TUE JUN 10 2008

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING HAS EXPIRED FOR EASTERN LAWRENCE COUNTY...

THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR EASTERN LAWRENCE COUNTY HAS BEEN ALLOWED 
TO EXPIRE. NO ADDITIONAL LEVEE FAILURES HAVE BEEN REPORTED SINCE 
EARLIER THIS MORNING AND NO ADDITIONAL RAINFALL IS EXPECTED OVER THE 
NEXT 24 HOURS. 

HOWEVER...AN AREAL FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN AFFECT FOR LAWRENCE 
COUTY AND SURROUNDING AREAS OF SOUTHEAST ILLINOIS UNTIL TOMORROW 
EVENING. NUMEROUS RURAL ROADS AND LOW LYING AREAS ACROSS THE WARNED 
AREA ARE STILL UNDER WATER.

TO REPORT FLOODING...HAVE THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY RELAY 
YOUR REPORT TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

LAT...LON 3867 8755 3865 8761 3862 8762 3860 8761
      3857 8765 3857 8770 3885 8768 3886 8753
      3880 8750 3872 8750
TIME...MOT...LOC 1856Z 180DEG 0KT 3875 8763

$$

AUTEN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1243 PM CDT TUE JUN 10 2008

.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 1040 AM CDT TUE JUN 10 2008

MORNING SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
INTO THE MIDWEST...WHILE FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS PUSHED WELL TO THE
E/SE INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. UPPER SHORT-WAVE EVIDENT ON WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY HAS TRACKED INTO THE GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY...WITH
SYNOPTIC SUBSIDENCE/DRYING IN ITS WAKE ACROSS CENTRAL ILLINOIS.
WILL LIKELY SEE FEW-SCT DIURNAL CU LATER THIS MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON...BUT SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY SUNNY ACROSS THE BOARD
FOR THE BALANCE OF THE DAY. HAVE UPDATED GRIDS TO REDUCE CLOUD COVER
AND REMOVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE NORTH DURING THE MORNING.
15Z TEMPS ARE MAINLY IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S ACROSS THE
AREA...WELL ON THEIR WAY TO AFTERNOON READINGS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE
80S. HAVE TWEAKED AFTERNOON HIGHS AND HOURLY TEMPS JUST A
BIT...BUT NOT ENOUGH TO MAKE ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE GOING
FORECAST. WILL SEND OUT UPDATED ZONES SHORTLY TO REMOVE MORNING WORDING.

BARNES
&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED 1243 PM CDT TUE JUN 10 2008

HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER THROUGH THE
ENTIRE 18Z TAF PERIOD.  W/SW WINDS OF BETWEEN 10 AND 20KT WILL
CONTINUE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON UNDER A MOSTLY CLEAR
SKY.  MAY SEE A FEW-SCT DIURNAL CU POP UP AROUND THE AREA OVER THE
NEXT HOUR OR TWO...BUT THESE WILL QUICKLY FADE AWAY TOWARD SUNSET.
CLEAR SKIES WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS WELL.  AS THE
HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY SHIFTS EAST OF THE REGION...GUSTY SOUTHERLY
WINDS WILL DEVELOP AFTER 14Z.

BARNES
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 233 AM CDT TUE JUN 10 2008

COUPLE OF SHORT WAVES MOVING THROUGH THE REGION. SOME LINGERING POST
FRONTAL SHOWERS HEADING EAST INTO INDIANA...WHILE ONE OF THOSE SHORT
WAVES KICKING UP A SMALL AREA THUNDERSTORMS TO THE NW. THESE SHOWERS
HEADED FOR ILX NRN COUNTIES...AND WILL BE A LAST MINUTE CALL FOR THE
FORECAST PACKAGE. OTHER THAN THAT...MAIN FORECAST PROBLEMS ARE THE
TEMPS THROUGH THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS UNTIL NEXT SYSTEM MOVES INTO
MIDWEST LATER THURSDAY. FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THE NAM AND GFS FOR
THE MOST PART.

SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TOMORROW...
MAIN ISSUE IS THE SHORT WAVE ROTATING THROUGH THE MIDWEST BRINGING
SHOWERS TO EASTERN IA AND ACROSS THE MISS RIVER VALLEY. NONE OF THE
SHORT RANGE MODELS HAVE A GOOD GRIP ON THE ACTIVITY. BEST CONVECTION
WITH THOSE SHOWERS IS TRANSLATING SOMEWHAT TO THE NRN TIER OF THE
CLUSTER. THAT BEING SAID...SHOWERS COULD BE VERY SCATTERED BY THE
TIME 12Z ROLLS AROUND AND THE FORECAST IS VALID. ON THE OTHER SIDE
OF THE CWA...THERE IS NEW DEVELOPMENT ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE
ACTIVITY ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE STATE. PROGRESSION OF THE UPPER
WAVE IS A BIT SLOWER IN GETTING OUT OF HERE...AND WILL BE ADDED TO
THE FORECAST FOR THE MORNING. DRYING OUT IN THE EVENING WILL START A
TEMPORARY DRYING TREND FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WITH WARM TEMPS.

LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
SYSTEM THAT WAS PREVIOUSLY CONFINED TO MOSTLY THURSDAY...HAS NOW
DELAYED SOMEWHAT TO MOSTLY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING AND FRIDAY. NEXT
COUPLE OF MODEL RUNS MAY DELAY THE ONSET OF THURSDAYS RAIN TO AFTER
00Z THURS NIGHT. IN THE MEANTIME...HAVE POPS BEGINNING IN THE NW ON
THURSDAY...INCREASING THROUGH THE NIGHT ACROSS THE CWA UNTIL FRIDAY
BEING MORE WIDESPREAD. WITH SLOWING TREND...HAVE KEPT POPS DOWN TO
CHANCE THOUGH THE EXISTENCE OF THE SYSTEM AND ITS ASSOCIATED PRECIP
IS NOT IN QUESTION. WILL BE UPPING POPS AS TIME GROWS CLOSER.
SATURDAY HAS LINGERING SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE SE...AND HAVE KEPT
THEM...ESPECIALLY WITH THE SLOWING OF THE FRONT.

HJS

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1144 AM CDT TUE JUN 10 2008

ILZ027>031-037-038-045-046-111100-
CHAMPAIGN-KNOX-MARSHALL-MCLEAN-PEORIA-STARK-TAZEWELL-VERMILION-
WOODFORD-
1144 AM CDT TUE JUN 10 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
ILLINOIS AND EAST CENTRAL ILLINOIS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FROM THURSDAY NIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE NEXT COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE
MIDWEST. THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR SEVERE WEATHER...SO KEEP ABREAST
OF THE LATEST FORECASTS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED THROUGH TONIGHT.

ILZ036-040>044-047>053-111100-
CASS-CHRISTIAN-DE WITT-FULTON-LOGAN-MACON-MASON-MENARD-MORGAN-
PIATT-SANGAMON-SCHUYLER-SCOTT-
1144 AM CDT TUE JUN 10 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
ILLINOIS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

FLOODING WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE ILLINOIS AND SANGAMON RIVER
BASINS FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FROM THURSDAY NIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE NEXT COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE
MIDWEST. THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR SEVERE WEATHER...SO KEEP ABREAST
OF THE LATEST FORECASTS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED THROUGH TONIGHT.

ILZ054>057-061>063-066>068-071>073-111100-
CLARK-CLAY-COLES-CRAWFORD-CUMBERLAND-DOUGLAS-EDGAR-EFFINGHAM-
JASPER-LAWRENCE-MOULTRIE-RICHLAND-SHELBY-
1144 AM CDT TUE JUN 10 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
ILLINOIS...EAST CENTRAL ILLINOIS AND SOUTHEAST ILLINOIS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

EXTENSIVE RUNOFF FLOODING FROM PREVIOUS RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE
OVER MANY AREAS OF EASTERN AND SOUTHEASTERN ILLINOIS THROUGH AT
LEAST TONIGHT. IN ADDITION...SEVERAL RIVERS AND STREAMS WILL
CONTINUE OUT OF THEIR BANKS INCLUDING THE WABASH...LITTLE
WABASH...AND EMBARRAS RIVERS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FROM THURSDAY NIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE NEXT COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE
MIDWEST. THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR SEVERE WEATHER...SO KEEP ABREAST
OF THE LATEST FORECASTS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED THROUGH TONIGHT.

BARNES

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
809 AM CDT TUE JUN 10 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0200 PM     HAIL             5 SSE CLAY CITY         38.62N 88.32W
06/09/2008  M1.00 INCH       CLAY               IL   CO-OP OBSERVER

            MOSTLY PENNY SIZED HAIL...SOME HAIL STONES UP TO QUARTER
            SIZED

&&

KELLY