Areal Flood Warning 2, NWS Lincoln, IL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
722 AM CDT THU MAY 8 2008

.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 306 AM CDT THU MAY 8 2008
FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS THE MIDSECTION OF ILLINOIS THIS
MORNING AS SFC LOW BEGINS TO MOVE OUT OF THE SRN PLAINS.
WIDESPREAD AREA OF CLOUDS ON IR SAT IMAGERY...FROM THE GREAT LAKES
TO THE GULF COAST. ON RADAR MOSAIC...PRECIP SPREAD OVER ENTIRE CWA
SAVE NW OF THE ILLINOIS RIVER VALLEY. HEAVIEST PRECIP SEEMING TO
LINE UP ALONG INTERSTATE 57 THIS MORNING... APPROXIMATELY SAME
LOCATION AS THE EFFECTIVE FRONT. THROUGHOUT THE EVENING... PRECIP
HAS FOCUSED ALONG THE BOUNDARY...PUNCHED UP...THEN DIED BACK DOWN.
THE CYCLE HAS REPEATED IN SEVERAL SLIGHTLY DIFFERENT
LOCATIONS...KEEPING THE COLLECTIVE QPF DOWN FOR ANY ONE LOCATION.
SERN COUNTIES BEGINNING TO RECOVER FROM THE DELUGE OF RAIN
YESTERDAY...AND MAIN ISSUES FOR THE FORECAST REMAIN THE PASSING OF
THIS SFC AND UPPER LEVEL LOW...AND THE NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIP
LATER IN THE WEEKEND. MODELS IN AGREEMENT FOR THE MOST PART...WITH
SOME DIFFERENCES ABOUT THE LOCATION OF THE DEVELOPING SFC LOW ON
SAT NIGHT. HAVE GONE WITH A BLEND THROUGH THE MED RANGE...LEANING
MORE  TOWARDS THE LOCATION OF THE GFS LOW.

SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TOMORROW...
WET DAY CONTINUES FOR AREAS SE OF THE ILLINOIS RIVER VALLEY. RAIN
TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING AND MOST OF THE AFTERNOON AS THE
LOW ZIPS THROUGH THE REGION BY 00Z. MAJORITY OF PRECIP SHOULD HAVE
ENDED BY THEN...HAVE PULLED EVENING POPS ALTOGETHER. POSSIBILITY
OF THINNER CLOUD COVER TO THE NW DROPPING TEMPS INTO THE LOWER
40S THERE...CONSIDERABLY WARMER IN THE FAR SE WHERE THE SKIES WILL
BE MUCH SLOWER TO CLEAR WITHIN THE WRAP AROUND OF THE EXITING LOW.
TEMPS FOR TOMORROW STAYING IN THE 60S AS NRLY WINDS AND SOME
CLOUD COVER TEMPER ANY SUNSHINE. ISSUES START WITH FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AS THE NAM/WRF AND GFS ARE BOTH SPINNING A WEAK SHORT
WAVE OVER THE SRN HALF OF THE CWA FRIDAY AFTERNOON. AT THIS
POINT...WILL KEEP THE AFTERNOON DRY AS LAYER RH A BIT SUSPECT
ADVECTING FROM THE NW. WILL HAVE TO WATCH TO SEE IF 12Z RUN
MAINTAINS THIS WAVE.

LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
SATURDAY A LITTLE BIT LESS OF A SOURCE OF TROUBLE FOR THE FORECAST
WITH THIS RUN OF MODELS. GFS LOOKS DRY UNTIL UPPER TROF SAT NIGHT
MOVES THROUGH IN AMPLIFIED FLOW. ECMWF STILL LOOKS AS IF ATTEMPTING
A TRANSITION FROM A ZONAL FLOW ALOFT TO SOMETHING CLOSER TO THE
GFS...AND MUCH WETTER THAN THE GFS. KEEPING A RATHER
CONSERVATIVE FORECAST WITH BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIP SAT NIGHT AND
SUNDAY EARLY. SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...BACK TO DRY AND BEGINNING A
WEAK WARMING TREND.

HJS

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED 616 AM CDT THU MAY 8 2008

RADAR AND SYSTEM LOOPS CONTINUE TO SHOW MINOR WAVES ROTATING
AROUND THE MAIN UPPER LOW OVER SOUTH CENTRAL MO AND NORTH CENTRAL
AR. THE WAVES CONTINUE TO ENHANCE AND REDEVELOP THE PCPN OVER
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST IL. SURFACE ALSO CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST OVER
SOUTHERN MO...MUCH AS PROGS INDICATE. TAF FORECASTS WILL CONTINUE
PCPN WITH LOW CIGS THROUGH MID MORNING AND THEN IMPROVEMENT IN
AFTERNOON. WILL CONTINUE CHANCE OF TSTMS IN SOUTH AND EAST SITES.

GOETSCH

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
747 AM CDT THU MAY 8 2008

ILZ040-047-049-050-091300-
CASS-MORGAN-SCHUYLER-SCOTT-
747 AM CDT THU MAY 8 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
ILLINOIS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

OCCASIONAL RAIN WITH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
TODAY...TAPERING OFF BY LATE AFTERNOON.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION AND BRING A
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. THE POTENTIAL
FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL EXIST WITH THIS SYSTEM...SO KEEP ABREAST
OF LATER FORECASTS AS THE SEVERE THREAT BECOMES BETTER DEFINED.

FINALLY...ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE REGION ON TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY...BRINGING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS.

THE ILLINOIS RIVER AT BEARDSTOWN WILL REMAIN ABOVE FLOOD STAGE FOR
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED THROUGH TONIGHT.

ILZ042>046-048-051>057-061>063-066>068-071>073-091300-
CHAMPAIGN-CHRISTIAN-CLARK-CLAY-COLES-CRAWFORD-CUMBERLAND-DE WITT-
DOUGLAS-EDGAR-EFFINGHAM-JASPER-LAWRENCE-LOGAN-MACON-MENARD-
MOULTRIE-PIATT-RICHLAND-SANGAMON-SHELBY-VERMILION-
747 AM CDT THU MAY 8 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
ILLINOIS...EAST CENTRAL ILLINOIS AND SOUTHEAST ILLINOIS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

RAIN AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE DAY
TODAY...HOWEVER SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED. HEAVY RAINFALL
WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT...WITH ISOLATED HEAVY AMOUNS OF UP TO
THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH IN AREAS SOUTHEAST OF A SPRINGFIELD TO
CHAMPAIGN LINE. THE RAIN WILL TAPER OFF BY LATE AFTERNOON.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION AND BRING A
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. THE POTENTIAL
FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL EXIST WITH THIS SYSTEM...SO KEEP ABREAST
OF LATER FORECASTS AS THE SEVERE THREAT BECOMES BETTER DEFINED.

FINALLY...ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE REGION ON TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY...BRINGING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED THROUGH TONIGHT.

ILZ027>031-036>038-041-091300-
FULTON-KNOX-MARSHALL-MASON-MCLEAN-PEORIA-STARK-TAZEWELL-WOODFORD-
747 AM CDT THU MAY 8 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
ILLINOIS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED RAIN AND POSSIBLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE THE MAIN
THREAT THIS MORNING. THE RAIN WILL CLEAR OUT BY AFTERNOON.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION AND BRING A
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. THE POTENTIAL
FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL EXIST WITH THIS SYSTEM...SO KEEP ABREAST
OF LATER FORECASTS AS THE SEVERE THREAT BECOMES BETTER DEFINED.

FINALLY...ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE REGION ON TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY...BRINGING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED THROUGH TONIGHT.

GOETSCH