Wind Chill Advisory 3, NWS Wilmington, OH

Fayette County, IN, Union County, IN, Wayne County, IN, Auglaize County, OH, Champaign County, OH, Clark County, OH, Darke County, OH, Delaware County, OH, Fairfield County, OH, Fayette County, OH, Franklin County, OH, Greene County, OH, Hardin County, OH, Licking County, OH, Logan County, OH, Madison County, OH, Mercer County, OH, Miami County, OH, Montgomery County, OH, Pickaway County, OH, Preble County, OH, Shelby County, OH, Union County, OH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
1250 AM EST SAT FEB 9 2008

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION SATURDAY
NIGHT. THIS WILL USHER IN AN ARCTIC AIR MASS FOR THE LATTER PART
OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
MIDLEVEL SHORTWAVE BRINGING WIDESPREAD MID CLOUDS INTO THE
REGION..AND SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS IL/IN. MOST OF
THIS ACTIVITY IS FOCUSED ALONG AND NORTH OF THE I-70
CORRIDOR...AND THIS SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE THE CASE OVERNIGHT AS IT
MOVES INTO OHIO. WITH THICKENING CLOUDS AND SRLY WINDS...TEMPS
SHOULD BE SLOW TO FALL OVERNIGHT. BUMPED TEMPS UP SLIGHTLY
AREAWIDE...WHICH SHOULD KEEP PRECIP TYPE AS ALL RAIN OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
WILL STILL HAVE A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS IN THE MORNING IN THE
EASTERN ZONES AS THE COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO PROGRESS ACROSS THE
AREA. THERE SHOULD BE A BRIEF BREAK BEFORE THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS
APPROACHES WESTERN AREAS LATER IN THE AFTERNOON AHEAD OF AN
ARCTIC FRONT. THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE ENTIRE
REGION AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. EXPECT TO HAVE
RAIN SHOWERS CHANGING TO SNOW SHOWERS BEFORE ENDING. WINDS WILL
BECOME STRONG AND GUSTY IN THE COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE
FRONT. APPEARS THAT WINDS WILL BE NEAR WIND ADVISORY THRESHOLDS
LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. ALSO EXPECT THE COMBINATION OF
WIND AND FALLING TEMPERATURES TO RESULT IN CONDITIONS NEAR WIND
CHILL ADVISORY CRITERIA IN THE NORTHWEST ZONES. AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN WINDS WILL DIMINISH LATE SUNDAY AND BECOME LIGHT SUNDAY
NIGHT. FORECAST TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO BE AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW
MOS GUIDANCE.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST OF THE
REGION.

LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...THE GFS AND ECMWF REMAIN AT ODDS WITH THE
POSITION OF A DEVELOPING SYSTEM OVER THE PLAINS.  THE 12Z GFS HAS
THE LOW PUSHING INTO THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES AT 12Z TUESDAY...WHILE
THE LATEST ECMWF HAS IT OVER SOUTHERN OHIO AND KY.

EITHER WAY...PCPN IS LIKELY...WITH SNOW/WINTRY MIX IN THE
NORTH...PARTICULARLY WITH THE ECMWF. THERE HAS BEEN QUITE A BIT OF
RUN TO RUN VARIABILITY WITH EACH MODEL.

ALTHOUGH THERE HAS BEEN SOME CHANGEABILITY IN THIS TIME PERIOD AS
WELL...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS AND MOVES EAST OF THE REGION AGAIN
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES EXPECTED.
ANOTHER FRONT BRINGS SCATTERED SNOW/RAIN SHOWERS FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MID LVL CLOUD DECK HAD SETTLED OVER FCST AREA THIS MRNG IN ADVANCE
OF WEAK FRNTL BNDRY. RADAR INDCG BULK OF -SHRA REMAINED TO THE
NORTHWEST OF KDAY. BULK OF THE PCPN WILL STAY NORTH OF THE
TERMINALS THRU DAYBREAK...ALTHOUGH A FEW -SHRA CANNOT BE RULED OUT
AT KDAY/KCMH/KLCK. 2500-3500FT SC WILL DVLP OVER THE NEXT SVRL
HOURS AND LINGER THRU THE MRNG AS THE FRONT PASSES THRU THE
REGION. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO W/SW IN WAKE OF FROPA AND BECOME GUSTY
BY ERLY AFTN AS CLOUDS SCOUR OUT. STRONGER COLD FRONT APPCHS
REGION THIS EVNG...WITH SCT -SHRA DVLPG AT ALL TERMINALS AFT 00Z.
FRNTL BNDRY IS LEADING EDGE OF MUCH COLDER ARCTIC AIRMASS.
INTENSE CAA SETS IN IMMEDIATELY IN WAKE OF FROPA BTWN 04-07Z. VERY
STRONG WESTERLY WINDS WILL DVLP IN CAA AND WILL ADDRESS THIS WITH
12Z TAFS.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS POSSIBLE SAT NIGHT AND SUNDAY...AND
AGAIN ON TUESDAY. STRONG GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...HAWBLITZEL
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...RYAN

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
442 PM EST FRI FEB 8 2008

INZ050-058-059-OHZ026-034-035-042>045-051>053-060-061-091015-
WAYNE-FAYETTE IN-UNION IN-HARDIN-MERCER-AUGLAIZE-DARKE-SHELBY-LOGAN-
UNION OH-MIAMI-CHAMPAIGN-CLARK-PREBLE-MONTGOMERY-
442 PM EST FRI FEB 8 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL
INDIANA...CENTRAL OHIO...MIAMI VALLEY OF OHIO AND WEST CENTRAL OHIO.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

FLOODING CONTINUES ALONG SOME RIVERS ACROSS THE REGION. PLEASE
REFER TO FLOOD WARNINGS AND FLOOD STATEMENTS FOR THE LATEST
INFORMATION.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

STRONG WINDS WILL DEVELOP BEHIND A COLD FRONT SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS
MAY RESULT IN WIND GUSTS NEAR 45 MPH. IN ADDITION...THE
COMBINATION OF WINDS AND FALLING TEMPERATURES MAY RESULT IN WIND
CHILL READINGS AROUND 10 BELOW ZERO LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY
MORNING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

INZ066-073>075-080-KYZ089>100-OHZ046-054>056-062>065-070>074-077>082-
088-091015-
FRANKLIN IN-RIPLEY-DEARBORN-OHIO-SWITZERLAND-CARROLL-GALLATIN-BOONE-
KENTON-CAMPBELL-OWEN-GRANT-PENDLETON-BRACKEN-ROBERTSON-MASON-LEWIS-
DELAWARE-MADISON-FRANKLIN OH-LICKING-GREENE-FAYETTE OH-PICKAWAY-
FAIRFIELD-BUTLER-WARREN-CLINTON-ROSS-HOCKING-HAMILTON-CLERMONT-BROWN-
HIGHLAND-ADAMS-PIKE-SCIOTO-
442 PM EST FRI FEB 8 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST INDIANA...NORTHEAST
KENTUCKY...NORTHERN KENTUCKY...CENTRAL OHIO...MIAMI VALLEY OF
OHIO...SOUTH CENTRAL OHIO AND SOUTHWEST OHIO.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

FLOODING CONTINUES ALONG SOME RIVERS ACROSS THE REGION. PLEASE
REFER TO FLOOD WARNINGS AND FLOOD STATEMENTS FOR THE LATEST
INFORMATION.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

STRONG WINDS WILL DEVELOP BEHIND A COLD FRONT SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS
MAY RESULT IN WIND GUSTS NEAR 45 MPH.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.