Severe Thunderstorm Warning 56, NWS Wilmington, OH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
719 PM EDT TUE JUN 3 2008

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY AND STALL NORTH OF
THE INTERSTATE 70 CORRIDOR OVERNIGHT AND TOMORROW. AN UPPER LEVEL
WAVE WILL MOVE EAST OVERNIGHT AND EARLY ON WEDNESDAY. THE BOUNDARY
THAT WILL LINGER NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE WILL LIFT THROUGH THE
GREAT LAKES REGION ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY AS A WARM FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL MIDNIGHT TONIGHT/...
ANOTHER UPDATE TO THE FORECAST AS MENTIONED EARLIER TO REMOVE
REMAINDER OF THE WATCHES WITH STABLE AIR WORKING IN BEHIND
REMNANTS OF BOW ECHO. STILL KEPT POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE OVER NRN
CWA AFTER MIDNIGHT WHEN ANY FUTURE DEVELOPMENT MAY BE WORKING
INTO THE AREA ALONG THE WARM FRONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MIDNIGHT TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
A WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LAY OUT ALONG AND N OF THE I-70
CORRIDOR AND REMAIN A THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS TO BE PRODUCED IN
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. KEPT A CHANCE FOR SEVERE IN THIS AREA
THROUGH WED MORNING. THE THREAT AREA WILL QUICKLY MOVE E AHEAD OF
THE UPPER TROUGH AND ANY RAIN SHOULD TAPER OFF IN THE
AFTERNOON...POSSIBLY EARLY EVENING OVER CENTRAL OHIO.

UPPER FORCING EXITS OHIO VALLEY AND THE BOUNDARY N OF THE
INTERSTATE WILL LIFT NE AS A WARM FRONT OVERNIGHT WED AND INTO
THURS. HUMID CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST BEHIND THIS FRONT FOR MOST OF
THE REGION DURING THE SHORT TERM OF THE FORECAST.

TEMPS WERE ONLY BUMPED A DEGREE OR SO OVER THE NEXT 36
HOURS...NOTHING SIGNIFICANT. DEWPOINTS WERE RAISED A LITTLE IN THE
LATTER PART OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
UPPER RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE REGION ON THURSDAY WHICH BRINGS DRY
CONDITIONS AND WARMING TEMPS INTO THE LOWER 90S THROUGH FRIDAY. COLD
FRONT ADVANCES EASTWARD ACROSS THE MS VALLEY LATE FRIDAY AS AN UPPER
WAVE PASSES THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES.  LOOKS LIKE THE FRONT WILL HAVE
A TOUGH TIME MAKING IT THIS FAR EAST WITH THE STRONG RIDGE IN PLACE.
KEPT CHANCE POPS FRI NIGHT AND SATURDAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT...HIGHEST
ACROSS THE NORTHWEST WHICH WILL BE CLOSER TO THE BOUNDARY AND UPPER
ENERGY. UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE EASTERN US THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED WITH CONTINUED ABOVE AVG TEMPS.  SHOULD BE
GENERALLY DRY...THOUGH ISOLD DIURNAL STORMS ARE
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN FA WHICH WILL
BE CLOSER TO THE PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AIRMASS IS IN THE PROCESS OF RE-DESTABILIZING ACROSS THE AREA LATE
THIS AFTERNOON IN WAKE OF EARLIER CONVECTION. WARMER AIR IS
SURGING UP FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND DEWPOINTS ARE CREEPING UP INTO
THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S. THIS HAS HELPED THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP RAPIDLY IN THE PAST HOUR ALONG BOUNDARY STRETCHING FROM
EAST CENTRAL INDIANA INTO SOUTH CENTRAL OHIO. THESE WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE TO TRACK EAST ACROSS THE KILN AND POSSIBLY THE KDAY TAF
SITES THROUGH THE FIRST COUPLE OF HOURS OF THE TAF PERIOD. EXPECT
TO SEE MORE WIDESPREAD DEVELOPMENT LATER THIS EVENING BACK ACROSS
ILLINOIS AND INTO INDIANA AS LOW LEVEL JET BEGINS TO INCREASE.
THESE STORMS WILL LIKELY TRACK EAST SOUTHEAST ALONG DEVELOPING
INSTABILITY BOUNDARY. GIVEN CONDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT AND
UNCERTAINTY IN EXACT TRACK THOUGH...WILL HANDLE TAFS WITH A VCTS
THROUGH MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. THIS WILL HAVE TO BE FINE
TUNED ONCE WE SEE IF/WHEN/WHERE DEVELOPMENT OCCURS BACK TO OUR
WEST LATER THIS EVENING. WILL THEN ALLOW FOR A BREAK THROUGH LATE
MORNING BEFORE TSTM THREAT RETURNS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS
AIRMASS DESTABILIZES ONCE AGAIN.

OUTLOOK...TSTMS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...WITH
POTENTIAL FOR MVFR CIGS/VIS IN TSTMS...ALONG WITH GUSTY WINDS.
&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...FRANKS
NEAR TERM...FRANKS
SHORT TERM...FRANKS
LONG TERM...HAWBLITZEL
AVIATION...JGL

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
601 PM EDT TUE JUN 3 2008

INZ073>075-080-KYZ089>100-OHZ077>082-088-042215-
RIPLEY-DEARBORN-OHIO-SWITZERLAND-CARROLL-GALLATIN-BOONE-KENTON-
CAMPBELL-OWEN-GRANT-PENDLETON-BRACKEN-ROBERTSON-MASON-LEWIS-HAMILTON-
CLERMONT-BROWN-HIGHLAND-ADAMS-PIKE-SCIOTO-
601 PM EDT TUE JUN 3 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST INDIANA...NORTHEAST
KENTUCKY...NORTHERN KENTUCKY...SOUTH CENTRAL OHIO AND SOUTHWEST
OHIO.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW. A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL LAY OUT WEST TO EAST OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND LIFT
NORTHWARD TONIGHT. THIS WILL PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO REDEVELOP OVERNIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

A THREAT FOR ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST EARLY ON
WEDNESDAY AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS ACROSS THE REGION.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED.

INZ050-058-059-066-OHZ026-034-035-042>046-051>056-060>065-070>074-
042215-
WAYNE-FAYETTE IN-UNION IN-FRANKLIN IN-HARDIN-MERCER-AUGLAIZE-DARKE-
SHELBY-LOGAN-UNION OH-DELAWARE-MIAMI-CHAMPAIGN-CLARK-MADISON-
FRANKLIN OH-LICKING-PREBLE-MONTGOMERY-GREENE-FAYETTE OH-PICKAWAY-
FAIRFIELD-BUTLER-WARREN-CLINTON-ROSS-HOCKING-
601 PM EDT TUE JUN 3 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL
INDIANA...SOUTHEAST INDIANA...CENTRAL OHIO...MIAMI VALLEY OF
OHIO...SOUTHWEST OHIO AND WEST CENTRAL OHIO.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LAY OUT WEST TO EAST OVER THE OHIO VALLEY
AND LIFT NORTHWARD TONIGHT. THIS WILL PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO REDEVELOP OVERNIGHT. SOME OF THESE STORMS MAY
BECOME SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

A THREAT FOR ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST EARLY ON
WEDNESDAY AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS ACROSS THE REGION.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
514 PM EDT TUE JUN 03 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0320 PM     TSTM WND DMG     4 S DILLSBORO           38.96N 85.06W
06/03/2008                   DEARBORN           IN   AMATEUR RADIO

            NUMEROUS LARGE TREES DOWN.

&&

JDR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
521 PM EDT TUE JUN 03 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0320 PM     TSTM WND DMG     2 W FARMERS RETREAT     38.98N 85.14W
06/03/2008                   RIPLEY             IN   AMATEUR RADIO

            LARGE PORCH DESTROYED AND LARGE TREES UPROOTED AND
            CARPORT OFF FOUNDATION AND THROWN SEVERAL YARDS

&&

JDR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
533 PM EDT TUE JUN 03 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0328 PM     TSTM WND DMG     RISING SUN              38.95N 84.86W
06/03/2008                   OHIO               IN   TRAINED SPOTTER

            NUMEROUS TREES AND LIMBS DOWN.

&&

HATZOS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
604 PM EDT TUE JUN 03 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0507 PM     TSTM WND DMG     1 S VANCEBURG           38.58N 83.32W
06/03/2008                   LEWIS              KY   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            TREES DOWN.

&&

SFH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
618 PM EDT TUE JUN 03 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0400 PM     TSTM WND DMG     BUTLER                  38.79N 84.37W
06/03/2008                   PENDLETON          KY   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            TREES DOWN.

&&

SFH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
634 PM EDT TUE JUN 03 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0454 PM     TSTM WND DMG     ORANGEBURG              38.57N 83.69W
06/03/2008                   MASON              KY   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            TREES DOWN.

&&

SFH