Severe Thunderstorm Warning 261, NWS Wilmington, OH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
413 PM EDT FRI AUG 29 2008

.SYNOPSIS...
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING AS A COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD INTO
THE REGION FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
COLD FRONT CURRENTLY PUSHING INTO NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF OUR FA.
AHEAD OF THIS...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED
ACROSS MAINLY THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF OUR FA THIS AFTERNOON. AS
WE LOSE DAYTIME HEATING AND FRONT MOVES THROUGH OUR AREA THIS
EVENING...WILL ALLOW FOR A 30 POP TO SLOWLY TAPER OFF FROM THE
NORTHWEST. SKIES SHOULD THEN BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT.
&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
MID LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BUILD EAST ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH
SUNDAY. A LITTLE BIT OF LINGERING MOISTURE ACROSS OUR SOUTH COULD
LEAD TO A FEW MORE CLOUDS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER ON
SATURDAY...BUT ALL IN ALL EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY/MOSTLY CLEAR
CONDITIONS THROUGH MUCH OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. AS HEIGHTS BEGIN
TO RISE...SHOULD SEE A BIT OF A WARMING TREND SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY SO WENT AT OR A LITTLE BIT ABOVE GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS.
&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH DOMINANT UPPER RIDGE BUILDING INTO
THE EASTERN U.S. ON SUNDAY AND KEEPING ITS HOLD OVER THE REGION
THROUGH MIDWEEK.  THIS WILL KEEP TEMPS WELL ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH
THE PERIOD WHILE CONDITIONS REMAIN DRY.  WENT ABOVE GUIDANCE FOR
TEMPS TOWARD TUES AND WEDS AS SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS TO THE
EAST...BRINGING IN WARM SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW.  INCREASING 850 MB TEMPS
ARE SUPPORTIVE OF HIGHS IN THE LOWER 90S ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN
HALF OF THE CWA BY TUESDAY.  NEXT SYSTEM OF INTEREST ENTERS THE
PICTURE LATE IN THE EXTENDED AS THE UPPER RIDGE FLATTENS AND A COLD
FRONT MOVES INTO THE GREAT LAKES.  SIDED WITH THE SLOWER ECMWF
KEEPING THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO THE NORTH OF THE CWA THROUGH
THURSDAY...SO DID NOT INTRODUCE POPS AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORTWAVE ENERGY TO PASS THRU THE GREAT LAKES IN THE WESTERLIES
TDA/TNGT. COLD FRONT CURRENTLY FROM NW OHIO THRU EASTERN INDIANA
TO PUSH EAST THRU THE TAF SITES LATE THIS AFTN/EVENING. FCST
SOUNDINGS INDICATE A CAP IS IN PLACE THRU LATER THIS AFTN. GFS
WHICH IS TOO HIGH WITH SFC DEWPOINTS IS THEREFORE OVERDONE WITH
2500 J/KG BOUNDARY LYR CAPE DEVELOPING THIS AFTN. PREFER NAM
SOLN WHICH HAS A BETTER HANDLE ON LOW LEVEL TD/S AND DEVELOPS
BOUNDARY LAYER CAPES AROUND 1500 J/KG. AS FRONT APPROACHES WEAK
LOW LEVEL FORCING COMES INTO PLAY. THIS FORCING...ALONG WITH
THE INSTBY SHUD LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCTD THUNDERSTORMS.
DUE TO THE LIMITED COVERAGE HAVE ONLY MENTIONED VCTS AT THIS
TIME. WITH LIGHT WINDS AND CLEARING TONIGHT THE DEVELOPMENT OF
FOG WL BE A POSSIBILITY. HAVE A MENTION OF MVFR VSBY RESTRICTIONS
AT ALL BUT KDAY WHERE DRIER AIR IS EXPECTED.

OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IS EXPECTED.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...JGL
NEAR TERM...JGL
SHORT TERM...JGL
LONG TERM...RYAN
AVIATION...AR

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
416 PM EDT FRI AUG 29 2008

INZ050-058-059-066-073>075-080-KYZ089>100-OHZ026-034-035-042>046-
051>056-060>065-070>074-077>082-088-302030-
WAYNE-FAYETTE IN-UNION IN-FRANKLIN IN-RIPLEY-DEARBORN-OHIO-
SWITZERLAND-CARROLL-GALLATIN-BOONE-KENTON-CAMPBELL-OWEN-GRANT-
PENDLETON-BRACKEN-ROBERTSON-MASON-LEWIS-HARDIN-MERCER-AUGLAIZE-DARKE-
SHELBY-LOGAN-UNION OH-DELAWARE-MIAMI-CHAMPAIGN-CLARK-MADISON-
FRANKLIN OH-LICKING-PREBLE-MONTGOMERY-GREENE-FAYETTE OH-PICKAWAY-
FAIRFIELD-BUTLER-WARREN-CLINTON-ROSS-HOCKING-HAMILTON-CLERMONT-BROWN-
HIGHLAND-ADAMS-PIKE-SCIOTO-
416 PM EDT FRI AUG 29 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL
INDIANA...SOUTHEAST INDIANA...NORTHEAST KENTUCKY...NORTHERN
KENTUCKY...CENTRAL OHIO...MIAMI VALLEY OF OHIO...SOUTH CENTRAL
OHIO...SOUTHWEST OHIO AND WEST CENTRAL OHIO.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
409 PM EDT FRI AUG 29 2008

KYZ091-292115-
BOONE KY-
409 PM EDT FRI AUG 29 2008

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT BOONE COUNTY THROUGH 515 PM
EDT...

AT 406 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM LOCATED NEAR HUEYS CORNERS...MOVING EAST AT 9
MPH.

THIS STORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SMALL HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO
50 MPH.

SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL BE AFFECTED BY THIS STORM INCLUDE...HUEYS
CORNERS...BURLINGTON...BEAVERLICK...OAKBROOK...VERONA...UNION...
FLORENCE...RICHWOOD AND WALTON.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING WILL ALSO OCCUR. MOVE INDOORS
IMMEDIATELY LIGHTNING IS ONE OF NATURES LEADING KILLERS. REMEMBER...
IF YOU CAN HEAR THUNDER...YOU ARE CLOSE ENOUGH TO BE STRUCK BY
LIGHTNING.

THIS STORM WILL ALSO BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING VERY HEAVY RAIN...WHICH
MAY FLOOD ROADS...DITCHES AND LOW LYING AREAS. DO NOT DRIVE INTO
PLACES WHERE WATER COVERS THE ROAD AND AVOID FLOOD PRONE AREAS.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
445 PM EDT FRI AUG 29 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0442 PM     HAIL             2 S FRANCISVILLE        39.08N 84.73W
08/29/2008  E0.75 INCH       BOONE              KY   TRAINED SPOTTER

            I-275 AND ST ROUTE 237 INTERCHANGE

&&